Who?mikejones! said:

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Who did they poll for that?

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Says "Morning Consult" on the tweet. Whoever that is.

JayM said:

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nortex97 said:

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The national polls are predictive though, as they are weighted by the huge advantage Dems have in places that don't matter like OR/WA/CA/NY. (GOP margins in Texas/Florida are much tighter.)

We're witnessing the beginning of a 'pulling away' imho; she has to be up 5 or 6 nationally to really have a shot at the battlegrounds, net, and voting is now underway already in a lot of states that do matter.

🚨 Trump pulls a 8-POINT NATIONAL LEAD in Rasmussen's daily tracker pic.twitter.com/otbTyWWomO

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 19, 2024

The vote by mail margins are looking absolutely horrible so far for Dems in places that (could) matter like NC and PA:

Yes, North Carolina is the state where you can genuinely say Democrats ought to be panicking. PA and GA is a bit more nuanced. The shift in NC is so severe, it's worrying. And that's important, as these trends in battlegrounds typically won't isolate. https://t.co/CXiF4U6JfL

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 19, 2024

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Rasmussen is silly. People don't change their minds hour by hour or day by day.

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As Rasmussen explained the other day...

Where is that? Maybe I'll move

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Here are the rest of their senate polls in case you need a good laugh.

NEW: Senate polling by Morning Consult (among likely voters)

Ohio - 🔵 Brown +2
Texas - 🔵 Allred +1
Pennsylvania - 🔵 Casey +9
Maryland - 🔵 Alsobrooks +11
Nevada - 🔵 Rosen +13
Arizona - 🔵 Gallego +14
Michigan - 🔵 Slotkin +14
Florida - 🔴 Scott +4

Source: @cameron_easley…

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 19, 2024

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That's polling is Fing horrible. How TF does RCP let them in the average

Am I the only one that trusts the bigger names like Pew and Gallup more than these other random polls? Perhaps they actually value their brand remaining reputable? I find their poll numbers encouraging

No you are not. Most of the University polls are trash, as I've whined about repeatedly. A good synopsis (well, it's a pretty long piece) is here at hotair from Duane Patterson referencing quite a few polls. My favorite excerpt:

Quote:

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Trump's favorability has gone up from August to September, while Harris' favorability has fallen. Among the independents who don't like either choice, when pushed, they're breaking for Trump because they really, really don't like Harris. According to Gallup, the floor is falling out from under Harris among indies. That's not a winning formula for a national election in a 50/50 country.

Remember that NAACP poll I wrote about on Monday, the one showing Kamala Harris underperforming with Black voters in their survey? NBC reports on a Howard University swing state poll of Black voters, in true NBC fashion - overwhelming support for Kamala Harris. Here's the problem. It's not overwhelming. It's underperforming.

Quote:

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The data, from a new Howard University Initiative on Public Opinion poll of 963 likely Black voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin the seven core battleground states in the election show 82% say they'll vote for Harris, while 12% say they'll vote for former President Donald Trump. Another 5% are undecided, and 1% plan to pick another candidate.

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Much more at the link.

D:R split most pollsters are using the 2020 figures still in their adjusted/weighted results;

Correction the 50% GOP to 46% DEM is Gallup Numbers not PEW Research. The 2020 Election numbers are PEW.

PEW has not released updated numbers since April of this year. Which showed a 5 point shift towards the GOP.

— America First Insight (@AF_Insight) September 19, 2024

To be clear, this is not poll unskewing. It’s rational to assume Harris has gained since the debate and she’s slightly more likely to get 270.

But the question is where the Rust Belt votes vs. the US. In the durable alignment post-Trump it’s 3 points right of the popular vote.

— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) September 19, 2024

Most GOP gains in registration are just transitioning to an era where there’s a 1:1 relationship between partisanship and vote choice. I remember when D+3 was a good environment for the GOP.

That means unaffiliateds in any given reg pool will tend to split like the partisans.

— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) September 19, 2024

Why is she more likely to get to 270?

Yeah, that pretty much ruined my day too.

More likely than she was pre debate

Barnyard96 said:

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Of everything we see on this thread, from good polling to partisan polling to stat noise, this is the most impactful number there is. If this trend continues Harris will be in a lot of trouble.

I googled "presidential election enthusiam poll" and this was page 1

Link
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-kamala-harris-favorability-poll-1956119

Okay, decided to do something similar as my post yesterday where I looked at the National Polling Average as it seemed well received.

