Used by Russian forces near Kharkiv. This is a very new (2021 production) antipersonnel mine and rocket delivery system. It has a seismic proximity fuze, is a bounding fragmentation type, and has a self-destruct feature. https://t.co/YTRgutOwXn @minefreeworld @hrw pic.twitter.com/ffvqBEdjWv
— Mark Hiznay (@MarkHiznay) March 29, 2022
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
7,613,812 Views |
47853 Replies |
Last: 6 hrs ago by 74OA
A $20.3MM order from -U.S.-Special-Operations-Command Sounds a bit small and for specialized applications. Not sure how big of production run you get for $20MMUlysses90 said:The production contract was awarded din November and delivery is supposed to be complete by January 2023. They should be rolling off the production line right now.74OA said:IIRC, the 600 isn't in production. The administration can't provide what it doesn't possess.Ulysses90 said:That is exactly right. The Switchblade really needs to work with another observer platform to identify targets before launching the Switchblade. The Switchblade 600 only has a 40km range which means it can't loiter for very long. However, if another observer can identify and prioritize targets the Switchblade operators could do all sorts of interesting things like a coordinated simultaneous attack.aezmvp said:Specs on a 600 would allow them to get in range of most if not all Russian SPG and artillery positions. Would probably need some directional assist with some spotting or intel from other assets to reach the far end of their range however. (Direct line vs. search pattern range.)Captain Positivity said:
Artillery and MLRS is what they need to be taking out. The Ukes want Russia fighting at close range.
The only relevant Switchblade is the 600. It's like a loitering Javelin. The Switchblade 300 is like a loitering 40mm shaped charge grenade. The 300 is probably OK for killing the occupants of a soft skinned civilian vehicle but because it's a shaped charge anti-vehicle weapon it's not even that good if it hits the ground in the middle of a dismounted squad because the ground absorbs the majority of the blast.
I am worried that the Biden administration has promised "100 Switchblades" but I haven't seen it stated clearly that those are going to be Switchblade 600s vice the cheap 300s that would not be useful at all.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211104005095/en/AeroVironment-Awarded-20.3-Million-Switchblade-600-Tactical-Missile-Systems-Hardware-Contract-by-U.S.-Special-Operations-Command
Updates:
— Ukraine War Map (@War_Mapper) March 29, 2022
🇺🇦 have taken back control of Irpin
🇺🇦 resecured Rudnyts'ke (E of Kyiv)
🇷🇺 continue to attack in Donbas with no significant updates to control
ttu_85 said:A $20.3MM order from -U.S.-Special-Operations-Command Sounds a bit small and for specialized applications. Not sure how big of production run you get for $20MMUlysses90 said:The production contract was awarded din November and delivery is supposed to be complete by January 2023. They should be rolling off the production line right now.74OA said:IIRC, the 600 isn't in production. The administration can't provide what it doesn't possess.Ulysses90 said:That is exactly right. The Switchblade really needs to work with another observer platform to identify targets before launching the Switchblade. The Switchblade 600 only has a 40km range which means it can't loiter for very long. However, if another observer can identify and prioritize targets the Switchblade operators could do all sorts of interesting things like a coordinated simultaneous attack.aezmvp said:Specs on a 600 would allow them to get in range of most if not all Russian SPG and artillery positions. Would probably need some directional assist with some spotting or intel from other assets to reach the far end of their range however. (Direct line vs. search pattern range.)Captain Positivity said:
Artillery and MLRS is what they need to be taking out. The Ukes want Russia fighting at close range.
The only relevant Switchblade is the 600. It's like a loitering Javelin. The Switchblade 300 is like a loitering 40mm shaped charge grenade. The 300 is probably OK for killing the occupants of a soft skinned civilian vehicle but because it's a shaped charge anti-vehicle weapon it's not even that good if it hits the ground in the middle of a dismounted squad because the ground absorbs the majority of the blast.
