https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/09/24/the-russians-are-making-their-first-new-tank-turbines-in-30-years-likely-signaling-a-very-long-war/?sh=4a818c2e50c7

Restarting production of T-80 turbine engines. They've been shut down for decades.

AlaskanAg99 said:

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This winter could be the turning point for Ukraine. If they can co tinge the oressure on Russian supplies, front line troops will be cold and hungry and General Winter will turn on the Russians.

This doesn't mean the Ukes can just roll in due to all the minefields, but if the RU troops are frostbitten, freezing and starving, their will to fight will be non existent. Plus drones with thermal sensors will have a much easier time identifying small units and dropping endless grenades yo demoralize them more.

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why would this winter be any different than LAST winter for the Russians?

if anything, they have dug in deeper and constructed even more defensive positions than the winter of 22.

LMCane said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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This winter could be the turning point for Ukraine. If they can co tinge the oressure on Russian supplies, front line troops will be cold and hungry and General Winter will turn on the Russians.

This doesn't mean the Ukes can just roll in due to all the minefields, but if the RU troops are frostbitten, freezing and starving, their will to fight will be non existent. Plus drones with thermal sensors will have a much easier time identifying small units and dropping endless grenades yo demoralize them more.

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why would this winter be any different than LAST winter for the Russians?

if anything, they have dug in deeper and constructed even more defensive positions than the winter of 22.

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Russians are already further demoralized. They've been on the line longer, no rotations. Ukes have oenetrated their lines and are better at disrupting supply lines. Less arty as counter battery fire contines to degrade Russian tube counts...

Just a few reasons.

Both sides haven't been able to effectively rotate troops. It's very hard to do, that's why there have only been a few militaries in modern history that have ever done it effectively. It's difficult, dangerous, requires lots of logistics and planning, training and great execution to prevent it being taken advantage of.

Will this winter be different? Not to the extent most would wish. The ability to bring C&C and logistics points deep in the Russian rear into range of at least their longest range weapons certainly helps but without being able to hit the bridge and severing the land bridge I doubt there will be a huge difference. One would think the Russian's execution on their annual mobilization class will be better than last year, no guarantee on that however.

Rumors of a large Ukrainian assault taking place right now in the South.

aezmvp said:

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Both sides haven't been able to effectively rotate troops. It's very hard to do, that's why there have only been a few militaries in modern history that have ever done it effectively. It's difficult, dangerous, requires lots of logistics and planning, training and great execution to prevent it being taken advantage of.

Will this winter be different? Not to the extent most would wish. The ability to bring C&C and logistics points deep in the Russian rear into range of at least their longest range weapons certainly helps but without being able to hit the bridge and severing the land bridge I doubt there will be a huge difference. One would think the Russian's execution on their annual mobilization class will be better than last year, no guarantee on that however.

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I think this is a MUCH more accurate analysis than claiming that the Russians are simply going to be cold this winter.

if the Russkies were able to launch counter-attacks and take Soledar and Bakhmut in the first winter of the war when they thought the war would be over in 10 days,

pretty sure they will be able to survive on day 670 of the war during a snowstorm.

the ENTIRE point of the Zaporizhe Oblast offensive has been to occupy Tokmak and Melitopol and cut the supply lines. if the Ukes can't do that, essentially nothing has changed from last winter.

More on the zombie Russian admiral rising from the dead.

Today's SITREP.

Gordo14 said:

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Rumors of a large Ukrainian assault taking place right now in the South.

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2/ Elements of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division are also reportedly deployed as far back as #Tokmak, continuing to suggest that the Russian command has not manned the multi-echeloned defense in southern #Ukraine in depth. https://t.co/o6p07xeReU pic.twitter.com/p5kQd4G14e

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) September 27, 2023

txags92 said:

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Gordo14 said:

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Rumors of a large Ukrainian assault taking place right now in the South.

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Don't expect another Kharkiv. Any offensive will be bloody and costly.

Waffledynamics said:

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txags92 said:

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Gordo14 said:

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Rumors of a large Ukrainian assault taking place right now in the South.

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Don't expect another Kharkiv. Any offensive will be bloody and costly.

