Muh Polls

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LMCane
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 8:51a, 9/6/24
[Betting people they are wrong is a form of trolling. Just make your counter-arguments using polling on this thread. Thanks. -Staff]
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GoAgs92
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 9:31a, 9/6/24
AG
2023NCAggies said:
GoAgs92 said:
In defense of waffle RCP shows Harris up in most swing states
Look at some of those polls they are factoring in to those averages.

Now go look at how much Biden was ahead in 2020

This is going to be a blowout
I understand all of that but it's easy to interpret waffles dismay based on RCPs data.

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agsalaska
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In reply to cecil77 • 9:32a, 9/6/24
AG
cecil77 said:
I don't think it's polling "mistakes" per se. I think it's baked in by the realities of conservative vs liberal.

In general conservatives just want to be left alone. In general liberals want to make a fuss.

So how many conservatives do you have to poll, just to get enough to agree to be polled to make up for that?

And... That discounts the possibilities of intentful bias in polling.

Add to that that many people still just don't want to admit that they're going to vote for Trump, even though they are.


Yea that's all correct. That's the challenge that they are trying to balance. They undercounted that effect in 16 and 20. I wouldn't just assume that they will undercount it again in 24.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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Waffledynamics
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10:54a, 9/6/24
AG
One thing that will be interesting is how recent "sorting" of the population affects the EC results. Some of you may recall that red states have been being redder, while blue states have been getting bluer. It could have an impact and change conventional wisdom for these polls.
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cecil77
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In reply to agsalaska • 11:30a, 9/6/24
AG
agsalaska said:
cecil77 said:
I don't think it's polling "mistakes" per se. I think it's baked in by the realities of conservative vs liberal.

In general conservatives just want to be left alone. In general liberals want to make a fuss.

So how many conservatives do you have to poll, just to get enough to agree to be polled to make up for that?

And... That discounts the possibilities of intentful bias in polling.

Add to that that many people still just don't want to admit that they're going to vote for Trump, even though they are.


Yea that's all correct. That's the challenge that they are trying to balance. They undercounted that effect in 16 and 20. I wouldn't just assume that they will undercount it again in 24.

"The race doesn't always go to the fastest horse... but it's the way to bet."

That applies to well documented (for more than the past two POTUS elections) errors in polling.
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Who?mikejones!
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11:32a, 9/6/24


Whatever convention bounce Kamala might have got was offset by Kennedy's dropping out and supporting trump.
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Who?mikejones!
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11:53a, 9/6/24
https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-electoral-college-bias-has-returned

Quote:
the Electoral College is starting to look like a challenge for Kamala Harris. This was a problem for Democrats in 2016, of course, and also in 2020 when Joe Biden won the popular vote by 4.5 points, but the tipping-point state, Wisconsin, went for Biden by only 0.6 points.


Quote:
Harris is still ever-so-slightly ahead in our polling averages in enough states for her to win 270 electoral votes but she's slightly behind in our forecast of those states, mostly because the model assumes that polls conducted just after the DNC are likely to be relatively favorable for Harris


Quote:
So as you can see from this next chart, we have the Electoral College in toss-up range even if Harris wins the popular vote by between 2 and 3 points. And she'd need to win the popular vote by roughly 4 points to truly "safe" in the Electoral College.


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2023NCAggies
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In reply to agsalaska • 12:17p, 9/6/24
agsalaska said:
2023NCAggies said:
GoAgs92 said:
In defense of waffle RCP shows Harris up in most swing states
Look at some of those polls they are factoring in to those averages.

Now go look at how much Biden was ahead in 2020

This is going to be a blowout


You are making the assumption that the pollsters have not adjusted their practices and figured out how to accurately poll Trump supporters. They over counted Republican support in 2022 without Trump on the ballot. It is possible that they are overcounting Republican support again.

Assuming they are going to make the same mistakes three cycles in a row? I wouldn't make that assumption.

That being said I think Trump wins PA and wins by the skin of his teeth.
2022 doesn't mean crap. The Trump support comes during the PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, not off years

They have not learned a damn thing. DO you believe these polls? lol Look at the breakdowns
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rwpag71
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In reply to agsalaska • 12:28p, 9/6/24
AG
agsalaska said:
2023NCAggies said:
GoAgs92 said:
In defense of waffle RCP shows Harris up in most swing states
Look at some of those polls they are factoring in to those averages.

