Says "Morning Consult" on the tweet. Whoever that is.Who?mikejones! said:
Who did they poll for that?
Says "Morning Consult" on the tweet. Whoever that is.Who?mikejones! said:
Who did they poll for that?
As Rasmussen explained the other day...JayM said:Rasmussen is silly. People don't change their minds hour by hour or day by day.nortex97 said:
The national polls are predictive though, as they are weighted by the huge advantage Dems have in places that don't matter like OR/WA/CA/NY. (GOP margins in Texas/Florida are much tighter.)
We're witnessing the beginning of a 'pulling away' imho; she has to be up 5 or 6 nationally to really have a shot at the battlegrounds, net, and voting is now underway already in a lot of states that do matter.๐จ Trump pulls a 8-POINT NATIONAL LEAD in Rasmussen's daily tracker pic.twitter.com/otbTyWWomO
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 19, 2024
The vote by mail margins are looking absolutely horrible so far for Dems in places that (could) matter like NC and PA:Yes, North Carolina is the state where you can genuinely say Democrats ought to be panicking. PA and GA is a bit more nuanced. The shift in NC is so severe, it's worrying. And that's important, as these trends in battlegrounds typically won't isolate. https://t.co/CXiF4U6JfL
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 19, 2024
Captn_Ag05 said:
Here are the rest of their senate polls in case you need a good laugh.NEW: Senate polling by Morning Consult (among likely voters)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 19, 2024
Ohio - ๐ต Brown +2
Texas - ๐ต Allred +1
Pennsylvania - ๐ต Casey +9
Maryland - ๐ต Alsobrooks +11
Nevada - ๐ต Rosen +13
Arizona - ๐ต Gallego +14
Michigan - ๐ต Slotkin +14
Florida - ๐ด Scott +4
Source: @cameron_easleyโฆ
Much more at the link.Quote:
Trump's favorability has gone up from August to September, while Harris' favorability has fallen. Among the independents who don't like either choice, when pushed, they're breaking for Trump because they really, really don't like Harris. According to Gallup, the floor is falling out from under Harris among indies. That's not a winning formula for a national election in a 50/50 country.
Remember that NAACP poll I wrote about on Monday, the one showing Kamala Harris underperforming with Black voters in their survey? NBC reports on a Howard University swing state poll of Black voters, in true NBC fashion - overwhelming support for Kamala Harris. Here's the problem. It's not overwhelming. It's underperforming.Quote:
The data, from a new Howard University Initiative on Public Opinion poll of 963 likely Black voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin the seven core battleground states in the election show 82% say they'll vote for Harris, while 12% say they'll vote for former President Donald Trump. Another 5% are undecided, and 1% plan to pick another candidate.
Correction the 50% GOP to 46% DEM is Gallup Numbers not PEW Research. The 2020 Election numbers are PEW.
— America First Insight (@AF_Insight) September 19, 2024
PEW has not released updated numbers since April of this year. Which showed a 5 point shift towards the GOP.
To be clear, this is not poll unskewing. Itโs rational to assume Harris has gained since the debate and sheโs slightly more likely to get 270.
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) September 19, 2024
But the question is where the Rust Belt votes vs. the US. In the durable alignment post-Trump itโs 3 points right of the popular vote.
Most GOP gains in registration are just transitioning to an era where thereโs a 1:1 relationship between partisanship and vote choice. I remember when D+3 was a good environment for the GOP.
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) September 19, 2024
That means unaffiliateds in any given reg pool will tend to split like the partisans.
