Thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1592981718658449408.html

2/ Olga Romanova is the founder of the human rights group Russia Behind Bars, which campaigns for the rights of prisoners. It has been closely following the widespread recruitment by Wagner of prisoners from Russian penal colonies, which has taken place across Russia.

— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) November 16, 2022

The United States, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic are working together on the modernization of 90 T-72 tanks for Ukraine.

— Michael MacKay (@mhmck) November 17, 2022

Iranian Mohajer-6 Drones Used By Russia Loaded With Western Parts https://t.co/G14NjdVIkh

— The War Zone (@thewarzonewire) November 17, 2022

The article talks about a lot of these parts being available on Alibaba. An Israeli-made optical sensor is on these, too. For sale online via third party sites.

Yep. It's just too cheap and easy to construct these things compared to the cost of defending against them.

New wave of cruise missile launches on Ukraine from Caspian Sea reported. Explosions noted in Kyiv air defence working. Explosions also in Dnipro, power outages reported.

— ELINT News (@ELINTNews) November 17, 2022

Also, the head of the Regional Military Administration Oleksii Kuleba reported on the work of air defense in Kyiv Oblast. 2/2

— Hromadske Int. (@Hromadske) November 17, 2022

New Russian missile strikes in Ukraine are aimed at gas production objects - Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. https://t.co/yjTWrYk16V

— Status-6 (@Archer83Able) November 17, 2022

Two infrastructure facilities in Dnipro were hit. Dnipro Mayor Borys Filatov informed that four victims of the shelling have already been reported, including a 15-year-old child.

Russia also launched a missile attack on an infrastructure facility in Odesa Oblast.

— Hromadske Int. (@Hromadske) November 17, 2022

Per diplomatic sources who spoke with @yossi_melman , Israel had agreed to do so after Biden admin urged it to move up from just humanitarian aid. The matrials were delivered to Ukraine via a NATO member which supplies Kyiv with armshttps://t.co/j2jmp747h8

— avi scharf (@avischarf) November 17, 2022

Rossticus said:

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Yep. It's just too cheap and easy to construct these things compared to the cost of defending against them.

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What are their defensive capabilities. With a cruise speed of 130km/h, it seems they would be vulnerable to a low cost counterattacks. Are we going to see next gen antidrone drones or a bunch of Ukrainians flying converted agricultural biplanes armed with Vickers machine guns.

Quote:

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WASHINGTON -- An American stockbroker who made a fortune in the Russian market in the 1990s and 2000s and later co-founded a posh Moscow nightclub before leaving the country died of blunt force injuries suffered as a result of a fall from a Washington, D.C. building.

In 2016, four years after leaving Russia, Rapoport set up an office in Kyiv and opened a private equity fund. It was tough going. Ukraine's economy struggled amid an ongoing war with Russia-backed separatists in two eastern regions and the slow implementation of Western-backed reforms.

In social-media posts over the ensuing years, he was a vocal supporter of Ukraine and an outspoken critic of Putin.

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Russian stockbroker falls off building in DC

Putin critics falling from heights everywhere. Curious if he was involved with any financial transactions aiding Ukraine.

RuZZian operatives in DC!

Who'da thunk it? He must have really pee'd Putin off.

With cameras everywhere it's seems it wouldn't be hard to see who entered and left the building. Cars up and down the street, etc

Something is missing. Maybe he jumped. It seems unlikely.

NATO and Polish officials said that it was a Ukrainian missile that crossed the border and killed two people, but that Russia bore the blame.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/16/world/europe/ukraine-russia-poland-explosion.html

Rossticus said:

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Yep. It's just too cheap and easy to construct these things compared to the cost of defending against them.

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I'm sure all the electronics are commercial/off-the-shelf components readily available in the global supply chain, produced by the millions and impossible to track every single one. These parts would not meet US military standards, but they will more than work for cheap disposable weapons being producing by a third world country for a proxy war.

