The forces in them are mostly not mobile or equipped for attack operations and if cut off from supplies, will only weaken all the more. A war for an area in this fight will be won by interdicting logistics to an area and making its defense untenable.
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Last: 3 hrs ago by 74OA
I don't disagree and there are a bunch of such crossings none of them are really big enough to stop things more than a few days. A bridge across the Dnipro? Oh yeah. Most of the stuff are creeks and lots of them have been built up by earth and, at least according to Telegram discussions reinforced with earth and shaped to make it easier to repair.74OA said:All true but using HIMAR's ability to precisely and repeatedly hit bridges, crossings and culverts will be a more formidable repair challenge than just plinking away at the rails.aezmvp said:Only if you hit the train. Otherwise, even with as much damage as you can do with HIMARS or ATACAMs the Russians literally have engineering units designed for railroad repair. The grunts are grunts but the units are generally pretty good at this. So best case you hit the train, derail it and then hit the recovery and repair groups after with cluster munitions. Worst case it's out of action for a few days.74OA said:Puzzling as the new lines will be in HIMARS range which should severely limit their wartime utility.Rossticus said:
Russians currently constructing new rail lines to bypass Tokmak and make supply route from Crimea secondary. If they manage to complete these lines before Ukraine advances deeply in the southern direction then it'll be bad news.
Edit: Annnnnd I see others beat me to the punch.
My choice would be to hit them in a spot that forces the Russians to move recovery vehicles and troops to clear it and hit them again or hit a train while it's in it's offloading process for maximum damage/chaos.
I"m surprised they don't use drones to drop inexpensive explosive devices at remote locations along the track, triggered when the train goes over the device. Sure they will find some, but they could drop hundreds and they won't find them all.
SamjamAg said:
I"m surprised they don't use drones to drop inexpensive explosive devices at remote locations along the track, triggered when the train goes over the device. Sure they will find some, but they could drop hundreds and they won't find them all.
Sabotage on the ground would also be an option. Ukrainians look the same as Russians and there has to be a large Uke spy network in Crimea and the other occupied territories I would think. It seems like laying some explosives somewhere along the miles of track in the dark wouldn't be too difficult.
AgLA06 said:I get it from their perspective.74OA said:Puzzling as the new lines will be in HIMARS range which should severely limit their wartime utility.Rossticus said:
Russians currently constructing new rail lines to bypass Tokmak and make supply route from Crimea secondary. If they manage to complete these lines before Ukraine advances deeply in the southern direction then it'll be bad news.
- They have entire railroad brigades or divisions to do nothing but repair rail lines.
- They don't give a **** about them getting hit repairing them.
- They'll only be down for a short time after each strike.
- And it forces Ukraine to use HIMARs on them instead of other targets.
Russia may not care about a bunch of dead railroad workers in uniform, but what they'll see is unit and capability degradation. Also equipment loss. Railroad repair and maintenance equipment can pretty specialized.
bonfarr said:SamjamAg said:
I"m surprised they don't use drones to drop inexpensive explosive devices at remote locations along the track, triggered when the train goes over the device. Sure they will find some, but they could drop hundreds and they won't find them all.
Sabotage on the ground would also be an option. Ukrainians look the same as Russians and there has to be a large Uke spy network in Crimea and the other occupied territories I would think. It seems like laying some explosives somewhere along the miles of track in the dark wouldn't be too difficult.
Been done before. In WWII, a US submarine, USS Barb, landed some guys on one of the Japanese home islands in the middle of the night and they rigged explosives on a railroad track. Next train that came along triggered them and got blown to hell. What makes it a little funny is that one of the saboteurs was the sub's cook.
Effectively confirmed at this point, Russian air defenses appear to have downed a Russian Su-35 over Tokmak last night in a friendly fire incident. https://t.co/JzNHzoqgnl pic.twitter.com/YeC3VOFbGg
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 29, 2023
Russian and Ukrainian officials are increasingly reporting fewer Russian ground attacks in the #Kupyansk and Lyman directions, indicating that Ukrainian offensive operations have drawn Russian forces away from the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and significantly degraded the… https://t.co/Zpq3m2wol9 pic.twitter.com/uRv38cK1oB
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) September 29, 2023
Ukrainian pilots arrive in US for F-16 training. Remains to be seen to what extent a government shutdown will impact training.
JETS
JETS
Remarkably, Ukraine achieves natural gas independence in the midst of war. There was a nice article discussing the other measures Ukraine has taken to improve energy security not too long ago, but I can't find it again.
IIRC, the gist of it is that Ukraine has divided its main electrical grid into subsections which can be quickly quarantined from each other to prevent cascade failures from attacks. In addition to a plethora of generators, it has also heavily invested in wind- and solar-powered battery backups for individual facilities. Plus, it has hardened its energy infrastructure nodes as much as possible and stockpiled key components for quick replacement when needed.