I am worried that the Biden administration has promised "100 Switchblades" but I haven't seen it stated clearly that those are going to be Switchblade 600s vice the cheap 300s that would not be useful at all.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211104005095/en/AeroVironment-Awarded-20.3-Million-Switchblade-600-Tactical-Missile-Systems-Hardware-Contract-by-U.S.-Special-Operations-Command
Well, the 600 series I'd supposedly $50k or less. So about 500 from that order would be my guess.
ttu_85 said:A $20.3MM order from -U.S.-Special-Operations-Command Sounds a bit small and for specialized applications. Not sure how big of production run you get for $20MMUlysses90 said:The production contract was awarded din November and delivery is supposed to be complete by January 2023. They should be rolling off the production line right now.74OA said:IIRC, the 600 isn't in production. The administration can't provide what it doesn't possess.Ulysses90 said:That is exactly right. The Switchblade really needs to work with another observer platform to identify targets before launching the Switchblade. The Switchblade 600 only has a 40km range which means it can't loiter for very long. However, if another observer can identify and prioritize targets the Switchblade operators could do all sorts of interesting things like a coordinated simultaneous attack.aezmvp said:Specs on a 600 would allow them to get in range of most if not all Russian SPG and artillery positions. Would probably need some directional assist with some spotting or intel from other assets to reach the far end of their range however. (Direct line vs. search pattern range.)Captain Positivity said:
Artillery and MLRS is what they need to be taking out. The Ukes want Russia fighting at close range.
The only relevant Switchblade is the 600. It's like a loitering Javelin. The Switchblade 300 is like a loitering 40mm shaped charge grenade. The 300 is probably OK for killing the occupants of a soft skinned civilian vehicle but because it's a shaped charge anti-vehicle weapon it's not even that good if it hits the ground in the middle of a dismounted squad because the ground absorbs the majority of the blast.
I am worried that the Biden administration has promised "100 Switchblades" but I haven't seen it stated clearly that those are going to be Switchblade 600s vice the cheap 300s that would not be useful at all.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211104005095/en/AeroVironment-Awarded-20.3-Million-Switchblade-600-Tactical-Missile-Systems-Hardware-Contract-by-U.S.-Special-Operations-Command
With the 300 estimated at around $6,000 I'd assume you could get a run of several hundred 600s out of that.
You could do about 400 of each in rough math.
Bingo!Agsuffering@bulaw said:
Best case for Russia, plans A and B failed. But, they built in a plan C contingency. They are now running it.
I just can't imagine anyone throws their best airborne units into the fire as a diversion.
- Plan A: Kiev is a bases-loaded walk-off homerun.
- Plan B: Kiev takes longer than expected but ties up Uke resources.
- Plan X: Failure. Redeployment.
#Kherson and Southern Advance Update:
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) March 29, 2022
There were no reported significant changes in the situation in the Kherson or #Zaporizhiya regions in the last 24 hours.https://t.co/BSuAoB8YZ7
GEOINT analysis on 25 March 2022 shows several Russian naval vessels moored at the port of Sevastopol. https://t.co/epfzHDle1I #GEOINT #Geospatial #Intelligence #Russia #Navy #Cruiser #Corvette #MissileFrigate #Submarine #SituationalAwarness #Monitoring #SpecializedSolutions pic.twitter.com/FJi0MrVVb9
— AllSource Analysis (@AllSourceA) March 29, 2022
that second part is tricky though, because if they miscalculate, ukraine will wipe out those forces and reposition east anyway
— Gerry Doyle (@mgerrydoyle) March 29, 2022
ttu_85 said:A $20.3MM order from -U.S.-Special-Operations-Command Sounds a bit small and for specialized applications. Not sure how big of production run you get for $20MMUlysses90 said:The production contract was awarded din November and delivery is supposed to be complete by January 2023. They should be rolling off the production line right now.74OA said:IIRC, the 600 isn't in production. The administration can't provide what it doesn't possess.Ulysses90 said:That is exactly right. The Switchblade really needs to work with another observer platform to identify targets before launching the Switchblade. The Switchblade 600 only has a 40km range which means it can't loiter for very long. However, if another observer can identify and prioritize targets the Switchblade operators could do all sorts of interesting things like a coordinated simultaneous attack.aezmvp said:Specs on a 600 would allow them to get in range of most if not all Russian SPG and artillery positions. Would probably need some directional assist with some spotting or intel from other assets to reach the far end of their range however. (Direct line vs. search pattern range.)Captain Positivity said:
Artillery and MLRS is what they need to be taking out. The Ukes want Russia fighting at close range.
