2023NCAggies said:

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SwigAg11 said:

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That is a 10 point swing in AZ. That just seems crazy to me.

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RFK was very popular in Arizona and Nevada. Most of his support is going to go to Trump in those states.

Trump will win Arizona easily

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Interestingly, RCP shows Nevada went more towards Harris after RFK Jr. dropped out on August 23rd. Trump was up until that point. Now, things have slightly evened out there with a tie poll by The Hill/Emerson poll from 9/15 - 9/18 (895 LV). RCP aggregate currently shows Harris +0.2.

This really is going to come out to turnout machines in a lot of places.

Waffledynamics said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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SwigAg11 said:

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That is a 10 point swing in AZ. That just seems crazy to me.

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RFK was very popular in Arizona and Nevada. Most of his support is going to go to Trump in those states.

Trump will win Arizona easily

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Interestingly, RCP shows Nevada went more towards Harris after RFK Jr. dropped out on August 23rd. Trump was up until that point. Now, things have slightly evened out there with a tie poll by The Hill/Emerson poll from 9/15 - 9/18 (895 LV). RCP aggregate currently shows Harris +0.2.

This really is going to come out to turnout machines in a lot of places.

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Yeah you're right. Looks like his support went more towards Harris in Nevada. Polling in Nevada this election has been all over the place. This whole election is crazy with polling

Turnout yes. Trump has also invested a substantial amount of campaign funds on vote integrity manpower.

So many intangibles that the polls cant possibly show

Almost all of these represent a movement towards Trump since their last poll.

#New General Election poll - Swing States

Arizona - 🟡 Tie
Florida - 🔴 Trump +5
Georgia - 🔴 Trump +2
N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
Nevada - 🟡 Tie
Michigan - 🔵 Harris +1
Pennsylvania - 🟡 Tie
Wisconsin - 🟡 Tie@RedfieldWilton #D - LV - 9/19

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 23, 2024

Luzerne County PA has flipped!!! Here’s the update county map by voter registration! pic.twitter.com/nqIYfVTdoB

— Keith 🇺🇸🏳️‍🌈🐘 (@KeithbPa) September 23, 2024

#NEW MINNESOTA favorable/unfavorable among INDEPENDENTS

🔴 Trump: 48%-51% (-3)
🔵 Harris: 41%-57% (-16)

MN Star Tribune | Sept. 16-18 | LVs

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 23, 2024

I appreciate all the polls being posted. Some "highly rated" polls have missed badly over the last 8 years. Also, there are huge blocks of polls that all use the same data and just manipulate it differently. Better to see what all is out there then filter it through the opinion of a person/group.

The people assigning the ratings are also biased. They give all of the "conservative" pollsters like Rasmussen, Big Data, and Trafalgur poor ratings. Don't pay attention to the ratings.

This is where so much confusion is coming in. You see data like this along with polls that are all over the place.

I'm half tempted to just stop giving any more attention to the polling at this point.

Edit: After thinking about it some more, I'm not sure if union preference actually equates to how they will cast their vote.

There aren't as many blue collar laborers/union members in PA as there once were.

SwigAg11 said:

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This is where so much confusion is coming in. You see data like this along with polls that are all over the place.

I'm half tempted to just stop giving any more attention to the polling at this point.

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Polls are all over the place because of sample bias, IMO. They over sample "college educated" in those Rust Belt and Sunbelt States.

Even Minnesota is not looking good for Kamala. Not saying she will lose but it looks as if it will be damn close.

I look at it this way. MI is the most independent of the Rust Belt states. But Trump wins PA, he'll win WI.

If Trump wins AZ, he wins NV largely due to the Hispanic vote in both.

But, "Scranton Joe" is not the same as a high caste Hindu "Kanadian Kamala from Kalifornia."

aggiehawg said:

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WOW! Kamala's going to get crushed.

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Is there a real chance Trump takes VA, PA, MI, WI & MN this election cycle?

Trump would probably have to win the popular vote by 5+ and that seems unlikely.

Casual Cynic said:

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Trump would probably have to win the popular vote by 5+ and that seems unlikely.

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It seems least likely with MN. Youngkin has been going around VA saying the internals are showing Trump within 1 point. Could that just be wishful thinking and/or lying?

Casual Cynic said:

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Trump would probably have to win the popular vote by 5+ and that seems unlikely.

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He is already at a disadvantage by the millions in CA and NY in the popular vote. His total margin of victory in all those states combined could be less than 500,000 if he were to pull it off. He can still lose the popular vote and blow Kamala out of the water in the electoral college which it is shaping up to be an electoral landslide for Trump. I am not saying at all this is going to happen, but if enough indys and latinos break his way we could be looking at this scenario. It is just interesting to look at.

People have started to realize what a total moron Harris is. She is a worse candidate than Hilary and that is saying something. MN was really close in 2016.

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Is there a real chance Trump takes VA, PA, MI, WI & MN this election cycle?

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MI and MN both is doubtful. But MI is a weird state. Detroit is practically a ghost town from what it once was but has electoral clout because of numbers. Then again, Trump has the endorsement of the Muslim Mayor in MI, so that might have an effect on the voting totals.