This time I decided to look at the same statistics but for the Rust Belt states. I am specifically looking at Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Seeing as everyone believes this where the election will be decided in November. I'm throwing out Minnesota as I don't believe anyone believes it's an actual race there.

Wisconsin:
At the time of the debate, Kamala was +1.8%pts according to the average on RCP average (RealClearPolitics). In the 5 polls released since then, she has a +.8%pt lead. Small sample size, but the polling has not gone her expected way post-debate.

Pre-Debate: Kamala +1.8%
Post-Debate: Kamala +.8%

Michigan:
On Sep 10th, Kamala was +1.2%. With the same 5 polls post debate, she seems to have helped herself out tremendously with her lead growing to 2.2%. So this is a gain of a full 1% from post debate. It's a weird sample of polls as the 5 polls are as follows: (tie, Trump +1, Harris +5, Harris +5, Harris +2). This 1% bump she has received post debate still falls below her national average bump she received of 1.2%, but not by much.

Pre-Debate: Kamala +1.2%
Post-Debate: Kamala 2.2%

Pennsylvania:
There are a lot more polls being done in Pennsylvania than any other state at the moment. At the time of the debate, this was a statistical tie at 47.6% for each candidate. In the 8 polls since the debate (I'm being a little lenient on the Franklin & Marshall poll as it started pre-debate but finished 5 days after the debate) Kamala has a lead of 1.5%. This is above the national average that she gained mentioned earlier of 1.2%.

But let's take a look at these 8 polls. In the 4 polls taken the first week directly following the debate, she had an average lead of 3.75%!! That is a monstrous jump surpassing even Biden's post-debate bump he got in 2020. But just like my post from yesterday, let's take a look at the 4 most recent polls and see if they have the same trend of her losing support the further we get away from the debate performance.

In the 4 most recent polls, they have Trump with a +.75% lead. That's a 4pt swing in favor of Trump in one week's time. That is nuts.

Pre-Debate: Tie
Post-Debate: Kamala +1.5%

1st week following debate: Kamala +3.75%
2nd week following debate: Trump +.75%

Conclusion:
I have no idea when it comes to Pennsylvania. It does seem like Kamala had a bump from the debate but that has quickly subsided both Nationally and in the Rust Belt states. Wisconsin did not have a bump at all with Kamala losing a full 1%, while Michigan seems pretty consistent with her gaining support there by 1%. Pennsylvania has had massive swings to Kamala right after the debate, and then back to Trump in the week following.

The questions is are they bumps or media skews?

2023NCAggies said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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Here are the rest of their senate polls in case you need a good laugh.

NEW: Senate polling by Morning Consult (among likely voters)

Ohio - 🔵 Brown +2
Texas - 🔵 Allred +1
Pennsylvania - 🔵 Casey +9
Maryland - 🔵 Alsobrooks +11
Nevada - 🔵 Rosen +13
Arizona - 🔵 Gallego +14
Michigan - 🔵 Slotkin +14
Florida - 🔴 Scott +4

Source: @cameron_easley…

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 19, 2024

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That's polling is Fing horrible. How TF does RCP let them in the average

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Morning Consult is one of the worst of the nearly universal left-leaning media and university polls.

Amongst the typical problems associated with these polls, is that, as a byproduct of their methodologies, their Republican samples tend to be overrepresented by overeducated and over-credentialed voters. As such, a disproportional large chunk of their Republican samples are made up of Lincoln Project types... who are not exactly very "Trumpy."

Regardless, here's how to actually read these polls to get an accurate look at the state of the race, using Morning Consult as an example.

The first thing to note, in the case of Morning Consult, is that their polls always skew Democrat by about 5.5% on the average, compared to actual election results. That means almost every poll they publish ends up falling well outside their own margins of error compared to the actual election results, and they never (literally 0% of the time) overstate Republican support.

Second, if you want to see what their polls ACTUALY say, you need to do a little math, using their own data as a basis of apples to apples comparisons. Regarding the most recent, relevant data, you can do the comparative math yourself based upon their numbers from the last two national election cycles.

This is by how much they overstated Democrat support in the last two election cycles compared to the actual results.

2022 congressional results: Democrats +7.2
2020 presidential national: Biden +4
2020 Arizona: Biden +2.7
2020 Florida: Biden +10.4
2020 Georgia: Biden +2.7
2020 Ohio: Biden +10
2020 Michigan: Biden +6.3
2020 Minnesota: Biden +2.8
2020 North Carolina: Biden +1.5
2020 South Carolina: Biden +5.5
2020 Pennsylvania: Biden +7.8
2020 Texas: Biden +5.6
2020 Wisconsin: Biden +12.4

As you can see Morning Consult way overstates Democrat support literally ALL OF THE TIME, and they are especially terrible at polling the Midwest. And by the way in their poll for Texas last election... they had Trump and Biden tied, LOL.