The only relevant Switchblade is the 600. It's like a loitering Javelin. The Switchblade 300 is like a loitering 40mm shaped charge grenade. The 300 is probably OK for killing the occupants of a soft skinned civilian vehicle but because it's a shaped charge anti-vehicle weapon it's not even that good if it hits the ground in the middle of a dismounted squad because the ground absorbs the majority of the blast.
I am worried that the Biden administration has promised "100 Switchblades" but I haven't seen it stated clearly that those are going to be Switchblade 600s vice the cheap 300s that would not be useful at all.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211104005095/en/AeroVironment-Awarded-20.3-Million-Switchblade-600-Tactical-Missile-Systems-Hardware-Contract-by-U.S.-Special-Operations-Command
I agree with you. Essentially, the promise to provide Switchblades to Ukraine is diverting the SOCOM contract to Ukraine and there is probably a hasty follow-on contract being drafted with a J&A to sole-source to Aerovironment. The effectiveness of drone delivered ordnance in Ukraine is probably causing a reassessment on hom many of these that the US DoD needs.
The board of directors at Aerovironment arr probably very happy right now and Raytheon and Lockheed are probably regretting that they didn't acquire them a year or two ago before their value suddenly ballooned.
Yes if the plant is tooled and ready and it maybe it is. And I doubt the 600's are $6K each given a Javelin is $157K . Similar warhead granted with the Javelin you have the launch tube and its a guided munition but so is the 600. Pure speculation from us all on this one.Rossticus said:ttu_85 said:A $20.3MM order from -U.S.-Special-Operations-Command Sounds a bit small and for specialized applications. Not sure how big of production run you get for $20MMUlysses90 said:The production contract was awarded din November and delivery is supposed to be complete by January 2023. They should be rolling off the production line right now.74OA said:IIRC, the 600 isn't in production. The administration can't provide what it doesn't possess.Ulysses90 said:That is exactly right. The Switchblade really needs to work with another observer platform to identify targets before launching the Switchblade. The Switchblade 600 only has a 40km range which means it can't loiter for very long. However, if another observer can identify and prioritize targets the Switchblade operators could do all sorts of interesting things like a coordinated simultaneous attack.aezmvp said:Specs on a 600 would allow them to get in range of most if not all Russian SPG and artillery positions. Would probably need some directional assist with some spotting or intel from other assets to reach the far end of their range however. (Direct line vs. search pattern range.)Captain Positivity said:
Artillery and MLRS is what they need to be taking out. The Ukes want Russia fighting at close range.
The only relevant Switchblade is the 600. It's like a loitering Javelin. The Switchblade 300 is like a loitering 40mm shaped charge grenade. The 300 is probably OK for killing the occupants of a soft skinned civilian vehicle but because it's a shaped charge anti-vehicle weapon it's not even that good if it hits the ground in the middle of a dismounted squad because the ground absorbs the majority of the blast.
I am worried that the Biden administration has promised "100 Switchblades" but I haven't seen it stated clearly that those are going to be Switchblade 600s vice the cheap 300s that would not be useful at all.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211104005095/en/AeroVironment-Awarded-20.3-Million-Switchblade-600-Tactical-Missile-Systems-Hardware-Contract-by-U.S.-Special-Operations-Command
With the 300 estimated at around $6,000 I'd assume you could get a run of several hundred 600s out of that.
