Russia/Ukraine from Another Perspective (Relaunch Part Deux)

599,615 Views | 9859 Replies | Last: 6 hrs ago by nortex97
Teslag
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Several of those articles cited Ukrainian military officials. I mean, they may not be a single junior officer tank commander but few are*.




Actually it's not that few, you can go to Bliss or Hood and throw a rock and hit 50 tank commanders.
PlaneCrashGuy
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Oh they're Ukrainian? Thats all you had to say. Ukrainians have never lied before. Now I totally believe you.
Ag with kids
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OPAG said:

I am curious if either one of you (Tesla and Ag with Kid) have any clue about the repeated history of Russian military tactics. I mean it's like wow.

Russia has never ever had any problem with yielding territory to an invader.

In this situation if they really wanted to they could shift forces out of the Donbass area, they choose not to because they don't need to. LOL

Again a simple understanding of Russian strategy will indicate that they are just fine with letting Ukraine expand resources men (and now women) to make basically a meaningless incursion into Russia (other then PR and propaganda).

They know that Ukraine is very limited in what they can do here. Again, Russia is fighting as they do a long haul war, that they know, (unless there is serious commitment from NATO and the US) that they are going to win.

.
It is not 1917 or 1941 anymore.

Bullets for bodies is not a strategy that will win for them in today's combat.
Ag with kids
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nortex97 said:

Scholz is skeptical about the Kursk PR campaign:


I find this interesting...

Quote:

Berlin has long opposed lifting the ban on Ukraine's use of Western weapons to target Russia but reversed course in late May amid growing calls to lift the restrictions.

The Bundestag's Defense Committee Chair Marcus Faber said that German-supplied equipment may be used in Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast.


Ag with kids
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OPAG said:

Reading comprehension is lacking.

I said the eastern part with the large Russian ethnic majority, including Crimea will be incorporated into Russia.

The rest of Ukraine will be a buffer state that the west has to basically take care, rebuild, etc.

The west and NATO are all for this war until it really starts costing them Is France going to send troops. Germany no way their populace will rise up and kick them out.

Who is sending troops to Ukraine? NOBODY,
If it becomes a buffer state, it will be a NATO buffer state. Which is what you've been claiming Putin/Russia doesn't want.

Interesting...
Ag with kids
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OPAG said:

Yea, sure, We'll see. Just like the vax was safe and effective right.

The rebuilding of what is left of Ukraine is going to take some time and resources. Who is paying for that?

And Russia after having successfully WON is just going to go OK. you can join NATO. Nah aint' happening.
What does the vax have to do with this discussion?

And, if the west is taking care of Ukraine, why wouldn't it join NATO? Is Russia going to invade it again since they've done so well the last 2.5 years?
Ag with kids
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nortex97 said:

The easiest/most exigent answer would be to allow some remnant around Kiev to join Nato, contingent on us concurrently leaving Nato. Russia can have the resources/port/pipelines etc, rebuild the cities/energy infrastructure without our tax dollars, and we are unburdened by what has been. Hopefully Trump goes with such a proposal.


So, in over a year, Russia has captured approximately as much as Ukraine has captured in the past 2 weeks?

Not a bad trade IMHO.
girlfriend_experience
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Ag with kids said:

nortex97 said:

The easiest/most exigent answer would be to allow some remnant around Kiev to join Nato, contingent on us concurrently leaving Nato. Russia can have the resources/port/pipelines etc, rebuild the cities/energy infrastructure without our tax dollars, and we are unburdened by what has been. Hopefully Trump goes with such a proposal.


So, in over a year, Russia has captured approximately as much as Ukraine has captured in the past 2 weeks?

Not a bad trade IMHO.


I thought the kursk invasion was supposed to pull Russian assets from the front line ?
Ag with kids
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J. Walter Weatherman said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:

OPAG said:

Yea, sure, We'll see. Just like the vax was safe and effective right.

The rebuilding of what is left of Ukraine is going to take some time and resources. Who is paying for that?

And Russia after having successfully WON is just going to go OK. you can join NATO. Nah aint' happening.


Russia doesn't get to dictate what defensive alliances an independent country gets to join. Once the fighting is over, most likely with borders pretty close to where they are now, Ukraine will join NATO and Russia won't be able to invade again. Which is likely why they want to drag the fighting on as long as possible.


The fighting will go on until Ukraine can actually stop Russia- which they can't do. It will take troops from another nation.

