ntxVol said:

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If that's true then lower maintenance cost shouldn't be a selling point for EVs. Also, someone is going to get caught paying for previous owner(s) maintenance.

I don't see either as a positive selling point.

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That I can agree with. But if the maintenance cost of an ICE vs the replacement of the batteries in an EV over the life of both is comparable then all this work to attack the cost of batteries in the EV is misleading as well. At first pass it looks like total cost of ownership for 10 years is comparable and that was really my point. Unfortunately it seems the anti-EV crowd is as emotionally attached to their opinion as is the pro-EV side which is unfortunate.

nortex97 said:

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In before "But the batteries are guaranteed for 8 years."

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It is like the market for home inkjet printers. The printer costs $100 new and comes with the small ink cartridges. When they run out, you go to Office Despot and buy $75 worth of replacement cartridges.

Same with EV batteries.

Claverack said:

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Logos Stick said:

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People are tired of Biden and the left forcing EVs down our throats. How much opportunity cost has there been? All the time and materials put into making a bunch of EVs that nobody wants could have been better spent on ICE vehicles, driving the cost down, etc...

Elon is a national treasure and I hope he succeeds, which means selling lots of Teslas.... to people who freely choose to buy them!

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I'm with you. Wish the American left and the Federal Government would get out of the vehicle design business entirely.

If an American wants to buy a vehicle running on diesel, gasoline, electric, or even cooking oil, then that individual should be able to do so without a single word from anyone in DC.

The Federal Government is the reason we no longer see the classic smaller work trucks on the road. They were regulated out of the market by the same people who want to put EVs on a pedestal and eliminate market-based options (for everyone but themselves) in the pursuit of policies related to the quack climate change science.

---

I love my '14 supercharged 495hp V8 powered convertible F-Type.

My wife's '14 Titanium Escape in pearlesence white with an 1.6L Ecoboost is worth about $6k...gearbox took a crap last fall it cost $6k to replace, which is a known problem just as the Focus' gearbox before it. I hope the next thing to go is not the turbo or Ecoboost engine, as that has had reliability issues at high milage, too.

Neither of us are commuters, I drive my Jag 3-4 times a week, if I'm lucky.

I'll be replacing the Escape with the new Tesla compact car, hopefully the Escape gets through the next year or two.

Its not the fuel costs its the maintenance, who needs an oil change every 3 months and dragging it to the dealer where their going to try to gouge you over some senseless service.

Never getting rid of the Jag...and believe me, I've spent some good money I didn't want to on that beast and I do a lot of mechanical work on it myself.

I hate democrats and what they are doing to my country.

BEVs are an emerging tech that most of you luddites refuse to understand. The technology being developed at TESLA (i.e. 48v tech and FSD) will soon enough be licensed to the the legacy OEMs they just don't have the engineering assets that TESLA and SPACE-X have, sorry to tell you.

LOYAL AG said:

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A real economic analysis of the cost of replacing the batteries after 10 years would include the cost savings of operating an EV for that period of time. How much does gas vs electricity cost? Oil changes and other drivetrain maintenance that isn't required for an EV. I haven't even pretended to do that analysis so I won't comment either way. The accurate thing to do would be to compare 10 years of ownership of a Tesla with a comparable ICE sedan whatever the at vehicle is.

Extremely rough math says an ICE car getting 25 MPG with $3 gas is going to cost $150/ just for gas. I've seen people on here say they spend $20/month on electricity for their Tesla so let's raise that to $25. The fuel delta is this $125/month of $15k over a 10 year span. Add in $300/year in oil changes and you're at $18k for an ICE vehicle for items that don't exist in an EV which seems awfully comparable to the cost of the new batteries. This is all based on what I think is an average of 15k miles/year by the way. It doesn't include the fact that every vehicle I've ever owned needed a transmission right around 150k miles, by the way.

Point is I'm thinking the costs are similar over the life of the vehicle.

