Muh Polls

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aggiehawg
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In reply to SA68AG • 5:26p, 9/2/24
AG
SA68AG said:
The post convention bump has come and gone for Harris.

It's going to come down to the debate.

I hope Trump actually prepares for this one.
Still not sure the 9/10 debate happens. And that's an odd date to begin with, day before 9/11? And then Benghazi under Obama and Biden?
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Captn_Ag05
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7:30p, 9/2/24
AG
Rasmussen is showing a Harris lead for the first time in their daily poll. May just be noise.

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outofstateaggie
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 8:24p, 9/2/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Rasmussen is showing a Harris lead for the first time in their daily poll. May just be noise.



These polls are absolutely all over the place. No rhyme or reason to them.
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normalhorn
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8:35p, 9/2/24
Damn. When Trump starts going negative in Rasmussen polls, he's sunk.
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Rockdoc
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In reply to normalhorn • 8:37p, 9/2/24
AG
normalhorn said:
Damn. When Trump starts going negative in Rasmussen polls, he's sunk.

Not really. Look at that graph again.
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MarkTwain
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8:37p, 9/2/24
[Do not post X shots that bypass obscenity filters -- Staff]
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aginlakeway
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In reply to normalhorn • 8:41p, 9/2/24
AG

[Stop trolling, and reposting material we removed isn't the way to go -- Staff]
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Captn_Ag05
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8:44p, 9/2/24
AG



Weird because Kamala is going there to campaign.
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Jack Boyette
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:06p, 9/2/24
Captn_Ag05 said:



Weird because Kamala is going there to campaign.


Been refuted by the campaign.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:16p, 9/2/24
AG
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:52p, 9/2/24
nortex97 said:


Note: these guys are absolutely partisan conservatives/republicans running this. I wouldn't put much credibility in this.


313-225
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nortex97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 5:59a, 9/3/24
AG
I don't really think Mountain is even accurate, he is just pushing that (he might just personally think they should focus on PA).
Quote:
Two leading Massachusetts Republicans told the Globe they were not aware of any shift in the Trump campaign's strategy for New England.

Janet Fogarty, the Republican National Committeewoman for Massachusetts, said in an interview Sunday that New Hampshire is "an important state."

She said Republican volunteers from reliably blue Massachusetts flock north to campaign in New Hampshire every four years, and she did not expect 2024 to be any different. Of Mountain's email, she said, "there's no there there."

For his part, Mountain wrote in his email that "the Dems' campaign shakeup from Biden to Harris led our campaign to shift strategy to other winnable battleground states."
Regardless, Trump was trending up last week;



The last two polls in PA are excellent for Trump:

Trafalgar also has him tied in Michigan.
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nortex97
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6:21a, 9/3/24
AG
Requests for mail in ballots not looking real great for the communists in PA:





We should get the latest PA voter registration data (via their Sec. of State release) around 10 CST today.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:40a, 9/3/24
AG
FWIW the RNC been pushing mail in ballots as a strategy this cycle
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nortex97
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 8:41a, 9/3/24
AG
Sure, because getting votes in early saves money and risk of folks not showing up on Election Day. Democrats know that, too. The registration trends/shifts in PA are wildly encouraging.

Notice Trump getting 24 percent of the african American vote here (yesterday);

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Captn_Ag05
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9:24a, 9/3/24
AG
Slow polling morning with only one new one out so far.

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Captn_Ag05
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9:25a, 9/3/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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9:28a, 9/3/24
AG
Arizona Registration update - good for Rs

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Captn_Ag05
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11:58a, 9/3/24
AG


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Captn_Ag05
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12:02p, 9/3/24
AG
PA voter registration update

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will25u
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1:01p, 9/3/24
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nortex97
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1:53p, 9/3/24
AG
Sorry TDS Polling fans:

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AgResearch
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In reply to nortex97 • 1:57p, 9/3/24
AG
nortex97 said:
Sorry TDS Polling fans:



Bury her at the debate and get this over with.
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Rockdoc
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2:06p, 9/3/24
AG
And Nate Silver said he was voting for Harris last week on the Clay and Buck radio show. Go figure.
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GoAgs92
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2:11p, 9/3/24
AG
Nate Silver's website shows Harris winning...hmmm

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast (natesilver.net)

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GoAgs11
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In reply to GoAgs92 • 2:14p, 9/3/24
GoAgs92 said:
Nate Silver's website shows Harris winning...hmmm

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast (natesilver.net)

if you read he says doesn't know who will win
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aggiehawg
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2:24p, 9/3/24
AG
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JDUB08AG
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In reply to GoAgs92 • 2:28p, 9/3/24
AG
GoAgs92 said:
Nate Silver's website shows Harris winning...hmmm

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast (natesilver.net)



He has her leading the popular vote, but when you factor in the electoral math and break down swing state polling, Trump has the better odds at the moment.
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 2:40p, 9/3/24
So there are 300k less democrats and 20k more republicans than in 2020? Seems pretty good
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RangerRick9211
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In reply to nortex97 • 2:41p, 9/3/24
AG
nortex97 said:
Interesting to see Trump seeming to surge here in NC:
New poll from ECU has it tightening in NC. This is the first I've really looked into NC.

Prior: Trump +5
Current: Trump +1

Prior: Stein +1
Current: Stein +6 (???)

How is Robinson running seven points behind Trump?

Edit: Oh, the poll would help: https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/north-carolina-election-heats-up-trump-leads-harris-by-1-point-in-north-carolina-stein-widens-advantage-over-robinson-in-race-for-governor
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to GoAgs92 • 2:49p, 9/3/24
GoAgs92 said:
Nate Silver's website shows Harris winning...hmmm

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast (natesilver.net)


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nortex97
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In reply to RangerRick9211 • 3:02p, 9/3/24
AG
I don't know a lot about NC polling, but suspect it hinges on Trump's share/turnout from black voters. NC is sort of a hybrid southern state though, with a lot of 'Yankees' around Raleigh Durham in the financial industry more left than in much of the rest of the South. From what I can tell, I expect both campaigns to expend resources there (also a cheap media market).
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 3:38p, 9/3/24
AG
Quo Vadis? said:
So there are 300k less democrats and 20k more republicans than in 2020? Seems pretty good
Yes, Scott Presler has done a great job there registering Republicans. Some people say that he is just getting a lot of Independents that already vote Republican moved over to Republican, but I think there is more to it than that.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 3:54p, 9/3/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Quo Vadis? said:
So there are 300k less democrats and 20k more republicans than in 2020? Seems pretty good
Yes, Scott Pressler has done a great job there registering Republicans. Some people say that he getting a lot of Independents that already vote Republican moved over to Republican, but I think there is more to it than that.
Agree with you. Presler is also getting disaffected voters who do no always vote in PA because they had been outnumbered by the urban vote for so long. Get them to register and hen follow up to get them to actually vote.
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Quo Vadis?
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5:16p, 9/3/24




This is from a local news station in Detroit I believe.
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