Barnyard96 said:
Morning Consult is one of the worst of the nearly universal left-leaning media and university polls.2023NCAggies said:Captn_Ag05 said:
Here are the rest of their senate polls in case you need a good laugh.NEW: Senate polling by Morning Consult (among likely voters)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 19, 2024
Ohio - ๐ต Brown +2
Texas - ๐ต Allred +1
Pennsylvania - ๐ต Casey +9
Maryland - ๐ต Alsobrooks +11
Nevada - ๐ต Rosen +13
Arizona - ๐ต Gallego +14
Michigan - ๐ต Slotkin +14
Florida - ๐ด Scott +4
Source: @cameron_easleyโฆ
That's polling is Fing horrible. How TF does RCP let them in the average
I tend to think bumps, otherwise why not keep the skew going for the 2nd week following the debate.Barnyard96 said:
The questions is are they bumps or media skews?
The averages would look a lot better for Trump if there was not a couple outlier polls that are straight garbage. Morning Consult and quinnipiac are Fing dumpster fires and screw the avereagesdreyOO said:
Am I the only one that trusts the bigger names like Pew and Gallup more than these other random polls? Perhaps they actually value their brand remaining reputable? I find their poll numbers encouraging
๐ VIRGINIA poll by University of Mary Washington
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 20, 2024
2-WAY
๐ฆ Harris: 48%
๐ฅ Trump: 46%
---
FULL FIELD
๐ฆ Harris: 47%
๐ฅ Trump: 46%
๐จ RFK Jr: 2%
๐ช Other: 2%
โโ
Senate
๐ฆ Tim Kaine (inc): 49%
๐ฅ Hung Cao: 43%
๐ช Other: 2%
โ
Sept. 3-9 | 756 LV | ยฑ3.7%https://t.co/1cseQv3DYe
๐จ Harris takes the lead - Silver bulletin
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 20, 2024
๐ต Harris 51.1% (Chance)
๐ด Trump 48.6% pic.twitter.com/OHRzQwa8o1
#New General election poll
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 20, 2024
๐ต Harris 49% (+4)
๐ด Trump 45%
YouGov (Tracker) #B - 1462 RV - 9/16
Twelve national A/B-rated post-debate polls are in:
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 19, 2024
๐ต ABC/Ipsos: Harris +6
๐ต Reuters/Ipsos: Harris +5
๐ต Yahoo News/YouGov: Harris +4
๐ต TIPP: Harris +4
๐ต Times/YouGov: Harris +4
๐ต Data For Progress: Harris +4
๐ต Angus Reid: Harris +4
๐ต Economist/YouGov:โฆ
Barnyard96 said:
The questions is are they bumps or media skews?
Very well said.Legal Custodian said:I tend to think bumps, otherwise why not keep the skew going for the 2nd week following the debate.Barnyard96 said:
The questions is are they bumps or media skews?
Common sense leads one to believe that recency bias will skew opinion to the perceived winner of the debate. With the bump subsiding, it leads me to believe that is what is happening as a lot of recent polls have mirrored the pre-debate polls of a statistical dead heat.
Either way, Kamala is polling (even with the week directly following the debate) worse than both Biden and Clinton. You can say that the data shows she is the worst candidate of the three. Which is saying a lot seeing as Clinton might have been the least liked candidate they've ever thrown out there.
The real question is, have the polls finally figured out Trump's support?
They've been off by I believe 2.7% in 2020 and 1.6% in 2016 where they consistently under-polled (is that a word?) Trump support.
If you go back and look at all the 2020 polling, only 1 poll from March 2020 thru Election Day 2020 had Trump with a lead and that was Rasmussen in the 2nd week of September. In fact, there were 14 polls conducted from the beginning of August 2020 thru mid-September that had Biden with a double digit lead and a ton of Biden +8 or +9. Kamala isn't even coming close to that currently. There were 27 polls with Biden +10 or more from mid-September to Election day.
It's a narrative I don't see anyone talking about on the news shows. The swing in favor of Trump statistically is close to 8% (when factoring in average and under-polling) from the polling in 2020. That is absolutely ridiculous and should leave Democrats shaking in their boots.