While the propaganda press touts the PR offensive as effective, it just isnt so. If you listened to the interview with the German Tank Commander posted recently you will recall he stated Russia has still gained more this year than Uke has in their recent offensive.


They're both waiting out the election, once that's over my guess is that Putin stops pushing much further and the lines end up not far from where they are now - outside of Ukraine's current incursion (since unlike Russia they aren't interested in occupying another country's land).

Then ideally the rest of Ukraine joins NATO and we get relative peace for the near future.
Putin CANNOT allow the lines to be drawn with Ukraine having part of Russia. It is WAY more important to him than giving away larger parts of occupied Ukraine.

That will change the negotiations...
Ag with kids
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

Oh they're Ukrainian? Thats all you had to say. Ukrainians have never lied before. Now I totally believe you.
As opposed to the Russian sources that you've been taking as 100% accurate?

The Ukrainians, however bad they are, are actually more believable than the Russians on this subject.
nortex97
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It was, and all they got was a single brigade/formation pulled from Sevastopol. All they tangibly obtained was some PR and looted some stores and churches (gross images of looted icons/paintings being auctioned online).





Sitrep: Nuke saber rattling.

Updates; can skip to around 12 minutes for a decent discussion of UFA defensive tactics/layered defenses: TLDW, without the elite brigades (82nd etc) to dive in and halt Russian advances, because they are being chewed up in Kursk, the Donbas advances can't be blunted.



PlaneCrashGuy
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Ag with kids said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

Oh they're Ukrainian? Thats all you had to say. Ukrainians have never lied before. Now I totally believe you.
As opposed to the Russian sources that you've been taking as 100% accurate?

The Ukrainians, however bad they are, are actually more believable than the Russians on this subject.


That is your opinion. And its not supported by evidence.

I'm also citing a German who recently visited the front line, not a Russian, so its a straw man anyways.
Pumpkinhead
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I've consistently seen predictions that Ukraine is completely exhausted and nearly finished for about the last 24 months.

Both sides at this point are no doubt chewed up pretty good.

Here is geo-politic guru Peter Zeihan's latest and greatest take:

Ukraine Pushes Into Russia, Yet Nukes Didn't Fly... || Peter Zeihan (youtube.com)

He feels one of the most significant things about the Kursk incursion is Russia relatively passive and toothless response. It has shown that Russia's 'red line' isn't crossing their international borders, so the Western leadership is probably about to get less conservative knowing Russia is either unable or unwilling to respond nuclear, and give blessing and weapons to the Ukrainians allowing them to open up the playbook even more.

He gives his opinion how tapped out both Russia and Ukraine are at this point. That both sides are scraping the barrels for manpower. Because while Russia has the larger population, it has to consider risks of a domestic political crisis so it can't just draft everyone in sight and throw them into the meat grinder.
nortex97
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Thx. Zeihan I used to respect a moderate amount, but really I think he has sort of lost his analytical insights (not real sure why, maybe trying to appeal to partisans on both/all sides for clicks?). They're not real fact-based, imho. In this instance, I don't see any evidence Russia is materially 'tapped out' from a munitions, manpower, or ability to strike the Ardenne pocket the Ukrainians have put their elite forces in. In fact, the opposite.

I think it's tactically useful (to the Russians) to keep them there, in fact, vs. at the real front in the Donbas, per the video (1st one) above I posted today.

Bigger picture, post WW2, is that we have consistently lost at least since the end/truce in Korea, in broader conflicts where our foreign policy establishment/MIC/blob/State Department has directed our wars, when viewed with a long-term lens. Sure, some battles won but we can't hold onto those gains to develop either allies or freedom for peoples involved (limited exception being Kuwait, though that's not a 'free' country of course and is also home to various Hamas/terrorist elements to this day). My position is that a radical change in strategy/policy is needed to change that trend line.

The 'real parties involved' in Ukraine don't care one iota about the Ukrainian people, or 'democracy' or freedom etc. It's about power and money. Meanwhile, the war continues to strengthen the BRICS alliance further, with Azerbaijan being the latest to tilt that way.
Quote:

While Azerbaijan maintains a stance of strict neutrality in certain areas, it is also unafraid to express its views openly. Baku recognizes that the formation of a new world order is not mere fiction but a reality unfolding before our eyes. Trusting relationships between the leadership of both nations play a significant role in this development. Notably, during the meeting between Putin and Ilham Aliyev, the prospects of Azerbaijan joining BRICS and the SCO were discussed, signaling Baku's readiness to define its foreign policy priorities.