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Not if you buy it in year 7 or 8. That is the point of the article

Burdizzo said:

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Al Bula said:

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Elon musk may be the greatest scammer ever.

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At least he isn't selling gold tennis shoes to pay his legal fees.

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Will someone create a business of converting these used EV's into combustible engines? Would be fun to see happen.

Quote:

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Long term the auto market would be new EVs for those who can afford them and public transit for those who can't. I personally plan to drive my ICE vehicle like a Cuban.

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I had close to 80K on my Tesla Y before it was hit/totaled. I calculated compared to my previous BMW X5 (very comparable in size/price) that I saved about12K in gas/maintenance assuming no additional X5 repairs. This is not accounting the many hours with maintenance and gas trips. I sold my X5 at 100K miles b/c I spend about 5K in repairs plus needed a 5K+ engine rebuilt. Sold for 15K I believe, bought 55K new, 4-5 yr old car.

For me the Tesla was a no brainer from every measurable metric you can think of. Battery tech is much better. I have close to 17K on my 7 month old MY and degradation is much improved.

Currently, IMO, Tesla compared to a X5 from an economic standpoint tilts way towards the MY. With improved battery tech, its not even comparable.

Now if you are comparing it to a 30K camary, I have no arguments b/c they are different cars with different buyers.

But those who think Teslas depreciate more or cost more to operate than a BMW X5, they have no clue what they are talking about.

I see an opportunity for Tesla and EV dealers to build in (i.e. delete for credit) a battery maintenance fee (i.e. pay that $150/month (roughly equal to savings over ICE costs) and be guaranteed a new battery whenever you need one.

But still, the fandom (as well as anti-fandom) of EVs is 99% ego and wanting to be "right".

You're American. buy what you want, when you want, for the reasons you want. This obsessive need to convince others that you're right (or that you're wrong) is really pretty silly. But... 99% of the negatives are a reaction to draconian goals by the govt, at all levels, combined with annoyance at the EV fanbois.

If they made EV designs more modular instead of highly integrated and "disposable" one piece units, they could be incredibly easy to maintain, repair, and upgrade, but manufacturers don't want that. They want consumption.

captkirk said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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A real economic analysis of the cost of replacing the batteries after 10 years would include the cost savings of operating an EV for that period of time. How much does gas vs electricity cost? Oil changes and other drivetrain maintenance that isn't required for an EV. I haven't even pretended to do that analysis so I won't comment either way. The accurate thing to do would be to compare 10 years of ownership of a Tesla with a comparable ICE sedan whatever the at vehicle is.

Extremely rough math says an ICE car getting 25 MPG with $3 gas is going to cost $150/ just for gas. I've seen people on here say they spend $20/month on electricity for their Tesla so let's raise that to $25. The fuel delta is this $125/month of $15k over a 10 year span. Add in $300/year in oil changes and you're at $18k for an ICE vehicle for items that don't exist in an EV which seems awfully comparable to the cost of the new batteries. This is all based on what I think is an average of 15k miles/year by the way. It doesn't include the fact that every vehicle I've ever owned needed a transmission right around 150k miles, by the way.

Point is I'm thinking the costs are similar over the life of the vehicle.

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Not if you buy it in year 7 or 8. That is the point of the article

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Agree completely. Mrs LOYAL AG and I are actually thinking we may replace her car this year. I told her I'd consider used for an ICE vehicle but Tesla is on our list and for that I want new. If it takes 10 years for the maintenance cost to even out with the batteries why buy a used EV where you only have seven years before you're buying batteries?

Moon Shadow said:

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One of my relatives owned a very slightly used Nissan Leaf in greater Atlanta, GA. The Leaf had been shortly owned by a company that was taken over by another. She had free EV charging stations at her work and charged it at home too. Said it cost about $20 more in electric bills monthly. It was never really low on its charge ever. She said commute in was a lot of "stop" over little "go"! She burnt no charge at stop, other than heater in winter.
In limited situations the EV is "Ok"!

