“The Germans are being more careful and checking the dates,” he adds
— Oliver Carroll (@olliecarroll) April 17, 2022
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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48542 Replies |
Last: 12 hrs ago by Waffledynamics
"One plane (appr$25mln) can save thousands of innocent lives.🇺🇦pilots, who are courageously fighting the invader, use Su22,Su25, Su27,Su24, MiG29. List of available aircraft&locations: https://t.co/suQlmHaNZF We will also be able to quickly master &protect🇺🇦skies on F15, F16,F18"
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) April 17, 2022
MeatDr said:"One plane (appr$25mln) can save thousands of innocent lives.🇺🇦pilots, who are courageously fighting the invader, use Su22,Su25, Su27,Su24, MiG29. List of available aircraft&locations: https://t.co/suQlmHaNZF We will also be able to quickly master &protect🇺🇦skies on F15, F16,F18"
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) April 17, 2022
What good is a western jet without the support for maintenance?
🇷🇺 continues to forcibly mobilize all male residents of the occupied Donbas aged between 18 and 60. Even special connections with local "administration" do not save from being drafted, since the 🇷🇺 curators aren’t satisfied with the implementation of the plan. (1/3)
— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) April 17, 2022
🇷🇺 has been talking about saving Donbas for 8 years. Now the masks are thrown off. Mariupol was obliterated, rocket attacks on Kramatorsk, forced mobilization. Illusions about 🇷🇺 have vanished among the local residents. When 🇺🇦 frees Donbas, peace will return there. (3/3)
— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) April 17, 2022
GAC06 said:
4 rounds per minute maximum with a trained and proficient crew. 2 rounds per minute sustained. In no case could they just volley fire all 40k rounds at once. Thanks for your input.
Firing at the theoretical sustained or maximum rate isn't remotely realistic.
Yeah, I'm aware that they aren't going to actually fire all 40k at once but I'm not the one that suggested that to begin with...
Has Russia ever even successfully performed an amphibious invasion? I guess I can't see how they have the history with it to make those landing ships all that intimidating. If they're having trouble with a mostly ground invasion right on their border, how are they going to possibly expect success doing it the harder way?MeatDr said:Russian Baltic Fleet is ramping up activities. Both Zubr-class LCACs are loaded with naval inf vehicles and the Northern Fleet large landing ship Ivan Gren has also entered the Baltic Sea.
— Petri Mäkelä (@pmakela1) April 17, 2022
With most of the landing assets in Black Sea, these assets are likely for intimidating 🇫🇮🇸🇪 pic.twitter.com/MSgv1r73vt
I predicted this early on, it's the only way the invasion makes sense.
Russia expected Donbas to join, not resist. They also expected token resistance in the rest of the country. Putin really thought he was liberating Ukraine; he believed his own propaganda a lot more than the Ukrainians ever did.
So now, Russia has:
Strengthened NATO's sense of purpose
Forced several more countries to join NATO
Forced Europe to invest heavily in alternatives to Russian energy
Weakened the eastern bloc alliance
Obliterated Russia's prestige and credibility
Decisively lost any sympathy that previously existed in Eastern Ukraine
Next up: keep an eye on Belarus. Antiwar violence has begun. I doubt this will foment regime change and a split from Russia, but it could.
It seems very unlikely that he's going to control significant new parts of Ukraine after this; at best he'll keep Crimea and the Donbas will be some kind of DMZ.
Russia expected Donbas to join, not resist. They also expected token resistance in the rest of the country. Putin really thought he was liberating Ukraine; he believed his own propaganda a lot more than the Ukrainians ever did.
So now, Russia has:
Strengthened NATO's sense of purpose
Forced several more countries to join NATO
Forced Europe to invest heavily in alternatives to Russian energy
Weakened the eastern bloc alliance
Obliterated Russia's prestige and credibility
Decisively lost any sympathy that previously existed in Eastern Ukraine
Next up: keep an eye on Belarus. Antiwar violence has begun. I doubt this will foment regime change and a split from Russia, but it could.
It seems very unlikely that he's going to control significant new parts of Ukraine after this; at best he'll keep Crimea and the Donbas will be some kind of DMZ.
Not for an amphibious landing, but likely loading to either deliver reinforcements around Mariupol or to demonstrate near Odessa to keep Ukraine from shifting forces from there to the eastern front.Waffledynamics said:Has Russia ever even successfully performed an amphibious invasion? I guess I can't see how they have the history with it to make those landing ships all that intimidating. If they're having trouble with a mostly ground invasion right on their border, how are they going to possibly expect success doing it the harder way?MeatDr said:Russian Baltic Fleet is ramping up activities. Both Zubr-class LCACs are loaded with naval inf vehicles and the Northern Fleet large landing ship Ivan Gren has also entered the Baltic Sea.
