Muh Polls

790,875 Views | 5744 Replies | Last: 4 days ago by ts5641
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to DonHenley • 3:11p, 9/5/24
AG
DonHenley said:
WV, MT, who else? PA
OH and PA are the most likely flips after MT.
Reply Quote
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
3:13p, 9/5/24
AG
Reply Quote
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
3:13p, 9/5/24
AG
Reply Quote
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 3:19p, 9/5/24
AG
McCormick being down 11% is totally inconsistent with other polls we have seen out of PA. It likely means they oversampled soft republicans, which is why Trump is only down 1 in the same poll. Good news for Trump in the PA poll IMO.
Reply Quote
1
aggiehawg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
3:19p, 9/5/24
AG
Sununu just said New Hampshire definitely in play and Trump shold win there by 1 to 1.5 points.

Which tracks what the NH journalist on Halperin's stream also said, he believed there was very strong Trump support there.

ETA: In 2016, Trump only lost NH by 2,000 votes.
Reply Quote
7
1 edit
techno-ag
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
3:28p, 9/5/24
AG
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/09/05/nolte-poll-puts-trump-national-2-point-lead-kamala-49-to-47/
Trump will fix it.
Reply Quote
aggiehawg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
3:30p, 9/5/24
AG
Has Kamala lost CNN?

Reply Quote
8
Waffledynamics
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Jack Boyette • 3:30p, 9/5/24
AG
What is he referring to by "recalled vote"?
Reply Quote
1
Waffledynamics
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 3:35p, 9/5/24
AG
That seems very bad for Trump.

Reply Quote
1 edit
JayM
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to 2023NCAggies • 3:35p, 9/5/24
2023NCAggies said:
Looks like at worst it is 51-49 senate

Nice. I am at 53-47
Can Sherrod Brown be defeated? I just don't understand the schizophrenic electorate in a state like Ohio that vote for Trump and re-elect Brown who might as well be a socialist.
Reply Quote
Barnyard96
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
3:57p, 9/5/24
AG
Always cut the blue wire.


Reply Quote
6
Waffledynamics
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
4:06p, 9/5/24
AG
Sorry guys, I just don't see Trump winning this. Critique the polling methodology all you want, but this is hard to convince me it's fake.





I don't think these pollsters are trying to get it wrong. Maybe I'm just feeling pessimistic, but I don't see Trump overcoming the media.
Reply Quote
4
Barnyard96
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Waffledynamics • 4:09p, 9/5/24
AG
He cant win the electoral college because Harris is up in the popular vote?
Reply Quote
11
aggiehawg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Waffledynamics • 4:10p, 9/5/24
AG
Quote:
I don't think these pollsters are trying to get it wrong. Maybe I'm just feeling pessimistic, but I don't see Trump overcoming the media.
The simple truth is that pollsters have not been able to fully adapt to lack of landlines and overwhelming use of cell phones and how to reach them and get them to respond.

The last week or so I have had five or six texts asking me to participate in a poll. I just ignore them all.
Reply Quote
4
Barnyard96
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
4:13p, 9/5/24
AG
RCP average for PA is tied and trending Trump
Reply Quote
6
Rockdoc
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Waffledynamics • 4:30p, 9/5/24
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Sorry guys, I just don't see Trump winning this. Critique the polling methodology all you want, but this is hard to convince me it's fake.





I don't think these pollsters are trying to get it wrong. Maybe I'm just feeling pessimistic, but I don't see Trump overcoming the media.

Then go ahead and give up (or celebrate) and quit worrying about it. Otherwise, just know these polls right now mean NOTHING.
Reply Quote
4
DonHenley
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
4:30p, 9/5/24
AG
I think Trump can lose the popular vote by up to 2% an still win the EC.
Reply Quote
4
2023NCAggies
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 4:35p, 9/5/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
McCormick being down 11% is totally inconsistent with other polls we have seen out of PA. It likely means they oversampled soft republicans, which is why Trump is only down 1 in the same poll. Good news for Trump in the PA poll IMO.
YouGov polls are complete garbage. And I mean complete garbage. Worst polls I have seen this cycle, or close

Ignore them
Reply Quote
5
JDUB08AG
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Waffledynamics • 4:41p, 9/5/24
AG
You really don't understand how electoral college math works.
Reply Quote
11
aginlakeway
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Waffledynamics • 4:42p, 9/5/24
AG
You know it's September 5, right?
Reply Quote
2
Jack Boyette
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Waffledynamics • 4:47p, 9/5/24
Waffledynamics said:
Sorry guys, I just don't see Trump winning this. Critique the polling methodology all you want, but this is hard to convince me it's fake.





