***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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74OA
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909Ag2006 said:

That article says Russia needs to recruit 30,000 new troops per month to replace casualties. I call BS.
Do some research. Russia has been documented as losing ~1K casualties (i.e. killed and wounded) a day for most of this year.

With a reported 470,000 Russian troops fighting inside Ukraine in what has become a primarily infantry war, the number is not surprising.
mallen
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More info on the crashing Russian ruble. Ordinary Russian citizens are feeling the impact of the Ukraine War with inflation at 8.5% and interest rates at an astonishing 21%. Of course, the Kremlin is downplaying this as much ado about nothing.

Quote:

Economists say there's no doubt that the war, and Western measures designed to punish Russia for its invasion, are starting to really hit home.

"One would think two years of sanctions is starting to wreak havoc on the Russian economy," Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, commented Wednesday, as the ruble fell further.
Russia's economy appeared to be "an overheated economy that is struggling to support its war effort [and] exhausts its resources," he said in comments posted on X, noting that the central bank appeared to have run out of "unorthodox steps to avoid the obvious endgame in which it stops buying foreign currencies, which started today."

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/28/russia-tries-to-stem-panic-over-plummeting-ruble-central-bank-steps-in.html
PJYoung
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JFABNRGR
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PJYoung said:

909Ag2006 said:

That article says Russia needs to recruit 30,000 new troops per month to replace casualties. I call BS.


Casualty rate is thought to be above 1k a day so the math checks out.

But i understand finding those numbers hard to believe. Incredible meat grinder.


This article says 2000 lost in a day with 300 pieces of equipment. Just insane.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/29/russia-ukraine-zelensky-putin-war-latest-news/

“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
909Ag2006
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"909Ag2006 said:
That article says Russia needs to recruit 30,000 new troops per month to replace casualties. I call BS.
Do some research. Russia has been documented as losing ~1K casualties (i.e. killed and wounded) a day for most of this year.

With a reported 470,000 Russian troops fighting inside Ukraine in what has become a primarily infantry war, the number is not surprising."

That would put them at around 1,000,000 casualties so far. The articles I have read say their losses are half that.

"They weren't raiding a Girl Scout troop looking for overdue library books."
sclaff
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mallen said:

More info on the crashing Russian ruble. Ordinary Russian citizens are feeling the impact of the Ukraine War with inflation at 8.5% and interest rates at an astonishing 21%. Of course, the Kremlin is downplaying this as much ado about nothing.

Quote:

Economists say there's no doubt that the war, and Western measures designed to punish Russia for its invasion, are starting to really hit home.

"One would think two years of sanctions is starting to wreak havoc on the Russian economy," Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, commented Wednesday, as the ruble fell further.
Russia's economy appeared to be "an overheated economy that is struggling to support its war effort [and] exhausts its resources," he said in comments posted on X, noting that the central bank appeared to have run out of "unorthodox steps to avoid the obvious endgame in which it stops buying foreign currencies, which started today."

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/28/russia-tries-to-stem-panic-over-plummeting-ruble-central-bank-steps-in.html


Heard one commentator say mortgage rates are 28%. Beyond Jimmy Carter !
74OA
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909Ag2006 said:

"909Ag2006 said:
That article says Russia needs to recruit 30,000 new troops per month to replace casualties. I call BS.

"Do some research. Russia has been documented as losing ~1K casualties (i.e. killed and wounded) a day for most of this year.

With a reported 470,000 Russian troops fighting inside Ukraine in what has become a primarily infantry war, the number is not surprising."

That would put them at around 1,000,000 casualties so far. The articles I have read say their losses are half that.


"For most of this year" not for the entire war.
JFABNRGR
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Both 500,000 or 1,000,000 casualties are insane numbers in the current era for western cultures but then there is russia.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
agcrock2005
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This can't be good for Russia that they're having to do this.

GAC06
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The "other perspective" thread is certain that this is a sign of impending collapse
B-1 83
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GAC06 said:

The "other perspective" thread is certain that this is a sign of impending collapse
It is an interesting development. If rumors are true, the children of Moscow and St. Petersburg have been largely "protected" during this war, and this might wake people up to the meat grinder Putin has thrown Russia's future labor force into.
Teslag
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Most of the Ukrainian conscription videos were fakes and it's sad that so many latched on to them. But it's a tried and true old Soviet method to project on to your enemy what you are actually doing yourself. Russia's manpower woes are evident. They've run out of prisoners. They've disbanded the PMC's or got them all killed. They don't have enough ethnic groups to get more. And they've had to import North Koreans now to fight for them. The forced conscription was always around the corner.
richardag
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74OA said:

DanielDay said:

B-1 83 said:

Impossible. We were told on this very thread that sanctions did zero to the Russian economy and that China, North Korea, and Iran were supporting the Russian economy and all doing quite swimmingly.
Putin has 2 months minus 1 week to get thru his crisis. Honesty I'm unsure the Russian leadership could last another 6 months at this pace but that won't matter.
Yep, Putin's house of cards is increasingly set to come tumbling down.