ttu_85 said:Yes if the plant is tooled and ready and it maybe it is. And I doubt the 600's are $6K each given a Javelin is $157K . Similar warhead granted with the Javelin you have the launch tube and its a guided munition but so is the 600.Rossticus said:ttu_85 said:A $20.3MM order from -U.S.-Special-Operations-Command Sounds a bit small and for specialized applications. Not sure how big of production run you get for $20MMUlysses90 said:The production contract was awarded din November and delivery is supposed to be complete by January 2023. They should be rolling off the production line right now.74OA said:IIRC, the 600 isn't in production. The administration can't provide what it doesn't possess.Ulysses90 said:That is exactly right. The Switchblade really needs to work with another observer platform to identify targets before launching the Switchblade. The Switchblade 600 only has a 40km range which means it can't loiter for very long. However, if another observer can identify and prioritize targets the Switchblade operators could do all sorts of interesting things like a coordinated simultaneous attack.aezmvp said:Specs on a 600 would allow them to get in range of most if not all Russian SPG and artillery positions. Would probably need some directional assist with some spotting or intel from other assets to reach the far end of their range however. (Direct line vs. search pattern range.)Captain Positivity said:
Artillery and MLRS is what they need to be taking out. The Ukes want Russia fighting at close range.
The only relevant Switchblade is the 600. It's like a loitering Javelin. The Switchblade 300 is like a loitering 40mm shaped charge grenade. The 300 is probably OK for killing the occupants of a soft skinned civilian vehicle but because it's a shaped charge anti-vehicle weapon it's not even that good if it hits the ground in the middle of a dismounted squad because the ground absorbs the majority of the blast.
I am worried that the Biden administration has promised "100 Switchblades" but I haven't seen it stated clearly that those are going to be Switchblade 600s vice the cheap 300s that would not be useful at all.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211104005095/en/AeroVironment-Awarded-20.3-Million-Switchblade-600-Tactical-Missile-Systems-Hardware-Contract-by-U.S.-Special-Operations-Command
With the 300 estimated at around $6,000 I'd assume you could get a run of several hundred 600s out of that.
That's why I said several hundred and not a couple thousand. Assumed 600s would be appreciably more costly. Should have maybe said "a few hundred". Depends on where you draw the line between "several" and "a few", I suppose.
*** If you don't have anything nice to say to posters who provide material, keep it to yourself and stop derailing -- Staff ***
This may be a lot of tin foil hat, but is anyone else worried they may be opening the door to the tactical nuclear option? Getting their forces back from the front lines and securing the south with the intention of decapitating the country would be an extreme excalation, but:
1) Biden just said they Putin shouldn't remain in power. He was right by all moral accounts, but saying it out loud changed what was a pretty good handling of the situation diplomatically and threw us into no mans land. We didn't even suggest regime change in the cold war. That statement was the single most dangerous thing he could have said. I've supported the administration's handling of the situation thus far, and I know a lof of y'all dissagree, but that single statement could be the single most dangerous thought verbalized by a US president.
2) They've been getting whipped and de-escalation by escalation is a tenant of policy for Russia.
3) The two explosions in Belgorod give Russia the excuse to escalate the conflict in regards to communicating it to their domestic population. That's the only thing they care about at this point and really the only thing that can stop them.
4) They just accused us of catastrophic cyber attacks and vowed response.
I may be being paranoid, but tactical nuclear weapons are 100% on the table for Putin.
1) Biden just said they Putin shouldn't remain in power. He was right by all moral accounts, but saying it out loud changed what was a pretty good handling of the situation diplomatically and threw us into no mans land. We didn't even suggest regime change in the cold war. That statement was the single most dangerous thing he could have said. I've supported the administration's handling of the situation thus far, and I know a lof of y'all dissagree, but that single statement could be the single most dangerous thought verbalized by a US president.
2) They've been getting whipped and de-escalation by escalation is a tenant of policy for Russia.
3) The two explosions in Belgorod give Russia the excuse to escalate the conflict in regards to communicating it to their domestic population. That's the only thing they care about at this point and really the only thing that can stop them.
4) They just accused us of catastrophic cyber attacks and vowed response.
