Russia refuses to take back 58 injured PoW's, even though Ukraine is ready to transit them without any exchange (not 'one for one', no deal, basically, just take them). That's all you need to know about 'the second army in the world'

— Denis Zakharov (@betelgeuse1922) September 4, 2023

https://t.co/z0EkCQSGst

— Denis Zakharov (@betelgeuse1922) September 4, 2023

Rossticus said:

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Russia refuses to take back 58 injured PoW's, even though Ukraine is ready to transit them without any exchange (not 'one for one', no deal, basically, just take them). That's all you need to know about 'the second army in the world'

— Denis Zakharov (@betelgeuse1922) September 4, 2023

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I've never heard of such a thing.

I don't believe that is entirely accurate, or at least the truth is a bit more nuanced.

Quote:

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According to him, there are currently "few Russian prisoners of war whom we want to exchange for Ukrainian prisoners of war - they exist, but the number is insufficient."

Instead, Russia itself is not interested in its prisoners of war and does not want to take them back.

"Sometimes Russia is more interested in using both their own prisoners of war and relatives of Ukrainian prisoners of war, but not to return ours home. And to persuade the relatives of prisoners of war that Ukraine is guilty, Ukraine does not want to, we offer something, and they are not willing," Lubinets said.

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Very confused by the word "returned" in they way it is being used. Seems like a translation issue where it it being used for both "turned over" and "received" in different sentences. Sounded to me like what he is saying is that Russia believes the prisoners Ukraine has are more valuable to Russia while they are held by Ukraine, probably for propaganda value at home.

twk said:

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aezmvp said:

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If the choice for Putin is losing Crimea and a tactical nuke, I just don't know how he doesn't use the nuke. Flatly losing Crimea would end Putin. Someone would take him out.

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How is a tactical nuke going to be employed to save Crimea? Why do people keep trotting out this fantasy?

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well the Russians could annihilate Kyiv with a tactical nuke-

and that would likely lead the Ukrainians to have to sue for peace.

as well as starting an even larger NATO-Russia war.

Hopefully Putin is not that insane, but if he feels he can get away with it then it's always a possibility.

Notice how any time Ukraine is experiencing anything less than full success, the 'realist' takes come out about how western support is cracking and we really all oughta just pack it up and give Putin what he wants?

I don't think the analysis has really changed, though. 1/

— Bret Devereaux (@BretDevereaux) September 5, 2023

Really good thread

Can't read any of it, anyone have a summary?

Rossticus said:

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Russia refuses to take back 58 injured PoW's, even though Ukraine is ready to transit them without any exchange (not 'one for one', no deal, basically, just take them). That's all you need to know about 'the second army in the world'

— Denis Zakharov (@betelgeuse1922) September 4, 2023

https://t.co/z0EkCQSGst

— Denis Zakharov (@betelgeuse1922) September 4, 2023

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Pretty simple. Those injured POWs suck time and resources (that Russia doesn't have) away from Ukraine. They do Mother Russia no good beyond that.

Ukraine is past Russia's first defensive line.

"Experts believe the breakthrough is indeed a positive step for Ukrainian forces. According to Tarnavskyi, Russian forces have dedicated about 60% of their time and resources to the first line of defense. Conversely, only about 20% of available resources are dedicated to the second and third lines of defense. This is why the ISW has also estimated that Ukrainian forces are making advancements, while Russian troops are in increasingly dire circumstances."

PROGRESS

Much clearer picture:

⚡️CNN has published clearer images of the MAXAR satellite from Engels Air Force Base, which shows how the 🇷🇺Russian military has covered its Tu-95MS strategic bombers with ordinary car tires pic.twitter.com/F7ym5rMq6T

— 🇺🇦Ukrainian Front (@front_ukrainian) September 5, 2023

⚡️Russian pilot who defected to Ukraine to receive $500,000 reward.

Maksim Kuzminov, a Russian helicopter pilot who has defected to Ukraine, will receive the hryvnia equivalent of $500,000 (approximately Hr 18 million), Ukraine's Military Intelligence (HUR) spokesperson Andrii…

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) September 5, 2023

I'm guessing they've dispersed the airworthy aircraft and this is to try to hide the remainder. I don't see any props on that one.

PJYoung said:

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Much clearer picture:

⚡️CNN has published clearer images of the MAXAR satellite from Engels Air Force Base, which shows how the 🇷🇺Russian military has covered its Tu-95MS strategic bombers with ordinary car tires pic.twitter.com/F7ym5rMq6T

— 🇺🇦Ukrainian Front (@front_ukrainian) September 5, 2023

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"As we have explored in the past, the timing of this move, coming immediately after the announcement that Ukraine has modified its Neptune anti-ship cruise missile to hit targets on land, strongly suggests that the tires are intended to confuse incoming missiles' targeting systems."

