Muh Polls

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Captn_Ag05
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8:51a, 9/22/24
AG
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Prosperdick
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 8:58a, 9/22/24
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Question about methodology: how do the polls determine if someone is a likely voter or not? Is it as simple as asking "are you registered to vote, and how likely are you to vote in the upcoming election?" Do they do any due diligence to check responders' history of participation?
I can only give you my personal experience with Ipsos. When they USED to poll me about the election, earlier this year and back in 2022, they always asked "Are you registered and going to vote in the upcoming election?" When I selected yes they ALWAYS followed up with "Are you 100% certain that you are registered?"

Once again, I'm still waiting to be polled for the election now that it's Harris vs Trump. I'm not holding my breath.
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M-K-TAG
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9:10a, 9/22/24
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Captn_Ag05
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9:49a, 9/22/24
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Captn_Ag05
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11:04a, 9/22/24
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whatthehey78
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11:06a, 9/22/24
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Faith in Polls...NONE!
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rathAG05
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11:11a, 9/22/24
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Man, that debate really hurt Trump. He tends to hurt himself.
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Rockdoc
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In reply to rathAG05 • 11:17a, 9/22/24
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rathAG05 said:
Man, that debate really hurt Trump. He tends to hurt himself.

I wouldn't put too much faith in those polls posted above. They're being posted for a reason.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Rockdoc • 11:18a, 9/22/24
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I post all polls, favorable to Trump or otherwise. I don't have a "reason."
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pacecar02
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11:19a, 9/22/24
Just 2 days ago those odds had flipped

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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Rockdoc • 11:23a, 9/22/24
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Rockdoc said:
I didn't mention you.
I posted the polls above. You said the polls above were being posted for a reason. If you want to say the polls are biased and have an agenda, cool. But, I am not posting them for any reason. If you follow my posting history at all, you'd know any poll showing a liberal leading is a disappointment to me.

When polls are positive for Trump no one says anything, but when I post polls that show him losing some of y'all *****. I post them all, good bad, and ugly.

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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 11:31a, 9/22/24
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Waffledynamics said:
Question about methodology: how do the polls determine if someone is a likely voter or not? Is it as simple as asking "are you registered to vote, and how likely are you to vote in the upcoming election?" Do they do any due diligence to check responders' history of participation?
It depends on the pollster. Some just ask about certainty to vote. Internal pollsters that are more well-funded will typically dig further asking about voting history, does their immediate family vote, do they know the election day, how do they plan to vote (in-person early or day of, by mail), do they know where their voting location is, and even who is their member of Congress.

One thing about polls this year that is going to be different than other years, IMO, is that Trump is going to do better in RV polls vs. likely voter polls. Trump is doing well with low propensity voters. Think the off the grid, blue collar worker in Michigan. They are going to be screened out of many likely voter screens because of their lack of voting in the past. But, the Trump campaign think they will turn out this time - and they hope they do, because this group is overwhelmingly pro-Trump.
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Philip J Fry
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11:39a, 9/22/24
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If polls work anything like the market, Harris is at the top of her support and will start coming back down over the next week.
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pacecar02
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In reply to SA68AG • 12:17p, 9/22/24
Both candidates are near their peak support and the race is and will be close

I don't have much faith in the swings either way.

All the presidential races since 2016 have been very close, that makes polling bonkers. Results swinging based on the exact 500 or 2000 individuals polled.

55 vs 45 is a load easer to track that 50 vs 50



I would love to see a postmortem with the candidates internal polling vs these national polls when everything is said and done
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Barnyard96
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In reply to IDaggie06 • 12:41p, 9/22/24
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1:28p, 9/22/24
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aggiehawg
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1:53p, 9/22/24
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In a razor thin tight race in PA, how much of a role do the Amish play?





Read that whole Pressler post.
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1939
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5:22p, 9/22/24
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National polls are pointless, All that matters is state polls.

Highly likely these two that came out from NBC and CBS are meant to shape opinion not measure it.

As far s project 2025 is concerned I guarantee nobody knows what it is.
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Barnyard96
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5:50p, 9/22/24
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Science Denier
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 6:15p, 9/22/24
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Barnyard96 said:



Isn't Virginia close? Shouldn't that be added to the list?
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Barnyard96
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In reply to Science Denier • 6:31p, 9/22/24
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IDaggie06
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In reply to Science Denier • 6:45p, 9/22/24
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Science Denier said:
Barnyard96 said:



Isn't Virginia close? Shouldn't that be added to the list?


Thats like liberals saying Florida is close. Zero chance Trump wins Virginia
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Quo Vadis?
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5:34a, 9/23/24


Good polls for Trump in the must have AZ, GA, NC races
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to aggiehawg • 5:35a, 9/23/24
The conventional wisdom is that any small polling victories by the Dems in Pa will be offset by the Amish who vote nearly 100% Republican and do not show up in any polls due to their lack of technology.
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nortex97
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 6:33a, 9/23/24
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Tucker and JD were in Hershey last night (can find on whatever service you wish).



'Minority' voters are definitely significantly more in Trump's column than Hillary or Biden's.

I'd like to see the cross tabs on the Sienna AZ poll in particular. A five point shift like this seems tough to believe.



Edit, I had a duplicate x post somehow.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:37a, 9/23/24
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That is a 10 point swing in AZ. That just seems crazy to me.
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Captn_Ag05
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7:49a, 9/23/24
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 8:08a, 9/23/24
AG
From that thread, context as to why the GOP numbers look great here (and in PA):



Link to their data:



In the cross-tabs for Arizona, Harris is getting crushed in the white vote (white/hispanic/black rows, respectively, I don't get how they are breaking this down): I see 71:59 percent and really can't figure out what form of math/statistics they are using.


Maybe someone can explain this?
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Captn_Ag05
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8:35a, 9/23/24
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Edited: look at this favorable breakdown among independents

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SwigAg11
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 8:58a, 9/23/24
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Captn_Ag05 said:


Edited: look at this favorable breakdown among independents


I'm guessing there are just many more democrats in MN to overcome the republicans + independents (at least in the polls)?
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oh no
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 9:05a, 9/23/24
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SwigAg11 said:

I'm guessing there are just many more democrats in MN to overcome the republicans + independents (at least in the polls)?
I think so. One very progressive urban area and the rest of the state, as Tim Walz said, is mostly just rocks and cows.
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Captn_Ag05
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9:21a, 9/23/24
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Captn_Ag05
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9:22a, 9/23/24
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 9:24a, 9/23/24
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2023NCAggies said:
Captn_Ag05 said:


Expect to hear more Project 2025 from libs over the next 45 days. No matter how much Trump has tried to distance from it.
Why I do not take them serious. Nobody is even talking about project 25, so most of the people asked probably didn't know wtf it was

My wife is from RI and both of her parents (both divorced and remarried) are VERY democrat. I never instigate political discussion as to not start any sort of family drama, but they keep bringing up Project2025. It seems like that is a MAJOR platform for Dems is to attach Trump to that plan, then demonize him for it.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 9:26a, 9/23/24
SwigAg11 said:
That is a 10 point swing in AZ. That just seems crazy to me.
RFK was very popular in Arizona and Nevada. Most of his support is going to go to Trump in those states.

Trump will win Arizona easily
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