All that in addition to recently connecting its electrical grid directly to the grids of its European neighbors will make for a much more bearable winter for Ukraine, particularly as it is now all protected by a far more robust IAD system.
GAS
NOTE: Earlier, I mistakenly posted this over on the other Ukraine discussion with predictable responses. <eye roll>
IIRC, the gist of it is that Ukraine has divided its main electrical grid into subsections which can be quickly quarantined from each other to prevent cascade failures from attacks. In addition to a plethora of generators, it has also heavily invested in wind- and solar-powered battery backups for individual facilities. Plus, it has hardened its energy infrastructure nodes as much as possible and stockpiled key components for quick replacement when needed.
All that in addition to recently connecting its electrical grid directly to the grids of its European neighbors will make for a much more bearable winter for Ukraine, particularly as it is now all protected by a far more robust IAD system.
GAS
NOTE: Earlier, I mistakenly posted this over on the other Ukraine discussion with predictable responses. <eye roll>
I get their frustration. It's hard to watch what's happening at home and worry about things overseas. Those things overseas have an impact all over the world but it isn't felt as immediately as the stuff at home. It's hard to stomach.
But I like the info on hardening the energy infrastructure. It's something that I wish we could do here a bit more. It's very vulnerable in the US.
But I like the info on hardening the energy infrastructure. It's something that I wish we could do here a bit more. It's very vulnerable in the US.
NASA's FIRMS suggests that the treelines south of Novopokrovka (north of Verbove) got hammered today. I remember seeing a tweet from someone that said Russians are favouring using treelines as defensive positions instead of the trenches. pic.twitter.com/PjbSyaSHT8
— Kyle Glen (@KyleJGlen) September 29, 2023
A battle in the Zaporizhzhia region under the cover of a Bradley IFV and a Leopard 2A6 MBT through the eyes of a fighter of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade. pic.twitter.com/etXa3G43zs
— deaidua.org 🇩🇪🤝🇺🇦 (@deaidua) September 29, 2023
hopefully on the approaches to VerboveWaffledynamics said:A battle in the Zaporizhzhia region under the cover of a Bradley IFV and a Leopard 2A6 MBT through the eyes of a fighter of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade. pic.twitter.com/etXa3G43zs
— deaidua.org 🇩🇪🤝🇺🇦 (@deaidua) September 29, 2023
although it doesn't seem incredibly tactically proficient to have one tank pretty much sitting in an open field by itself
UKE INF walking past dragons teeth in Verbove just hit reddit moments ago. Looks like their might be an armor piece up the road. Ground still smoking and appears to be final clearing operation.LMCane said:hopefully on the approaches to VerboveWaffledynamics said:A battle in the Zaporizhzhia region under the cover of a Bradley IFV and a Leopard 2A6 MBT through the eyes of a fighter of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade. pic.twitter.com/etXa3G43zs
— deaidua.org 🇩🇪🤝🇺🇦 (@deaidua) September 29, 2023
although it doesn't seem incredibly tactically proficient to have one tank pretty much sitting in an open field by itself
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/16viz0p/ukrainian_infantry_walking_past_dragon_teeth_near/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Gopro of clearing op Andreevka. Open area all around but utter destruction amongst the clearing. Enough so that retreating orcs leave cover about 25M from clearing INF. Start at 3:15 mark, guy wearing gopro shoots 3. "Flushing out the rats"!
Whole thing is worth watching. Slow going, a simple trip and fall could be your end or time in the hospital. This is probably what all of Occupied Ukraine will look like after Ukes push them out. What a painful cost on top of the Human Loss.
https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/16un2wy/the_target_is_in_the_house_opposite_fighting_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
This would sure be useful over there. I know we have some drone experts around, any idea if these are being tested live??
https://bcdc.tamus.edu/bush-combat-development-complex-laser-test-site-sep-2023/
https://bcdc.tamus.edu/bush-combat-development-complex-laser-test-site-sep-2023/
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Cool.80sGeorge said:
This would sure be useful over there. I know we have some drone experts around, any idea if these are being tested live??
https://bcdc.tamus.edu/bush-combat-development-complex-laser-test-site-sep-2023/
I know a number of those folks there. The director is an old Ag (well, older than me). Good guy. We're supposed to do some work with them this year.
I have not looked it up but how far inland are Russia's O&G refineries and processing plants? With Russia counting on so much of their GDP from those sales hitting them there would hurt them the most. But most of us have probably read Red Storm Rising and if they get hit Russia will go all out, maybe even nuclear.
P.U.T.U said:
I have not looked it up but how far inland are Russia's O&G refineries and processing plants? With Russia counting on so much of their GDP from those sales hitting them there would hurt them the most. But most of us have probably read Red Storm Rising and if they get hit Russia will go all out, maybe even nuclear.