If you want to know what their polls REALLY say about this election, therefore, you have to add by how much they missed (above) to Trump's (or Cruz's) current numbers.

That makes Cruz, for example, ahead by 4.6.

And in their current 2024 presidential polls in the crucial rust belts states (Trump wins one of them he wins the election) you have to add to Trump's numbers +6.3 in Michigan, +7.8 in Pennsylvania, and +12.4 in Wisconsin to get an accurate look at the state of the race.

For most of the rest of the media/university polls you will see that their structural Democrat bias is pretty comparable as well, including the ones that heavily utilize the Ipsos panels.

Barnyard96 said:

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The questions is are they bumps or media skews?

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I tend to think bumps, otherwise why not keep the skew going for the 2nd week following the debate.

Common sense leads one to believe that recency bias will skew opinion to the perceived winner of the debate. With the bump subsiding, it leads me to believe that is what is happening as a lot of recent polls have mirrored the pre-debate polls of a statistical dead heat.

Either way, Kamala is polling (even with the week directly following the debate) worse than both Biden and Clinton. You can say that the data shows she is the worst candidate of the three. Which is saying a lot seeing as Clinton might have been the least liked candidate they've ever thrown out there.

The real question is, have the polls finally figured out Trump's support?

They've been off by I believe 2.7% in 2020 and 1.6% in 2016 where they consistently under-polled (is that a word?) Trump support.

If you go back and look at all the 2020 polling, only 1 poll from March 2020 thru Election Day 2020 had Trump with a lead and that was Rasmussen in the 2nd week of September. In fact, there were 14 polls conducted from the beginning of August 2020 thru mid-September that had Biden with a double digit lead and a ton of Biden +8 or +9. Kamala isn't even coming close to that currently. There were 27 polls with Biden +10 or more from mid-September to Election day.

It's a narrative I don't see anyone talking about on the news shows. The swing in favor of Trump statistically is close to 8% (when factoring in average and under-polling) from the polling in 2020. That is absolutely ridiculous and should leave Democrats shaking in their boots.

dreyOO said:

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Am I the only one that trusts the bigger names like Pew and Gallup more than these other random polls? Perhaps they actually value their brand remaining reputable? I find their poll numbers encouraging

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The averages would look a lot better for Trump if there was not a couple outlier polls that are straight garbage. Morning Consult and quinnipiac are Fing dumpster fires and screw the avereages

Hard truth for Harris and Dems is, With these current numbers, Harris loses today. There is literally nothing planned to change the trend toward Trump, so it will be + average nationally for Trump by election. Which means 313-225

Polls look great. Georgia is lost for Harris and NC is almost there

Outlier?

📊 VIRGINIA poll by University of Mary Washington

2-WAY
🟦 Harris: 48%
🟥 Trump: 46%
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FULL FIELD
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟥 Trump: 46%
🟨 RFK Jr: 2%
🟪 Other: 2%
——
Senate
🟦 Tim Kaine (inc): 49%
🟥 Hung Cao: 43%
🟪 Other: 2%
—
Sept. 3-9 | 756 LV | ±3.7%https://t.co/1cseQv3DYe

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 20, 2024

No idea.

Nate Silver has switched to have Kamala as the favorite in his model.

🚨 Harris takes the lead - Silver bulletin

🔵 Harris 51.1% (Chance)
🔴 Trump 48.6% pic.twitter.com/OHRzQwa8o1

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 20, 2024

#New General election poll

🔵 Harris 49% (+4)
🔴 Trump 45%

YouGov (Tracker) #B - 1462 RV - 9/16

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 20, 2024

Twelve national A/B-rated post-debate polls are in:

🔵 ABC/Ipsos: Harris +6
🔵 Reuters/Ipsos: Harris +5
🔵 Yahoo News/YouGov: Harris +4
🔵 TIPP: Harris +4
🔵 Times/YouGov: Harris +4
🔵 Data For Progress: Harris +4
🔵 Angus Reid: Harris +4
🔵 Economist/YouGov:…

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 19, 2024

Barnyard96 said:

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The questions is are they bumps or media skews?

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Good response by legal.

But as a general statement, and I k ow what Vance said the other day and in a limited sense he is right, but intentionally skewing a poll creates outliers that are easy to spot. It doesn't happen nearly as often as some like to believe. Most want to be as accurate as possible.