I may be being paranoid, but tactical nuclear weapons are 100% on the table for Putin.
wtmartinaggie said:
This may be a lot of tin foil hat, but is anyone else worried they may be opening the door to the tactical nuclear option? Getting their forces back from the front lines and securing the south with the intention of decapitating the country would be an extreme excalation, but:
1) Biden just said they Putin shouldn't remain in power. He was right by all moral accounts, but saying it out loud changed what was a pretty good handling of the situation diplomatically and threw us into no mans land. We didn't even suggest regime change in the cold war. That statement was the single most dangerous thing he could have said. I've supported the administration's handling of the situation thus far, and I know a lof of y'all dissagree, but that single statement could be the single most dangerous thought verbalized by a US president.
2) They've been getting whipped and de-escalation by escalation is a tenant of policy for Russia.
3) The two explosions in Belgorod give Russia the excuse to escalate the conflict in regards to communicating it to their domestic population. That's the only thing they care about at this point and really the only thing that can stop them.
4) They just accused us of catastrophic cyber attacks and vowed response.
I may be being paranoid, but tactical nuclear weapons are 100% on the table for Putin.
Tactical nucs won't happen. Putin wants to stay in power more than anything, using tactical nucs guarantees he won't
That guy has had pretty good content that is a good accessory to most of the conversation here and its all in one place. Most of the stuff he shows/reports is stuff that is already posted here, but he brings it all together.
Its not an absolute watch, but its really good and I'd recommend it. I watch them in the morning while prepping paperwork for patients.
Its not an absolute watch, but its really good and I'd recommend it. I watch them in the morning while prepping paperwork for patients.
Source: Ukraine’s Defense Ministry
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 29, 2022
➡️ https://t.co/lw7iBdVoOM pic.twitter.com/IaQhohC4yY
Agvet12 said:wtmartinaggie said:
This may be a lot of tin foil hat, but is anyone else worried they may be opening the door to the tactical nuclear option? Getting their forces back from the front lines and securing the south with the intention of decapitating the country would be an extreme excalation, but:
1) Biden just said they Putin shouldn't remain in power. He was right by all moral accounts, but saying it out loud changed what was a pretty good handling of the situation diplomatically and threw us into no mans land. We didn't even suggest regime change in the cold war. That statement was the single most dangerous thing he could have said. I've supported the administration's handling of the situation thus far, and I know a lof of y'all dissagree, but that single statement could be the single most dangerous thought verbalized by a US president.
2) They've been getting whipped and de-escalation by escalation is a tenant of policy for Russia.
3) The two explosions in Belgorod give Russia the excuse to escalate the conflict in regards to communicating it to their domestic population. That's the only thing they care about at this point and really the only thing that can stop them.
4) They just accused us of catastrophic cyber attacks and vowed response.
I may be being paranoid, but tactical nuclear weapons are 100% on the table for Putin.
Tactical nucs won't happen. Putin wants to stay in power more than anything, using tactical nucs guarantees he won't
While I certainly agree that it most likely won't happen I don't think you can speak in absolutes and completely dismiss the idea.
It was an idiotic comment. Needed to just lay low and allow them to slowly bleed out.
Thanks for the post, I enjoy his summaries but do not want to subscribe.ATX_AG_08 said:
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
I agree on plausibility on tactical nuke strike. Somebody has to be the tenth man!wtmartinaggie said:
This may be a lot of tin foil hat, but is anyone else worried they may be opening the door to the tactical nuclear option? Getting their forces back from the front lines and securing the south with the intention of decapitating the country would be an extreme excalation, but:
1) Biden just said they Putin shouldn't remain in power. He was right by all moral accounts, but saying it out loud changed what was a pretty good handling of the situation diplomatically and threw us into no mans land. We didn't even suggest regime change in the cold war. That statement was the single most dangerous thing he could have said. I've supported the administration's handling of the situation thus far, and I know a lof of y'all dissagree, but that single statement could be the single most dangerous thought verbalized by a US president.
