***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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74OA
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2:14p, 12/19/24
AG
Putin's hybrid war intensifies while European countries dither.

"Moscow appears to have broadened its campaign with riskier, potentially more lethal plots. By all indications, Russia is going just to the edge of what it calculates the West will tolerate without provoking a military response. That's a dangerous game, and one increasingly likely to result in a crisis arising from casualties on European soil. Yet the West remains stuck in a defensive crouch."

ATTACKS
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mallen
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In reply to 74OA • 6:08p, 12/19/24
AG
74OA said:
In addition to fearing the subversive effect of a free, democratic and prosperous Ukraine on his doorstep, Putin's other motivation to invade is straightforward robbery.

Scroll to the maps. "Will Trump let Putin get Ukraine's $26 trillion in gas and minerals?"

REAVERS
Yep. A short sighted end to this war will only lead to a more powerful, more aggressive Russia in the future. At his "press conference" today, Putin effectively telegraphed these sentiments by stating that his only regrets are that he didn't invade Ukraine sooner and that he should have been better prepared militarily. Press Conference

Ukraine has vast reserves of lithium, titanium and uranium which will most certainly be used to fuel Russian and Chinese military technology for decades.

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lb3
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In reply to PJYoung • 7:12p, 12/19/24
AG
Murmansk is quite the road trip.
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txags92
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8:02p, 12/19/24
AG
In the past, they had quite a few bears and backfires based up there.
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74OA
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9:49a, 12/20/24
AG
Germany delivers the sixth of eight promised IRIS air defense systems.

"Germany has emerged as the second-largest supplier of military aid to Ukraine, following the United States. This represents a significant shift from Berlin's earlier reluctance to provide arms."

IRIS-T
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Waffledynamics
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9:51a, 12/20/24
AG
Quote:
Ukraine has repatriated the bodies of 503 fallen defenders
https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/20-december-10-ukraine-has-repatriated-the-bodies-of-503
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No Spin Ag
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 9:53a, 12/20/24
Who?mikejones! said:
one MEEN Ag said:
74OA said:
Drones carrying drones.

"The Ukrainian Navy (VMS ZSU) recently revealed a completely new type of USV which adds several previously unseen features. This new design, as yet unnamed in public, adds small aerial drones, and possibly mines, to the capabilities of USVs. And it has already proven them in action."

USV
I wonder how many layers of drones carrying drones you can go.

Russian nesting dolls if you will.




Its happening

Skynet is going to have a field day with us.

Oh well, we had a good run.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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74OA
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11:34a, 12/21/24
AG
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74OA
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2:15p, 12/21/24
AG
Putin's failed invasion and the subsequent threat of ATACMS and longer-ranged drones is forcing Russia to invest in hardening key fixed resources.

"Recent satellite imagery of Belbek Air Base, near Sevastopol in Russian-occupied Crimea, shows new hardened aircraft shelters and additional construction to help shield aircraft from drone attacks and other indirect fire. This reflects a broader push by the Russian military to improve physical defenses at multiple airfields two and a half years after the launch of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine."

HAS
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Eliminatus
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7:00a, 12/22/24
AG
Russians looking to bridge the Dnipro again it looks like. Watching Putin's annual address where he welcomes a missile duel with the West with Kyiv being the arena and seeing the estimated Russian losses of the past two months is sobering. The man is a flat out psychopath. The butchery of the last few weeks has reached peaks not yet seen. Including the bloodbaths of Adiivka and Bakhmut.

Now this probable new offensive to try to force that river is going to ramp up those bloody numbers to even higher levels. River crossings are a nightmare at the best of times. Russians already know this first hand...

I know we should all probably be desensitized to most of this by now, but damn me if it still blows my mind to see what I can only describe as sheer madness. For what? Gain as much blasted and bloodsoaked terrain which amounts to breadcrumbs before Jan. 20th and hope Trump gives him a winning hand at the negotiation table? It's all just so pointless to me at this time. Whole situation continues to disgust me on a visceral level somehow.

Sorry, got into the eggnog early. Some actual updates:

New offensive shaping out?

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russians-start-trying-to-force-the-dnipro-river-near-kherson/

Also, a post not long ago of the true first battle between mechs and humans being debatable has been usurped. Actual true attack of drones versus Russian positions has taken place now. Coordinated Ground and air assets took the fight to some trench systems with zero Ukrainian soldiers present. Small scale still of course but the tech leaps and expectations of armed conflict continue to leap ahead in months, not decades as previously seen. Some pretty gritty footage online of this attack floating around out there. The Ukes approach and embracement to this new style of war is changing literally everything.

https://kyivindependent.com/for-first-time-ukraine-attacks-russian-positions-using-solely-ground-fpv-drones/
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lb3
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8:38p, 12/22/24
AG
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Who?mikejones!
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7:22a, 12/23/24
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Who?mikejones!
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7:24a, 12/23/24
I gotta be honest, I didn't have Russians entering battle on e-scooters on my bingo card



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JFABNRGR
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8:39a, 12/23/24
AG
There is several vids on Reddit showing over 100 casualties by drones. Mostly north Koreans in a single evnt/ area of kursk. That would be over a 100:1 loss ratio of orc to UKR. For months now i have observed UKes using 5+ fpv drones on a single evasive orc.