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Yeah they're basically glorified golf carts that can go fast and have air conditioning. They're typically bought by those who could or would play golf, too. This is a rich person's toy.

VitruvianAg said:

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I love my '14 supercharged 495hp V8 powered convertible F-Type.

My wife's '14 Titanium Escape in pearlesence white with an 1.6L Ecoboost is worth about $6k...gearbox took a crap last fall it cost $6k to replace, which is a known problem just as the Focus' gearbox before it. I hope the next thing to go is not the turbo or Ecoboost engine, as that has had reliability issues at high milage, too.

Neither of us are commuters, I drive my Jag 3-4 times a week, if I'm lucky.

I'll be replacing the Escape with the new Tesla compact car, hopefully the Escape gets through the next year or two.

Its not the fuel costs its the maintenance, who needs an oil change every 3 months and dragging it to the dealer where their going to try to gouge you over some senseless service.

Never getting rid of the Jag...and believe me, I've spent some good money I didn't want to on that beast and I do a lot of mechanical work on it myself.

I hate democrats and what they are doing to my country.

BEVs are an emerging tech that most of you luddites refuse to understand. The technology being developed at TESLA (i.e. 48v tech and FSD) will soon enough be licensed to the the legacy OEMs they just don't have the engineering assets that TESLA and SPACE-X have, sorry to tell you.

---

If electric vehicles can survive in the marketplace, without the support and backing of the Federal Government, then I have no problem.

The issue I have is the Democrat Party (along with some in the GOP-E) putting their finger on the scale and forcing the issue on the American public in any kind of manner.

If it is the wave of the future, then it will be proven out in markets around the world. It will be the dominant mode of transportation and it will take place without the influence of bureaucrats who themselves do not own a vehicle and do not understand the concerns of Americans living outside the eastern corridor of power.

But even if it is the future, the market for ICE and other forms of transportation should remain open for Americans to take part in so long as a market for those vehicles exist.

We should have a right to be luddites if we choose to be, especially when the market for the vehicles of our preference still exists and remains robust.

The Federal Government, and the Democrat Party, should get the hell out of the way and let Americans have freedom of choice in transportation.

obligatory:

UTExan said:

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obligatory:

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https://www.ramtrucks.com/revolution/ram-1500-ramcharger.html

LOYAL AG said:

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A real economic analysis of the cost of replacing the batteries after 10 years would include the cost savings of operating an EV for that period of time. How much does gas vs electricity cost? Oil changes and other drivetrain maintenance that isn't required for an EV. I haven't even pretended to do that analysis so I won't comment either way. The accurate thing to do would be to compare 10 years of ownership of a Tesla with a comparable ICE sedan whatever the at vehicle is.

Extremely rough math says an ICE car getting 25 MPG with $3 gas is going to cost $150/ just for gas. I've seen people on here say they spend $20/month on electricity for their Tesla so let's raise that to $25. The fuel delta is this $125/month of $15k over a 10 year span. Add in $300/year in oil changes and you're at $18k for an ICE vehicle for items that don't exist in an EV which seems awfully comparable to the cost of the new batteries. This is all based on what I think is an average of 15k miles/year by the way. It doesn't include the fact that every vehicle I've ever owned needed a transmission right around 150k miles, by the way.

Point is I'm thinking the costs are similar over the life of the vehicle.

---

Your math is pretty good - I calculated that the savings from a Tesla Y over a similar ICE vehicle in fuel/maintenance is at least $1k per 10k miles, so even if you took it right past the 120k warranty and then replaced the battery, you have $12k in savings, which in current dollars should pay for the latest battery replacement.

captkirk said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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A real economic analysis of the cost of replacing the batteries after 10 years would include the cost savings of operating an EV for that period of time. How much does gas vs electricity cost? Oil changes and other drivetrain maintenance that isn't required for an EV. I haven't even pretended to do that analysis so I won't comment either way. The accurate thing to do would be to compare 10 years of ownership of a Tesla with a comparable ICE sedan whatever the at vehicle is.