— Petri Mäkelä (@pmakela1) April 17, 2022
With most of the landing assets in Black Sea, these assets are likely for intimidating 🇫🇮🇸🇪 pic.twitter.com/MSgv1r73vt
74OA said:Not for an amphibious landing, but likely loading to either deliver reinforcements around Mariupol or to demonstrate near Odessa to keep Ukraine from shifting forces from there to the eastern front.Waffledynamics said:Has Russia ever even successfully performed an amphibious invasion? I guess I can't see how they have the history with it to make those landing ships all that intimidating. If they're having trouble with a mostly ground invasion right on their border, how are they going to possibly expect success doing it the harder way?MeatDr said:Russian Baltic Fleet is ramping up activities. Both Zubr-class LCACs are loaded with naval inf vehicles and the Northern Fleet large landing ship Ivan Gren has also entered the Baltic Sea.
— Petri Mäkelä (@pmakela1) April 17, 2022
With most of the landing assets in Black Sea, these assets are likely for intimidating 🇫🇮🇸🇪 pic.twitter.com/MSgv1r73vt
It's the Baltic fleet, not the Black Sea. They can't gain entry to the Black Sea. This is a Jerry Jeff Walker maneuver known as Pissin in the Wind.
74OA said:Not for an amphibious landing, but likely loading to either deliver reinforcements around Mariupol or to demonstrate near Odessa to keep Ukraine from shifting forces from there to the eastern front.Waffledynamics said:Has Russia ever even successfully performed an amphibious invasion? I guess I can't see how they have the history with it to make those landing ships all that intimidating. If they're having trouble with a mostly ground invasion right on their border, how are they going to possibly expect success doing it the harder way?MeatDr said:Russian Baltic Fleet is ramping up activities. Both Zubr-class LCACs are loaded with naval inf vehicles and the Northern Fleet large landing ship Ivan Gren has also entered the Baltic Sea.
— Petri Mäkelä (@pmakela1) April 17, 2022
With most of the landing assets in Black Sea, these assets are likely for intimidating 🇫🇮🇸🇪 pic.twitter.com/MSgv1r73vt
They can't get into the Black Sea, Turkey has it closed.
These Russian resources are in the Baltic Sea (Northern Europe).
This is the Baltic, not the Black.
Bosporus is closed by Turkey. Russia is not getting any additional assets into the Black Sea.
Bosporus is closed by Turkey. Russia is not getting any additional assets into the Black Sea.
Turkey will not let any of those ships into the Black Sea. Also that would weaken their Baltic Fleet74OA said:Not for an amphibious landing, but likely loading to either deliver reinforcements around Mariupol or to demonstrate near Odessa to keep Ukraine from shifting forces from there to the eastern front.Waffledynamics said:Has Russia ever even successfully performed an amphibious invasion? I guess I can't see how they have the history with it to make those landing ships all that intimidating. If they're having trouble with a mostly ground invasion right on their border, how are they going to possibly expect success doing it the harder way?MeatDr said:Russian Baltic Fleet is ramping up activities. Both Zubr-class LCACs are loaded with naval inf vehicles and the Northern Fleet large landing ship Ivan Gren has also entered the Baltic Sea.
— Petri Mäkelä (@pmakela1) April 17, 2022
With most of the landing assets in Black Sea, these assets are likely for intimidating 🇫🇮🇸🇪 pic.twitter.com/MSgv1r73vt
They were given a surrender or else ultimatum with a deadline of 9am this morning.
Its rumored that the RuAF is dropping FAB-500s on the facility. Would concur with footage of heavy bombers airborne above the city earlier this morning. pic.twitter.com/0paX2hvQ4m
— Justin Peden 🇺🇦🦀 (@IntelCrab) April 17, 2022
This has been his weapon of psychological deterrence from the start. After the slaughter he has unleashed, I don't think the Ukes will ever bend the knee - even if a tac nuke is deployed. It will likely raise their fury to an even higher level if that's possible.G Martin 87 said:
Wargaming predicts stalemate ahead as neither Ukraine nor Russia will have the ability to maintain offensives soon.
https://mwi.usma.edu/wargaming-a-long-war-ukraine-fights-on/
Putin's overarching goal in all of his previous military actions has been to restore Russian national identity and glory by reversing the collapse of the Soviet/Russian Union/Federation. If protracted stalemate is the future in Ukraine, I just find it very hard to believe that he won't resort to a tactical nuke in a desperate attempt to win. The rhetoric on both sides has ramped up to the point where a negotiated settlement will not satisfy him.
