Muh Polls

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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to DonHenley • 3:11p, 9/5/24
AG
DonHenley said:
WV, MT, who else? PA
OH and PA are the most likely flips after MT.
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Captn_Ag05
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3:13p, 9/5/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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3:13p, 9/5/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 3:19p, 9/5/24
AG
McCormick being down 11% is totally inconsistent with other polls we have seen out of PA. It likely means they oversampled soft republicans, which is why Trump is only down 1 in the same poll. Good news for Trump in the PA poll IMO.
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aggiehawg
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3:19p, 9/5/24
AG
Sununu just said New Hampshire definitely in play and Trump shold win there by 1 to 1.5 points.

Which tracks what the NH journalist on Halperin's stream also said, he believed there was very strong Trump support there.

ETA: In 2016, Trump only lost NH by 2,000 votes.
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techno-ag
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3:28p, 9/5/24
AG
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/09/05/nolte-poll-puts-trump-national-2-point-lead-kamala-49-to-47/
Trump will fix it.
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aggiehawg
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3:30p, 9/5/24
AG
Has Kamala lost CNN?

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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Jack Boyette • 3:30p, 9/5/24
AG
What is he referring to by "recalled vote"?
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 3:35p, 9/5/24
AG
That seems very bad for Trump.

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JayM
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 3:35p, 9/5/24
2023NCAggies said:
Looks like at worst it is 51-49 senate

Nice. I am at 53-47
Can Sherrod Brown be defeated? I just don't understand the schizophrenic electorate in a state like Ohio that vote for Trump and re-elect Brown who might as well be a socialist.
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Barnyard96
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3:57p, 9/5/24
AG
Always cut the blue wire.


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Waffledynamics
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4:06p, 9/5/24
AG
Sorry guys, I just don't see Trump winning this. Critique the polling methodology all you want, but this is hard to convince me it's fake.





I don't think these pollsters are trying to get it wrong. Maybe I'm just feeling pessimistic, but I don't see Trump overcoming the media.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 4:09p, 9/5/24
AG
He cant win the electoral college because Harris is up in the popular vote?
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 4:10p, 9/5/24
AG
Quote:
I don't think these pollsters are trying to get it wrong. Maybe I'm just feeling pessimistic, but I don't see Trump overcoming the media.
The simple truth is that pollsters have not been able to fully adapt to lack of landlines and overwhelming use of cell phones and how to reach them and get them to respond.

The last week or so I have had five or six texts asking me to participate in a poll. I just ignore them all.
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Barnyard96
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4:13p, 9/5/24
AG
RCP average for PA is tied and trending Trump
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Rockdoc
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 4:30p, 9/5/24
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Sorry guys, I just don't see Trump winning this. Critique the polling methodology all you want, but this is hard to convince me it's fake.





I don't think these pollsters are trying to get it wrong. Maybe I'm just feeling pessimistic, but I don't see Trump overcoming the media.

Then go ahead and give up (or celebrate) and quit worrying about it. Otherwise, just know these polls right now mean NOTHING.
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DonHenley
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4:30p, 9/5/24
AG
I think Trump can lose the popular vote by up to 2% an still win the EC.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 4:35p, 9/5/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
McCormick being down 11% is totally inconsistent with other polls we have seen out of PA. It likely means they oversampled soft republicans, which is why Trump is only down 1 in the same poll. Good news for Trump in the PA poll IMO.
YouGov polls are complete garbage. And I mean complete garbage. Worst polls I have seen this cycle, or close

Ignore them
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JDUB08AG
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 4:41p, 9/5/24
AG
You really don't understand how electoral college math works.
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aginlakeway
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 4:42p, 9/5/24
AG
You know it's September 5, right?
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Jack Boyette
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 4:47p, 9/5/24
Waffledynamics said:
Sorry guys, I just don't see Trump winning this. Critique the polling methodology all you want, but this is hard to convince me it's fake.