Those are not different polls.Captn_Ag05 said:Twelve national A/B-rated post-debate polls are in:
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 19, 2024
๐ต ABC/Ipsos: Harris +6
๐ต Reuters/Ipsos: Harris +5
๐ต Yahoo News/YouGov: Harris +4
๐ต TIPP: Harris +4
๐ต Times/YouGov: Harris +4
๐ต Data For Progress: Harris +4
๐ต Angus Reid: Harris +4
๐ต Economist/YouGov:โฆ
And bear in mind those RCP averages also include the more accurate polls like Atlas. If just the media/university polls that get all the attention were included in those numbers it would be even more considerably off than that.Legal Custodian said:
I didn't even look at how the polls did in 2020 and 2016 for the Rust Belt states when it comes to accuracy. And holy crap.
Wisconsin:
2016 - RCP Avg - Clinton +6.5%
2016 - Actual - Trump +.7%
2020 - RCP Avg - Biden +6.7%
2020 - Actual - Biden +.7%
Michigan:
2016 - RCP Avg - Clinton +3.4%
2016 - Actual - Trump +.3%
2020 - RCP Avg - Biden +4.2%
2020 - Actual - Biden +2.8%
Pennsylvania:
2016 - RCP Avg - Clinton +1.9%
2016 - Actual - Trump +.7%
2020 - RCP Avg - Biden +1.2%
2020 - Actual - Biden +1.2%
The polls were off by 6% in Wisconsin in both 2016 & 2020!! Maybe Wisconsin is in play afterall as I just assumed Pennsylvania was the most likely to flip.
Polls were off 3.7% and 1.4% respectively for Michigan and 2.6% and perfect for Pennsylvania. So I would trust Pennsylvania polling numbers way more than Wisconsin currently.
Captn_Ag05 said:Twelve national A/B-rated post-debate polls are in:
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 19, 2024
๐ต ABC/Ipsos: Harris +6
๐ต Reuters/Ipsos: Harris +5
๐ต Yahoo News/YouGov: Harris +4
๐ต TIPP: Harris +4
๐ต Times/YouGov: Harris +4
๐ต Data For Progress: Harris +4
๐ต Angus Reid: Harris +4
๐ต Economist/YouGov:โฆ
For the more visual folksLegal Custodian said:
I didn't even look at how the polls did in 2020 and 2016 for the Rust Belt states when it comes to accuracy. And holy crap.
Wisconsin:
2016 - RCP Avg - Clinton +6.5%
2016 - Actual - Trump +.7%
2020 - RCP Avg - Biden +6.7%
2020 - Actual - Biden +.7%
Michigan:
2016 - RCP Avg - Clinton +3.4%
2016 - Actual - Trump +.3%
2020 - RCP Avg - Biden +4.2%
2020 - Actual - Biden +2.8%
Pennsylvania:
2016 - RCP Avg - Clinton +1.9%
2016 - Actual - Trump +.7%
2020 - RCP Avg - Biden +1.2%
2020 - Actual - Biden +1.2%
The polls were off by 6% in Wisconsin in both 2016 & 2020!! Maybe Wisconsin is in play afterall as I just assumed Pennsylvania was the most likely to flip.
Polls were off 3.7% and 1.4% respectively for Michigan and 2.6% and perfect for Pennsylvania. So I would trust Pennsylvania polling numbers way more than Wisconsin currently.
Every single one of those polls except for Fox News, NYT Siena, and Atlas/Intel were all completed in the first 3 days after the debate.Hungry Ojos said:Captn_Ag05 said:Twelve national A/B-rated post-debate polls are in:
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 19, 2024
๐ต ABC/Ipsos: Harris +6
๐ต Reuters/Ipsos: Harris +5
๐ต Yahoo News/YouGov: Harris +4
๐ต TIPP: Harris +4
๐ต Times/YouGov: Harris +4
๐ต Data For Progress: Harris +4
๐ต Angus Reid: Harris +4
๐ต Economist/YouGov:โฆ
Yeah, this is really bad. I don't think we can just hand waive away the fact that ALL major polls have her winning, by a comfortable margin. Wish I had y'all's optimism, but by all accounts, Trump is losing.