MORE

Here's the full translation from Telegram, for anyone who's interested:

Yesterday, Ukraine announced the establishment of mixed medical commissions (QMS). During the briefing, Brigadier General Dmitry Usov, Secretary of the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, said that Russia did not take its wounded prisoners of war and announced the announcement of the names of the abandoned Russians.

The project "I want to live" is the first to publish lists of seriously wounded and sick prisoners of war of the Russian army, whom Russia refuses to take away.

"These are 59 Russian prisoners of war, whom Ukraine has already twice tried to unilaterally transfer to the Russian side on 11.07 and 16.08.2023. Both times, the Russian Federation refused to accept its prisoners. During this time, despite the efforts of doctors, one of the seriously wounded prisoners of war never waited to return home and died," said Dmitry Usov.

Ukraine adheres to the provisions of the Geneva Conventions on the Treatment of Prisoners of War. We constantly confirm this with actions, in particular the unilateral transfer of seriously wounded prisoners to Russia, as it was in March and April of this year.

On the contrary, the Russian Federation not only does not fulfill its international obligations under Articles 109-114 of the Geneva Conventions, and does not transfer seriously wounded Ukrainian prisoners, but also refuses to accept its own (!) Without any additional conditions. We emphasize that in this case it is not about the exchange of prisoners of war, but about repatriation.

This inhumane position of Russia forces us to take an unprecedented step - the publication of the lists. Perhaps their relatives and friends will be able to influence the Russian authorities and they will still take their soldiers back to Russia.

As we can see, the reality is at odds with Sergei Shoigu's statement that the release of prisoners is a priority for the Russian Federation.

Thread Rollup:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1699084153596379373.html

Gordo14 said:

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Notice how any time Ukraine is experiencing anything less than full success, the 'realist' takes come out about how western support is cracking and we really all oughta just pack it up and give Putin what he wants?

I don't think the analysis has really changed, though. 1/

— Bret Devereaux (@BretDevereaux) September 5, 2023

Really good thread

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Rossticus said:

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Thread Rollup:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1699084153596379373.html

Gordo14 said:

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Notice how any time Ukraine is experiencing anything less than full success, the 'realist' takes come out about how western support is cracking and we really all oughta just pack it up and give Putin what he wants?

I don't think the analysis has really changed, though. 1/

— Bret Devereaux (@BretDevereaux) September 5, 2023

Really good thread

---

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Bret Devereaux @BretDevereaux
Ancient & military historian specializing in the Roman economy and military. PhD @UNChistory

Notice how any time Ukraine is experiencing anything less than full success, the 'realist' takes come out about how western support is cracking and we really all oughta just pack it up and give Putin what he wants? I don't think the analysis has really changed, though. 1/

It's still better for NATO interests if Russia's armed forces are bogged down in Ukraine than available for deployment elsewhere. It's still cheaper to supply Ukraine with the weapons they need than to divert resources to deal with an unencumbered Russia. 2/

It's still in the interests of the USA to signal determination through action here; there are arguments about if credibility travels or not, but I will note the Taiwanese certainly think it does (https://nytimes.com/2023/05/30/us/politics/taiwan-ambassador-ukraine-china.html) and I am inclined to believe them. 3/

It would still be very bad for our interests if Russia was allowed to revise the status quo which says that international borders may not be redrawn by force. And the cost of supporting Ukraine is still small compared to the overall cost of our security infrastructure. 4/

And of course it is still the case that global American preeminence is substantially dependent on the United States' self-presentation as the defender of democracy and of liberal democracies, so it would be a blow to American soft power not to do that here. 5/

None of that calculus has changed. And meanwhile the Ukrainian people and their elected leaders retain the will and determination to continue to resist Russian aggression. If that changes, we can have a discussion, but right now they want victory as much as peace. 6/

Does that mean we shouldn't be looking at de-escalation and war-termination scenarios? Of course not. War is bad. But because of our interest calculus, the bar for acceptable war termination scenarios right now is pretty damn high. As it should be! 7/

A lot of these "I was for it, but only so long as it was easy" takes seem to have fundamentally misunderstood what kind of war this was always going to be. Back in Feb. of 2022 the consensus I saw was that outcomes ranged from "long insurgency" to "long conventional war." 8/

That was what I put in writing as my best assessment of the western consensus here (https://acoup.blog/2022/02/25/miscellanea-understanding-the-war-in-ukraine/) on Feb 25th. And on that assessment, we are basically on the leading edge of "best case outcomes for Ukraine" right now. 9/

In short, there is not a lot of actual realism in these 'realist' takes. To be blunt, I think a proper realist analysis, one focused on interests, would conclude that it is in NATO's interest to twist the knife in Putin's self-inflicted wound as sharply as possible. 10/

Instead, what I think we're seeing is efforts by folks to smuggle back into the discussion priors which were fatally undermined by the course of the war to date under the label of 'realism.'
And that's not realism - that's an ideological commitment masquerading as realism. /end.