I don't think these pollsters are trying to get it wrong. Maybe I'm just feeling pessimistic, but I don't see Trump overcoming the media.
If she's up in the popular vote (the actual one, not the polling one which always seems to overestimate democrats by a lot) by less than 2%, then he has about a 66% chance of winning the election.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to DonHenley • 4:55p, 9/5/24
DonHenley said:
WV, MT, who else? PA?
That is where I am right now. I think Trump carries dead weight Moreno over the finish line. And I think we win a rust belt state surprise. Right now I will say PA, which lmao would be a huge kick to the nuts for Dems. Kasey was looked at as a guaranteed lifer in the senate.

Also there are just so many races, the odds favor at least one win for Rs. I count 6 states we could win, Dems would have to sweep Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, PA, Maryland for it to be 52-48

And I do not believe most of the polls to be honest, they are all over the place and I mean all over the place with the senate candidates.
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will25u
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9:08p, 9/5/24
It's over folks.

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2023NCAggies
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In reply to aggiehawg • 9:27p, 9/5/24
aggiehawg said:
Sununu just said New Hampshire definitely in play and Trump shold win there by 1 to 1.5 points.

Which tracks what the NH journalist on Halperin's stream also said, he believed there was very strong Trump support there.

ETA: In 2016, Trump only lost NH by 2,000 votes.


Trump needs to have events with RFK in places like New Hampshire, North Carolina, Michigan. Nevada

Those are places RFK was doing good or would likely help pull votes
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nortex97
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5:05a, 9/6/24
AG
Nice.



Interesting:



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GoAgs92
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6:53a, 9/6/24
AG
In defense of waffle RCP shows Harris up in most swing states
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:55a, 9/6/24
AG
I'm not sure I understand. Two of those posts contradict each other. One says Trump has a better chance of winning. The other says Harris does. Both cite Nate Silver.
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nortex97
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:08a, 9/6/24
AG
The poly market graph may be the issue; it's from Aug 27.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to GoAgs92 • 7:47a, 9/6/24
GoAgs92 said:
In defense of waffle RCP shows Harris up in most swing states
Look at some of those polls they are factoring in to those averages.

Now go look at how much Biden was ahead in 2020

This is going to be a blowout
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Captn_Ag05
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8:01a, 9/6/24
AG




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Captn_Ag05
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8:02a, 9/6/24
AG
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agsalaska
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 8:32a, 9/6/24
AG
2023NCAggies said:
GoAgs92 said:
In defense of waffle RCP shows Harris up in most swing states
Look at some of those polls they are factoring in to those averages.

Now go look at how much Biden was ahead in 2020

This is going to be a blowout


You are making the assumption that the pollsters have not adjusted their practices and figured out how to accurately poll Trump supporters. They over counted Republican support in 2022 without Trump on the ballot. It is possible that they are overcounting Republican support again.

Assuming they are going to make the same mistakes three cycles in a row? I wouldn't make that assumption.

That being said I think Trump wins PA and wins by the skin of his teeth.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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cecil77
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In reply to agsalaska • 8:40a, 9/6/24
AG
I don't think it's polling "mistakes" per se. I think it's baked in by the realities of conservative vs liberal.

In general conservatives just want to be left alone. In general liberals want to make a fuss.

So how many conservatives do you have to poll, just to get enough to agree to be polled to make up for that?

And... That discounts the possibilities of intentful bias in polling.

Add to that that many people still just don't want to admit that they're going to vote for Trump, even though they are.
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Barnyard96
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8:44a, 9/6/24
AG
Lots of People come out and vote for Trump in the presidential election and stay home for midterms.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 8:46a, 9/6/24
AG
2023NCAggies said:
GoAgs92 said:
In defense of waffle RCP shows Harris up in most swing states
Look at some of those polls they are factoring in to those averages.

Now go look at how much Biden was ahead in 2020

This is going to be a blowout


Remove the one Bloomberg stack of polls and it's a different story
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