Muh Polls

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nortex97
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5:11a, 9/4/24
AG
A candid admission;


Harris probably did cost herself a few points with her 18 minute sham interview:
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nortex97
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7:50a, 9/4/24
AG
This one bounces around daily but whatever;

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Rockdoc
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:53a, 9/4/24
AG
Having trouble understanding the severe bounces in this one.
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LMCane
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 7:57a, 9/4/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
Quo Vadis? said:
So there are 300k less democrats and 20k more republicans than in 2020? Seems pretty good
Yes, Scott Presler has done a great job there registering Republicans. Some people say that he is just getting a lot of Independents that already vote Republican moved over to Republican, but I think there is more to it than that.
they are flipping Luzerne County PA from democrat to Republican in the next two weeks

in 2020 Luzerne was +24,260 democrats over Republican.
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LMCane
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In reply to aggiehawg • 7:59a, 9/4/24
aggiehawg said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Quo Vadis? said:
So there are 300k less democrats and 20k more republicans than in 2020? Seems pretty good
Yes, Scott Pressler has done a great job there registering Republicans. Some people say that he getting a lot of Independents that already vote Republican moved over to Republican, but I think there is more to it than that.
Agree with you. Presler is also getting disaffected voters who do no always vote in PA because they had been outnumbered by the urban vote for so long. Get them to register and hen follow up to get them to actually vote.

His Vote Action group is amazingly awesome- I follow on the Twitters and they are registering and changing registrations of dozens of people every single day in PA

Gun shows, county fairs, flag waving in Philly suburbs

they need to start hitting Philly with Nicole Shanahan and RFK Jr. in the outer suburbs of Bucks and Montgomery counties
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Philip J Fry
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8:01a, 9/4/24
AG
The bounces are just from it being a daily poll combined with polling error. The wide swings are fake news, but it does show general trends.
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nortex97
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In reply to Rockdoc • 8:01a, 9/4/24
AG
It's a daily poll so it shows that, imho, but if you took a 3 day smoothed out average, and perhaps a 7 day, I think it would show Trump up a couple (think like a MACD set of comparison lines in stocks). A given day doesn't really matter or show a trend.
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rononeill
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8:34a, 9/4/24
I think that's what the lighter dotted lines are- 5 day trailing avg
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nortex97
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In reply to rononeill • 8:37a, 9/4/24
AG
Ah, you're right.

Quite a surge for McCormick.
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AggieMD95
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 8:38a, 9/4/24
AG
Quo Vadis? said:




This is from a local news station in Detroit I believe.


How is Trump only up 19% on border policy ?
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Science Denier
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In reply to AggieMD95 • 8:41a, 9/4/24
AG
AggieMD95 said:
Quo Vadis? said:




This is from a local news station in Detroit I believe.


How is Trump only up 19% on border policy ?


Unfortunately, there is a large number that want as many illegals here as possible.
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Philip J Fry
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8:51a, 9/4/24
AG
[This is a thread on polls and related conversation. We're not going to derail the thread with tangents. Reposting material that we removed twice isn't the way to go -- Staff]
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oh no
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In reply to AggieMD95 • 9:01a, 9/4/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:15a, 9/4/24
AG
nortex97 said:
This one bounces around daily but whatever;

Polling on Labor Day weekend is historically very pro Democrat.
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nortex97
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9:45a, 9/4/24
AG




For you 'I don't do X' people, here is a link to his story/poll.

Quote:
Donald Trump appears to be gaining serious momentum in 10 key battleground states, according to a new poll for the Express US.

Data from the Democracy Insitute shows the Republican Presidential hopeful is favored by five percentage point lead over Kamala Harris - at 50 percent to 45 percent.

The poll asked 1,000 likely voters who would be their pick in the battlegrounds of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
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2023NCAggies
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11:59a, 9/4/24
https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls

Figured McCormick was doing better than was being put out.

CNN has him TIED with Casey

Polls are slowly turning. CNN sucks but it's a sign

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agsalaska
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 12:01p, 9/4/24
AG
They are definitely, albeit slowly, turning right.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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aggiehawg
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 12:04p, 9/4/24
AG
2023NCAggies said:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls

Figured McCormick was doing better than was being put out.

CNN has him TIED with Casey

Polls are slowly turning. CNN sucks but it's a sign

Casey is from an old time big political family and supported by the Rendell Machine. He's formidable in PA for that reason. Flip side of that is he's essentially a bench warmer in the Senate and hasn't done a lot for his home state. So he has lost some support for that reason.
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will25u
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12:07p, 9/4/24
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aggiehawg
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In reply to will25u • 12:14p, 9/4/24
AG
Watched that 2 way from last night. Halperin's guests are mostly very liberal Dems. In that same stream he had a guest who lives in New Hampshire, which is a subject matter because Kamala is campaigning there this week.

He was concerned from his anecdotal evidence of the huge amount of Trump support he's seeing there in terms of yard signs and flags being everywhere.

Then another lib from Wisconsin came on and talked about his being up in the northern part of the state during 2016 and seeing a lot of Trump stuff up there. But the polls all said Hillary would win so he didn't give it much thought, until the morning after the election and Trump won the state.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to aggiehawg • 12:14p, 9/4/24
aggiehawg said:
2023NCAggies said:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls

Figured McCormick was doing better than was being put out.