I should add one thing, which is the argument that the other economic costs (mostly energy costs) to the West are too high. Those costs are baked in. Russian gas isn't coming back to Europe. That cost is as sunk as the Moskva and so doesn't figure in peace analysis.

Now I'm confused. He starts with the supposition that Ukraine is currently experiencing something "less than full success," and cites this as the reason that "the 'realist' takes come out about how western support is cracking..."

He then concludes that "we are basically on the leading edge of "best case outcomes for Ukraine" right now."

I don't understand how he arrives at that conclusion from his starting point that it isn't going well.

B-1 83 said:

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Rossticus said:

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Russia refuses to take back 58 injured PoW's, even though Ukraine is ready to transit them without any exchange (not 'one for one', no deal, basically, just take them). That's all you need to know about 'the second army in the world'

— Denis Zakharov (@betelgeuse1922) September 4, 2023

https://t.co/z0EkCQSGst

— Denis Zakharov (@betelgeuse1922) September 4, 2023

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Pretty simple. Those injured POWs suck time and resources (that Russia doesn't have) away from Ukraine. They do Mother Russia no good beyond that.

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Plus they make it clear to the folks back home that Russia is not winning and all is not going according to plan.

Rossticus said:

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In the context of the tweet I take "less than full success" to mean less than "rapid, large scale progress".

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Yep. Lots of basement armchair quarterbacks in a day and age of instant gratification perplexed that the Ukes haven't won the war already.

They're only vastly outnumbered and going up against the supposed number 2 military in the world. But since they held Kyiv, they're magically just supposed to steam roll Russia like we did Iraq. Except without air control just because the west has supplied a hodge podge list of old equipment. It's not like they're fighting against a dug in enemy or anything.

They're succeeding more than anyone (including our military experts) ever thought they could. But as he said, pre-conceived agendas are the problem.

And yet we have lots of supposed "media' and influential figures who do just that anytime an offensive takes slower than hoped or Russia launches an offensive and take a little ground.

We saw it a lot of the last month. Even from some in our own government. And that's his point. Don't fall for Russia supporters or media / influential people that have been bought off.

First Challenger-2 tank destroyed in combat near Robotyne, but more importantly it's reported the crew survived. It apparently hit a mine and was then targeted by a Lancet drone while disabled.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/first-ever-challenger-2-tank-lost-in-combat/

snizzler22 said:

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First Challenger-2 tank destroyed in combat near Robotyne, but more importantly it's reported the crew survived. It apparently hit a mine and was then targeted by a Lancet drone while disabled.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/first-ever-challenger-2-tank-lost-in-combat/

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MORE

IMHO that reinforces its survivability to be operating in that hot of an area for weeks with only 1 lost.

Southern #Ukraine 🧵

1/ Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in western #Zaporizhia Oblast on Sept. 4 & made tactically significant advances. Geolocated footage shows that Ukrainian forces advanced south of #Robotyne and west of #Verbove. https://t.co/WYHWCm1pQh https://t.co/qJzriXwQMd pic.twitter.com/36HZkubwfj

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) September 5, 2023

Here's some background on that Russian pilot who defected to Ukraine in his helo.

FLIGHT

Good God.

This is Friday night in Ukraine, near #Robotyne today. Ukraine's 47th mech brigade sent me this video. We enjoy our Friday beer in the West. The 47th is advancing towards the Sea of Azov. Let us help them. Here is the donation link, drones for the 47th /1 https://t.co/YLa4UvjIQN pic.twitter.com/RHH6GkkTAt

— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) September 1, 2023

Pretty good Speak the Truth episode with Matt instead of Rob this time. Lots of information and cutting through propaganda of both sides.



Edit: Unsure of why it won't embed.

Quote:

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Shahed drones attack was reported in the south of Odesa region

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/6-september-shahed-drones-attack-was-reported-in-the-south

Interesting and bold, especially considering some drones crashed inside Romania yesterday.

Ukraine attempts to exploit the recent breach of the main Russian defensive line.

Today's SITREP.

Gallant Russia at work liberating Ukraine from the Nazis.

Russian attack on Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region - on the local market. As of now, we know of 16 people dead and 20 wounded. A child is among the victims - Ukrainian Prime Minister.

Terrorist state continues terrorizing civilians.

📹: ZelenskyyUa pic.twitter.com/aqfj0nFYHP

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 6, 2023

74OA said:

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Gallant Russia at work liberating Ukraine from the Nazis.

Russian attack on Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region - on the local market. As of now, we know of 16 people dead and 20 wounded. A child is among the victims - Ukrainian Prime Minister.

Terrorist state continues terrorizing civilians.

📹: ZelenskyyUa pic.twitter.com/aqfj0nFYHP

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 6, 2023

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And this is in the part of Ukraine that supposedly is "ethically Russian" and voted for independence.

Here’s a picture of it, it has a fuze and water jug attached with a pole, as a counter weight. 😂😂 pic.twitter.com/Tf8rLFLc22

— Mad_mechanic911 (@Madmechanic911) September 6, 2023