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Oh, I am not, I was just hoping to see what some of the rumors were saying. Working out of town and don't have time to go looking for them myself.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 26 September 2023.

Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/vikVmpc42L

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/vNi947m6Ps

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) September 26, 2023

Instead of German leadership, more endless equivocation.

From DefenseOne: "France, the UK, and the U.S. have all sent or pledged long-range missiles to Ukraine. But Germany, with its Taurus long-range precision missiles, has not, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday from Berlin. What gives? According to German officials, "Chancellor Olaf Scholz had stalled the move because of concerns that German personnel would have to travel to Ukraine to help service and operate the complex weapon." Scholz reportedly wants parliament to vote on the question. But even if the decision receives quick approval, "Ukraine's fleet of Soviet-era warplanes will have to be retrofitted to be able to carry the missile," the Journal reports."

Today's SITREP.

Unless there is in fact a breakthrough. I suspect strongly that Russia lacks the men and equipment to sufficiently man all but the forward line and are hoping to be able to systematically pull back the forward forces to successive lines. If those forces get pinned in place under attack or their logistics are too degraded to withdraw faster than a successful Ukrainian attack, the rear lines may be undermanned and unable to halt a breakthrough.

Midday #Ukraine Map Update:

Ukrainian forces advanced in western #Zaporizhia Oblast to a new portion of the fighting positions west of #Verbove.

Ukraine also made gains in the area NW of #Bakhmut in #Donetsk Oblast. https://t.co/hwgxTnU2Tr pic.twitter.com/Cs6kLhB0AX

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) September 27, 2023

3/ Geolocated footage posted on September 26 indicates that Ukrainian forces also advanced southeastward east of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (northwest of #Bakhmut). https://t.co/hwgxTnU2Tr pic.twitter.com/Zesp0dybln

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) September 27, 2023

👇There are rumblings. I expect more information will filter out in due course. https://t.co/mQC5Dul1uw

— Patrick Fox (@RealCynicalFox) September 27, 2023

My sources tell me that #Tokmak direction is becoming increasingly hot by the hour. Ukraine has committed a full set of forces.

The bloodiest phase of the Ukrainian Offensive has begun.

Pray for the brave Ukrainians, who we owe so much!

— Thomas C. Theiner (@noclador) September 26, 2023

I'm not seeing a lot of evidence of a big Ukrainian push South yet. I'd be wary of those claiming there is one going on.

There hasn't been a lot of video on Telegram yet so I wonder if there isn't a misinformation campaign along with some extra artillery to shift reserves or force exposure of positions.

Why Ukraine getting the ATACMS cluster variant would be such a big problem for Russia.

MISSILE

Quote:

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ISW: Russian media continues to publish inconclusive "proof" that Black Sea Fleet Commander Admiral Viktor Solokov is alive. Zvezda News published an interview with Solokov on September 27, but ISW is unprepared at this time to make an assessment about the authenticity of the footage or the date of its filming.[10] The Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) have been notably silent on the matter and have not directly confirmed that Sokolov is alive.

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Quote:

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Russian aviation conducted airstrike at Avdiivka coke coal plant

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/28-september-russian-aviation-conducted-airstrike-at-avdiivka

Andrew Perpetua (good Twitter follow, btw) pointed out recently that three Russians have really increased their airstrikes lately.

This may be in lieu of missile strikes, due to lack of suitable missiles, as it exposes valuable aircraft to air defenses. Russia has also allegedly been turning out more guided air lunched glide bombs so they may be using those at safe standoff ranges.

Also an area that the Russians recently held so they can pinpoint exact areas of the plant if they wanted to.

instead of driving southwest towards Tokmak from Robytyne and Novo Propkiviko

that goes straight into the heart of Russkie trenchlines and defenses.

the Ukes should go directly south, not southwest.

the main objective should be cutting the Berdiansk-Prymorsk-Melitopol Highway. if they can do that, it also severs the Tokmak-Chernihivka supply lines.

yes, there are more river barriers to cross, but much fewer dragons teeth and built up defensive positions.

it makes more sense to sever supplies to a larger group of Russians without having to fight them, than to sever supply lines to fewer Russians and have to fight the remainder in face to face combat.