CNN has him TIED with Casey

Polls are slowly turning. CNN sucks but it's a sign

Casey is from an old time big political family and supported by the Rendell Machine. He's formidable in PA for that reason. Flip side of that is he's essentially a bench warmer in the Senate and hasn't done a lot for his home state. So he has lost some support for that reason.
Man I see the McCormick ads and they are blistering. They are better than Trumps in some cases

Dude is running a great campaign up there. GOP needs to send him a lot of money and resources, but I imagine with Trump team there 24/7 they are pushing for both votes.

Also there are articles with The Michigan Senate candidate as a possible big upset. GD iT! I wish John James was the R candidate this time, he would have smoked Slotkin.

Many polls have that Arizona Senate race tighter than what some of the haters on here think it is. I do not see her winning (yet) but it is a good sign multiple polls have it within margin of error
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to aggiehawg • 12:31p, 9/4/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
Watched that 2 way from last night. Halperin's guests are mostly very liberal Dems. In that same stream he had a guest who lives in New Hampshire, which is a subject matter because Kamala is campaigning there this week.

He was concerned from his anecdotal evidence of the huge amount of Trump support he's seeing there in terms of yard signs and flags being everywhere.

Then another lib from Wisconsin came on and talked about his being up in the northern part of the state during 2016 and seeing a lot of Trump stuff up there. But the polls all said Hillary would win so he didn't give it much thought, until the morning after the election and Trump won the state.
Despite what polling says, I feel better about Wisconsin than Michigan and maybe even Pennsylvania. Wisconsin is historically hard to poll and polling doesn't pick up the rural vote.
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oh no
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 12:35p, 9/4/24
AG
John James won in 2020. Wayne co. shenanigans and mail in ballots got him.

Poll related: Mike Rogers is starting to poll very close to Slotkin in 2024. Don't know too much about Slotkin or Rogers, but I'd think Rogers has a chance with the top of the ticket being driven by the disaster of the Biden-Harris economy and border, lower volume (hopefully) of mail-ins in Wayne co., the pro-hamas wing of democrats possibly staying home.

But then again:

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2023NCAggies
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In reply to AggieMD95 • 12:45p, 9/4/24
AggieMD95 said:
Quo Vadis? said:




This is from a local news station in Detroit I believe.


How is Trump only up 19% on border policy ?


The hard Dem base, and many Independents do not pay attention till the last couple months. Yes people are that blind to issues until two months before election lol. But economy, Immigration and wars is easy sell to Trump, which is why I expect Independents to beak Trump come vote time. I'm thinking 75-25.

Look these people might say Harris now, but when it comes time to pull the lever. They break the other way
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to agsalaska • 1:34p, 9/4/24
agsalaska said:
They are definitely, albeit slowly, turning right.
I kind of look at it like this. The national polls stalled awhile ago, Trump (should) not get any better than -2 average by election day. If it is a +2 average for Harris on election day, she gets obliterated in the EC. It was +5 for Clinton and +9 for Biden

Right now it is at +1.9 and that is after her 30 day glorified MSM love fest AND their big convention

She has to nail the debate or she is done for
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agsalaska
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 1:37p, 9/4/24
AG
I agree.

I think Silver moving it to 60-40 Trump today was a bombshell too. I expect the modeling to continue to favor Trump more and more.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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aggiehawg
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 1:43p, 9/4/24
AG
2023NCAggies said:
agsalaska said:
They are definitely, albeit slowly, turning right.
I kind of look at it like this. The national polls stalled awhile ago, Trump (should) not get any better than -2 average by election day. If it is a +2 average for Harris on election day, she gets obliterated in the EC. It was +5 for Clinton and +9 for Biden

Right now it is at +1.9 and that is after her 30 glorified MSM love fest AND their big cenvention

She has to nail the debate or she is done for
Kamala went to New Hampshire to unveil her latest iteration of Kamalaeconomics. That would hurt small businesses. New Hampshire, which is comprised of mostly small business owners.

It's like she is trying to lose or is incredibly tone deaf.
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BlueSmoke
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In reply to aggiehawg • 1:49p, 9/4/24
aggiehawg said:
2023NCAggies said:
agsalaska said:
They are definitely, albeit slowly, turning right.
I kind of look at it like this. The national polls stalled awhile ago, Trump (should) not get any better than -2 average by election day. If it is a +2 average for Harris on election day, she gets obliterated in the EC. It was +5 for Clinton and +9 for Biden

Right now it is at +1.9 and that is after her 30 glorified MSM love fest AND their big cenvention

She has to nail the debate or she is done for
Kamala went to New Hampshire to unveil her latest iteration of Kamalaeconomics. That would hurt small businesses. New Hampshire, which is comprised of mostly small business owners.