2) They've been getting whipped and de-escalation by escalation is a tenant of policy for Russia.
3) The two explosions in Belgorod give Russia the excuse to escalate the conflict in regards to communicating it to their domestic population. That's the only thing they care about at this point and really the only thing that can stop them.
4) They just accused us of catastrophic cyber attacks and vowed response.
I may be being paranoid, but tactical nuclear weapons are 100% on the table for Putin.
However if he was going to do it he would leave his people there to help deflect responsibility and blame it on some overstressed lower ranking officer that he can make disappear.
Most of us view the world as more benign than it really is, our own attributes as more favorable than they truly are, and the goals we adopt as more achievable than they are likely to be. We also tend to exaggerate our ability to forecast the future, which fosters overconfidence." Daniel Kahneman
All the while, barely committing forces until recently to seize the Donbas which was the decisive operation? So 75% to shaping operations and 25% to the decisive operation (which a significant of RUS forces committed to Donbas are from poorly trained and equipped rebels)? pic.twitter.com/ouETnvtBEU
— All Source News (@All_Source_News) March 30, 2022
Roll up for non-Tweeters: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1508973978236469251.html
ATX_AG_08 said:
Thanks for posting them. I hadn't been watching them til recently, but now I listen to them on my
Drive home.
I'll repeat what i tell folks very often. The US armed forces make complex shi$ look easy.Maroon Dawn said:
The biggest head scratcher in all of this is: where is the Russian Air Force? They've basically ceded the skies to Ukraine and their ground forces are being devastated because of it
The RuAF is flying relatively far away from their bases, in hostile air space.
For close support they have Su-25s and Su-34s.
The SU-25s cannot be refueled in the air. The SU-34s are too fast, and cannot loiter. i doubt they practice inflight refueling much, if at all.
Those that loiter have to deal with a tremendous amount of MANPADS . (BTW, i am very skeptical of any Uke AF ops, i dont think Uke air force pilots want to be flying in these conditions either).
Communication between ground troops and the RuAF will be tenuous at best.
All in all, it's a recipe for disaster.
i do think this would have been the case for any country not called the US of A. Our armed forces kick ass.
The Russian jet engines are notoriously bad as well. I think I read where they need to overhaul the engines about every 400 hrs of flight time and they crap out pretty fast. I believe that is also a shortcoming of the Chinese engines as well. Figure in austere conditions for maintenance and supply issues, you have a very low sortie rate for their air power in theater.deddog said:I'll repeat what i tell folks very often. The US armed forces make complex shi$ look easy.Maroon Dawn said:
The biggest head scratcher in all of this is: where is the Russian Air Force? They've basically ceded the skies to Ukraine and their ground forces are being devastated because of it
The RuAF is flying relatively far away from their bases, in hostile air space.
For close support they have Su-25s and Su-34s.
The SU-25s cannot be refueled in the air. The SU-34s are too fast, and cannot loiter. i doubt they practice inflight refueling much, if at all.
Those that loiter have to deal with a tremendous amount of MANPADS . (BTW, i am very skeptical of any Uke AF ops, i dont think Uke air force pilots want to be flying in these conditions either).
Communication between ground troops and the RuAF will be tenuous at best.
All in all, it's a recipe for disaster.
i do think this would have been the case for any country not called the US of A. Our armed forces kick ass.
Hell they dont fly all that much in peace time anyway compared to Western pilots. No real coordination in close air support either. Just a discombobulated mess compared to NATO or the US.
I just read up on it and the overhaul time for a GE-F414 engine that powers the F-18 is 6000 hrs.
Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
"How unfortunate" https://t.co/lxqjyTCBJe
— EnclaveOfficer 🇺🇦 (@OfficerEnclave) March 30, 2022
Ukraine’s besieged port city of Mariupol pictured before and after Russia’s invasion.
— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) March 29, 2022
Mariupol city officials said this week that Russian attacks have killed 5,000 people since Feb. 24
📷:@Maxar pic.twitter.com/2LbvDdoAh6
Guess Russia has to invade Belarus next. What good is a puppet if you can't make them dance?
