Russia/Ukraine from Another Perspective (Relaunch Part Deux)

484,778 Views | 9120 Replies | Last: 6 hrs ago by YouBet
Mongolian Christmas
How long do you want to ignore this user?
GAC06 said:

nortex97 said:

He's right of course; the balance of the following all are in Russia's favor and will increasingly be the case moving forward;
  • Balance of manpower
  • Balance of artillery
  • Balance of air superiority

None of that is going to change, including if somehow Biden agrees to secure the American border to send 60 billion to Kiev, and 12 or so F-16 pilots start flying around in 30 year old MLU frames.



Wait, are intelligence bases bad now?





Whoa a beach promenade? How gracious of the benevolent conquerors to build such amenities after leveling the city and slaughtering its inhabitants.


Isn't that exactly what we did in Iraq? Destroy a nation based on lies, kill a million people, then rebuild it using taxpayer money paid to crony corporations.
Teslag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Similar. We didn't want Iraq to be the 51st state like Russia does with Ukraine. Though our actions were still wrong in gulf war two.
GAC06
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Mongolian Christmas said:

GAC06 said:

nortex97 said:

He's right of course; the balance of the following all are in Russia's favor and will increasingly be the case moving forward;
  • Balance of manpower
  • Balance of artillery
  • Balance of air superiority

None of that is going to change, including if somehow Biden agrees to secure the American border to send 60 billion to Kiev, and 12 or so F-16 pilots start flying around in 30 year old MLU frames.



Wait, are intelligence bases bad now?





Whoa a beach promenade? How gracious of the benevolent conquerors to build such amenities after leveling the city and slaughtering its inhabitants.


Isn't that exactly what we did in Iraq? Destroy a nation based on lies, kill a million people, then rebuild it using taxpayer money paid to crony corporations.


Yeah. I have my next beach vacation set for Basra. Great beaches and promenades we built there.

Of course first we had to destroy the city, slaughter its inhabitants, kidnap their children, then annex them as part of our country. We did that in Iraq right?
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG




Yep.

But, yay war!



No idea why Russia would be provoked by nato expansionism and rhetoric and bases in Ukraine;

Teslag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I like how the same poster that tells us there was no need for NATO to exist after 1991 is the same on that tells us that Russia is well within their right to ignore their 1991 recognition of Ukrainian sovereignty and invade them anyway.
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG


Oh but we have to risk nuclear war over our Biden-determined potential nato partners being threatened by the Russian bear which…'cannot mount an offensive.' George Washington was obviously wrong.
Teslag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I see we are back to the nuclear war boogeyman man again.
PA24
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Let the old world go and focus on the treasures to be won in the western hemisphere.
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Teslag said:

I see we are back to the nuclear war boogeyman man again.
Where did you source your snark about '200 T-90's a month' again from? Are you able to document that lie?
Teslag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
nortex97 said:

Teslag said:

I see we are back to the nuclear war boogeyman man again.
Where did you source your snark about '200 T-90's a month' again from? Are you able to document that lie?


Yes, it was posted by you. And it's been a meme since.
PlaneCrashGuy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG


nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Teslag said:

nortex97 said:

Teslag said:

I see we are back to the nuclear war boogeyman man again.
Where did you source your snark about '200 T-90's a month' again from? Are you able to document that lie?


Yes, it was posted by you. And it's been a meme since.
So, just another lie. Your repetition of a lie doesn't make it…accurate. Thank you for confirming. For the rest of the board; I never claimed that. This is a classic bit of propaganda/lies/delusion from the poster above.

Trust in the war command structure/leadership, everyone.


Teslag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
He absolutely did claim that and GAC, Ag With Kids and others can verify. It was as absurd then as it is now
PlaneCrashGuy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
And we know he's lying because he'll do anything but link it. All Uke has are lies.
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Teslag said:

He absolutely did claim that and GAC, Ag With Kids and others can verify. It was as absurd then as it is now
I'll await your citation since I clearly claimed 200 T-90's would be produced per month. Or, alternatively, you'll be proven yet again to be a liar.
Teslag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
nortex97 said:

Teslag said:

He absolutely did claim that and GAC, Ag With Kids and others can verify. It was as absurd then as it is now
I'll await your citation since I clearly claimed 200 T-90's would be produced per month. Or, alternatively, you'll be proven yet again to be a liar.