We just need to understand where our national interests lay and stay the course.

Worth a repost: FUMES
quote from the article
  • The apparent resilience of the Russian economy has confounded many strategists who expected Western sanctions to paralyze Moscow's war effort against Ukraine. Russia continues to export vast quantities of oil, gas, and other commoditiesthe result of sanctions evasion and loopholes deliberately designed by Western policymakers to keep Russian resources on world markets.
Hope ending this is in President Trumps bullseye.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
richardag
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agcrock2005 said:

This can't be good for Russia that they're having to do this.


How is recruiting for police officers going. I image applications are up as the police aren't sent to the combat zones in other countries?
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
74OA
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richardag said:

74OA said:

DanielDay said:

B-1 83 said:

Impossible. We were told on this very thread that sanctions did zero to the Russian economy and that China, North Korea, and Iran were supporting the Russian economy and all doing quite swimmingly.
Putin has 2 months minus 1 week to get thru his crisis. Honesty I'm unsure the Russian leadership could last another 6 months at this pace but that won't matter.
Yep, Putin's house of cards is increasingly set to come tumbling down.

We just need to understand where our national interests lay and stay the course.

Worth a repost: FUMES
quote from the article
  • The apparent resilience of the Russian economy has confounded many strategists who expected Western sanctions to paralyze Moscow's war effort against Ukraine. Russia continues to export vast quantities of oil, gas, and other commoditiesthe result of sanctions evasion and loopholes deliberately designed by Western policymakers to keep Russian resources on world markets.
Hope ending this is in President Trumps bullseye.
Biden just closed those remaining energy sanctions loopholes. That will provide Trump with another bargaining chip to incentivize Putin to cooperate during peace negotiations.

DONE
Ag with kids
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GAC06 said:

The "other perspective" thread is certain that this is a sign of impending collapse
Were these posted as raids in Kyiv?
74OA
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Ukraine combining drones and AI to deadly effect.

"Ukraine's drone war is evolving rapidly. Once a cheap answer to Russia's artillery dominance, Ukrainian small and inexpensive first-person view (FPV) drones are now a force in their own right. They are used on a huge scale, with Ukraine projected to produce 2m this year."

DRONES
PA24
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The eastern Ukraine land grab by Putin is worth trillions of dollars in minerals and farm lands. Also, increased population comes with the land. No way Putin concedes what they have taken.


My guess Trump has Putin purchase the disputed property at a bargain price, maybe $.10 on the dollar over x number of years (20).

Something like that….not a great deal for Zelensky but he has had 3 years to kick out the Russians and his options are limited compared to Putin.

74OA
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74OA said:

Ukraine combining drones and AI to deadly effect.

"Ukraine's drone war is evolving rapidly. Once a cheap answer to Russia's artillery dominance, Ukrainian small and inexpensive first-person view (FPV) drones are now a force in their own right. They are used on a huge scale, with Ukraine projected to produce 2m this year."

DRONES
Related. Germany announcing it is sending thousands of considerably more advanced AI-enabled drones, too.

BREAKING
74OA
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NATO summit focused on Ukraine.

  • NATO members are going to discuss support for Ukraine in Brussels
  • According to diplomats, Ukraine is unlikely to get a membership invitation
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked Germany for supporting Kyiv
  • US has announced a new package of military aid to Ukraine

  • UPDATES
    mickeyrig06sq3
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    74OA said:

    Ukraine combining drones and AI to deadly effect.

    "Ukraine's drone war is evolving rapidly. Once a cheap answer to Russia's artillery dominance, Ukrainian small and inexpensive first-person view (FPV) drones are now a force in their own right. They are used on a huge scale, with Ukraine projected to produce 2m this year."