— spook (@spook_info) March 30, 2022
Have friends that worked for Exxon on the island of Sakhalin and they told me the most beautiful Russia women are there. They have an eye for the western expatriate, many a western man took a bride from Sakhalin. Poor but so is Urkraine, in fact, Ukraine is the poorest country in Europe.Rossticus said:Source: Ukraine’s Defense Ministry
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 29, 2022
➡️ https://t.co/lw7iBdVoOM pic.twitter.com/IaQhohC4yY
Can't see them sending too many Ukrainian women to compete against the Russia women for few men now that the western man has left.
Also, if you recall, flight KAL 007 was shot down by the Russians back in the 80s was over Sakhalin.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Lines_Flight_007
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 34: Todays update briefly focuses on the Chernihiv & Sumy Oblasts. Ukrainian forces have made important gains in Sumy; however, Russia is preparing a long-term defense in the Chernihiv Oblast. #UkraineRussianWar #Ukraine #RussianUkrainianWar pic.twitter.com/4M9CChpn1C
— Jomini of the West (@JominiW) March 30, 2022
Roll up for non-tweeters.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1509000160239575043.html
deddog said:I'll repeat what i tell folks very often. The US armed forces make complex shi$ look easy.Maroon Dawn said:
The biggest head scratcher in all of this is: where is the Russian Air Force? They've basically ceded the skies to Ukraine and their ground forces are being devastated because of it
The RuAF is flying relatively far away from their bases, in hostile air space.
For close support they have Su-25s and Su-34s.
The SU-25s cannot be refueled in the air. The SU-34s are too fast, and cannot loiter. i doubt they practice inflight refueling much, if at all.
Those that loiter have to deal with a tremendous amount of MANPADS . (BTW, i am very skeptical of any Uke AF ops, i dont think Uke air force pilots want to be flying in these conditions either).
Communication between ground troops and the RuAF will be tenuous at best.
All in all, it's a recipe for disaster.
i do think this would have been the case for any country not called the US of A. Our armed forces kick ass.
Overall, you're mostly correct. Just some things based on open source Intel that people that aren't in the biz of air power may find enlightening.
- The Russians are actually operating incredibly close to their bases. It's pretty standard for us to operate hours away from our bases. I had about a 2 hour transit each way to/from Syria on my last deployment. They are probably just out of reach of UKR ballistic missile ranges, which isn't far away at all from the UKR border.
- The Su-34 (and anything from the Flanker family) carries an incredible amount of gas, and they only carry it internally (no external fuel tanks). They carry more internally than any US/western fighter, and more total gas than just about anything but an F-15E with external fuel tanks.
- Most tactical fighter aircraft usually don't worry about MANPADS as they can just operate above the maximum altitude of these and use precision weapons from higher altitudes. Notable exceptions are the A-10 and Harrier (because I know GAC would have something to say about it).
So why are Russian 4++ gen aircraft getting taken out by MANPADS?
1.) Lack of precision weapon employment is forcing them into lower altitudes.
2.) The biggest reason is the RuAF has failed to destroy/degrade UKR's S-300 (SA-10) SAM systems. The S-300 is a bit long in the tooth but it is still a very capable weapons system. As a result, they are forced to operate low to either deny detection, or to minimize the range of the actual missiles. Russia has never doctrinally practiced SEAD (suppression of air defense) or DEAD (destruction of air defense) because the West doesn't rely on SAMs as a primary means of air defense versus aircraft. SEAD/DEAD is probably the most difficult part of gaining air superiority and the RuAF has no background in it.
In general I think you are also overselling how good we are at it as well. I think we are leaps and bounds better than RuAF, but don't sell the UKRAF short either. I have met a few of them and some of my co-workers were part of the Clear Sky 2018 exercise with them in Ukraine. Of the ones that I've met 1 is dead and the other is apparently doing regular interviews on CNN while sitting alert.
Figured that this went with out saying long before now.