Now go look at how much Biden was ahead in 2020

This is going to be a blowout


You are making the assumption that the pollsters have not adjusted their practices and figured out how to accurately poll Trump supporters. They over counted Republican support in 2022 without Trump on the ballot. It is possible that they are overcounting Republican support again.

Assuming they are going to make the same mistakes three cycles in a row? I wouldn't make that assumption.

That being said I think Trump wins PA and wins by the skin of his teeth.

Republican support was not over counted in 2022. The rcp generic average was R +2.5. Actual results were R +2.8. In the past that would have resulted in a sizable majority for the R's. For whatever reasons (reapportionment?) that did not occur.
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agsalaska
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 12:29p, 9/6/24
AG
2023NCAggies said:
agsalaska said:
2023NCAggies said:
GoAgs92 said:
In defense of waffle RCP shows Harris up in most swing states
Look at some of those polls they are factoring in to those averages.

Now go look at how much Biden was ahead in 2020

This is going to be a blowout


You are making the assumption that the pollsters have not adjusted their practices and figured out how to accurately poll Trump supporters. They over counted Republican support in 2022 without Trump on the ballot. It is possible that they are overcounting Republican support again.

Assuming they are going to make the same mistakes three cycles in a row? I wouldn't make that assumption.

That being said I think Trump wins PA and wins by the skin of his teeth.
2022 doesn't mean crap. The Trump support comes during the PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, not off years

They have not learned a damn thing. DO you believe these polls? lol Look at the breakdowns


All I am going to say to that is you can't argue with that logic and I love your enthusiasm!
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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cecil77
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12:47p, 9/6/24
AG
CA Harris +22%. That is the entirety of the difference in the national vote. Heck, LA County alone is.
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will25u
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1:14p, 9/6/24
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Kentucky Jeff
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In reply to will25u • 1:25p, 9/6/24
will25u said:


I'm pretty sure Ohio will flip too. Moreno is starting to hit his stride. That race has really tightened within the last month.
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WestAustinAg
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In reply to rwpag71 • 2:07p, 9/6/24
AG
rwpag71 said:
agsalaska said:
2023NCAggies said:
GoAgs92 said:
In defense of waffle RCP shows Harris up in most swing states
Look at some of those polls they are factoring in to those averages.

Now go look at how much Biden was ahead in 2020

This is going to be a blowout


You are making the assumption that the pollsters have not adjusted their practices and figured out how to accurately poll Trump supporters. They over counted Republican support in 2022 without Trump on the ballot. It is possible that they are overcounting Republican support again.

Assuming they are going to make the same mistakes three cycles in a row? I wouldn't make that assumption.

That being said I think Trump wins PA and wins by the skin of his teeth.

Republican support was not over counted in 2022. The rcp generic average was R +2.5. Actual results were R +2.8. In the past that would have resulted in a sizable majority for the R's. For whatever reasons (reapportionment?) that did not occur.


It doesn't matter. Trump and Harris weren't in the ticket anywhere. Those two names change everything.
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policywonk98
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2:11p, 9/6/24
AG
It's too bad Sam Brown is not gaining more traction in Nevada. I've known him for about a decade. He's very smart and very capable of being a great Senator. I just don't think he can close the gap he has on an incumbent with the way things run in that state. Just don't know if he has enough of a campaign war chest and the GOP nationally is crippled by really crappy fundraising in this cycle. Nevada is missing out if they pass on him.
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oh no
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In reply to policywonk98 • 2:41p, 9/6/24
AG
wow. how do you know him?

He needs more support. Winnable senate flip given the momentum trump has at the top of the ticket in that state, but incumbents can be tough to oust. glad to see senate polls tightening in OH, PA, MI. Need to tighten in NV and AZ too.
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nortex97
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In reply to oh no • 3:38p, 9/6/24
AG
Pa and Ohio are looking better and better for the senate races. Nice to not have to worry about the rino in MD. Hogan I could see switching parties next year anyway.
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Drahknor03
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In reply to nortex97 • 3:46p, 9/6/24
AG
Why one earth would Hogan switch parties? He'd be one of the most powerful senators if he won as a Republican.