This does not mean Azerbaijan is ready to sever ties with the West; however, European capitals particularly Paris, Brussels, and London have made it clear through their provocative behavior toward Azerbaijan that they do not intend to treat it as an equal partner, thus leaving Baku with little option. Azerbaijan has crafted its foreign policy to safeguard its interests without yielding to Western demands. In simple terms, Baku will not sacrifice its national interests merely to appease the Collective West.

Recently, neighboring Georgia has adopted a similar perspective. For decades, it constrained itself by commitments to the West, hoping to become an ally at the expense of its relationship with Russia. Now, Georgia is openly pushing back against the West, recognizing that its own interests take precedence over illusory European promises, which have yielded nothing but a deterioration of ties with Moscow.

Increasingly, voices in Georgia are calling for the normalization of relations with Russia, looking to Azerbaijan's experience under Aliyev's leadership, which has embraced pragmatism in its dealings with neighbors such as Russia, Iran, and Turkey thus establishing them as close partners.
America, and Americans, are not winning via our participation in this conflict/support for Kiev, imho.
Pumpkinhead
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How much you buy into or not that the U.S. should be supporting Ukraine may be largely linked into how much you buy into that there is a Cold War going on and the importance of having a strong NATO alliance and being the leader of it as a counter weight versus the non-Western democracy group of China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, etc.

Had Russia invaded Ukraine and the U.S. said 'Eh, irrelevant to us' and did nothing even though many of our NATO allies in Europe were very concerned with that going down in their neighborhood, well then you are basically saying keeping NATO allies happy, keeping that alliance as an important part of your military deterrent and security interest...isn't that important.

China, Iran, North Korea, etc. are helping Russia in various ways in this Ukraine conflict. They are not 'sitting it out'. Ukraine is no more directly important to them than to us. But they are involved for 'Cold War' reasons. Had we sat this one out, sending an 'America First' message to our own allies and our adversaries, well...there are long term global strategic consequences to that.

Folks can argue about it all day long...it is very very complicated. I respect folks who are against war. Personally, I wish it hadn't happened of course but I support what the USA has done the past couple of years regarding its part because Russia just flat out invading and going for Kiev in 2022 was too much at that point to simply ignore. They were allowed to grab Crimea in 2014 with relative ease and then this follow-up in 2022 freaked our Western allies out.

I think over the past 30 years there were mistakes made by the West pushing and allowing NATO expansion too far - that contributed to this. Russia of course is led by a dictatorship and is not blameless either. If you were a Russia posting about the government the way you are allowed to post about the U.S. government, you'd be pushing rocks in a Siberian prison right now. Never forget that. But It is horrible and lots of people (Russians and Ukrainians) have died. At some point, some sort of negotiated peace is going to have to occur, which will take both sides willing to 'negotiate'. We are maybe getting closer to that point. Hard to say.
nortex97
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Quote:

How much you buy into or not that the U.S. should be supporting Ukraine may be largely linked into how much you buy into that there is a Cold War going on and the importance of having a strong NATO alliance and being the leader of it as a counter weight versus the non-Western democracy group of China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, etc.
Quoting just this part so as not to be too long-winded, but I don't get it. If the argument there is a new 'cold war' going on then my question is who is on what side? The Democrats/warhawks in DC strongly support the CCP, if in fact they aren't controlled by them.

What is the relevance of Nato (to America)? I don't see it. We are told over and over that Russia 'can't mount an offensive,' for instance, yet the above (often repeated) riposte, and fact that nato member Hungary and Turkey (among others) have growing alignments with China and the BRICS folks belies this assertion. Is it a military defensive organization that has somehow been hiding that fact for the past 30 years? I don't see it. Is it an organization that will come to America's defense if we are attacked? Probably not: none of the European powers really have any power projection capabilities outside of Europe to speak of.

Instead of worrying about a 'strong' nato, we should worry about exiting it so the Euro's can be adults in the room again and focus on their own security, and Nato can then be less provocative toward revolutions/wars outside the organization's boundary. The Cold War was won by developing efficient, advanced economies and NOT provoking/stoking war with the Soviets, while sufficiently investing in defense. The EU, and Nato are anything but pursuing that strategy, today.