Extremely rough math says an ICE car getting 25 MPG with $3 gas is going to cost $150/ just for gas. I've seen people on here say they spend $20/month on electricity for their Tesla so let's raise that to $25. The fuel delta is this $125/month of $15k over a 10 year span. Add in $300/year in oil changes and you're at $18k for an ICE vehicle for items that don't exist in an EV which seems awfully comparable to the cost of the new batteries. This is all based on what I think is an average of 15k miles/year by the way. It doesn't include the fact that every vehicle I've ever owned needed a transmission right around 150k miles, by the way.

Point is I'm thinking the costs are similar over the life of the vehicle.

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Not if you buy it in year 7 or 8. That is the point of the article

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Of course it is much cheaper per mile to buy a 7-8 yr old vehicle - that has been the case for ICE vehicles for decades and I expect will be true for well made EVs as well.

Gator92 said:

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I spent most of today chasing electrical gremlins in my son's 96 F150. It has 200K. Cleaned the battery cables and a bunch of grounds. Has an aftermarket alarm w/ starter interruption. Turns out the ground on the alarm needed grounding.

Thing is almost 30 y/o and back on the road.

Try to tell me that buying an EV is better for the environment than keeping this old girl on the road...

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Good job, that is a difficult problem to identify and diagnose.

Ag with kids said:

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GAC06 said:

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What is the failure rate of batteries? Merely stating the length of the warranty and the possible cost of replacement doesn't mean much. ICE vehicles have a warranty that expires and engines and transmissions are also expensive. It doesn't mean all these vehicles explode when they're out of warranty.

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No...but, the likelihood of failure goes way up. Batteries DO have a lifetime.

It's one thing to buy an ICE car that is 10 years old with 150K miles on it and know you'll have to replace the alternator and may the power steering pump in a few years. That will cost 5% of what you're paying for the vehicle.

It's another to know you'll probably have to replace the battery that will cost 75% of the vehicle.

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A simple solution would seem to be, don't replace the entire battery module. Design it with individual cells which can be swapped out as they wear out. Then you won't have a giant ticking time bomb that will total the car in 10 years.

JamesE4 said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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A real economic analysis of the cost of replacing the batteries after 10 years would include the cost savings of operating an EV for that period of time. How much does gas vs electricity cost? Oil changes and other drivetrain maintenance that isn't required for an EV. I haven't even pretended to do that analysis so I won't comment either way. The accurate thing to do would be to compare 10 years of ownership of a Tesla with a comparable ICE sedan whatever the at vehicle is.

Extremely rough math says an ICE car getting 25 MPG with $3 gas is going to cost $150/ just for gas. I've seen people on here say they spend $20/month on electricity for their Tesla so let's raise that to $25. The fuel delta is this $125/month of $15k over a 10 year span. Add in $300/year in oil changes and you're at $18k for an ICE vehicle for items that don't exist in an EV which seems awfully comparable to the cost of the new batteries. This is all based on what I think is an average of 15k miles/year by the way. It doesn't include the fact that every vehicle I've ever owned needed a transmission right around 150k miles, by the way.

Point is I'm thinking the costs are similar over the life of the vehicle.

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Your math is pretty good - I calculated that the savings from a Tesla Y over a similar ICE vehicle in fuel/maintenance is at least $1k per 10k miles, so even if you took it right past the 120k warranty and then replaced the battery, you have $12k in savings, which in current dollars should pay for the latest battery replacement.

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In practical terms, assuming the math here is aligned, then you would still have to factor that with the Tesla you are out a large lump sum payment to replace a battery vs absorbing monthly costs along the way with an ICE. TCO may be the same but the dollars are spent differently.