Right. Just like when we linked your ridiculous claim that Ukraine would cease to exist in "weeks" and you just spun yourself in circles. You simply don't own up to anything. Just like another thread tonight where you claimed Tesla owners can hack their cars and change battery health results.
PlaneCrashGuy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Teslag said:

nortex97 said:

Teslag said:

He absolutely did claim that and GAC, Ag With Kids and others can verify. It was as absurd then as it is now
I'll await your citation since I clearly claimed 200 T-90's would be produced per month. Or, alternatively, you'll be proven yet again to be a liar.


Right. Just like when we linked your ridiculous claim that Ukraine would cease to exist in "weeks" and you just spun yourself in circles. You simply don't own up to anything. Just like another thread tonight where you claimed Tesla owners can hack their cars and change battery health results.


At least link it for everyone else to see it, if it exists.
Mongolian Christmas
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I remember when the Wagner group leader was advancing on Moscow and passing through towns. Old men were fighting in the streets due to taking sides. So much of this going on here. So stupid how people attach themselves to things that have no impact on their lives and are here posting all day.
Teslag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
PlaneCrashGuy said:

Teslag said:

nortex97 said:

Teslag said:

He absolutely did claim that and GAC, Ag With Kids and others can verify. It was as absurd then as it is now
I'll await your citation since I clearly claimed 200 T-90's would be produced per month. Or, alternatively, you'll be proven yet again to be a liar.


Right. Just like when we linked your ridiculous claim that Ukraine would cease to exist in "weeks" and you just spun yourself in circles. You simply don't own up to anything. Just like another thread tonight where you claimed Tesla owners can hack their cars and change battery health results.


At least link it for everyone else to see it, if it exists.


No. I'm not. I played his little game last time with the two weeks. So he will just have to deal with it.
PlaneCrashGuy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Teslag said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

Teslag said:

nortex97 said:

Teslag said:

He absolutely did claim that and GAC, Ag With Kids and others can verify. It was as absurd then as it is now
I'll await your citation since I clearly claimed 200 T-90's would be produced per month. Or, alternatively, you'll be proven yet again to be a liar.


Right. Just like when we linked your ridiculous claim that Ukraine would cease to exist in "weeks" and you just spun yourself in circles. You simply don't own up to anything. Just like another thread tonight where you claimed Tesla owners can hack their cars and change battery health results.


At least link it for everyone else to see it, if it exists.


No. I'm not. I played his little game last time with the two weeks. So he will just have to deal with it.


Well while you're tucking your tail, your see this NYT article?


Is NYT propaganda or how are you gonna spin this one?
Teslag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
There's no need to spin. If you actually bothered to read The NY Times article you would see the area they are talking about is two miles.

Or the teeny tiny little yellow line you have to squint to see in the pic below
Aggie1205
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Quote:

"Its principal requirement was Ukrainian neutrality, including limits on the size of its military. Ukraine couldn't join NATO but it could still join the EU. Russian troops would have left Ukraine. Crimea would have remained in Russian hands, as it has since 2014. WSJ"::

If I was in the shoes of the Ukrainians I would have a hard time taking any deal that doesn't involve NATO protection. If I was any country (outside of China) that shared a border with Russia, I would want to be a part of NATO. When you have a dozen or more countries in the past 100 years having been invaded or having given up territory, any neighbor of Russia has to be worried.

For Ukraine, I would push for a deal where Russia keeps Crimea and the currently occupied territory with some arrangements that people on either side of the border can make a choice and have freedom to move to one side or the other. Ukraine then gets the green light to join NATO. I don't see them getting a better deal at this point.