The open borders green new deal WEF left operating politically as dominant actors within Nato, the EU, and the US policy establishment, are not the rightful heirs/victors of the Cold War many perceive them to be, imho, even if they haven't changed the flags/uniforms that much since 1989.
nortex97
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Wow, one of the three issues driving RFK's decision to strongly endorse Trump/condemn Harris was the Ukraine proxy war (free speech being another, which is related):
Quote:

Later, Kennedy said that the three issues that had motivated him to run for president were free speech, children's health, and the war in Ukraine. And he said that Harris's speech to the Democratic convention had convinced him that she would continue the war in Ukraine, whereas former President Trump had promised to negotiate its end.


"Judging by [Harris's] bellicose, belligerent speech last night in Chicago, we can assume that 'President Harris' will be an enthusiastic advocate for this and other neocon military adventures. (Harris had boasted to the convention: "I helped mobilize a global response over 50 countries to defend against Putin's aggression. And as president, I will stand strong with Ukraine and our NATO allies.")

Kennedy said that Trump had offered him the opportunity to work in his administration to solve the problems facing American public health and nutrition, and restore science to what he said had become a regulatory process dominated by the pharmaceutical industry. He said that despite the political and personal difficulty he would face as a result of supporting Trump, he felt that he had to do whatever he could to help save the lives of children in America.


Sad, really:
nortex97
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It's weird how we can have long form discussions with folks for a while, and then nothing.

Sitrep: Ukraine continues to unspool.
Quote:

Now that the Kursk offensive has stalled, the only next step Zelensky has up the escalation ladder is begging the US for 'permission' to conduct longer range strikes with US weaponry. The key point everyone misses about this though is that this approval is not about accurately or powerfully hitting Russian targets.

No, it's all about simply getting NATO as involved as possible in crossing Russia's 'red lines' in order to provoke a conflict between the two.
[url=https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb0cb0c3a-80ff-449c-9c37-fc6549d57b8d_894x211.png][/url]
Not only does the new Politico article above imply this, it even offers us an interesting insight about why the US is hesitant to lift restrictions:
Syrsky's slide is interesting to be sure, and quite an admission, as to how much Ukraine is being 'outgunned.'



OPAG
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I have been out of pocket the last few days, so I have not been able to respond.

Lot has happened in those days. But the most impactful is RFKjrs endorsement of Trump for three reasons.

One of those reasons was what this particular thread is about.

And he so correctly states the reality of what it is and was in his speech when he suspends his campaign.

here is that speech queued up to where he talks about the Ukraine war, He is spot on target:



OPAG
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[Seems like a waste of time to type out long posts that make comments about Moderators. They will get deleted when we see them and you will risk time off. To be clear, it has nothing to do with your viewpoint about this subject. -Staff]

nortex97
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Thx for joining the thread again Opag. Some updates;









I really don't understand what Zelensky-Syrsky is doing with the Kursk pocket/cauldron. Is the latter really just a double agent? I had dismissed that partly because the Russians seem to genuinely hate his guts, but the more he wastes there, it seems plausible.
PlaneCrashGuy
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Hearing rolling blackouts throughout. Sound like Ukrainian energy infrastructure has officially been decimated.

I know a few patriots were destroyed recently but maybe total AD had been decimated as well? Doesn't seem to be very many reports of interceptions.
I'm not sure if people genuinely believe someone is going to say, "Wow, if some people say I'm a moron for not believing this, it clearly must be true."

It's not much a persuasive argument. It really just sounds like a bunch of miniature dachshunds barking because the first one one barked when it thought it heard something.
GoAgs11
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You gotta love it two weeks ago UKE was going to march to Moscow with their invasion of Kursk meanwhile in reality slowly getting squeezed by Russian forces in UKE.
Teslag
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Who said Ukraine was going to "march to Moscow"?
Teslag
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

Hearing rolling blackouts throughout. Sound like Ukrainian energy infrastructure has officially been decimated.

I know a few patriots were destroyed recently but maybe total AD had been decimated as well? Doesn't seem to be very many reports of interceptions.
https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/26-august-ukrainian-air-defense-shot-down-102-of-127-missiles


Quote:

Ukrainian air defense shot down 102 of 127 missiles of different types and 99 of 109 Shahed drones
nortex97
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That really contradicts the data Syrsky reported last week, which was something closer to 10-25 percent as I recall? Not sure how that suddenly changed. Surely the…more spread out Air Defense assets up around Kursk led to…vastly better shoot down rates, blackouts notwithstanding?

I mean, really, it's just a laughable claim. Thank you for pointing it out.



Ramifications ahead from Zelensky whining at Modi/India posture with Russia.

Teslag
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I read your link. Syrsky was giving a percentage of targets shot down since February of 2022. Using that as a current analysis of ability is silly since what Ukraine is using now is not nearly the same as what they had in theater 2 and a half years ago.