I live in Maryland. He's the absolute best you can get up here.
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policywonk98
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In reply to oh no • 4:15p, 9/6/24
AG
oh no said:
wow. how do you know him?

He needs more support. Winnable senate flip given the momentum trump has at the top of the ticket in that state, but incumbents can be tough to oust. glad to see senate polls tightening in OH, PA, MI. Need to tighten in NV and AZ too.


I assume Trump will go and stump in NV. Hopefully that helps, but it needs to be on front end of the the calendar before early voting starts. Ben Shapiro was in state trying to help him raise money this last week. Ben knows a smart up and coming politician when he sees and hears one. Brown is not in the same crappy class of politicians that Trump has endorsed the past four years. He's legit a good, very smart, war hero candidate. He will have to learn the ropes because he's never served in a legislative role, but he will learn very fast.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Kentucky Jeff • 2:10a, 9/7/24
Kentucky Jeff said:
will25u said:


I'm pretty sure Ohio will flip too. Moreno is starting to hit his stride. That race has really tightened within the last month.


Trump will pull Moreno over the line. Then I'm betting McCormick pull a huge upset over Casey.

53-47
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nortex97
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 6:15a, 9/7/24
AG
Not a huge upset really, as the latest poll had Casey tied. Last two polls in AZ also had Lake-Gallego as a 3 and 4 point race. That could easily tighten up, especially if Trump surges there.
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Quo Vadis?
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7:46a, 9/7/24
Trump cracks through 50% the first time in Rasmussen

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dirtylondrie712
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8:41a, 9/7/24
AG
Is Interactive Polls pretty reliable?? Their tweets seem like pretty good polling for Trump.
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to dirtylondrie712 • 8:51a, 9/7/24
dirtylondrie712 said:
Is Interactive Polls pretty reliable?? Their tweets seem like pretty good polling for Trump.


I believe they're just polling aggregator.
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will25u
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9:23a, 9/7/24

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AggieUSMC
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In reply to will25u • 9:36a, 9/7/24
AG
will25u said:

AZ and NV are traditionally heavy VBM states even before 2020.
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to will25u • 10:04a, 9/7/24
This is why I feel better about 2024. Covid allowed them to spam ballots to literally everyone through the mail and they still BARELY beat Trump in the swing states.

Everyone knows republicans mainly vote in person, so with the huge voter registration edge we have and the lack of vote by mail it bodes well for Trump
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nortex97
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12:20p, 9/7/24
AG
Lot's of good trends;





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Dallas82
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 1:40p, 9/7/24
Historically Republicans in States like Florida voted by mail. Trump did it. The GOP used to encourage people to vote by mail because 1) lots of Republicans are older and more likely to not vote if the weather is bad and 2) they have always known that there really are no security problems with mail in ballots. There was a lot of Republican complaints in 2020 when Trump was telling people to NOT vote by mail because they knew it could cost them if the weather was bad on Election Day.
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Philip J Fry
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4:03p, 9/7/24
AG
Vote by absentee ballots you mean.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 5:26p, 9/7/24
Philip J Fry said:
Vote by absentee ballots you mean.


That's the only type there should be.

What happened in 2020 the Dems decided hey we'll just mail them to every adult this election. Illegal AF but hey Covid cover right.

I don't think any swing state is doing that this election. Which took a huge tool off the table for Dems

They found the people that don't vote and got them to vote Dem

They have a lot of stuff from 2020 that they cannot use anymore


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sanangelo
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11:43p, 9/7/24
AG
I saw Tucker and Glenn Beck in Utah tonight. Tucker claimed that he saw the internal polling for Trump and he is winning in the swing states by a lot. He told the audience to watch where Kamala campaigns. If she's in a swing state, it probably means her (and Trump's) internal polling is showing it looking bad for her.
San Angelo LIVE!
https://sanangelolive.com/
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Quo Vadis?
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6:02a, 9/8/24


Democrats in panic mode over A+ rated NYT poll showing Trump as a rounded +2

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Quo Vadis?
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6:19a, 9/8/24
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ts5641
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 6:40a, 9/8/24
Amazing as much as they've pimped her up that she has less % of the black vote than biden.
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