At least there would be a Ukraine in 5 years this way. Accepting an offer where you can't join NATO and have to reduce your military just pushes back by a few years when you get completely taken over.

I would also request third party watchdogs in place in the areas Russia just conquered to ensure that Russia doesn't deport ethnic Ukrainians to Siberia and put them into camps. Keep in mind that Russia has done this to many groups in the past 70 years.

Aggie1205
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Hey Nortex,

I looked at the Twitter feed of that Noctis Draven guy. Its public so even people like me not on Twitter can see. Have you looked at it? He worships Putin over and over. Even if you don't think we should be involved which is at least a valid argument, I don't think Putin is who I would want to worship.
Teslag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Brilliant post and my thoughts exactly. NATO memebership instantly brings lasting peace to Ukraine/Russia
Teslag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Aggie1205 said:

Hey Nortex,

I looked at the Twitter feed of that Noctis Draven guy. It's public so even people like me not on Twitter can see. Have you looked at it? He worships Putin over and over. Even if you don't think we should be involved which is at least a valid argument, I don't think Putin is who I would want to worship.


That's a recurring theme of just about all of those like Olga Bazova, Geroman, Lord Bebo, etc. And it's not just Putin. Most if not all of them are completely on the tank for Hamas, Iran, and China. It's appalling.
PlaneCrashGuy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Teslag said:

There's no need to spin. If you actually bothered to read The NY Times article you would see the area they are talking about is two miles.

Or the teeny tiny little yellow line you have to squint to see in the pic below



Ah the "not a big area" spin. Its so funny you don't see spin for what it is as you tirelessly peddle it here.
Teslag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Why can the Russians only take a couple of miles in one tiny area in 6 months? I was to understand they are now capable of offensives?
PlaneCrashGuy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Teslag said:

Why can the Russians only take a couple of miles in one tiny area in 6 months? I was to understand they are now capable of offensives?


Because Ukraine couldnt stop them.
Teslag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
So Russian army, with no one to stop them, can only manage 2 miles in 6 months?
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Teslag said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

Teslag said:

nortex97 said:

Teslag said:

He absolutely did claim that and GAC, Ag With Kids and others can verify. It was as absurd then as it is now
I'll await your citation since I clearly claimed 200 T-90's would be produced per month. Or, alternatively, you'll be proven yet again to be a liar.


Right. Just like when we linked your ridiculous claim that Ukraine would cease to exist in "weeks" and you just spun yourself in circles. You simply don't own up to anything. Just like another thread tonight where you claimed Tesla owners can hack their cars and change battery health results.


At least link it for everyone else to see it, if it exists.


No. I'm not. I played his little game last time with the two weeks. So he will just have to deal with it.
"Last time" I asked you for where in the thread someone had claimed definitively Ukraine would disappear within 'weeks' in mid-December and you posted finally a quote where I said "maybe, a few weeks" citing a Ukrainian source, catching yourself in a bald faced lie, which you had just repeated dozens of times until you convinced yourself and a handful of others it was true.

This is also the case here. No one ever said there would be 200 T-90's a month produced, period, it's just a lie you like to snarkily repeat because you think it is somehow clever. You could of course figure out when you started with the lie but that would take effort and you don't want to point out/document your own lie again.

Moving away from your sneering facile dishonesty, the Russian military production of artillery, armor, and weaponry has far exceeded western estimates;

Quote:

One key indicator in the artillery war has been the domestic manufacture of shells, which experts put at 2.5m to 5m units a year. Riisik called the trends worrying, noting that production could run above 4m units in the next year or two. The import of more than a million shells already from North Korea, and a strategic stockpile of shells in the millions, gives Russia an additional cushion.

While that number may not give Russia the needed capacity to make significant territorial gains in 2024 or 2025, it nonetheless puts Ukraine at a significant disadvantage on the frontlines, where Russia has at least a three-to-one superiority in artillery fire, and often even more.

"It's a lot higher than we expected, really," Riisik said of the Russian production numbers.