I don't think Trump is going to be the savior to Putin and his atrocities. He is going to have to source more than a 100k soldiers and I don't think that many were coming out of syria.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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AlaskanAg99
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8:45a, 12/23/24
AG
Apparently they've got a cheap knockoff of the EM-50 Urban Assult Vehicle.
aTm '99
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BoDog
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8:45a, 12/23/24
AG
please post the link if you can find it...
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74OA
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2:46p, 12/23/24
AG
Here's hoping this report is accurate.

"The Russian military reportedly gathered 300 boats earlier this month to cross the Dnieper River to gain control of some of the islands in the Dnipro delta, according to the Kyiv Independent. However, not only have Russian military commanders refused to send their subordinates to cross the river, but the soldiers themselves have been coming up with ways to avoid doing so."

MUTINY?
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Monkeypoxfighter
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3:28p, 12/23/24
If Putin was planning on Trump cutting Ukraine off, he's going to be disappointed.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/donald-trump-will-continue-arming-ukraine-and-has-new-nato-plan/ar-AA1weWKy
It only took me a year to figure out this place is nuts!
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Gric
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4:47p, 12/23/24
pagerman @ work
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In reply to Monkeypoxfighter • 6:27p, 12/23/24
AG
Monkeypoxfighter said:
If Putin was planning on Trump cutting Ukraine off, he's going to be disappointed.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/donald-trump-will-continue-arming-ukraine-and-has-new-nato-plan/ar-AA1weWKy


“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy. It's inherent virtue is the equal sharing of miseries." - Winston Churchill
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PJYoung
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In reply to Monkeypoxfighter • 9:25p, 12/23/24
AG
Monkeypoxfighter said:
If Putin was planning on Trump cutting Ukraine off, he's going to be disappointed.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/donald-trump-will-continue-arming-ukraine-and-has-new-nato-plan/ar-AA1weWKy


On Monday, Trump suggested that he may reverse US President Joe Biden's recent decision to allow Ukrainian forces to use American long-range weapons to strike deeper into Russian territory.

Trump called the decision made by Biden last month "stupid." He also expressed anger that his incoming administration was not consulted before Biden made the move.
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Eliminatus
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9:55p, 12/23/24
AG
Preston Stewart took up the topic of prisoner execution of Uke POWs in his latest video. First time I have seen him get even a little heated. Highly recommend his channel for overviews of geopolitical happenings.

Anyways, an article came out few days ago that is gaining traction and he highlights it. Basically, Russians are executing prisoners at an increasing pace that would suggest not just an acceptance of it, but perhaps actual orders of it.

I know this is a touchy subject somehow and always derails into whataboutisms. This is so different though in scale that it really cannot be compared to whatever the pro Russia folks toss out. I get the attempt I guess. "Bang Bang Plays" happen. As the NFL calls it. **** happens in the heat of the combat. Yet, the difference between that and accepting a surrender, disarming them, stripping them naked, making them kneel or prostate themselves, and then shoot them in the back or head is so wide that there can be no meaningful conversation debating it in my eyes. What is wild to me is that a fair number of them are actually recorded and released by the Russians themselves. They are proud of this behavior. All the way back to that first horrendous one I saw of them carving off a Uke's testicles, letting him suffer for a bit and then shooting him in the head. That was like week 5 of this invasion maybe?

I know Russian barbarism really needs no introduction to the regulars here but this is a reminder I think of WHY the Ukes are fighting and will continue to fight. And Yet, Russia holds a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. What a joke.