And one would hope that NATO has identified an array of targets which could be immediately destroyed in response. So the outcome Putin's anticipating may be exactly the opposite and potentially cripple his efforts from that point forward…but again, one would hope.
Oooops, read right past Baltic Sea and ass-u-me-d the Black Sea.BQ_90 said:Turkey will not let any of those ships into the Black Sea. Also that would weaken their Baltic Fleet74OA said:Not for an amphibious landing, but likely loading to either deliver reinforcements around Mariupol or to demonstrate near Odessa to keep Ukraine from shifting forces from there to the eastern front.Waffledynamics said:Has Russia ever even successfully performed an amphibious invasion? I guess I can't see how they have the history with it to make those landing ships all that intimidating. If they're having trouble with a mostly ground invasion right on their border, how are they going to possibly expect success doing it the harder way?MeatDr said:Russian Baltic Fleet is ramping up activities. Both Zubr-class LCACs are loaded with naval inf vehicles and the Northern Fleet large landing ship Ivan Gren has also entered the Baltic Sea.
— Petri Mäkelä (@pmakela1) April 17, 2022
With most of the landing assets in Black Sea, these assets are likely for intimidating 🇫🇮🇸🇪 pic.twitter.com/MSgv1r73vt
Ukraine's responses into Russia itself has been very limited to this point. If RU uses a tactical nuke on Ukraine soil, all gloves are off for any and all attacks on Russian soil. There would be an unbelievable number of terror attacks in every major Russian city and the war would become real to the everyday RU citizen.AGS-R-TUFF said:This has been his weapon of psychological deterrence from the start. After the slaughter he has unleashed, I don't think the Ukes will ever bend the knee - even if a tac nuke is deployed. It will likely raise their fury to an even higher level if that's possible.G Martin 87 said:
Wargaming predicts stalemate ahead as neither Ukraine nor Russia will have the ability to maintain offensives soon.
https://mwi.usma.edu/wargaming-a-long-war-ukraine-fights-on/
Putin's overarching goal in all of his previous military actions has been to restore Russian national identity and glory by reversing the collapse of the Soviet/Russian Union/Federation. If protracted stalemate is the future in Ukraine, I just find it very hard to believe that he won't resort to a tactical nuke in a desperate attempt to win. The rhetoric on both sides has ramped up to the point where a negotiated settlement will not satisfy him.
And one would hope that NATO has identified an array of targets which could be immediately destroyed in response. So the outcome Putin's anticipating may be exactly the opposite and potentially cripple his efforts from that point forward…but again, one would hope.
Company I-1, Ord-Ords '85 -12thFan and Websider-
Happy Easter! He is risen, but the Moskva has not.
Way past time for some fighter jets to find their way to Ukraine.
Ulysses90 said:74OA said:Not for an amphibious landing, but likely loading to either deliver reinforcements around Mariupol or to demonstrate near Odessa to keep Ukraine from shifting forces from there to the eastern front.Waffledynamics said:Has Russia ever even successfully performed an amphibious invasion? I guess I can't see how they have the history with it to make those landing ships all that intimidating. If they're having trouble with a mostly ground invasion right on their border, how are they going to possibly expect success doing it the harder way?MeatDr said:Russian Baltic Fleet is ramping up activities. Both Zubr-class LCACs are loaded with naval inf vehicles and the Northern Fleet large landing ship Ivan Gren has also entered the Baltic Sea.
— Petri Mäkelä (@pmakela1) April 17, 2022
With most of the landing assets in Black Sea, these assets are likely for intimidating 🇫🇮🇸🇪 pic.twitter.com/MSgv1r73vt
It's the Baltic fleet, not the Black Sea. They can't gain entry to the Black Sea. This is a Jerry Jeff Walker maneuver known as Pissin in the Wind.
Pissin' in the wind, bettin' on a losing friend
Makin' the same mistakes, we swore we'd never make again
Truer words have never been spoken about the Russian military.