Legal Custodian said:

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Barnyard96 said:

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The questions is are they bumps or media skews?

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I tend to think bumps, otherwise why not keep the skew going for the 2nd week following the debate.

Common sense leads one to believe that recency bias will skew opinion to the perceived winner of the debate. With the bump subsiding, it leads me to believe that is what is happening as a lot of recent polls have mirrored the pre-debate polls of a statistical dead heat.

Either way, Kamala is polling (even with the week directly following the debate) worse than both Biden and Clinton. You can say that the data shows she is the worst candidate of the three. Which is saying a lot seeing as Clinton might have been the least liked candidate they've ever thrown out there.

The real question is, have the polls finally figured out Trump's support?

They've been off by I believe 2.7% in 2020 and 1.6% in 2016 where they consistently under-polled (is that a word?) Trump support.

If you go back and look at all the 2020 polling, only 1 poll from March 2020 thru Election Day 2020 had Trump with a lead and that was Rasmussen in the 2nd week of September. In fact, there were 14 polls conducted from the beginning of August 2020 thru mid-September that had Biden with a double digit lead and a ton of Biden +8 or +9. Kamala isn't even coming close to that currently. There were 27 polls with Biden +10 or more from mid-September to Election day.

It's a narrative I don't see anyone talking about on the news shows. The swing in favor of Trump statistically is close to 8% (when factoring in average and under-polling) from the polling in 2020. That is absolutely ridiculous and should leave Democrats shaking in their boots.

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Very well said.

Too add to it... here's something else to keep in mind. In 2020 Trump 'lost' the popular vote by 4%, yet only 'lost' the election by around 40,000 ballots combined in 3 states.

While there's no way to know for sure how it will work out this time, a reasonable assumption, therefore, is that Harris probably needs to win the popular vote by 4% nationally to have a better than even chance of winning the Electoral College.

If she wins the popular vote by 3.5%, I think a reasonable assumption would be a tied election, and if she only wins the popular vote by 2.5-3.0% that's probably, by a slim margin, a Trump victory.

And bear in mind... that's not Harris up by that margin in the polls, that what she has to clear in terms of the actual election results.

If you factor in that the polling averages (RCP for example) are even just 2.7% skewed in favor of Harris, that means she probably needs to be ahead in the polling averages by about 5.5-6.0% nationally to have an even shot at winning in the Electoral College.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Twelve national A/B-rated post-debate polls are in:

🔵 ABC/Ipsos: Harris +6
🔵 Reuters/Ipsos: Harris +5
🔵 Yahoo News/YouGov: Harris +4
🔵 TIPP: Harris +4
🔵 Times/YouGov: Harris +4
🔵 Data For Progress: Harris +4
🔵 Angus Reid: Harris +4
🔵 Economist/YouGov:…

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 19, 2024

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Those are not different polls.

The ABC, Reuters, Yahoo, YouGov, and Economist polls all utilize the same data sets, which heavily include opt-in panels of voters that skew overeducated and over-credentialled (meaning more Democratic) compared to the electorate.

Taking the same data sets, their own "pollsters" then weight the polls ever so slightly differently, and they publish them as their own, pretending that they are different polls.

A more accurate and genuine way, for example, for RCP to incorporate these polls into their average would be to average them together and consider then a single poll.

I didn't even look at how the polls did in 2020 and 2016 for the Rust Belt states when it comes to accuracy. And holy crap.

Wisconsin:
2016 - RCP Avg - Clinton +6.5%
2016 - Actual - Trump +.7%

2020 - RCP Avg - Biden +6.7%
2020 - Actual - Biden +.7%

Michigan:
2016 - RCP Avg - Clinton +3.4%
2016 - Actual - Trump +.3%

2020 - RCP Avg - Biden +4.2%
2020 - Actual - Biden +2.8%

Pennsylvania:
2016 - RCP Avg - Clinton +1.9%
2016 - Actual - Trump +.7%

2020 - RCP Avg - Biden +1.2%
2020 - Actual - Biden +1.2%


The polls were off by 6% in Wisconsin in both 2016 & 2020!! Maybe Wisconsin is in play afterall as I just assumed Pennsylvania was the most likely to flip.

Polls were off 3.7% and 1.4% respectively for Michigan and 2.6% and perfect for Pennsylvania. So I would trust Pennsylvania polling numbers way more than Wisconsin currently.

They take these polls then model the turnout (educated guess) They've had it wrong the last 2 cycles, but tell us they have it figured out this time.

