Muh Polls

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Captn_Ag05
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12:34a, 9/19/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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12:36a, 9/19/24
AG
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aezmvp
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In reply to angus55 • 1:06a, 9/19/24
Yeah I don't think he gets that much but if he even sniffs 20% it's totally over.
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nortex97
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6:53a, 9/19/24
AG
JD Vance discusses here the internal polls on both sides (and the notion of using journalists to gain insight to what the other side is seeing). Hint; good news.



He references Tony Fabrizio/battleground polls etc. Somewhat comically, a bit of a defensive response from one:

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nortex97
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7:06a, 9/19/24
AG
Excellent to see:





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Bayou City
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7:33a, 9/19/24
[This thread is a conversation on polls and issues that are directly related. Stop derailing it with personal opinions about Trump's fitness for office, state-by-state electoral math and tradeoffs, and other topics that aren't directly related to polls. Feel free to start a different thread if you want to explore those topics in more depth -- Staff]
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Bayou City
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7:48a, 9/19/24
RCP Battleground Polls 9/19

NC: Trump +.1
AZ: Trump +1.6
GA: Trump +2

NV: Harris +.2
PA: Harris +.7
WI: Harris +1.2
MI: Harris +1.7

Projected result w no toss up: Harris 276 Trump 262

Projected Senate no toss ups: R 51 D 49
"I've lived through some terrible things in my life, some of which have actually happened."

Mark Twain
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Philip J Fry
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7:54a, 9/19/24
AG
Until either get outside the margin of error, it should be considered tied. Nothing has changed.
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nortex97
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 8:13a, 9/19/24
AG
The national polls are predictive though, as they are weighted by the huge advantage Dems have in places that don't matter like OR/WA/CA/NY. (GOP margins in Texas/Florida are much tighter.)

We're witnessing the beginning of a 'pulling away' imho; she has to be up 5 or 6 nationally to really have a shot at the battlegrounds, net, and voting is now underway already in a lot of states that do matter.



The vote by mail margins are looking absolutely horrible so far for Dems in places that (could) matter like NC and PA:

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Silvertaps
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8:19a, 9/19/24
AG
Many thanks to those that have provided and helped explain the poll data coming in daily. It's so easy to get lost in reading them, so the commentary certainly helps.
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Science Denier
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:33a, 9/19/24
AG

[Not doing to derail this thread with conspiracies on voter fraud. Feel free to explore it elsewhere -- Staff]
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Captn_Ag05
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8:54a, 9/19/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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8:55a, 9/19/24
AG
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8:57a, 9/19/24
AG
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ttu_85
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9:04a, 9/19/24
This thing is so tight. Lets be honest, this is going to be a disaster. If these polls are remotely accurate neither side is going to accept the results. If Trump wins this, communist antifa will be hitting the streets and in states controlled by the dems they will do nothing to stop them. Get ready for fire.

Watch Georgia closely, especially urban Atlanta. The polling there is really frightening. If the left hits those streets the R gov, Kemp will hit back, as he has before. That could get very ugly. Mean while Portland and Seattle will just burn as they did in 2020.

I pray these polls widen in favor of Trump just for the safety of people everywhere.
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Hoyt Ag
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In reply to ttu_85 • 9:06a, 9/19/24
AG
ttu_85 said:
This thing is so tight. Lets be honest this is going to be a disaster. If these polls are remotely accurate neither side is going to accept the results. If Trump wins this communist antifa will be hitting the streets and in states controlled by the dems they will do nothing to stop them. Get ready for fire.

Watch Georgia closely. Especially urban Atlanta. The polling there is really frightening. If the left hits those streets the R gov, Kemp will hit back. That could get ugly. Mean while Portland and Seattle will just burn as they did in 2020.

I pray these polls widen in favor of Trump just for the safety of people everywhere.
Exactly why I prefer to live in the town I do. 98% red, but in a blue state. I would hate to live in a large metro on election night or inauguration day.
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aggiehawg
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9:34a, 9/19/24
AG
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Legal Custodian
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10:11a, 9/19/24
AG
According to RealClearPolitics average, Kamala's post-debate bump in polls is at 1.5% right now.

Two weeks leading up to the debate they had Kamala with a 1.1% lead
The ten polls on RCP post-debate she has a 2.6% lead

So that's a 1.5% bump. For reference, in the two weeks following Trump/Biden first debate 4 years ago where Biden was considered the winner, he got a 3.1% point bump and he carried that bump for about 3 weeks until the next debate. After that last debate the polls got a tad bit tighter but still had Biden with a 7% lead going into Election Day.

The first 5 polls right after the debate, Kamala had a 4.2% lead according to the average.

The most recent 5 polls , Kamala has a 1% lead.

So one can assume the initial wave that Kamala got from the debate was very short lived.

In my opinion, the populace watched the debate and were turned off again by Trump being his normal self. But after a week that wore off and people went back to the thinking of "Am I better off now than when I was under a Trump Presidency". Again, that's just my opinion trying to analyze the data.
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agsalaska
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In reply to Legal Custodian • 10:18a, 9/19/24
AG
That's a solid post
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JayM
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:27a, 9/19/24
nortex97 said:
The national polls are predictive though, as they are weighted by the huge advantage Dems have in places that don't matter like OR/WA/CA/NY. (GOP margins in Texas/Florida are much tighter.)