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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to Monkeypoxfighter • 10:02p, 12/23/24
AG
Monkeypoxfighter said:
If Putin was planning on Trump cutting Ukraine off, he's going to be disappointed.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/donald-trump-will-continue-arming-ukraine-and-has-new-nato-plan/ar-AA1weWKy


A lot of not smart people are going to be very upset, or they're going to convince themselves this is 16D chess.
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mickeyrig06sq3
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 10:11p, 12/23/24
AG
ABATTBQ11 said:
Monkeypoxfighter said:
If Putin was planning on Trump cutting Ukraine off, he's going to be disappointed.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/donald-trump-will-continue-arming-ukraine-and-has-new-nato-plan/ar-AA1weWKy


A lot of not smart people are going to be very upset, or they're going to convince themselves this is 16D chess.
I was curious about what would happen once he started getting the PDB.
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MouthBQ98
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In reply to PJYoung • 7:49a, 12/24/24
AG
This would be foolish. This is one thing that could put pressure on Putin and also definitely it it reciprocal of the Russian use of long range foreign weapons from Iran and North Korea, and not an escalation.
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No Spin Ag
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 8:57a, 12/24/24
Who?mikejones! said:
I gotta be honest, I didn't have Russians entering battle on e-scooters on my bingo card



Who doesn't love watching invading Russian thugs getting offed by the Ukes? I mean, besides Putin and his American sycophants.

Slava Ukraini!
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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No Spin Ag
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In reply to pagerman @ work • 8:58a, 12/24/24
pagerman @ work said:
Monkeypoxfighter said:
If Putin was planning on Trump cutting Ukraine off, he's going to be disappointed.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/donald-trump-will-continue-arming-ukraine-and-has-new-nato-plan/ar-AA1weWKy


Very good Trump.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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AtticusMatlock
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9:05a, 12/24/24
Analysis of the situation on the ground from the Ukrainian perspective.

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74OA
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9:05a, 12/24/24
AG
NK support is keeping Russia in the war.

"North Korea is providing 60% of the artillery and mortar shells used by Russia in Ukraine, Andriy Kovalenko, a Ukrainian army officer heading a government unit tasked with countering Russian disinformation, toldWSJ. "North Korean ammunition is holding the Russian defenses," he said. "North Korea's missiles now make up nearly a third of Russia's ballistic missile launches at Ukraine this year, according to Ukrainian officials."

SITREP
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aezmvp
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In reply to 74OA • 9:13a, 12/24/24
74OA said:
NK support is keeping Russia in the war.

"North Korea is providing 60% of the artillery and mortar shells used by Russia in Ukraine, Andriy Kovalenko, a Ukrainian army officer heading a government unit tasked with countering Russian disinformation, toldWSJ. "North Korean ammunition is holding the Russian defenses," he said. "North Korea's missiles now make up nearly a third of Russia's ballistic missile launches at Ukraine this year, according to Ukrainian officials."

SITREP
The problem here is that Ukraine has very little prospect for retaking any territory. The only real thing here is to get the best peace possible, and put in things to rebuild both in population and armaments as well as putting assets in to disrupt and demoralize the Russians.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to aezmvp • 11:23a, 12/24/24
AG
aezmvp said:
74OA said:
NK support is keeping Russia in the war.

"North Korea is providing 60% of the artillery and mortar shells used by Russia in Ukraine, Andriy Kovalenko, a Ukrainian army officer heading a government unit tasked with countering Russian disinformation, toldWSJ. "North Korean ammunition is holding the Russian defenses," he said. "North Korea's missiles now make up nearly a third of Russia's ballistic missile launches at Ukraine this year, according to Ukrainian officials."

SITREP
The problem here is that Ukraine has very little prospect for retaking any territory. The only real thing here is to get the best peace possible, and put in things to rebuild both in population and armaments as well as putting assets in to disrupt and demoralize the Russians.


The Ukes don't have to retake territory they and the sane world need to make it cost so much for russians to hold, that eventually putin has to cede the ground. Who knows when that will be.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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Ulysses90
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1:52p, 12/24/24
AG
A ceasefire on the current lines will have a serious adverse effect on Putin. Without missiles flying and troops mobilizing, the attention of the Russian people turns inward and they confront the losses that didn't result in reclaiming the glory that Putin insisted was their destiny. Puti 's entire reign has been characterized by domestic unrest during times of peace and support during times of war. If oil prices are not high and rising, Putin picks a fight. The most economically damaging measure that the Teump administration can take is to flood the global market with US oil and LNG.
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geoag58
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3:55p, 12/24/24
AG
A cease fire will help stabilize the world and will stop the norks from using the Ukrainian people as test dummies for weaponry and tactics. The only people who will suffer from a cease fire are grifters and the MIC.
Fight against the dictatorship of the federal bureaucracy!
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to geoag58 • 4:20p, 12/24/24
AG
geoag58 said:
A cease fire will help stabilize the world and will stop the norks from using the Ukrainian people as test dummies for weaponry and tactics. The only people who will suffer from a cease fire are grifters and the MIC.


And the Ukrainians in the Russian occupied areas. Also Ukraine, since Russia is really after land, minerals, and gas and took some of Ukraine's best resources.
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TheCougarHunter
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 7:54p, 12/24/24
AG
Wouldn't the Russians pushing East be GOOD thing??
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