Quote:

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General staff of armed forces of Ukraine: with control of river Dnipro banks Ukrainian artillery have fire control over territories near occupied Crimea

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/17-november-general-staff-of-armed-forces-of-ukraine-with

BlueTaze said:

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NATO and Polish officials said that it was a Ukrainian missile that crossed the border and killed two people, but that Russia bore the blame.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/16/world/europe/ukraine-russia-poland-explosion.html

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I think this is likely but again even if it was Russia NATO would be well incentivized to say this and then just step up more lethal supplies in response. Escalating would be exceedingly foolish on NATO's side and would likely fracture the alliance over so small an attack/accident. Tanks into the Baltics? Yeah Art V. Nuke strike... wooboy yes. But cruise missile kills 2 farmers in the middle of no where and not on video? Yeah not going to endanger tens of millions for that. No winning calculus there.

Interesting thread. Add Crimea elec substations to the list of ATACMS targets.

🧵⚡️ I believe that 3 substations have been targeted recently in Crimea. Some of them are way beyond the reach of any missiles we have: Titan (Armiansk), Dzhankoi and Kafa (Feodosia). pic.twitter.com/wnr36xJ6VF

— Smart Ukrainian Cat 🍉 (@SmartUACat) November 17, 2022

One of the biggest export controls is over GPS access. GPS chips, down in the lithography, have speed cut outs where if you exceed like 500 mph it'll delay the data and then somewhere there is a cutout speed all together.

It looks like these loitering munitions purposefully stay below a GPS cutout speed until they're in divebomb mode near the target.

Don't recall this being posted yet. Drone R&D. Would like to see them deployed.

Heavy - drones of Ukrainian production. pic.twitter.com/jQbxV8H7BD

— M|§F|T 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@am_misfit) November 16, 2022

Those have already been deployed. I'm waiting to see them use machine learning to teach the drones to identify targets and then engage them autonomously (within geo-fenced boundaries or use of some sort of IFF technology).

Germany continues to offer its armor to eastern European armies in return for them donating ex-Soviet armor to Ukraine.

The exchange gives European allies a quick upgrade and Ukraine receives prompt delivery of urgently needed armor it already knows how to use and maintain.

WIN-WIN

Rossticus said:

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"There can be a political solution to this conflict with the withdrawal of the Russians from Crimea. It is possible," - US Army General Mark Milley.

— MAKS 22🇺🇦 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) November 16, 2022

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so as the F16 Board of Directors: would we tell Zelensky to take a peace deal based on Ukraine being given back the Crimea..

and yet Putin will still control Donetsk and Luhansk?

from a military standpoint it seems harder to defend the territorial integrity of Ukraine with having to station troops in southern Crimea all up to Kharkiv with the Donbas being a huge bulge into your territory.

on the other hand, it may be more strategically advantageous to have the ports and airfields and open terrain of Crimea.

I'm undecided on the issue.

LMCane said:

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Rossticus said:

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"There can be a political solution to this conflict with the withdrawal of the Russians from Crimea. It is possible," - US Army General Mark Milley.

— MAKS 22🇺🇦 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) November 16, 2022

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so as the F16 Board of Directors: would we tell Zelensky to take a peace deal based on Ukraine being given back the Crimea..

and yet Putin will still control Donetsk and Luhansk?

from a military standpoint it seems harder to defend the territorial integrity of Ukraine with having to station troops in southern Crimea all up to Kharkiv with the Donbas being a huge bulge into your territory.

on the other hand, it may be more strategically advantageous to have the ports and airfields and open terrain of Crimea.

I'm undecided on the issue.

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It'll be easier to take back the Donbas when the rest of the Russian territories start revolting after this war. Russia is proportionally sending men from its "least Russian" regions to Ukraine and when those men go back home and Russia's economy eventually tanks, Russia will have a big problem on its hand.