Most people IRL are not going to put away those EV savings along the way to budget for a battery replacement at the end of life. That's not really our problem to worry about. It's up to the individual to be responsible....but we all know 99% people are not going to ever even consider doing this. They are simply going to worry that they will be out a large lump sum of money at the end that they won't be able to cover and that's that.

That's also assuming that you'd need to replace the battery at 120k which isn't a safe assumption

GAC06 said:

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Well eventually there will be more used batteries available as the market grows and stabilizes. When someone's engine or transmission dies in a 150,000 mile car, they aren't typically buying a new one.

But that's not the point. It's a clickbait article that offered nothing to support the claim that batteries are dying and it's hurting used EV prices. What's hurt them is the crappy EV's government interference resulted in, and Tesla dropping prices while continually improving their vehicles.

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I think the issue is that those batteries are used. Which means their limited life cycle is partially done. It's not a case like engines and transmissions where they're easily rebuilt. They're basically one shot items that have to be fully replaced at the end of their life. Maybe that changes in the future but right now, that's where we're at.

And there's lots of people that would get the transmission or engine rebuilt on those 150K vehicles. It would be cheaper to them than buying a whole new vehicle. Lots of people keep that used car market going.

Now, when more and more cars start needing replacement batteries, maybe a 3rd party industry will pop up and fill that niche in the EV world (Because I think the EV OEM will have enough on their plate building batteries just for the cars they sell). That would be a good deal.

As to the article, the concept is still correct even if they also leave out your point about govt interference and Tesla dropping prices.

SchizoAg said:

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Ag with kids said:

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GAC06 said:

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What is the failure rate of batteries? Merely stating the length of the warranty and the possible cost of replacement doesn't mean much. ICE vehicles have a warranty that expires and engines and transmissions are also expensive. It doesn't mean all these vehicles explode when they're out of warranty.

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No...but, the likelihood of failure goes way up. Batteries DO have a lifetime.

It's one thing to buy an ICE car that is 10 years old with 150K miles on it and know you'll have to replace the alternator and may the power steering pump in a few years. That will cost 5% of what you're paying for the vehicle.

It's another to know you'll probably have to replace the battery that will cost 75% of the vehicle.

---

A simple solution would seem to be, don't replace the entire battery module. Design it with individual cells which can be swapped out as they wear out. Then you won't have a giant ticking time bomb that will total the car in 10 years.

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That is a great idea. Actually not sure why it isn't the norm.

DallasAg 94 said:

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Ag with kids said:

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DallasAg 94 said:

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You can't sell a used computer.

EVs were touted as computers on wheels.

Why would anyone think the used EV would retain value?!

I have a stack of used laptops that have no value.

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I'll give you $20 for the stack.

Shoulda bought a Mac

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My stack would be twice as high and cost me 3 times as much.

I haven't used an Apple computer since the Apple II GS.

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A number of years back I sold a 6 year old Macbook that had a cracked screened and fried motherboard from a glass of water being poured on it (I love my children, I love my children). I got $350 for it on Ebay.

At least there is some decent resale value with Macs...

Charpie said:

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Part of the issue with the value of Teslas is how much the new ones don't cost. Elon drove the price of the newer ones down. The market is flooded with them now.

I don't get the obsession with electric vehicles.

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It's not so much that Elon drove the price of newer ones down, it's that those prices fell as the market and tech matured - think HDTVs.

The first 32 in HDTVs were hella expensive when they came out compared to CRTs...the early adopters always pay the high price to bring the product into the bigger market.

It appears Tesla has helped do the same things.

Ag with kids said:

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Charpie said:

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Part of the issue with the value of Teslas is how much the new ones don't cost. Elon drove the price of the newer ones down. The market is flooded with them now.

I don't get the obsession with electric vehicles.

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It's not so much that Elon drove the price of newer ones down, it's that those prices fell as the market and tech matured - think HDTVs.

The first 32 in HDTVs were hella expensive when they came out compared to CRTs...the early adopters always pay the high price to bring the product into the bigger market.