How much damage to World markets would that do? If Ukraine set off a World energy crisis by taking out Russian production it wouldn't exactly make other nations sympathetic to their struggle.
Exactly. One of the reasons the West put a price cap on Russian oil rather than trying to ban it entirely is because anything approaching a complete loss of production would be economically disastrous.bonfarr said:P.U.T.U said:
I have not looked it up but how far inland are Russia's O&G refineries and processing plants? With Russia counting on so much of their GDP from those sales hitting them there would hurt them the most. But most of us have probably read Red Storm Rising and if they get hit Russia will go all out, maybe even nuclear.
How much damage to World markets would that do? If Ukraine set off a World energy crisis by taking out Russian production it wouldn't exactly make other nations sympathetic to their struggle.
For whom? Europe, China, India?Quote:
Exactly. One of the reasons the West put a price cap on Russian oil rather than trying to ban it entirely is because anything approaching a complete loss of production would be economically disastrous.
Russia, the others would just seek oil from other markets, at normal prices.
aggiehawg said:For whom? Europe, China, India?Quote:
Exactly. One of the reasons the West put a price cap on Russian oil rather than trying to ban it entirely is because anything approaching a complete loss of production would be economically disastrous.
I'm not buying it. Most of Europe has had 2 years to solve that problem. My understanding is most of Ukraine's biggest supporters are no longer reliant on Russia at this point.
Hell, an entire content was starving without Uke grain caused by the Russian blockade. That didn't seem to matter.
What I was thinking.VitruvianAg said:
Russia, the others would just seek oil from other markets, at normal prices.
74OA said:
Russian natural gas production slumps to late-stage USSR levels. Good job, Vlad.
GAS
Does this make them….
[ ]stronger
[x] not stronger
HERE YOU GOAgLA06 said:aggiehawg said:For whom? Europe, China, India?Quote:
Exactly. One of the reasons the West put a price cap on Russian oil rather than trying to ban it entirely is because anything approaching a complete loss of production would be economically disastrous.
I'm not buying it. Most of Europe has had 2 years to solve that problem. My understanding is most of Ukraine's biggest supporters are no longer reliant on Russia at this point.
Hell, an entire content was starving without Uke grain caused by the Russian blockade. That didn't seem to matter.
aggiehawg said:For whom? Europe, China, India?Quote:
Exactly. One of the reasons the West put a price cap on Russian oil rather than trying to ban it entirely is because anything approaching a complete loss of production would be economically disastrous.
Kind of depends. Refineries are designed and built to process specific blends, and not every oil is the same. You can't just buy x barrels from producer B instead of A because B's oil may not be what your refinery is designed and optimized for.
Quote:
UK planning to send troops into Ukraine to train Ukrainian forces on the ground, Defense Secretary Grant Shapps says - Telegraph
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/30-september-uk-planning-to-send-troops-into-ukraine-to-train
Well as the daughter and granddaughter of a Dad and Granddad being in the oil industry, I should have known that. I feel dumb but thank you for the clarification and reminder to remember my roots.Quote:
Kind of depends. Refineries are designed and built to process specific blends, and not every oil is the same. You can't just buy x barrels from producer B instead of A because B's oil may not be what your refinery is designed and optimized for.
Waffledynamics said:Quote:
UK planning to send troops into Ukraine to train Ukrainian forces on the ground, Defense Secretary Grant Shapps says - Telegraph
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/30-september-uk-planning-to-send-troops-into-ukraine-to-train
This probably more of a msg than anything but other article states additional mission to help secure marine grain shipments.
Ag with kids said:Cool.80sGeorge said:
This would sure be useful over there. I know we have some drone experts around, any idea if these are being tested live??
https://bcdc.tamus.edu/bush-combat-development-complex-laser-test-site-sep-2023/
I know a number of those folks there. The director is an old Ag (well, older than me). Good guy. We're supposed to do some work with them this year.
It melted the back end which may have contained the memory card. But it had no effect on the rotors or the drive unit and control board housed in the internal body of the drone. Correct me if I am wrong.
Hard to see how this tech is disabling drones.
I'll help.
The laser beam effector is tightly focused (very narrow) and precisely aimed (at the center of the quad-copter UAS).
You can see the effects of just a little laser "spill over" from the center of the quad copter onto the right aft leg of vehicle. It is quite simple to adjust the aim of the laser to a rotor housing.
Their are other counter-UAS technologies out there (kinetic / HPM / etc), but lasers will be an important part of the fight.
The laser beam effector is tightly focused (very narrow) and precisely aimed (at the center of the quad-copter UAS).
You can see the effects of just a little laser "spill over" from the center of the quad copter onto the right aft leg of vehicle. It is quite simple to adjust the aim of the laser to a rotor housing.
Their are other counter-UAS technologies out there (kinetic / HPM / etc), but lasers will be an important part of the fight.
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