It's like she is trying to lose or is incredibly tone deaf.
Never mistake malfeasance for simple stupidity
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aggiehawg
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In reply to BlueSmoke • 2:11p, 9/4/24
AG
Quote:
Never mistake malfeasance for simple stupidity
Well, Axelrod did dismiss the clips of Kamala's first run for President by saying that she was only parroting what her advisors told her to say. Guess she still has those crappy political advisors.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to aggiehawg • 2:20p, 9/4/24
aggiehawg said:
Watched that 2 way from last night. Halperin's guests are mostly very liberal Dems. In that same stream he had a guest who lives in New Hampshire, which is a subject matter because Kamala is campaigning there this week.

He was concerned from his anecdotal evidence of the huge amount of Trump support he's seeing there in terms of yard signs and flags being everywhere.

Then another lib from Wisconsin came on and talked about his being up in the northern part of the state during 2016 and seeing a lot of Trump stuff up there. But the polls all said Hillary would win so he didn't give it much thought, until the morning after the election and Trump won the state.
Wisconsin, is freaking out because they could not keep Jill Stein off the ticket. She must be a HUGE threat in Wisconsin because they spent a lot of time and money getting her off the ticket in 2020 & tried this year. Pennsylvania didn't even give her a chance to stay on the ballot in 2020, they just decided to vanish her off the ballot lol. Those two instances in 2020, should tell all you need to know on Stein and her potential to screw the Dems

Had she been on the ticket in Wisconsin in 2020, the state would have went to Trump

Also West is on the ticket in Wisconsin, and is pending in Pennsylvania & Michigan

Stein and West are not good for Dems, combined they could take 30~50k votes from Dems in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. LARGE black populations in Detroit, Pittsburgh, Saginaw, Flint, Philly, Milwaukee, do not think West will not pull votes, because he will.

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2023NCAggies
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2:37p, 9/4/24
Just to follow up. I had to go back to 2016 to see what the third party did in these states.

2016 Pennsylvania Stein got 50k. Gary Johnson got 149k. The other 3rd parties got 30k, this is where West comes in

2016 Wisconsin, Jill Stein got 31k in 2016, Johnson 103k. Other third parties 22k.

2016 Michigan, Jill Stein got 51k, Johnson 172k, other 3rd parties 26k

2020 Biden win Wisconsin by 20k. NOT TO MENTION, they left 3 Republican leaning candidates on the ballot, Jorgenson (30k votes), Carroll and Blankenship, combined 10k

2020 Biden won Pennsylvania by 81k, add to this they left Jorgenson on the ticket, she got 79k votes

2020 Biden won Michigan by 150k

Expect a lot of Libertarians to vote Trump, they are a joke compared to 2016 Johnson/Weld, and Jorgenson in 2020, especially with the RFK endorsement

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2023NCAggies
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In reply to aggiehawg • 2:59p, 9/4/24
aggiehawg said:
2023NCAggies said:
agsalaska said:
They are definitely, albeit slowly, turning right.
I kind of look at it like this. The national polls stalled awhile ago, Trump (should) not get any better than -2 average by election day. If it is a +2 average for Harris on election day, she gets obliterated in the EC. It was +5 for Clinton and +9 for Biden

Right now it is at +1.9 and that is after her 30 glorified MSM love fest AND their big cenvention

She has to nail the debate or she is done for
Kamala went to New Hampshire to unveil her latest iteration of Kamalaeconomics. That would hurt small businesses. New Hampshire, which is comprised of mostly small business owners.

It's like she is trying to lose or is incredibly tone deaf.
I do not understand Rs. If lets say we had a Charlie Kirk (turning point USA), or the guy in PA registering Rs.

IF we had big organization like that in states like Maine, New Hampshire, Virginia, those states become legit legit toss ups. Maine and New Hampshire are small states but 7 pts is 7 pts. Plus senators. I just do not think it would take much effort with those 3 states

We need a big operation like that in all the rust belts too
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 3:04p, 9/4/24
The big complaint right now about the RNC is that they are not doing a good job with funding or marketing down ballot candidates and are instead focused almost solely on the presidential race.
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agracer
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In reply to Science Denier • 3:24p, 9/4/24
AG
Science Denier said:
AggieMD95 said:
Quo Vadis? said:




This is from a local news station in Detroit I believe.


How is Trump only up 19% on border policy ?


Unfortunately, there is a large number that want as many illegals here as possible.
border policy is not as important in Michigan as it is in Texas.

Also, you have to remember 40% will vote D or R not matter what. It's the 20% in the middle that matter.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to aggiehawg • 3:35p, 9/4/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
2023NCAggies said:
agsalaska said:
They are definitely, albeit slowly, turning right.
I kind of look at it like this. The national polls stalled awhile ago, Trump (should) not get any better than -2 average by election day. If it is a +2 average for Harris on election day, she gets obliterated in the EC. It was +5 for Clinton and +9 for Biden

Right now it is at +1.9 and that is after her 30 glorified MSM love fest AND their big cenvention

She has to nail the debate or she is done for
Kamala went to New Hampshire to unveil her latest iteration of Kamalaeconomics. That would hurt small businesses. New Hampshire, which is comprised of mostly small business owners.

It's like she is trying to lose or is incredibly tone deaf.
The fact that a democrat is campaigning in New Hampshire after labor day is an indictment on her standing by itself.
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