A significant portion of their most pissed off population who are also the least loyal will have the most combat experience of anybody in tge country, so that is pretty foreboding for the elite back in Moscow and St Petersburg.

revvie said:

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Rossticus said:

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Yep. It's just too cheap and easy to construct these things compared to the cost of defending against them.

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What are their defensive capabilities. With a cruise speed of 130km/h, it seems they would be vulnerable to a low cost counterattacks. Are we going to see next gen antidrone drones or a bunch of Ukrainians flying converted agricultural biplanes armed with Vickers machine guns.

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it does seem like the WWII anti-aircraft guns could be making a great comeback. what's old is new again.

"The Kremlin is forcing President Zelenskyy to negotiate with its strikes on Ukraine's critical infrastructure," - Peskov

— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) November 17, 2022

If I was UKR, I would press for 1991 boarders. This is the only way to humiliate Russia into never trying this again. If you give their propaganda machine any escape avenue, the risk of another Russian attack in 6-8 years is magnified.

The US security interests would be best served by a slow bleed of Russian's ability to conduct war resulting in a Ukrainian win. Allow Russia to bleed its resources out. This is not the most humanitarian strategy though.

Someone sent a message to Solovyev about his country being in the "total a*s" and he just had to react 😂 pic.twitter.com/fYay4Bm2dL

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 17, 2022

Worth a read from @JackDetsch & @ak_mack.

The West is coming to the rude realization that military realities haven't changed based on the (incorrect) hopes that large scale conventional warfare was a thing of the past.https://t.co/F1s64uVjax

— Patrick Fox (@RealCynicalFox) November 17, 2022

Solovyov has yet again made an absurd comparison between Olaf Scholz and Hitler after the German Chancellor said the Przewodow incident wouldn't have happened without Russia invading Ukraine to start with

"Why did you shave off your moustache? Adolf, we didn't recognise you!" pic.twitter.com/oZzqmZkagm

— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) November 17, 2022

one MEEN Ag said:

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One of the biggest export controls is over GPS access. GPS chips, down in the lithography, have speed cut outs where if you exceed like 500 mph it'll delay the data and then somewhere there is a cutout speed all together.

It looks like these loitering munitions purposefully stay below a GPS cutout speed until they're in divebomb mode near the target.

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I wouldn't think that this would be totally true. Otherwise, how would Garmin GPS systems work within jet airliners and business jets that regularly exceed 500 mph? Even my iPad using Foreflight works at more than 500 mph. I'd think there are other reasons that the loitering munitions stay below these speeds. Such as cost of propulsion and fuel consumption/load capacity.

⚡️⚡️⚡️ The court in The Hague today decided that the plane MH17 in the sky over Donbas in 2014 was shot down by the Buk air defense system, a missile launched from Pervomaisk... (Russian occupied) 👀 pic.twitter.com/O3MVjYxqmE

— MAKS 22🇺🇦 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) November 17, 2022

Ukraine clearly does not want any negotiations so the goals of the special military operation must be achieved - Kremlin

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) November 17, 2022

Rossticus said:

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Worth a read from @JackDetsch & @ak_mack.

The West is coming to the rude realization that military realities haven't changed based on the (incorrect) hopes that large scale conventional warfare was a thing of the past.https://t.co/F1s64uVjax

— Patrick Fox (@RealCynicalFox) November 17, 2022

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I have been wondering how long the West can keep supplying. Can Russia wait it out long enough until Western supplies are low enough to where the West has to pull back support?

Rossticus said:

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Worth a read from @JackDetsch & @ak_mack.

The West is coming to the rude realization that military realities haven't changed based on the (incorrect) hopes that large scale conventional warfare was a thing of the past.https://t.co/F1s64uVjax

— Patrick Fox (@RealCynicalFox) November 17, 2022

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for countries without airpower like ours!

The MIC approves of this MSG and is happy to oblige continued disbursements and restocking.