Muh Polls

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nortex97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:04a, 9/18/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Reviewed the cross tabs on this one. It has Trump winning independents in Virginia and getting 38% of the black vote there. If those happen, he is not losing Virginia by 10, and possibly would be winning the state.
I remain very skeptical about Virginia. NoVa is absolutely a beast for the Dems, very tough to overcome for the GOP, particularly with Trump. I don't think any other candidate would be doing as well as Trump at the top of the ticket nationally/in the electoral college, but I think the one place he is hurt that 'could have' mattered is in Virginia, where the TDS is absolutely rampant about/around Alexandria etc.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:33a, 9/18/24
AG
nortex97 said:
I agree on the Georgia poll (I think I put that on the 'other' thread). It's really pretty damning for Harris, regardless of the Democrat AJC spin:
Quote:
Just 86% of Democrats and 77% of Black voters back Harris, roughly 10 points below the mark Democrats aim to hit. About 12% of Black voters the most reliable bulwark of Democratic support in Georgia say they haven't made up their minds.

The enthusiasm gap between the two candidates has narrowed, with broad majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents indicating they are excited to support their picks at the polls.

And most voters who have decided say they aren't budging. Fewer than 3% of Georgia voters say there's a chance to change their minds about their choice for president before the election.
Quote:
Georgians remain pessimistic about the national outlook, with nearly two-thirds saying the U.S. is headed down the wrong track. But 58% of Georgians say they expect the economy to improve over the next year.

Economic issues are by far the biggest factor in November to Georgia voters, with 43% listing either the economy and jobs or inflation and cost of living as their top priority. About 18% said preserving democracy was the top priority. Every other issue tallied in the single digits, including immigration (8%), abortion (8%) and public safety (2%).
If she's only getting 80 percent of black voters in Nov. it's over, regardless of their turnout 'machine.' Only 8 percent list abortion/infanticide as their top issue/priority, her main campaign theme.


Trump arguably lost due to a shift in white voters in 2020, and I suspect they will be the important section of cross tabs again this year. Keep an eye on those.
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RulesForTheeNotForMe
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9:38a, 9/18/24
AG
Can someone explain how that YouGov poll isn't wildly biased towards Dems and shouldn't be good news for Dems?

Sample size = 1441 folks
572 Dems (39.7%)
480 Independents (33.31%)
389 Rep (27%)

So Dems +12 in unweighted sample. Then when it includes leaners.

Lean Dems - 715 (+143 independents) or (49.6%)
Independent - 199 (13.8%)
Lean Rep- 527 (+138 independents) or (36.5%)

So with leaners, it's still a +13 dem sample… and Kamala is winning that sample by 4….. that's not good.

Where am I missing something?

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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to RulesForTheeNotForMe • 9:49a, 9/18/24
AG
That is unweighted. Do you have the weighted sample numbers? But, Trump only getting 1% of the Dem sample tells me their unweighted Dem sample is overly liberal, overly urban, and overly educated/credentialed.
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TRM
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11:26a, 9/18/24
AG
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WestAustinAg
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In reply to nortex97 • 11:38a, 9/18/24
AG
nortex97 said:
The polling won't really change now. It's all about turnout.

Charlie Kirk's podcast with Chris Buskirk today (not on YouTube yet, "Turning Trump Supporters into Trump Voters") is great on this (and how the Democrats have, oh by the way, always been much better at this than Republicans). Making sure your electorate turns out is what matters now, when places like Philadelphia will have things like 110 percent turnout for the communists. Buskirk and Kirk are big JD Vance-impact fans, fyi.

Just to add some polling data to this post, as to how disgusting the average Democrat is:

Wrong. Independents are going to move one way or another over next 4 weeks. This will show up. Mostly likely for Trump.
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WestAustinAg
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In reply to RulesForTheeNotForMe • 11:40a, 9/18/24
AG
RulesForTheeNotForMe said:
Can someone explain how that YouGov poll isn't wildly biased towards Dems and shouldn't be good news for Dems?

