Muh Polls

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Captn_Ag05
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9:31a, 9/17/24
AG
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Prosperdick
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10:30a, 9/17/24
AG
I'm still shocked the polling is even close and I get the "not Trump" angle but Harris did nothing as VP and her only real job as border czar she FUBAR'ed. Her team literally copied and pasted Biden's policies to her website so it doesn't get any "more of the same" than that.

It seems there really isn't any enthusiasm behind her at all and it shows in the Nevada restaurant "polling" they performed. I know that's anecdotal but still.
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Silvertaps
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In reply to Prosperdick • 10:49a, 9/17/24
AG
Prosperdick said:
I'm still shocked the polling is even close and I get the "not Trump" angle but Harris did nothing as VP and her only real job as border czar she FUBAR'ed. Her team literally copied and pasted Biden's policies to her website so it doesn't get any "more of the same" than that.

It seems there really isn't any enthusiasm behind her at all and it shows in the Nevada restaurant "polling" they performed. I know that's anecdotal but still.

When I talk to "Harris supporters", it's mostly about how much hate they have for Trump…nothing about policy. It was also mentioned before, many of the younger voters are heavily influenced by influencers…that includes social media, celebrities, etc. Such a strange Idiocracy we live in where so many people can't think for themselves.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Silvertaps • 10:56a, 9/17/24
AG
Quote:

When I talk to "Harris supporters", it's mostly about how much hate they have for Trump…nothing about policy. It was also mentioned before, many of the younger voters are heavily influenced by influencers…that includes social media, celebrities, etc. Such a strange Idiocracy we live in where so many people can't think for themselves.
But those same young voters are being greatly affected by the bad economy. For that reason they may not like Trump but they have a guy feeling their lives were better when he was POTUS. Polling is howing that weakness with that demographic for Harris.
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Captn_Ag05
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11:21a, 9/17/24
AG
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agsalaska
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:48a, 9/17/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:


Yep. She is getting a clear bounce in the polling since the debate.
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aggiehawg
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12:03p, 9/17/24
AG
Anecdotal but????



Is there now such a thing as a shy Kamala voter?
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Rockdoc
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In reply to aggiehawg • 1:12p, 9/17/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
Anecdotal but????



Is there now such a thing as a shy Kamala voter?

Thanks for posting this. I've really wondered about this and since I don't watch lib media I didn't really know if they do the breakfast cafe polls like Fox and Friends do regularly. Now I know those folks know Fox is gonna be there so the diners that particular morning will be vast majority Republican, but wondered what results the liberal shows were getting. I'm beginning to think the majority of these polls we're seeing on a daily basis are just flat out garbage. I think Kamala is not well liked at all.
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Captn_Ag05
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2:01p, 9/17/24
AG
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GenericAggie
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In reply to aggiehawg • 2:02p, 9/17/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
Quote:

When I talk to "Harris supporters", it's mostly about how much hate they have for Trump…nothing about policy. It was also mentioned before, many of the younger voters are heavily influenced by influencers…that includes social media, celebrities, etc. Such a strange Idiocracy we live in where so many people can't think for themselves.
But those same young voters are being greatly affected by the bad economy. For that reason they may not like Trump but they have a guy feeling their lives were better when he was POTUS. Polling is howing that weakness with that demographic for Harris.

Harris voters say, "we like her". "She's nice". They can't typically point to policies across a set of policy buckets including; the economy, foreign policy, the debt problem.

We have really uninformed voters broadly. It's a sad state of our media messaging and lack of transparency.

Debt is the absolute biggest, most important problem. 35T. We are headed towards Japan level problems and potentially hyper-inflation. This is the biggest threat to our republic. It sure the hell isn't "trump is mean".

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Silvertaps
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 2:14p, 9/17/24
AG
Trump was up 3 just less than a week ago with this poll.
Quite the roller coaster.
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Rockdoc
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 2:20p, 9/17/24
AG
Nortex finds polls that favor Trump. You find polls that favor Harris. Kinda funny.
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nortex97
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In reply to Rockdoc • 2:32p, 9/17/24
AG
I have nothing against the other polls/what he posts at all. I have stated and remain skeptical of a lot of the academic schools (Monmouth etc) who put their names on polls though.

Even with the rankings, they often lack any consistency (either cycle to cycle due to student/staff changes or intra-election), imho (and then get their ranking based on a final poll). The daily tracking polls (like Rasmussen) provide a consistency that is different, in that their 5 day average shows a good picture of where the race is, yet it takes a basic comprehension of statistics to get that as the daily can bounce around quite a bit.