Right now, Virginia is looking very good for Trump.

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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Is there a real chance Trump takes VA, PA, MI, WI & MN this election cycle?

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MI and MN both is doubtful. But MI is a weird state. Detroit is practically a ghost town from what it once was but has electoral clout because of numbers. Then again, Trump has the endorsement of the Muslim Mayor in MI, so that might have an effect on the voting totals.

Right now, Virginia is looking very good for Trump.

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I saw that as well about the latest VA polls, which lead me to believe MN is in play also. obtaining the muslim mayor endorsement is a big deal in Michigan. Trump needs to keep reaching out to the people through podcast, town halls and round table events and of course his rallies.
Harris was a total clown on Oprah. She is not capable of getting in front of people and being real.

#NEW Pennsylvania & Georgia polls

PENNSYLVANIA:
🔴 Trump: 48% (=)
🔵 Harris: 48%

GEORGIA:
🔴 Trump: 50% (+3)
🔵 Harris: 47%

Rasmussen | Sept. 23 | LVs

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 24, 2024

What is the crosstabs on the Amish?

Barnyard96 said:

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What is the crosstabs on the Amish?

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Are the Amish even factored into any polls?

SwigAg11 said:

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Barnyard96 said:

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What is the crosstabs on the Amish?

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Are the Amish even factored into any polls?

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Doubtful. They vote but dod not phones, nor computers, nor TVs.

Not even sure the Census numbers include all of them and the Mennonites, either.

There are an estimated 80,000 Amish in Pennsylvania, which has 8.5 million voters. Doubt there is an Amish voter included in this sample of 600.

Look who took the battleground average lead

Thats the battleground average but i'll take it

Barnyard96 said:

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What is the crosstabs on the Amish?

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A lot of them don't vote anyway. They do not participate in those parts of the "English" world either.

Barnyard96 said:

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Thats the battleground average but i'll take it

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Fixed thank you

AgResearch said:

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Barnyard96 said:

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What is the crosstabs on the Amish?

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A lot of them don't vote anyway. They do not participate in those parts of the "English" world either.

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This. People need to stop expecting the Amish to sway these polls. They aren't a huge force.

SIAP. Gallup on Trump now doing better than Harris with favorable results. This was 4 days ago. This is after everything that's happened the past two months. And the more Walz and Harris talk, the worse it gets. This with 95% or more cover from MSM, not just cover, planned joyful gloating and propping them up.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/650774/favorable-ratings-harris-trump-remain.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_content=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

Duane Patterson with essentially the same analysis I had:

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As for where the race stands there, in 2020, Joe Biden was ahead by 4.5%. Harris is currently leading, but only by 0.7%. The final margin in 2020 was also 0.7%. The error rate was 3.8%. If Kamala's lead is that thin, Trump will end up winning that state and the election, with everything else is just an academic argument as to how big the margin in the Electoral College will end up being.

In North Carolina, Joe Biden was up in 2020 by 0.5%. Today, Donald Trump is up by 0.4%. That means Kamala Harris is almost a full point behind where Biden was in a state where the final margin was Trump +1.34%. Even with the Robinson mess at the gubernatorial level, Trump looks poised to do better than he did four years ago.

Finally, in Georgia, with the new NYT/Siena numbers factored in, Trump was up at this point in 2020 by 1.2%. The final margin was Joe Biden by 0.23%. The miss was 1.43%. Donald Trump is currently sitting on a 2-point lead. The fake accent doesn't seem to be working for Harris as she's behind where Joe Biden was in a state that was decided by just under 12,000 votes.

Rick Klein on ABC's This Week yesterday had this piece of analysis that's endemic with virtually every voting bloc the Democratic Party needs desperately in order to win. Klein reports at how much Harris is losing ground with Latinos.

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Kamala Harris is behind where Joe Biden was with Black voters in 2020. She's behind where Joe Biden was with Latinos in 2020. She's behind where Joe Biden was with Jewish voters. She's behind where Joe Biden was with Labor. She's behind Joe Biden with white, non-educated males. She's behind where Joe Biden was with the military vote.

The polling will continue to bounce around for the next month and then tighten during the final fortnight. But barring an October surprise, Donald Trump is much better positioned to win the Electoral College, and the presidency, in six weeks.

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Battleground average on a map.

The avg doesn't much matter if he's on the wrong side of the wrong combination

The kicker on that map is PA. I think he is actually winning PA and so does at least some of the Harris campaign. Every metric possible in PA is trendin Trump but the total still show Harris up about a point. I think Trump is up 3-5.

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This. People need to stop expecting the Amish to sway these polls. They aren't a huge force.

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Uhmm? Link for that? TIA.

aggiehawg said:

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Is there a real chance Trump takes VA, PA, MI, WI & MN this election cycle?

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MI and MN both is doubtful. But MI is a weird state. Detroit is practically a ghost town from what it once was but has electoral clout because of numbers. Then again, Trump has the endorsement of the Muslim Mayor in MI, so that might have an effect on the voting totals.

Right now, Virginia is looking very good for Trump.

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virginia looks about as good for trump as texas does for harris. there's a reason neither candidate is campaigning there and why there relatively little high quality polling from the state.