Sample size = 1441 folks
572 Dems (39.7%)
480 Independents (33.31%)
389 Rep (27%)

So Dems +12 in unweighted sample. Then when it includes leaners.

Lean Dems - 715 (+143 independents) or (49.6%)
Independent - 199 (13.8%)
Lean Rep- 527 (+138 independents) or (36.5%)

So with leaners, it's still a +13 dem sample… and Kamala is winning that sample by 4….. that's not good.

Where am I missing something?

The polling outfits can and do adjust the results when one party is over-represented in the sample. They adjust for party, for race, for wealth, etc. as part of their job. You wont see their adjustments though. That's pretty much a trade secret. Plenty of ways for them to reduce a biased sample or to make it even more one-sided.
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Captn_Ag05
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11:42a, 9/18/24
AG
Wisconsin





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Captn_Ag05
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11:43a, 9/18/24
AG






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Captn_Ag05
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12:29p, 9/18/24
AG


Even weighted it is too Democrat heavy. The Hispanic and black numbers look good for Trump. The number I don't like here is the independents.
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1836er
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:25p, 9/18/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
That is unweighted. Do you have the weighted sample numbers? But, Trump only getting 1% of the Dem sample tells me their unweighted Dem sample is overly liberal, overly urban, and overly educated/credentialed.
That's one of the main problem with almost all of the media polls, especially the ones (which is almost all of them) that primarily buy data sets from others rather than doing their own actually polling.

They might have a solid balance of factors like age, gender, race, income, etc., but what many of them don't have is a good balance between more educated/less educated and more credentialed/less credentialed.

In fact, if you examine the cross tabs of the media polls some of them don't even itemize these factors at all; which are probably the most telling delineators in an election including Donald Trump.

Some might say they're hiding this information for the purpose of putting out purposely skewed polls, but there's another explanation as well.

The highly educated/credentialed voters are easier (and therefore cheaper) to poll. They are more likely to seek out panels to join, more likely to fill out online surveys, and much more likely to answer the telephone and talk the ear off of the person on the other end of the line.

Therefore, the polling firm (being cheapskates) fill their quota of respondents from each demographic group with an overeducated/over-credentialed sample that is not very representative of the voters as a whole and skews Democrat.
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outofstateaggie
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2:29p, 9/18/24
AG
These polls are about narrative, not data.
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SA68AG
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2:42p, 9/18/24
AG
Spin it however you want but when you get into the Harris by 5 range those are bad poll numbers for Trump.
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GoAgs11
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In reply to Teslag • 2:49p, 9/18/24
Teslag said:
SA68AG said:
Spin it however you want but when you get into the Harris by 5 range those are bad poll numbers for Trump.


Yep. It's looking like a solid ass kicking for trump if things don't turn
you really think Harris has a 5 point lead? Poll was conducted with more Dems
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to GoAgs11 • 3:00p, 9/18/24
GoAgs11 said:
Teslag said:
SA68AG said:
Spin it however you want but when you get into the Harris by 5 range those are bad poll numbers for Trump.


Yep. It's looking like a solid ass kicking for trump if things don't turn
you really think Harris has a 5 point lead? Poll was conducted with more Dems
Quinnipiac was ranked THE WORST pollster in 2020. Yes solid ass kicking coming........ ha haha!!