    DRONES

    As long as there's a human element before things go boom. I like AI, but I don't trust it enough for complete autonomy. Plus the old Sci-Fi warning of them going rogue.
    74OA
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    One of Russia's most modern mobile air defense radars captured in Syria. If we gain access, the intel will directly assist both Ukraine and NATO in countering Russian SAM systems.

    "The Podlet-K1 radar system, also known by the designation 48Ya6-K1, is one of the more modern pieces of equipment in the Russian inventory, has been employed in the war in Ukraine, and would be a significant intelligence windfall if it were to possibly find its way into Western hands."

    RADAR
    Rossticus
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    74OA said:

    One of Russia's most modern mobile air defense radars captured in Syria. If we gain access, the intel will directly assist both Ukraine and NATO in countering Russian SAM systems.

    "The Podlet-K1 radar system, also known by the designation 48Ya6-K1, is one of the more modern pieces of equipment in the Russian inventory, has been employed in the war in Ukraine, and would be a significant intelligence windfall if it were to possibly find its way into Western hands."

    RADAR


    74OA
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    Move-Countermove.

    "Despite receiving little attention across the mainstream media, Ukraine's increasingly successful use of FPV drones as C-UAS interceptors is a highly consequential development because it directly removes Russia's main ISR assets from the battlefield, eroding its forces' situational awareness as well as ability to detect targets, breaking a key link in the Russian kill-chain."

    BLINDING
    2wealfth Man
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    Russia averaged 2,000 losses a day during November. Staggering and yet the Putin meat grinder keeps on grinding somehow. I mean it has to be like throwing bunnies into a wolf pen at this point.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/vladimir-putin-ukraine-war-russia-casualties-soldiers-b1198232.html
    MouthBQ98
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    I suspect he knows time is now not on his side necessarily and he needs to maximize his takings and leverage by grabbing as much as possible.

    Russia has also had to switch tactics due to massive vehicle losses to mainly infantry attacks with minimal vehicle use (quick in and out taxi trips to try to minimize exposure), and that has resulted in higher casualty rates. More infantry in the open or packed into fewer vehicles when they are hit.
    doubledog
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    909Ag2006 said:

    "909Ag2006 said:
    That article says Russia needs to recruit 30,000 new troops per month to replace casualties. I call BS.
    Do some research. Russia has been documented as losing ~1K casualties (i.e. killed and wounded) a day for most of this year.

    With a reported 470,000 Russian troops fighting inside Ukraine in what has become a primarily infantry war, the number is not surprising."

    That would put them at around 1,000,000 casualties so far. The articles I have read say their losses are half that.


    Soviet (Russian) mentality.

    Quote:

    If we come to a minefield, our infantry attacks exactly as it were not there

    Georgy Zhukov to General Eisenhower, 1945. Quoted in "Russia: The People and the Power"

    2wealfth Man
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    MouthBQ98 said:

    I suspect he knows time is now not on his side necessarily and he needs to maximize his takings and leverage by grabbing as much as possible.

    Russia has also had to switch tactics due to massive vehicle losses to mainly infantry attacks with minimal vehicle use (quick in and out taxi trips to try to minimize exposure), and that has resulted in higher casualty rates. More infantry in the open or packed into fewer vehicles when they are hit.
    and now AP mines to funnel'em into kill zones. Sign me up for that Mr. Putin! Kim getting rid of a lot of hungry stomachs to feed when the next famine rolls around.
    74OA
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    Opening a new front or just a demonstration to draw Ukrainian reserves away from the Donbas?

    More: UPDATES


    Rossticus
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    Putin is clearly anxious to negotiate in order to prevent further loss of life.
    PJYoung
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    2wealfth Man
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    they need to cluster the F out of that attempted river crossing
    EastSideAg2002
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    If they haven't improved their amphibious assault from the first year, its going to be slaughter house draining into a river.
    Waffledynamics
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    2wealfth Man said:

    Russia averaged 2,000 losses a day during November. Staggering and yet the Putin meat grinder keeps on grinding somehow. I mean it has to be like throwing bunnies into a wolf pen at this point.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/vladimir-putin-ukraine-war-russia-casualties-soldiers-b1198232.html
    Keep grinding the meat. There are only so many.
    74OA
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    Russia amping up its strategic disinformation campaign to undermine US support for Ukraine.

    "Recent examples include fake videos supposedly showing Ukrainian soldiers burning effigies of Trump or his supporters. One clip depicts soldiers saying Trump must not be allowed to take office and should "never be president again." Multiple researchers have debunked the video, noting telltale signs of digital manipulation."

    LIES
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