Muh Polls

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aggiehawg
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3:38p, 9/4/24
AG
Kamala and Tim are rebuffing local press as well as national press. That's not smart retail politics. Make an appearance at a campaign event and reach a few thousand or so voters. Do interviews with local press and reach far far more. Dumb.

Via Hot Air.

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2023NCAggies
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 3:41p, 9/4/24
McInnis 03 said:
aggiehawg said:
2023NCAggies said:
agsalaska said:
They are definitely, albeit slowly, turning right.
I kind of look at it like this. The national polls stalled awhile ago, Trump (should) not get any better than -2 average by election day. If it is a +2 average for Harris on election day, she gets obliterated in the EC. It was +5 for Clinton and +9 for Biden

Right now it is at +1.9 and that is after her 30 glorified MSM love fest AND their big cenvention

She has to nail the debate or she is done for
Kamala went to New Hampshire to unveil her latest iteration of Kamalaeconomics. That would hurt small businesses. New Hampshire, which is comprised of mostly small business owners.

It's like she is trying to lose or is incredibly tone deaf.
The fact that a democrat is campaigning in New Hampshire after labor day is an indictment on her standing by itself.
Well considering Trump team was being reported dropping out of New Hampshire, campaigning wise

Both of their internals must look bad, which should tell you all you need to know about polling accuracy this election

Yes Trump team denied it, but it is probably true
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aggiehawg
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 3:44p, 9/4/24
AG
Trump was doing local radio interviews in New Hampshire ahead of Kamala's appearance.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to agracer • 3:48p, 9/4/24
agracer said:
Science Denier said:
AggieMD95 said:
Quo Vadis? said:




This is from a local news station in Detroit I believe.


How is Trump only up 19% on border policy ?


Unfortunately, there is a large number that want as many illegals here as possible.
border policy is not as important in Michigan as it is in Texas.

Also, you have to remember 40% will vote D or R not matter what. It's the 20% in the middle that matter.
Michigan is probably the most baffling state to figure out.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to aggiehawg • 3:51p, 9/4/24
aggiehawg said:
Trump was doing local radio interviews in New Hampshire ahead of Kamala's appearance.
10/4, New Hampshire is another state I cannot figure out.

They have very secure elections too.. You have to vote in person and have an ID
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Barnyard96
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5:53p, 9/4/24
AG
14 day chart of the RCP betting average.


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TexAgs91
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 7:50p, 9/4/24
AG
Barnyard96 said:
14 day chart of the RCP betting average.




Isn't it odd that polls are so often so close to 50/50?

Why is that?
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agsalaska
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In reply to TexAgs91 • 7:56p, 9/4/24
AG
Because the race is very, very, very close.

No more no less
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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Waffledynamics
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In reply to TexAgs91 • 7:56p, 9/4/24
AG
TexAgs91 said:
Barnyard96 said:
14 day chart of the RCP betting average.




Isn't it odd that polls are so often so close to 50/50?

Why is that?
Because are a very partisanly divided country.
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TexAgs91
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In reply to agsalaska • 8:37p, 9/4/24
AG
agsalaska said:
Because the race is very, very, very close.

No more no less


Statistically, there's no inherent reason why the mean has to be exactly at 50/50 unless there's some underlying force or mechanism causing that. It could just as easily be 45/55 or 55/45.

50/50 is conspicuously symmetrical as if there is an external force driving it towards 50/50.

The external force could be unconscious bias towards 50/50, feedback loops from polling (if it gets close to 50/50, there's the perception that it's close, bettors may start acting as if it's close and bet both sides) or media driven perception.

In a betting market there's a natural push for equilibrium. If too much money is placed on one side, odds adjust to bring balance, driving things back toward 50/50 even if the underlying reality isn't quite that close.

Or a combination of these forces.
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GottaRide
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In reply to TexAgs91 • 8:41p, 9/4/24
S
Because the pollsters and the media all make money by keeping it close. They have the ability to shape it to create the biggest interest from both sides.
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2023NCAggies
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9:04p, 9/4/24
https://www.foxnews.com/media/political-analyst-warns-harris-could-lose-key-battleground-state-almost-certainly-not-going-win-without

Dem insiders with deep ties to the state, two do not think she'll win PA, others on the verge of that conclusion

But Walz didn't hurt her………. lol Derp. Shapiro automatically ends Trump there. I do not see much of Shapiro these days, doubt he campaigning hard for Harris

Now she's likely to lose the state. RFK is off ticket and Stein is on. Oliver sucks. RFK will be campaigning Taking those votes or helping with Libertarian voter. Sh** hitting the fan haha for Dems.

Trump wins that debate. It's 100% over


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2023NCAggies
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10:47p, 9/4/24
Rs has overtaken Dems on enthusiasm 49-48

Forgot where I saw it. I knew it, this Dem and Harris surge was fake or very weak and it's falling apart
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RangerRick9211
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 10:55p, 9/4/24
AG
2023NCAggies said:
Rs has overtaken Dems on enthusiasm 49-48

Forgot where I saw it. I knew it, this Dem and Harris surge was fake or very weak and it's falling apart
Yeah, need a source on that.

