OH and PA are the most likely flips after MT.DonHenley said:
WV, MT, who else? PA
Muh Polls
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Last: 4 days ago by ts5641
πΊπ² 2024 GE: YouGov for @thetimes
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 5, 2024
MICHIGAN
π¦ Harris: 48% (+5)
π₯ Trump: 43%
β
WISCONSIN
π¦ Harris: 47% (+3)
π₯ Trump: 44%
β
PENNSYLVANIA
π¦ Harris: 46% (+1)
π₯ Trump: 45%
β
NEVADA
π¦ Harris: 49% (+3)
π₯ Trump: 46%
β
NORTH CAROLINA
π₯ Trump: 47% (+1)
π¦ Harris: 46%
β
GEORGIA⦠pic.twitter.com/i3lpgBBVWl
π Senate polling by YouGov for @thetimes
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 5, 2024
ARIZONA
π¦ Ruben Gallego: 50%
π₯ Kari Lake: 42%
β
MICHIGAN
π¦ Elissa Slotkin: 50%
π₯ Mike Rogers: 39%
β
PENNSYLVANIA
π¦ Bob Casey (inc): 52%
π₯ David McCormick: 41%
β
NEVADA
π¦ Jacky Rosen (inc): 51%
π₯ Sam Brown: 39%
β
WISCONSIN
π¦β¦ https://t.co/KVoI07afBe pic.twitter.com/Q1IXopkcQr
McCormick being down 11% is totally inconsistent with other polls we have seen out of PA. It likely means they oversampled soft republicans, which is why Trump is only down 1 in the same poll. Good news for Trump in the PA poll IMO.
Sununu just said New Hampshire definitely in play and Trump shold win there by 1 to 1.5 points.
Which tracks what the NH journalist on Halperin's stream also said, he believed there was very strong Trump support there.
ETA: In 2016, Trump only lost NH by 2,000 votes.
Which tracks what the NH journalist on Halperin's stream also said, he believed there was very strong Trump support there.
ETA: In 2016, Trump only lost NH by 2,000 votes.
Has Kamala lost CNN?
CNN! eviscerates Kamala for claiming she now wants a border wall after saying for years that building a border wall was racist and antithetical to American values. pic.twitter.com/LKhIa13I8q
— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) September 5, 2024
What is he referring to by "recalled vote"?
That seems very bad for Trump.
+3% is how much Democrats outnumber Republicans in the population.
— Prime Mover (@dirk_lerxst) September 5, 2024
So this is a poll directly in line with expectations of turnout.
Can Sherrod Brown be defeated? I just don't understand the schizophrenic electorate in a state like Ohio that vote for Trump and re-elect Brown who might as well be a socialist.2023NCAggies said:
Looks like at worst it is 51-49 senate
Nice. I am at 53-47
Always cut the blue wire.
Sorry guys, I just don't see Trump winning this. Critique the polling methodology all you want, but this is hard to convince me it's fake.
I don't think these pollsters are trying to get it wrong. Maybe I'm just feeling pessimistic, but I don't see Trump overcoming the media.
I don't think these pollsters are trying to get it wrong. Maybe I'm just feeling pessimistic, but I don't see Trump overcoming the media.
He cant win the electoral college because Harris is up in the popular vote?
The simple truth is that pollsters have not been able to fully adapt to lack of landlines and overwhelming use of cell phones and how to reach them and get them to respond.Quote:
I don't think these pollsters are trying to get it wrong. Maybe I'm just feeling pessimistic, but I don't see Trump overcoming the media.
The last week or so I have had five or six texts asking me to participate in a poll. I just ignore them all.
RCP average for PA is tied and trending Trump
Waffledynamics said:
Sorry guys, I just don't see Trump winning this. Critique the polling methodology all you want, but this is hard to convince me it's fake.
I don't think these pollsters are trying to get it wrong. Maybe I'm just feeling pessimistic, but I don't see Trump overcoming the media.
Then go ahead and give up (or celebrate) and quit worrying about it. Otherwise, just know these polls right now mean NOTHING.
I think Trump can lose the popular vote by up to 2% an still win the EC.
YouGov polls are complete garbage. And I mean complete garbage. Worst polls I have seen this cycle, or closeCaptn_Ag05 said:
McCormick being down 11% is totally inconsistent with other polls we have seen out of PA. It likely means they oversampled soft republicans, which is why Trump is only down 1 in the same poll. Good news for Trump in the PA poll IMO.
Ignore them
You really don't understand how electoral college math works.
You know it's September 5, right?
If she's up in the popular vote (the actual one, not the polling one which always seems to overestimate democrats by a lot) by less than 2%, then he has about a 66% chance of winning the election.Waffledynamics said:
Sorry guys, I just don't see Trump winning this. Critique the polling methodology all you want, but this is hard to convince me it's fake.
I don't think these pollsters are trying to get it wrong. Maybe I'm just feeling pessimistic, but I don't see Trump overcoming the media.
That is where I am right now. I think Trump carries dead weight Moreno over the finish line. And I think we win a rust belt state surprise. Right now I will say PA, which lmao would be a huge kick to the nuts for Dems. Kasey was looked at as a guaranteed lifer in the senate.DonHenley said:
WV, MT, who else? PA?