It appears Tesla has helped do the same things.

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For sure.

I don't get the allure myself. I prefer my hybrid Lexus

Ag with kids said:

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DallasAg 94 said:

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Ag with kids said:

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DallasAg 94 said:

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You can't sell a used computer.

EVs were touted as computers on wheels.

Why would anyone think the used EV would retain value?!

I have a stack of used laptops that have no value.

---

I'll give you $20 for the stack.

Shoulda bought a Mac

---

My stack would be twice as high and cost me 3 times as much.

I haven't used an Apple computer since the Apple II GS.

---

A number of years back I sold a 6 year old Macbook that had a cracked screened and fried motherboard from a glass of water being poured on it (I love my children, I love my children). I got $350 for it on Ebay.

At least there is some decent resale value with Macs...

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And they got ALL of your pr0n. Every mpeg.

JAW3336 said:

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Ag with kids said:

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sanangelo said:

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Used Teslas seem pretty pricey on Car Gurus.

I thought I could get a deal when I read this thread.

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That 2019 Model 3 in the top right retailed for $56190 in 2019...

To further that example, in 2019 a Dodge Hellcat was $60695 and now retails for around $53000...

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How about we compare something a little more apples to apples.

Like a cadillac sedan to Tesla, or a BMW.

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Ok. You go find those examples.

Ag with kids said:

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Charpie said:

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Part of the issue with the value of Teslas is how much the new ones don't cost. Elon drove the price of the newer ones down. The market is flooded with them now.

I don't get the obsession with electric vehicles.

---

It's not so much that Elon drove the price of newer ones down, it's that those prices fell as the market and tech matured - think HDTVs.

The first 32 in HDTVs were hella expensive when they came out compared to CRTs...the early adopters always pay the high price to bring the product into the bigger market.

It appears Tesla has helped do the same things.

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Or… Tesla sales are down and they're desperately trying to prop them up.

BigRobSA said:

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Ag with kids said:

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DallasAg 94 said:

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Ag with kids said:

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DallasAg 94 said:

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You can't sell a used computer.

EVs were touted as computers on wheels.

Why would anyone think the used EV would retain value?!

I have a stack of used laptops that have no value.

---

I'll give you $20 for the stack.

Shoulda bought a Mac

---

My stack would be twice as high and cost me 3 times as much.

I haven't used an Apple computer since the Apple II GS.

---

A number of years back I sold a 6 year old Macbook that had a cracked screened and fried motherboard from a glass of water being poured on it (I love my children, I love my children). I got $350 for it on Ebay.

At least there is some decent resale value with Macs...

---

And they got ALL of your pr0n. Every mpeg.

---

Not without the HD I pulled out, they didn't.

That was some good pr0n. Not giving it away.

Ag with kids said:

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Quote:

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A number of years back I sold a 6 year old Macbook that had a cracked screened and fried motherboard from a glass of water being poured on it (I love my children, I love my children). I got $350 for it on Ebay.

At least there is some decent resale value with Macs...

---

Quote:

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And they got ALL of your pr0n. Every mpeg.

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Not without the HD I pulled out, they didn't.

That was some good pr0n. Not giving it away.

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Good man!

Anyone who says its a golf cart just shows their bias and ignorance.

The goal of musk was to make EVs get to parity.

When a comparable EV (i.e. model Y to Lexus) had the model Y 20%+ more expensive, haters said it would never sale b/c its too high. A glorified golf cart with many flaws for 20% more than a Lexus.

When a Tesla lowers their prices 20-40%, haters now said they can't sell them so they must lower their price.

So what do haters want? Tesla will be cheaper than ICE cars within 2-3 years for a comparable car. What are they going to say then?

If the Chinese EVs ever come to the US, ICE will be dead. EVs are much simpler to make, maintain, and will be much cheaper to buy. I don't see how ICE will survive because when battery costs go down and can prove to last 300K miles (I think they are there), price/costs will win out.