I don't think these pollsters are trying to get it wrong. Maybe I'm just feeling pessimistic, but I don't see Trump overcoming the media.
If she's up in the popular vote (the actual one, not the polling one which always seems to overestimate democrats by a lot) by less than 2%, then he has about a 66% chance of winning the election.
Reply Quote
4
1 edit
2023NCAggies
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to DonHenley • 4:55p, 9/5/24
DonHenley said:
WV, MT, who else? PA?
That is where I am right now. I think Trump carries dead weight Moreno over the finish line. And I think we win a rust belt state surprise. Right now I will say PA, which lmao would be a huge kick to the nuts for Dems. Kasey was looked at as a guaranteed lifer in the senate.

Also there are just so many races, the odds favor at least one win for Rs. I count 6 states we could win, Dems would have to sweep Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, PA, Maryland for it to be 52-48

And I do not believe most of the polls to be honest, they are all over the place and I mean all over the place with the senate candidates.
Reply Quote
1
will25u
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:08p, 9/5/24
It's over folks.

Reply Quote
3
2023NCAggies
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to aggiehawg • 9:27p, 9/5/24
aggiehawg said:
Sununu just said New Hampshire definitely in play and Trump shold win there by 1 to 1.5 points.

Which tracks what the NH journalist on Halperin's stream also said, he believed there was very strong Trump support there.

ETA: In 2016, Trump only lost NH by 2,000 votes.


Trump needs to have events with RFK in places like New Hampshire, North Carolina, Michigan. Nevada

Those are places RFK was doing good or would likely help pull votes
Reply Quote
1
nortex97
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
5:05a, 9/6/24
AG
Nice.



Interesting:



Reply Quote
3
GoAgs92
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
6:53a, 9/6/24
AG
In defense of waffle RCP shows Harris up in most swing states
Reply Quote
2
Waffledynamics
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to nortex97 • 6:55a, 9/6/24
AG
I'm not sure I understand. Two of those posts contradict each other. One says Trump has a better chance of winning. The other says Harris does. Both cite Nate Silver.
Reply Quote
2
2 edits
nortex97
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:08a, 9/6/24
AG
The poly market graph may be the issue; it's from Aug 27.
Reply Quote
3
2023NCAggies
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to GoAgs92 • 7:47a, 9/6/24
GoAgs92 said:
In defense of waffle RCP shows Harris up in most swing states
Look at some of those polls they are factoring in to those averages.

Now go look at how much Biden was ahead in 2020

This is going to be a blowout
Reply Quote
2
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:01a, 9/6/24
AG




Reply Quote
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:02a, 9/6/24
AG
Reply Quote
agsalaska
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to 2023NCAggies • 8:32a, 9/6/24
AG
2023NCAggies said:
GoAgs92 said:
In defense of waffle RCP shows Harris up in most swing states
Look at some of those polls they are factoring in to those averages.

Now go look at how much Biden was ahead in 2020

This is going to be a blowout


You are making the assumption that the pollsters have not adjusted their practices and figured out how to accurately poll Trump supporters. They over counted Republican support in 2022 without Trump on the ballot. It is possible that they are overcounting Republican support again.

Assuming they are going to make the same mistakes three cycles in a row? I wouldn't make that assumption.

That being said I think Trump wins PA and wins by the skin of his teeth.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



Reply Quote
5
cecil77
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to agsalaska • 8:40a, 9/6/24
AG
I don't think it's polling "mistakes" per se. I think it's baked in by the realities of conservative vs liberal.

In general conservatives just want to be left alone. In general liberals want to make a fuss.

So how many conservatives do you have to poll, just to get enough to agree to be polled to make up for that?

And... That discounts the possibilities of intentful bias in polling.

Add to that that many people still just don't want to admit that they're going to vote for Trump, even though they are.
Reply Quote
8
1 edit
Barnyard96
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:44a, 9/6/24
AG
Lots of People come out and vote for Trump in the presidential election and stay home for midterms.
Reply Quote
2
Philip J Fry
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to 2023NCAggies • 8:46a, 9/6/24
AG
2023NCAggies said:
GoAgs92 said:
In defense of waffle RCP shows Harris up in most swing states
Look at some of those polls they are factoring in to those averages.

Now go look at how much Biden was ahead in 2020

This is going to be a blowout


Remove the one Bloomberg stack of polls and it's a different story
Reply Quote
1
First Page Last Page
Page 77 of 165 ▼
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.