#Kyiv area, a #Ukrainian EOD tech defuses a MON-90 directional anti-personnel mine that was hidden under what appears to be a shopping bag. - MoD.#RussiaUkraineWar #Ukraine #UkraineRussianWar pic.twitter.com/oP1lCgBcmj
— Euromaidan PR (@EuromaidanPR) April 16, 2022
Remember the Russian propaganda tweet showing armed Ukraine soldiers getting out of an ambulance? OSINT investigation in the thread below. They were helping citizens evacuate at that time and thus acting as noncombatants.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1515363257284014082.html
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1515363257284014082.html
The investigation on this tweet from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia is a team effort together with @Techjournalisto, @ArchitMeta and @akhmxt.
— Brecht Castel (@brechtcastel) April 16, 2022
(Follow them if you like these kind of #OSINT-investigations.)
The short video is viewed more than 110K times. 2/... pic.twitter.com/16qdqC5xRe
In this case, it seems to be an evacuation of civilians with the soldiers as an armed escort.
— Brecht Castel (@brechtcastel) April 16, 2022
We found no evidence that these soldiers would have wounded or killed any enemies while using the van with the red cross.
So there is no evidence of a war crime here. 27/...
At some point soon Putin will announce victory and fortify his hold in the east. His popularity in Russia will go up, and the west will lean on Ukraine to accept a settlement to end the bloodshed.
Russian fascist invaders have launched an offensive to take Lozove on the boundary between Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts. Last reports have the rashists using multiple-launch rocket systems intensively but Ukrainian defenders holding the village. pic.twitter.com/kvuJvQFzxI
— Michael MacKay (@mhmck) April 17, 2022
Maybe he thought a secondary explosion was a third missile?
Speaking to @novayagazeta_en, the mother of one of the Mosvka cruiser survivors says he told her that three (not two, as reported by Kyiv) Neptune missiles struck the ship, killing 40ish sailors and injuring a lot of people. Hundreds are still missing. https://t.co/x7uxwVDZ4g
— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) April 17, 2022
Around 8:30 mark. Really concerned this is…going to get out of hand today.
Quote:
krainian intelligence published audio of what it said was an intercepted call of a Russian solider allegedly telling his wife that Moscow's own forces had bombed a town in Russia in order to blame the attack on Kyiv's military.
Aleksandr Bogomaz, the governor of Russia's Bryansk region bordering Ukraine, alleged on Thursday that two buildings in the town of Klimovo were damaged in an attack carried out by Ukrainian forces, Radio Free Europe reported. Russia's state-run TASS news agency cited medical workers, who said that seven people including a pregnant woman, were harmed in the assault.
Quote:
On Friday, the Security Service of Ukraine released audio of a call it said was between a Russian soldier and his wife discussing the Klimovo attack. The roughly two and a half minute audio clip was published to the intelligence service's official Facebook page. Newsweek has not independently verified the audio.
Quote:
"These are our heroes," the Russian soldier can be heard telling his wife, according to a translation. When his wife asked "why" Moscow would do such a thing, he responds, by saying it is "necessary" and "is done in order to provoke" Ukrainians.
LinkQuote:
The soldier goes on to point to bombings that occurred in Moscow ahead of the Second Chechen War. "It was the same in the Chechen War. Apartments were blown up in Moscow, like terrorists," he says.
amercer said:
At some point soon Putin will announce victory and fortify his hold in the east. His popularity in Russia will go up, and the west will lean on Ukraine to accept a settlement to end the bloodshed.
Why would we? They are killing Russians and grinding up Russian weaponry. Plus, it keeps the spotlight off our domestic problems.
The Germans and select others may want it to end, but what leverage do they really have? The US, GB, and the eastern euros (Hungary excepted) are the Uke sponsors.
Ukrainian forces successfully counter-attacked against Russian fascist forces in Kharkiv region. Northeast of Kharkiv, Bobrivka has been liberated and nearby Kutuzivka is being contested. East of "Little Rohan" the villages of Leb'yazhe and Bazeliyivka have been liberated. pic.twitter.com/iL9aDKS7yu
— Michael MacKay (@mhmck) April 17, 2022
April 17 Assessment Highlight:#Russian forces deploying to eastern #Ukraine reportedly continue to face significant morale and supply issues and appear unlikely to intend, or be able to, conduct a major offensive surge in the coming days.https://t.co/tz8B1w4xEo
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) April 17, 2022
#Mariupol Update:#Russian forces likely seek to force the defenders of the Azovstal factory to capitulate through overwhelming firepower to avoid costly clearing operations, but remaining #Ukrainian defenders appear intent on staging a final stand.https://t.co/tz8B1w4xEo pic.twitter.com/RaEB9HxRIi
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) April 17, 2022
#Kharkiv and #Izyum Update:#Russian forces are increasingly attempting to leverage conscripts and proxy units in #Izyum, indicating continuing challenges generating the forces necessary to encircle #Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine.https://t.co/tz8B1w4xEo
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) April 17, 2022
#Ukrainian stores sell AN-225 "Mriya" toy planes and Javelin anti-tank missiles.