Also there are just so many races, the odds favor at least one win for Rs. I count 6 states we could win, Dems would have to sweep Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, PA, Maryland for it to be 52-48
And I do not believe most of the polls to be honest, they are all over the place and I mean all over the place with the senate candidates.
It's over folks.
A bakery in the Philadelphia suburbs sells election cookies and recently posted their current tally.
— Meg Brock (@MegEBrock) September 5, 2024
Big question: has @ScottPresler tried to register voters leaving the bakery yet? pic.twitter.com/w90tpXFW80
aggiehawg said:
Sununu just said New Hampshire definitely in play and Trump shold win there by 1 to 1.5 points.
Which tracks what the NH journalist on Halperin's stream also said, he believed there was very strong Trump support there.
ETA: In 2016, Trump only lost NH by 2,000 votes.
Trump needs to have events with RFK in places like New Hampshire, North Carolina, Michigan. Nevada
Those are places RFK was doing good or would likely help pull votes
Nice.
Interesting:
#Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (9/5)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 5, 2024
Chance of winning
π₯ Trump: 60.1% (highest since 7/30)
π¦ Harris: 39.7%
ββ
Swing States: chance of winning
Pennsylvania - π΄ Trump 61-39%
Arizona - π΄ Trump 73-27%
North Carolina - π΄ Trump 73-27%
Georgia - π΄ Trump 65-35%
Nevada - π΄β¦ https://t.co/XiISKE0g3B pic.twitter.com/OIbu44UcnL
Interesting:
Real Clear Quick Take - Episode 11
— RealClearPolitics (@RCPolitics) September 5, 2024
In 2016 and 2020, pollsters underestimated Donald Trump's support in several key battleground states.
What might the race look like if this happens again?#RealClearQuickTake #Politics #Election2024 #Trump #Harris pic.twitter.com/jyUSBihqwW
In defense of waffle RCP shows Harris up in most swing states
I'm not sure I understand. Two of those posts contradict each other. One says Trump has a better chance of winning. The other says Harris does. Both cite Nate Silver.
The poly market graph may be the issue; it's from Aug 27.
Look at some of those polls they are factoring in to those averages.GoAgs92 said:
In defense of waffle RCP shows Harris up in most swing states
Now go look at how much Biden was ahead in 2020
This is going to be a blowout
Statewide polling by Emerson (with leans)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 6, 2024
TEXAS
π₯ Trump: 51% (+3)
π¦ Harris: 48%
β
FLORIDA
π₯ Trump: 51% (+3)
π¦ Harris: 48%
β
OHIO
π₯ Trump: 54% (+9)
π¦ Harris: 45%
β
CALIFORNIA
π¦ Harris: 61% (+23)
π₯ Trump: 38%
#9 (2.9/3.0) | 3,290 LV | Sept. 3-5https://t.co/FZ1j9h2sCJ
Senate polling by Emerson/The Hill
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 6, 2024
FLORIDA
π₯ Rick Scott (inc): 46%
π¦ D. Mucarsel-Powell: 45%
β
TEXAS
π₯ Ted Cruz (inc): 48%
π¦ Colin Allred: 44%
β
OHIO
π¦ Sherrod Brown (inc): 46%
π₯ Bernie Moreno: 44%
β
CALIFORNIA
π¦ Adam Schiff: 55%
π₯ Steve Garvey: 33%
#9 (2.9/3.0) |β¦
#New General Election poll
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 6, 2024
π΅ Harris 50% (+2)
π΄ Trump 48%
Last poll - π΅ Harris +3
RMG #C - 2701 LV - 9/5
2023NCAggies said:Look at some of those polls they are factoring in to those averages.GoAgs92 said:
In defense of waffle RCP shows Harris up in most swing states
Now go look at how much Biden was ahead in 2020
This is going to be a blowout
You are making the assumption that the pollsters have not adjusted their practices and figured out how to accurately poll Trump supporters. They over counted Republican support in 2022 without Trump on the ballot. It is possible that they are overcounting Republican support again.
Assuming they are going to make the same mistakes three cycles in a row? I wouldn't make that assumption.
That being said I think Trump wins PA and wins by the skin of his teeth.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.
I don't think it's polling "mistakes" per se. I think it's baked in by the realities of conservative vs liberal.
In general conservatives just want to be left alone. In general liberals want to make a fuss.
So how many conservatives do you have to poll, just to get enough to agree to be polled to make up for that?
And... That discounts the possibilities of intentful bias in polling.
Add to that that many people still just don't want to admit that they're going to vote for Trump, even though they are.
In general conservatives just want to be left alone. In general liberals want to make a fuss.
So how many conservatives do you have to poll, just to get enough to agree to be polled to make up for that?
And... That discounts the possibilities of intentful bias in polling.
Add to that that many people still just don't want to admit that they're going to vote for Trump, even though they are.
Lots of People come out and vote for Trump in the presidential election and stay home for midterms.
2023NCAggies said:Look at some of those polls they are factoring in to those averages.GoAgs92 said:
In defense of waffle RCP shows Harris up in most swing states
Now go look at how much Biden was ahead in 2020
This is going to be a blowout
Remove the one Bloomberg stack of polls and it's a different story