Gallup had it 78/64 (Dem/Rep) in their last poll (compared to 55/59 in March). I think enthusiasm will fade naturally and with the debate, but the surge is still there from the data I'm seeing.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/649397/democrats-drive-surge-election-enthusiasm.aspx
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to RangerRick9211 • 9:14a, 9/5/24
RangerRick9211 said:
2023NCAggies said:
Rs has overtaken Dems on enthusiasm 49-48

Forgot where I saw it. I knew it, this Dem and Harris surge was fake or very weak and it's falling apart
Yeah, need a source on that.

Gallup had it 78/64 (Dem/Rep) in their last poll (compared to 55/59 in March). I think enthusiasm will fade naturally and with the debate, but the surge is still there from the data I'm seeing.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/649397/democrats-drive-surge-election-enthusiasm.aspx
Silver

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Captn_Ag05
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10:27a, 9/5/24
AG



Rasmussen trend



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Captn_Ag05
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10:42a, 9/5/24
AG
Richard Baris' new poll

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2023NCAggies
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11:24a, 9/5/24
National polls looking really bad lately for Harris

Ha

When does she come out of hiding? Their plan was to have the media gush over them for 30+ days straight without asking questions, have a huge awesome convention, and her rising to a +4% national average lead and lead in rust belts

Two of those came true, the results did not lol

And if you do nothing like she has been, it is a guaranteed loss. Her numbers will continue to decline until election.

They are going to be forced to put her in public, and I cannot wait for the flubs. That or she will have to dominate the debate, which she won't
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Ag with kids
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:24a, 9/5/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:



Rasmussen trend



That poll with West/Oliver/Stein doesn't make sense.

Harris loses 0% when adding 2 liberals and a Libertarian, but Trump loses 3%?
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Ag with kids • 11:26a, 9/5/24
AG
McLaughlin is an F rated pollster for a reason
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Hungry Ojos
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12:01p, 9/5/24
Tell me why that Rasmussen trend line shouldn't be concerning.
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JDUB08AG
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 12:07p, 9/5/24
AG
Hungry Ojos said:
Tell me why that Rasmussen trend line shouldn't be concerning.
Keep in mind the +7 number was following the assassination attempt and the GOP convention, which likely was artificially inflated.
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Quo Vadis?
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12:09p, 9/5/24
If you draw that line it's asymptotic to 50/50. That's about right. I think they split the Popular vote, and thats a massive Trump W
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Legal Custodian
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12:14p, 9/5/24
AG
This time 4 years ago Biden was up in the RealClearPolling Avg by 7.0pts. Right now it is Kamala up by 2.0pts. So a 5 point swing and Biden ended up winning the popular by 4.5pts.

The polling avg for the final two weeks had Biden +7.2 and ended at Biden +4.5. So a 2.7pt swing in favor of Trump from polling to actual. Using the same logic Trump would be up by .7pts right now. What do you think the EC final would be if it ended with Trump winning the popular vote by .7pts?
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Quo Vadis?
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12:20p, 9/5/24
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Marvin_Zindler
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 12:24p, 9/5/24
AG
2023NCAggies said:
aggiehawg said:
2023NCAggies said:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls

Figured McCormick was doing better than was being put out.

CNN has him TIED with Casey

Polls are slowly turning. CNN sucks but it's a sign

Casey is from an old time big political family and supported by the Rendell Machine. He's formidable in PA for that reason. Flip side of that is he's essentially a bench warmer in the Senate and hasn't done a lot for his home state. So he has lost some support for that reason.
Man I see the McCormick ads and they are blistering. They are better than Trumps in some cases

Dude is running a great campaign up there. GOP needs to send him a lot of money and resources, but I imagine with Trump team there 24/7 they are pushing for both votes.

Also there are articles with The Michigan Senate candidate as a possible big upset. GD iT! I wish John James was the R candidate this time, he would have smoked Slotkin.

Many polls have that Arizona Senate race tighter than what some of the haters on here think it is. I do not see her winning (yet) but it is a good sign multiple polls have it within margin of error


How the AZ Republican Party cannot get its **** together is infuriating. Lake is a terrible candidate.
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2023NCAggies
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12:40p, 9/5/24


McCormick has closed the gap with deadbeat Kasey, CNN has it tied and this poll down 2.

Pretty big comeback, PA is moving R, presidential and senate races haha

Oh how that pass on the Jew is working out......... lol idiots
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normalhorn
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12:49p, 9/5/24
All of the hot air wasted whining about what a horrible choice JD Vance was, but Democrats can't bring it to themselves to openly admit that choosing this weird, phony, valor-stealing turd Walz over the PA gov wasn't anything less than cataclysmic.
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nortex97
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1:06p, 9/5/24
AG
Harris is underperforming Biden and Clinton across the board:



The 'race card' against Sheehy isn't going to work, imho;

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Jack Boyette
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1:10p, 9/5/24
Rasmussen had Trump up 6 yesterday.
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Jack Boyette
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1:25p, 9/5/24
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nortex97
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2:03p, 9/5/24
AG
I'd like to see Sheehy (not Tester, duh, stupid edit) up more than 6 in case there are reservation schemes afoot (which, btw, there are).

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2023NCAggies
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2:17p, 9/5/24
Looks like at worst it is 51-49 senate

Nice. I am at 53-47
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Who?mikejones!
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2:47p, 9/5/24
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DonHenley
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 3:10p, 9/5/24
AG
WV, MT, who else? PA?
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