'Kalashnikov economy'

Much of this was baked into Russia's military-industrial complex, a sprawling behemoth of nearly 6,000 companies, many of which rarely turned a profit before the war. But what it lacked in efficiency, it made up for in spare capacity and flexibility when the Russian government suddenly ramped up defence production in 2022.

Richard Connolly, an expert on Russia's military and economy at the Royal United Services Institute thinktank in London, called it a "Kalashnikov economy", which he said was "quite unsophisticated but durable, built for large-scale use and for use in conflicts".

He said: "The Russians have been paying for this for years. They've been subsidising the defence industry, and many would have said wasting money for the event that one day they need to be able to scale it up. So it was economically inefficient until 2022, and then suddenly it looks like a very shrewd bit of planning."
It's actually a bit fascinating to study the data we do have. The Brits have various outfits (note mostly propaganda) that have studied it and estimated they got 1,500 tanks delivered last year, including new, refurbished, upgraded etc;


Quote:

At the moment, RUSI estimates Russia has approximately 4,780 artillery pieces, 1,130 rocket-launcher artillery systems, 2,060 tanks of various designs and 7,080 other armoured fighting vehicles. It is also supported by 290 helicopters, of which 110 are attack helicopters, and 310 fixed-wing fighter-bombers.
It's an army that will only continue growing, the British think-tank said.

"Russia is delivering approximately 1,500 tanks to its forces per year, along with approximately 3,000 armoured fighting vehicles of various types," the RUSI report said.

"Russian missile production has similarly increased."
Now, the Russians have claimed to have received 2,100 last year, but that includes restored T-54's etc. used in fixed defensive positions mostly.

PlaneCrashGuy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Teslag said:

So Russian army, with no one to stop them, can only manage 2 miles in 6 months?


No, because Ukraine tried to stop them. But Ukraine failed.
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
"The Ukrainians just want to fight off the Russians:"







I do not think this is true, but could be a big problem;









More:

Quote:

So, what is the big concern in the Avdeevka axis in particular, besides the lack of constructed defenses? Here's one view from a Russian military analyst:
Quote:

Yevgeny Krutikov: "Behind the new line of defence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which has developed in the Avdeyevka area at the moment (provisionally around Orlovka), an empty space has opened up in which there are no natural obstacles capable of supporting new defensive fortifications."
Yevgeny Krutikov: "There is nothing like this up to the next major settlements of the Donbass, primarily Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsky). The enemy has not strengthened the small villages there in any way, thinking it wouldn't be necessary."
What he's saying is, behind Orlovka, which Russian forces were said to have taken today, there are no good, naturally defensible positions all the way up to Pokrovsk. And this happens to be precisely where all the current talk revolves around.
For reference, here's the current defense line which is a temporary transit point that Ukraine has already mostly lost:



Quote:

One Russian military linked channel says the river will be reached by end of March:
Quote:

Two small boilers were formed near Avdiivka-between three settlements: Tonenke-Orlovka-Berdychy. They record conversations between military personnel, equipment and personnel. These "dead men" should slow down the advance of the Russian army, which is expected to reach the watershed of the Volchya River by the end of March. The next frontier for our infantry will be the Umanskaya-Novoselovka line to the west. The enemy will not have time to dig in well there and will not hold these villages.
And a Ukrainian take:
Quote:

from Ukrainian channel
evening 02/28/2024
[The cascade of reservoirs should contribute to our defense in the Avdeevsky direction, - press secretary of the AFU Tavria OSUV (Group) Likhovoy]
PS
The APU will withdraw (while preserving HP as much as possible) beyond the Karlovskoye Reservoir and a chain of reservoirs, floodplains and streams along the vector to Ocheretino.
While the Armed Forces of Ukraine are fighting for the villages of Pervomaiskoye and Netailovo, their rear forces will be building new lines of defense behind the Karlovsky water chron at a frantic pace.
(our videoconferencing and high-precision technology will help them). Because the dam explosion will be blamed on our FABs in any case.
It is possible that several dams in the adjacent ponds and the Charles Dam itself will be blown up during our offensive.
This is further supported by Rezident UA channel:
Quote:

Our source in the General Staff said that Syrsky gave the team to prepare Selidovo for defense and the creation of a fortified area from the city, while Pokrovsk, which now brings technology and BC, should become the main center of resistance.
The command has already transferred more than ten thousand military personnel to that area, who occupy empty houses and apartments, to create defensive structures.