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) April 17, 2022
The toys were found in one of the hypermarkets in #Zaporizhzhya. pic.twitter.com/XukaUfvtjO
— Oryx (@oryxspioenkop) April 17, 2022
As far as I can tell they are made by a Ukrainian toy company. https://toys-kopitsa.com.ua/uk/vse-bude-ukrayina/
Lots of pictures of the war at this Link
This tells us all we need to know about the future of Russian/Ukrainian relations: There won't be any.
Ukraine used to be a huge supplier to Russia's defense industry. That changed after Crimea, but they were still exporting major and key components for Russian weapons. After this, I can see a full on embargo on anything remotely weapons related, if Ukraine is willing to sell them anything at all. Russia can kiss a lot of their top of the line systems goodbye without Ukrainian cooperation.
That will be a hard pill for Russia to swallow, since they export a lot of weapons and will need to rebuild a large amount of equipment. It also means the Chinese can corner the market on countries the US and Europeans won't sell to, and it's doubtful Russia can make up that market share anytime soon.
Honestly, win, lose, or draw in this conflict, Putin has made a massive strategic blunder. This will take Russia decades to recover from. Even if they withdraw, I see some sanctions, like those against military supply chains, becoming permanent. They're going to waste a huge portion of their military assets in Ukraine, and they won't have the cash or the suppliers to rebuild them. They've also only strengthened their adversaries in NATO and China, and they've blown years of strategic development to get Europe dependent on Russian gas. They'll still be about to sell it, but Europe is on a path to diversification, and they're not going to be looking back after this. That political leverage is going to be gone.
Even if they get parts of eastern Ukraine, they'll likely face an insurgency Hell bent on killing and punishing them. Anyone left will good a special hated in their heart for Russians. Any Russians moving there are going to be treated like carpetbaggers, and it wouldn't shock me if many ended up dead. The Russians will have to keep troops and armor there for decades, and they'll have to pay for it.
All the while, the next generation of Ukrainians will be raised on stuffed bayraktars and javelins.
Ukraine used to be a huge supplier to Russia's defense industry. That changed after Crimea, but they were still exporting major and key components for Russian weapons. After this, I can see a full on embargo on anything remotely weapons related, if Ukraine is willing to sell them anything at all. Russia can kiss a lot of their top of the line systems goodbye without Ukrainian cooperation.
That will be a hard pill for Russia to swallow, since they export a lot of weapons and will need to rebuild a large amount of equipment. It also means the Chinese can corner the market on countries the US and Europeans won't sell to, and it's doubtful Russia can make up that market share anytime soon.
Honestly, win, lose, or draw in this conflict, Putin has made a massive strategic blunder. This will take Russia decades to recover from. Even if they withdraw, I see some sanctions, like those against military supply chains, becoming permanent. They're going to waste a huge portion of their military assets in Ukraine, and they won't have the cash or the suppliers to rebuild them. They've also only strengthened their adversaries in NATO and China, and they've blown years of strategic development to get Europe dependent on Russian gas. They'll still be about to sell it, but Europe is on a path to diversification, and they're not going to be looking back after this. That political leverage is going to be gone.
Even if they get parts of eastern Ukraine, they'll likely face an insurgency Hell bent on killing and punishing them. Anyone left will good a special hated in their heart for Russians. Any Russians moving there are going to be treated like carpetbaggers, and it wouldn't shock me if many ended up dead. The Russians will have to keep troops and armor there for decades, and they'll have to pay for it.
All the while, the next generation of Ukrainians will be raised on stuffed bayraktars and javelins.
So much this. Russia's standing in the world will never be the same.Quote:
Honestly, win, lose, or draw in this conflict, Putin has made a massive strategic blunder. This will take Russia decades to recover from. Even if they withdraw, I see some sanctions, like those against military supply chains, becoming permanent. They're going to waste a huge portion of their military assets in Ukraine, and they won't have the cash or the suppliers to rebuild them. They've also only strengthened their adversaries in NATO and China, and they've blown years of strategic development to get Europe dependent on Russian gas. They'll still be about to sell it, but Europe is on a path to diversification, and they're not going to be looking back after this. That political leverage is going to be gone.
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