This is why you cannot simply take those Twitter references at face value without actually taking the the time to transcribe the articles from Ukrainian into English and see what they actually say. Which is what I just did.


Quote:

The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrsky, reported that since February 24, 2022, Russian missiles and drones hit 11,879 targets in Ukraine, of which 6,203 were civilian targets, and 5,676 were military targets.

The efficiency of interception of Kalibr, Kh-555/101 and R-500 cruise missiles against the Iskander air defense missile defense system was 67%. Kh-59, Kh-35, Kh-31 and other similar guided missiles - 22%. The difference in the interception of these two similar types of targets is explained by the fact that guided missiles are usually launched by the enemy at front-line or border facilities, where it is not possible to echelon air defense equipment.

As for drones, the Shahed-136 has been combined with the Lancets in statistics, the total number of this group is 13,315 units launched and 8,836 units intercepted - 63%.

In addition, this article which you posted as a trustworthy, also shows that Russia is targeting more civilian than military assets.
nortex97
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Glad we can agree Syrsky and Ukrainian Pravda is a good source at least.

I think the admission last week that they have been lying so thoroughly/completely about shoot-down rates throughout the war belies the claims they this week are shooting down almost everything, while lamenting not having sufficient ADA assets/donations, can lead one to one's own conclusions as to the latest claims, but respect that some will not accept that.

Though, the admitted (also via Ukrainian Pravda) concern as to their power generation capacity and outages seems to support my read strongly.
Teslag
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Quote:

I think the admission last week that they have been lying

When did they lie? Be specific. I haven't found any numbers they gave for shootdown analysis for a recent window of time. Can you?
nortex97
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Teslag said:


Quote:

I think the admission last week that they have been lying

When did they lie? Be specific. I haven't found any numbers they gave for shootdown analysis for a recent window of time. Can you?
They've consistently reported this stuff.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-military-says-it-downs-all-20-drones-launched-by-russia-2024-05-17/

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-shoots-down-all-russian-drones-attack-kyiv-1932529

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/07/31/ukraine-says-it-shot-down-all-89-russian-drones-in-largest-attack-in-7-months

It's never been believable, imho, more like a Chip Brown/Ketch pre-season write up on sip football.
Teslag
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I get that.

But you're basing the claim of it being a "lie" on them giving a percentage of shootdowns from a window of February of 2022 to the Present and then applying that to current claims. That's ridiculous and fails and real scrutiny. Western air defenses didn't start showing up until May of 2023.

I get what you're trying to do. You're trying to take that analysis of two and a half years of intercepts and use it as some gotcha moment to claim it's a "lie". It's simply misrepresenting a set of data to try and make a point.

nortex97
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Similarly, Russia didn't spool up drone and missile production until that time frame, and wasn't raining attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure to nearly the same degree as this year, or the past two weeks even.

It's disingenuous, or at least unbelievable to me to claim the long term shoot down rate (or gross failure) is based on real data from 2022, without statistical analysis to back that up, while claiming it must be accurate now that they are shooting virtually everything down, despite the…actual reporting/footage in Ukraine.

Meanwhile…in the here and now;





PlaneCrashGuy
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No clue on the accuracy of this caption/location of this video- but the accusation levied is too large not to share. I wonder if we will see Ukraine moving AD closer to the capital? It sounds like Russia is advancing in the Donetsk region as fast as we've ever seen since this thing kicked off.



I'm also seeing several folks echo this sentiment, but I'm not convinced there are handcuffs holding Uke back. I'm relatively certain that Uke would not listen anyway, if these imaginary handcuffs were real. (Nordstream)
I'm not sure if people genuinely believe someone is going to say, "Wow, if some people say I'm a moron for not believing this, it clearly must be true."

It's not much a persuasive argument. It really just sounds like a bunch of miniature dachshunds barking because the first one one barked when it thought it heard something.
GAC06
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Have ATACMS been used within Russia? Seems pretty clear there are restrictions in place.
PlaneCrashGuy
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GAC06 said:

Have ATACMS been used within Russia? Seems pretty clear there are restrictions in place.


Using Occams Razor, Ukrainian incompetence is a much more viable explanation IMO.
I'm not sure if people genuinely believe someone is going to say, "Wow, if some people say I'm a moron for not believing this, it clearly must be true."

It's not much a persuasive argument. It really just sounds like a bunch of miniature dachshunds barking because the first one one barked when it thought it heard something.
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