The risk of confirmation bias is real, and while I admittedly am heavily pulling for the defeat of the communists, I do try to check out other numbers and respect they are included in aggregators like Nate Silver/RCP etc.
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FireAg
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In reply to nortex97 • 2:44p, 9/17/24
AG
Nate Silver has Trump winning quite handily in the EC count at the moment…which has to be killing Nate Silver…
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Captn_Ag05
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2:52p, 9/17/24
AG
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 3:09p, 9/17/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:


MC's release of the poll results says they conducted this among 11,022 likely voters with an unweighted margin of error of +/- 1%. If I understand right, how would this poll not be credible?
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JayM
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3:16p, 9/17/24
Is there any good news out there for Trump? Latest polls mostly show K in the lead.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 3:17p, 9/17/24
Captn_Ag05 said:


Breakdowns are bad for Harris on this one
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to JayM • 3:19p, 9/17/24
JayM said:
Is there any good news out there for Trump? Latest polls mostly show K in the lead.


Yes. They're trending Trump.
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Silvertaps
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In reply to JayM • 3:29p, 9/17/24
AG
JayM said:
Is there any good news out there for Trump? Latest polls mostly show K in the lead.

The question you ask on the general election polls is how are they doing in the swing states? The bulk of some of the general election data may be coming from very blue states…(NY, Cali, Illinois, etc).
Although Harris may have a small lead nationally, she could be getting beat in the Electoral vote (which seems to be happening currently ).
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Captn_Ag05
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3:42p, 9/17/24
AG
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M-K-TAG
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3:46p, 9/17/24
AG
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will25u
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4:22p, 9/17/24
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GoAgs11
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5:43p, 9/17/24
Morning consult should really be stopped be posted here its not credible
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Captn_Ag05
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5:52p, 9/17/24
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Captn_Ag05
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10:55p, 9/17/24
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nortex97
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 4:52a, 9/18/24
AG
This shift/the GOP seeming to drop by a lot less is not, again, simply an organic thing. Scott Pressler and the GOP writ large in PA have shifted to pushing a ton this cycle for GOP voters to vote by mail early, so it is a reflection of that tactical/strategic change. It's good to see it playing out but it is not on it's on an indicator, imho, of the huge change some are reading into it.





I frankly don't think the race has really shifted this week at all, pretty much because there are so very few persuadable voters left. It's probably Trump +1 nationally, and what the Democrats have mainly done the past 90 days is ramp up their voter motivation/turnout models (via hate/lies).

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will25u
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6:04a, 9/18/24
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to will25u • 6:17a, 9/18/24
will25u said:


The polling is absolutely all over the place
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nortex97
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 7:14a, 9/18/24
AG
The polling won't really change now. It's all about turnout.

Charlie Kirk's podcast with Chris Buskirk today (not on YouTube yet, "Turning Trump Supporters into Trump Voters") is great on this (and how the Democrats have, oh by the way, always been much better at this than Republicans). Making sure your electorate turns out is what matters now, when places like Philadelphia will have things like 110 percent turnout for the communists. Buskirk and Kirk are big JD Vance-impact fans, fyi.

Just to add some polling data to this post, as to how disgusting the average Democrat is:

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Hungry Ojos
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:46a, 9/18/24
Absolutely evil. And they laugh at us when we point out that liberalism is their god.
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Captn_Ag05
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8:51a, 9/18/24
AG
Georgia


National
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Captn_Ag05
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8:54a, 9/18/24
AG
Virginia

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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 8:59a, 9/18/24
AG
Reviewed the cross tabs on this one. It has Trump winning independents in Virginia and getting 38% of the black vote there. If those happen, he is not losing Virginia by 10, and possibly would be winning the state.
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nortex97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:02a, 9/18/24
AG
I agree on the Georgia poll (I think I put that on the 'other' thread). It's really pretty damning for Harris, regardless of the Democrat AJC spin:
Quote:
Just 86% of Democrats and 77% of Black voters back Harris, roughly 10 points below the mark Democrats aim to hit. About 12% of Black voters the most reliable bulwark of Democratic support in Georgia say they haven't made up their minds.

The enthusiasm gap between the two candidates has narrowed, with broad majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents indicating they are excited to support their picks at the polls.

And most voters who have decided say they aren't budging. Fewer than 3% of Georgia voters say there's a chance to change their minds about their choice for president before the election.
Quote:
Georgians remain pessimistic about the national outlook, with nearly two-thirds saying the U.S. is headed down the wrong track. But 58% of Georgians say they expect the economy to improve over the next year.

Economic issues are by far the biggest factor in November to Georgia voters, with 43% listing either the economy and jobs or inflation and cost of living as their top priority. About 18% said preserving democracy was the top priority. Every other issue tallied in the single digits, including immigration (8%), abortion (8%) and public safety (2%).
If she's only getting 80 percent of black voters in Nov. it's over, regardless of their turnout 'machine.' Only 8 percent list abortion/infanticide as their top issue/priority, her main campaign theme.
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