Not to mention the following:
Quote:

MI-6 handed over new intelligence to the Office of the President and the General Staff, which contains information on the preparation by the Russian army of four new strike corps for the spring offensive in eastern Ukraine. British intelligence believes that the Kremlin wants to collapse the front and seize new territories in order to strengthen its position in a protracted war.

Forever war!
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Goldman's new piece is excellent.



Quote:

Short of trained personnel and ammunition, one speaker argued, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky might consider a Chinese peace plan, especially after Beijing's successful mediation of the Iran-Saudi dispute.

The several dozen attendees, many of whom had held cabinet or sub-cabinet positions, met under Chatham House rules, which forbid identification of individual participants but allow the content itself to be presented.

Overwhelmingly, the sentiment of participants leaned towards escalation in the form of providing additional weapons to Ukraine. One prominent analyst proposed the formation of a "foreign legion" of fighters from other countries to supplement Ukraine's shrinking pool of trained manpower.

The great majority of participants favored risking everything for absolute victory over Russia. None of the attendees mentioned the qualms that former president Donald Trump voiced on May 17 about the risk of nuclear escalation in Ukraine.

The question of how the Russia-Ukraine war might escalate into a broader conflict received no attention. Their frustration, rather, was that Ukraine seems less likely to defeat Russia, even if the West makes the maximum effort and risks escalation.

We should not be surprised, one of the lead presenters said at the end of the conclave, if Ukraine's President Zelensky takes up China's peace plan. No one in the West anticipated that China would mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Although Washington has dismissed China's peace plan for Ukraine, Zelensky has not. Russia would keep the Sea of Azov and most of the Donbas, a settlement that might be forced on Ukraine as it runs out of manpower and ammunition. America's view of China is "primitive," the expert added, and tends to underestimate Chinese sophistication.

A spokesman for the National Security Council dismissed the Chinese initiative, which calls for an immediate ceasefire, noting that a ceasefire would allow Russia to remain in place on territory it seized from Ukraine.

Ukraine has sustained two-thirds as many casualties as Russia, but with a third to a quarter of Russia's population, is far less able to sustain them, according to one expert who spent many months on the ground in Ukraine.

The entire army that NATO trained between 2014 and 2022 in preparation for a Russian attack is dead, and recruits are being thrown into battle lines with three weeks of training.

Quote:

There is a lot of anti-Russian sentiment in China, he added, and the Chinese people won't like the idea of accepting hardship to help Russia. Ukraine and China, he added, "have a robust partnership going back decades."

I am at liberty to report what I told the group. The Ukraine war has set in motion a global realignment, including the China-Iran-Saudi agreement. Looking at America's blunders in Ukraine, the Saudis have concluded that America won't put boots on the ground in the Middle East and are looking for other friends.
Turkey has flourished as a trade intermediary between China and Russia, and has patched up relations with the Gulf States as well as Israel. India, supposedly an ally against China, has become Russia's biggest customer for oil and has vastly expanded its trade with China, which now provides 30% of its non-oil imports.

The United States is losing influence catastrophically by underestimating Russia. It doesn't have the industrial capacity to provide artillery ammunition to Ukraine. The best policy is an immediate ceasefire, I argued.
Teslag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Quote:

"The Ukrainians just want to fight off the Russians:"


I see we are still believing any headline matches a video on Twitter as long as it confirms our bias
docb
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Honestly this thread has some of the most bizarre posters on it. I don't even know where they find all of this weird **** but it is sort of entertaining since most of it is so stupid. I guess with the sheer number of Aggie grads there is just going to be some outliers out there. Or maybe they have Russian mail order brides?
First Page Last Page
Page 191 of 261
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.