We're witnessing the beginning of a 'pulling away' imho; she has to be up 5 or 6 nationally to really have a shot at the battlegrounds, net, and voting is now underway already in a lot of states that do matter.



The vote by mail margins are looking absolutely horrible so far for Dems in places that (could) matter like NC and PA:

Rasmussen is silly. People don't change their minds hour by hour or day by day.
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Jack Boyette
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In reply to JayM • 10:45a, 9/19/24
JayM said:
nortex97 said:
The national polls are predictive though, as they are weighted by the huge advantage Dems have in places that don't matter like OR/WA/CA/NY. (GOP margins in Texas/Florida are much tighter.)

We're witnessing the beginning of a 'pulling away' imho; she has to be up 5 or 6 nationally to really have a shot at the battlegrounds, net, and voting is now underway already in a lot of states that do matter.



The vote by mail margins are looking absolutely horrible so far for Dems in places that (could) matter like NC and PA:

Rasmussen is silly. People don't change their minds hour by hour or day by day.
They're not polling the same people every day, pal.
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Legal Custodian
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In reply to Legal Custodian • 11:30a, 9/19/24
AG
Legal Custodian said:
According to RealClearPolitics average, Kamala's post-debate bump in polls is at 1.5% right now.

Two weeks leading up to the debate they had Kamala with a 1.1% lead
The ten polls on RCP post-debate she has a 2.6% lead

So that's a 1.5% bump. For reference, in the two weeks following Trump/Biden first debate 4 years ago where Biden was considered the winner, he got a 3.1% point bump and he carried that bump for about 3 weeks until the next debate. After that last debate the polls got a tad bit tighter but still had Biden with a 7% lead going into Election Day.

The first 5 polls right after the debate, Kamala had a 4.2% lead according to the average.

The most recent 5 polls , Kamala has a 1% lead.

So one can assume the initial wave that Kamala got from the debate was very short lived.

In my opinion, the populace watched the debate and were turned off again by Trump being his normal self. But after a week that wore off and people went back to the thinking of "Am I better off now than when I was under a Trump Presidency". Again, that's just my opinion trying to analyze the data.
I guess something changed in the past hour from when I posted the post-debate numbers. I just checked again cause I'm a nerd and now there are 11 post-debate polls but I can't tell which one was added.

Now the numbers are:

Pre-debate: Kamala +1.1%
Post-debate: Kamala +2.2%

First week after debate: Kamala +2.6%
Most recent 5 polls: Kamala 1.6%

Looks like one was added recently but not sure which one.
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Captn_Ag05
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11:50a, 9/19/24
AG


Related to this though, and could impact polling

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Captn_Ag05
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12:09p, 9/19/24
AG
This aligns with the Gallup Party ID Poll from yesterday

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JayM
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In reply to Jack Boyette • 1:03p, 9/19/24
Jack Boyette said:
JayM said:
nortex97 said:
The national polls are predictive though, as they are weighted by the huge advantage Dems have in places that don't matter like OR/WA/CA/NY. (GOP margins in Texas/Florida are much tighter.)

We're witnessing the beginning of a 'pulling away' imho; she has to be up 5 or 6 nationally to really have a shot at the battlegrounds, net, and voting is now underway already in a lot of states that do matter.



The vote by mail margins are looking absolutely horrible so far for Dems in places that (could) matter like NC and PA:

Rasmussen is silly. People don't change their minds hour by hour or day by day.
They're not polling the same people every day, pal.
Thanks my pal, Jack. I'm not eaten up with politics like you are. Fifty something days out and Trump fifty days out in 2016. I think I can early vote on October 15. I will pay attention after that bruh.
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nortex97
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4:54p, 9/19/24
AG


Good analysis imho.
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agsalaska
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In reply to nortex97 • 5:00p, 9/19/24
AG
nortex97 said:


Good analysis imho.
Thats a bold statement, but I'm with him. I think by election day PA will be strong red. I am not strong on Nevada but am sold on PA.
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outofstateaggie
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In reply to agsalaska • 5:11p, 9/19/24
AG
Quote:
Thats a bold statement, but I'm with him. I think by election day PA will be strong red. I am not strong on Nevada but am sold on PA.


Yep, Clark County and the Service Workers Union make Nevada a difficult call.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to nortex97 • 5:11p, 9/19/24
AG
I guess we will see by the end of next week if his prediction starts looking accurate.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to outofstateaggie • 5:15p, 9/19/24
AG
outofstateaggie said:

Quote:
Thats a bold statement, but I'm with him. I think by election day PA will be strong red. I am not strong on Nevada but am sold on PA.


Yep, Clark County and the Service Workers Union make Nevada a difficult call.
Which is why Kamala stole Trump's idea of no taxes on tips.
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TRM
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5:46p, 9/19/24
AG
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aggiehawg
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5:48p, 9/19/24
AG
FWIW.

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TRM
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5:49p, 9/19/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to TRM • 6:06p, 9/19/24
AG
Here are the rest of their senate polls in case you need a good laugh.

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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 6:13p, 9/19/24
Who did they poll for that?
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