Probably a good time to leave Russia if you haven’t already and you are a US Citizen. https://t.co/znB3cKePxC
— The Intel Hub (@The_IntelHub) March 30, 2022
ttu_85 said:Yes if the plant is tooled and ready and it maybe it is. And I doubt the 600's are $6K each given a Javelin is $157K . Similar warhead granted with the Javelin you have the launch tube and its a guided munition but so is the 600. Pure speculation from us all on this one.Rossticus said:ttu_85 said:A $20.3MM order from -U.S.-Special-Operations-Command Sounds a bit small and for specialized applications. Not sure how big of production run you get for $20MMUlysses90 said:The production contract was awarded din November and delivery is supposed to be complete by January 2023. They should be rolling off the production line right now.74OA said:IIRC, the 600 isn't in production. The administration can't provide what it doesn't possess.Ulysses90 said:That is exactly right. The Switchblade really needs to work with another observer platform to identify targets before launching the Switchblade. The Switchblade 600 only has a 40km range which means it can't loiter for very long. However, if another observer can identify and prioritize targets the Switchblade operators could do all sorts of interesting things like a coordinated simultaneous attack.aezmvp said:Specs on a 600 would allow them to get in range of most if not all Russian SPG and artillery positions. Would probably need some directional assist with some spotting or intel from other assets to reach the far end of their range however. (Direct line vs. search pattern range.)Captain Positivity said:
Artillery and MLRS is what they need to be taking out. The Ukes want Russia fighting at close range.
The only relevant Switchblade is the 600. It's like a loitering Javelin. The Switchblade 300 is like a loitering 40mm shaped charge grenade. The 300 is probably OK for killing the occupants of a soft skinned civilian vehicle but because it's a shaped charge anti-vehicle weapon it's not even that good if it hits the ground in the middle of a dismounted squad because the ground absorbs the majority of the blast.
I am worried that the Biden administration has promised "100 Switchblades" but I haven't seen it stated clearly that those are going to be Switchblade 600s vice the cheap 300s that would not be useful at all.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211104005095/en/AeroVironment-Awarded-20.3-Million-Switchblade-600-Tactical-Missile-Systems-Hardware-Contract-by-U.S.-Special-Operations-Command
With the 300 estimated at around $6,000 I'd assume you could get a run of several hundred 600s out of that.
A javelin missile is only about $75k. The rest of it is in the launcher, which is reusable and can be used on its own for thermal imaging (why it's so expensive). Either way, they're very different munitions. The javelin is using a rocket motor and has to be able to self guide in multiple attack modes, whereas the switchblade is really just a remote control airplane with a bomb. I don't think unit price would be over $50k, and that might be high. I think a few hundred in that production run is probably spot on.
They prefer the Stalinist term " Useful idiot " .ABATTBQ11 said:To the people of Russia and the brave men and women of the Russian armed forces—thank you for making the upcoming celebration of the defeat of Nazi ideology on May 9 even more relevant and special. I’ll be drinking in your honor! Good hunting! pic.twitter.com/WkKeE5UkGS
— Scott Ritter (@RealScottRitter) March 27, 2022Nazis have no rights. Neither do governments like Ukraine that facilitate neo-Nazi political parties and seek to bring their odious ideology into the mainstream of Ukrainian society. I am ashamed of every American who fails to see this. History is harshest on those who ignore it.
— Scott Ritter (@RealScottRitter) March 27, 2022The battle for Mariupol has lifted the veil of uncertainty of both the existence of a large, well-armed and mainstream militarized arm of Ukrainian neo-Nazi ideology, and the level to which this cancer has infected Ukraine as a whole. There is now no excuse to believe otherwise.
— Scott Ritter (@RealScottRitter) March 27, 2022
Yeah... This guy is a Russian shill, no doubt.
More Americans choosing to help.
Godspeed Ryan! One of our best on the ground! Let me know how I can help your small team. https://t.co/AMLFgjTGWU
— John Spencer (@SpencerGuard) March 29, 2022
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