Russians currently constructing new rail lines to bypass Tokmak and make supply route from Crimea secondary. If they manage to complete these lines before Ukraine advances deeply in the southern direction then it'll be bad news.

Rossticus said:

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Russians currently constructing new rail lines to bypass Tokmak and make supply route from Crimea secondary. If they manage to complete these lines before Ukraine advances deeply in the southern direction then it'll be bad news.

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Puzzling as the new lines will be in HIMARS range which should severely limit their wartime utility.

LMCane said:

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instead of driving southwest towards Tokmak from Robytyne and Novo Propkiviko

that goes straight into the heart of Russkie trenchlines and defenses.

the Ukes should go directly south, not southwest.

the main objective should be cutting the Berdiansk-Prymorsk-Melitopol Highway. if they can do that, it also severs the Tokmak-Chernihivka supply lines.

yes, there are more river barriers to cross, but much fewer dragons teeth and built up defensive positions.

it makes more sense to sever supplies to a larger group of Russians without having to fight them, than to sever supply lines to fewer Russians and have to fight the remainder in face to face combat.

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It also means you leave those heavily fortified positions on your flanks.

74OA said:

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Rossticus said:

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Russians currently constructing new rail lines to bypass Tokmak and make supply route from Crimea secondary. If they manage to complete these lines before Ukraine advances deeply in the southern direction then it'll be bad news.

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Puzzling as the new lines will be in HIMARS range which should severely limit their wartime utility.

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I get it from their perspective.

• They have entire railroad brigades or divisions to do nothing but repair rail lines.
• They don't give a **** about them getting hit repairing them.
• They'll only be down for a short time after each strike.
• And it forces Ukraine to use HIMARs on them instead of other targets.

True, Russia may not have the technology we thought they had but they are very experienced constructing old things like rails.

Damn. Hit it once, then sometime again with 2x within 4-12 hours and start to destroy their abutting repair. The equipment can be there, but convince the troops to work in a bullseye….

74OA said:

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Rossticus said:

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Russians currently constructing new rail lines to bypass Tokmak and make supply route from Crimea secondary. If they manage to complete these lines before Ukraine advances deeply in the southern direction then it'll be bad news.

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Puzzling as the new lines will be in HIMARS range which should severely limit their wartime utility.

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Only if you hit the train. Otherwise, even with as much damage as you can do with HIMARS or ATACAMs the Russians literally have engineering units designed for railroad repair. The grunts are grunts but the units are generally pretty good at this. So best case you hit the train, derail it and then hit the recovery and repair groups after with cluster munitions. Worst case it's out of action for a few days.

Edit: Annnnnd I see others beat me to the punch.

Ag In Ok said:

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Damn. Hit it once, then sometime again with 2x within 4-12 hours and start to destroy their abutting repair. The equipment can be there, but convince the troops to work in a bullseye….

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It's Russia. They either do it or they kill them in a gruesome manner themselves so the next group doesn't even have a thought of objecting. Hell, they butcher living deserters to make an example so they could be used in medic training.

aezmvp said:

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74OA said:

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Rossticus said:

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Russians currently constructing new rail lines to bypass Tokmak and make supply route from Crimea secondary. If they manage to complete these lines before Ukraine advances deeply in the southern direction then it'll be bad news.

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Puzzling as the new lines will be in HIMARS range which should severely limit their wartime utility.

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Only if you hit the train. Otherwise, even with as much damage as you can do with HIMARS or ATACAMs the Russians literally have engineering units designed for railroad repair. The grunts are grunts but the units are generally pretty good at this. So best case you hit the train, derail it and then hit the recovery and repair groups after with cluster munitions. Worst case it's out of action for a few days.

Edit: Annnnnd I see others beat me to the punch.

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All true but using HIMAR's ability to precisely and repeatedly hit bridges, crossings and culverts will be a more formidable repair challenge than just plinking away at the rails.

They should try to identify when a train is in route with supplies, hit part of the track in front of them by a few miles. Train either goes off track or it stops and has to go back. Then hit behind the train so it has nowhere to go and hit that mofo too destroying supplies and crippling the track even more with the train damage on it.