Legal Custodian said:

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I didn't even look at how the polls did in 2020 and 2016 for the Rust Belt states when it comes to accuracy. And holy crap.

Wisconsin:
2016 - RCP Avg - Clinton +6.5%
2016 - Actual - Trump +.7%

2020 - RCP Avg - Biden +6.7%
2020 - Actual - Biden +.7%

Michigan:
2016 - RCP Avg - Clinton +3.4%
2016 - Actual - Trump +.3%

2020 - RCP Avg - Biden +4.2%
2020 - Actual - Biden +2.8%

Pennsylvania:
2016 - RCP Avg - Clinton +1.9%
2016 - Actual - Trump +.7%

2020 - RCP Avg - Biden +1.2%
2020 - Actual - Biden +1.2%


The polls were off by 6% in Wisconsin in both 2016 & 2020!! Maybe Wisconsin is in play afterall as I just assumed Pennsylvania was the most likely to flip.

Polls were off 3.7% and 1.4% respectively for Michigan and 2.6% and perfect for Pennsylvania. So I would trust Pennsylvania polling numbers way more than Wisconsin currently.

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And bear in mind those RCP averages also include the more accurate polls like Atlas. If just the media/university polls that get all the attention were included in those numbers it would be even more considerably off than that.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Twelve national A/B-rated post-debate polls are in:

🔵 ABC/Ipsos: Harris +6
🔵 Reuters/Ipsos: Harris +5
🔵 Yahoo News/YouGov: Harris +4
🔵 TIPP: Harris +4
🔵 Times/YouGov: Harris +4
🔵 Data For Progress: Harris +4
🔵 Angus Reid: Harris +4
🔵 Economist/YouGov:…

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 19, 2024

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Yeah, this is really bad. I don't think we can just hand waive away the fact that ALL major polls have her winning, by a comfortable margin. Wish I had y'all's optimism, but by all accounts, Trump is losing.

The two best by a long shot show Trump winning or tied.

The best forecasters in the business are calling this a statistical tie at this point.

That has nothing to do with optimism or slant or anything else. It is a tie ball game late in the 3rd quarter.

Legal Custodian said:

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I didn't even look at how the polls did in 2020 and 2016 for the Rust Belt states when it comes to accuracy. And holy crap.

Wisconsin:
2016 - RCP Avg - Clinton +6.5%
2016 - Actual - Trump +.7%

2020 - RCP Avg - Biden +6.7%
2020 - Actual - Biden +.7%

Michigan:
2016 - RCP Avg - Clinton +3.4%
2016 - Actual - Trump +.3%

2020 - RCP Avg - Biden +4.2%
2020 - Actual - Biden +2.8%

Pennsylvania:
2016 - RCP Avg - Clinton +1.9%
2016 - Actual - Trump +.7%

2020 - RCP Avg - Biden +1.2%
2020 - Actual - Biden +1.2%


The polls were off by 6% in Wisconsin in both 2016 & 2020!! Maybe Wisconsin is in play afterall as I just assumed Pennsylvania was the most likely to flip.

Polls were off 3.7% and 1.4% respectively for Michigan and 2.6% and perfect for Pennsylvania. So I would trust Pennsylvania polling numbers way more than Wisconsin currently.

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For the more visual folks

Hungry Ojos said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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Twelve national A/B-rated post-debate polls are in:

🔵 ABC/Ipsos: Harris +6
🔵 Reuters/Ipsos: Harris +5
🔵 Yahoo News/YouGov: Harris +4
🔵 TIPP: Harris +4
🔵 Times/YouGov: Harris +4
🔵 Data For Progress: Harris +4
🔵 Angus Reid: Harris +4
🔵 Economist/YouGov:…

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 19, 2024

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Yeah, this is really bad. I don't think we can just hand waive away the fact that ALL major polls have her winning, by a comfortable margin. Wish I had y'all's optimism, but by all accounts, Trump is losing.

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Every single one of those polls except for Fox News, NYT Siena, and Atlas/Intel were all completed in the first 3 days after the debate.

The three I mentioned before were completed afterwards.

Just FYI.

EDIT: My mistake, the Atlas/Intel poll was completed within the first 3 days of the poll as well. So all of those would have the bump that the more recent polls have already shown to go away.

Thank you. And just for reference, my numbers were the averages as of election day. While this graphic is as of Today's date in those respective years.

I think Virginia is closer than people think, but probably not this close. I think it is currently a 4-5 point race (which would be a 5+ point shift towards Trump since 2020).