Fact is the polls are looking good for Trump. Ask the Harris Campaign, they'll tell you they'd lose today. So if they are saying that, imagine how much better these polls need to be
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 3:02p, 9/18/24
Man what is your feeling on these tight senate polls? I am so lost with the senate polling, one poll will have "blank" down 10, than the other poll has "blank" down only 2. WTF are we looking at here. I think all 3 rust belts are winnable. Man that would be nice
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 3:36p, 9/18/24
AG
2023NCAggies said:
Man what is your feeling on these tight senate polls? I am so lost with the senate polling, one poll will have "blank" down 10, than the other poll has "blank" down only 2. WTF are we looking at here. I think all 3 rust belts are winnable. Man that would be nice
I think almost all of the senate races will be within 1-2 points of the presidential race. That is why I am pretty confident Republicans flip Ohio and it won't be particularly close.
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Captn_Ag05
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4:40p, 9/18/24
AG

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aggie2812-2
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 5:01p, 9/18/24
AG
I think this is more of an indication of what's going to happen than all these other polls. This is not good for Harris.
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1836er
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5:06p, 9/18/24
AG
Just posting this here to remind folks how bad the university and media polls are at polling, as compared to the genuine pollsters like Atlas and the ones that get labeled "not high quality polls" by the main stream media/polling mafia.

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aggie2812-2
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5:15p, 9/18/24
AG
Crazy swing from Biden to Trump with this union.
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FireAg
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In reply to aggie2812-2 • 5:32p, 9/18/24
AG
aggie2812-2 said:
Crazy swing from Biden to Trump with this union.

If that doesn't tell you the mindset of blue collar folks, even in heavy D areas, I don't know what does…
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SA68AG
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In reply to FireAg • 5:34p, 9/18/24
AG
FireAg said:
aggie2812-2 said:
Crazy swing from Biden to Trump with this union.

If that doesn't tell you the mindset of blue collar folks, even in heavy D areas, I don't know what does…
Men do not care for Harris at all.
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Artorias
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In reply to SA68AG • 5:35p, 9/18/24
AG
SA68AG said:
FireAg said:
aggie2812-2 said:
Crazy swing from Biden to Trump with this union.

If that doesn't tell you the mindset of blue collar folks, even in heavy D areas, I don't know what does…
Men do not care for Harris at all.
This election has been shaping up to be men vs women for a while
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Captn_Ag05
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7:33p, 9/18/24
AG


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aggiehawg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 7:35p, 9/18/24
AG
Fox News pays for the poll but they do not conduct it, is my understanding.

Anyone know who they hire to conduct their polls?
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Captn_Ag05
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7:36p, 9/18/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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7:40p, 9/18/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to aggiehawg • 7:43p, 9/18/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
Fox News pays for the poll but they do not conduct it, is my understanding.

Anyone know who they hire to conduct their polls?


That is correct. They contract with Beacon Research, which is a Democrat firm, and Shaw & Company which is a Republican pollster to conduct the poll for them. This is the first presidential cycle they have worked with them. They fired their 2020 pollster after having larger margins for Biden than what happened.
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GoAgs11
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In reply to Artorias • 7:47p, 9/18/24
Artorias said:
Captn_Ag05 said:



No chance of a 20 point swing in a month
35% favorability with independents but a 20 point swing ok....polling industry is dead
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Captn_Ag05
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7:59p, 9/18/24
AG
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angus55
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 8:02p, 9/18/24
Captn_Ag05 said:


If Trump is polling at nearly 30% black voters. Game over man.
We'll win this war, but we'll win it only by fighting and by showing the Germans that we've got more guts than they have, or ever will have. We're not going to just shoot the sons-of-b******, were going to rip out their living G*******d guts and use them to grease the treads of our tanks. We're going to murder those lousy Hun c********** by the bushel-f****** basket. War is a bloody killing business. You've got to spill their blood or they will spill yours. Rip them up the belly. Shot them in the guts.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 8:11p, 9/18/24
AG
Thanks! That certainly answers a few questions!

Thank you for keeping this thread up to date, as well.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to aggiehawg • 10:07p, 9/18/24
AG
Happy to! Aggie baseball and campaigns/elections are two of my favorite things. Just hoping my political "team" doesn't end up as runner up.
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Captn_Ag05
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10:07p, 9/18/24
AG


Check out the party ID with leaners…
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