For sure. And I think I misread the tweet as well. I thought they were claiming it was brand new footage from today, but he says from earlier as well.

Chechen commander who is a primary suspect in the assassination of Boris Nemstov. Rotten POS.

BREAKING: Pentagon says Russia is repositioning forces around Kyiv rather than withdrawing

— The RAGE X - Intel (@theragex) March 29, 2022

Edit

Rossticus said:

---

Watch Operational Command North's area closely in the next few days. If Russian re-deployments are as significant as they're being reported to be, the UAF will be tempted to release their reserve armored formations to try and turn a controlled RU retreat into a rout. 1/

— Patrick Fox (@RealCynicalFox) March 29, 2022

now semi-fluid lines and effect a major breakthrough - likely causing serious damage to or effecting the destruction of some RU units. This is a tempting target for the UAF, & if they have the forces available for such an action it's an opportunity they're unlikely to pass up.3/3

— Patrick Fox (@RealCynicalFox) March 29, 2022

---

Do we think it could be a trap?

To make it a trap they'd have to use weaponry that they've yet to employ, if you get my drift. Just my opinion.

Not necessarily. The closer to Belarus you get, the more potential for artillery and air support to wreak havoc.


But for that to happen it would require competency they haven't exhibited to date.

AgLA06 said:

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Not necessarily. The close to Belarus you get, the more potential got artillery and air support to wreak havoc.


But for that to happen it would require competency they haven't exhibited to date.

---

I was thinking about any withdrawal to the west/northwest. Chasing them east/northeast toward Belarus would, I agree, be a mistake.

aezmvp said:

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Captain Positivity said:

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Artillery and MLRS is what they need to be taking out. The Ukes want Russia fighting at close range.

---

Specs on a 600 would allow them to get in range of most if not all Russian SPG and artillery positions. Would probably need some directional assist with some spotting or intel from other assets to reach the far end of their range however. (Direct line vs. search pattern range.)

---

That is exactly right. The Switchblade really needs to work with another observer platform to identify targets before launching the Switchblade. The Switchblade 600 only has a 40km range which means it can't loiter for very long. However, if another observer can identify and prioritize targets the Switchblade operators could do all sorts of interesting things like a coordinated simultaneous attack.

The only relevant Switchblade is the 600. It's like a loitering Javelin. The Switchblade 300 is like a loitering 40mm shaped charge grenade. The 300 is probably OK for killing the occupants of a soft skinned civilian vehicle but because it's a shaped charge anti-vehicle weapon it's not even that good if it hits the ground in the middle of a dismounted squad because the ground absorbs the majority of the blast.

I am worried that the Biden administration has promised "100 Switchblades" but I haven't seen it stated clearly that those are going to be Switchblade 600s vice the cheap 300s that would not be useful at all.

#Russia seems to escalate tonight with heavy attacks reported in the #Kyiv oblast, on #Kharkiv and reports of missile launches from the territory of #Belarus

— marqs (@MarQs__) March 29, 2022

Ulysses90 said:

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aezmvp said:

---

Captain Positivity said:

---

Artillery and MLRS is what they need to be taking out. The Ukes want Russia fighting at close range.

---

Specs on a 600 would allow them to get in range of most if not all Russian SPG and artillery positions. Would probably need some directional assist with some spotting or intel from other assets to reach the far end of their range however. (Direct line vs. search pattern range.)

---

That is exactly right. The Switchblade really needs to work with another observer platform to identify targets before launching the Switchblade. The Switchblade 600 only has a 40km range which means it can't loiter for very long. However, if another observer can identify and prioritize targets the Switchblade operators could do all sorts of interesting things like a coordinated simultaneous attack.

The only relevant Switchblade is the 600. It's like a loitering Javelin. The Switchblade 300 is like a loitering 40mm shaped charge grenade. The 300 is probably OK for killing the occupants of a soft skinned civilian vehicle but because it's a shaped charge anti-vehicle weapon it's not even that good if it hits the ground in the middle of a dismounted squad because the ground absorbs the majority of the blast.

I am worried that the Biden administration has promised "100 Switchblades" but I haven't seen it stated clearly that those are going to be Switchblade 600s vice the cheap 300s that would not be useful at all.

---

Parked helos

300s could still be useful for harassing logistics trains. An interesting point I picked up a while back is that some of Russia's unarmored platforms, inclusive of certain artillery (don't recall which) actually have been confirmed as having wood reinforced chassis (insane in modern times, I know). 300s could be useful in destroying those as well, for obvious reasons.

No Spin Ag said:

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Rossticus said:

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Long thread but good.

If the West deescalates and Putin stays in power, he will become much stronger and Russia will become more like North Korea. You shouldn't delude yourself, there's no way back to February 23. As a result of "deescalation", Russia won't return to the status quo pic.twitter.com/jQa4H7GFmu

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) March 28, 2022

Unroll for non-Tweeters: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1508576678552825856.html

---

Long, but very good read.

---

That guy has put a bunch of those out and they are all really good reads but extremely long for Twitter.

Maroon Dawn said:

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The biggest head scratcher in all of this is: where is the Russian Air Force? They've basically ceded the skies to Ukraine and their ground forces are being devastated because of it

---

Saving for something else?????

ABATTBQ11 said:

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To the people of Russia and the brave men and women of the Russian armed forces—thank you for making the upcoming celebration of the defeat of Nazi ideology on May 9 even more relevant and special. I’ll be drinking in your honor! Good hunting! pic.twitter.com/WkKeE5UkGS

— Scott Ritter (@RealScottRitter) March 27, 2022

Nazis have no rights. Neither do governments like Ukraine that facilitate neo-Nazi political parties and seek to bring their odious ideology into the mainstream of Ukrainian society. I am ashamed of every American who fails to see this. History is harshest on those who ignore it.

— Scott Ritter (@RealScottRitter) March 27, 2022

The battle for Mariupol has lifted the veil of uncertainty of both the existence of a large, well-armed and mainstream militarized arm of Ukrainian neo-Nazi ideology, and the level to which this cancer has infected Ukraine as a whole. There is now no excuse to believe otherwise.

— Scott Ritter (@RealScottRitter) March 27, 2022

Yeah... This guy is a Russian shill, no doubt.

---

In case the name Scott Ritter doesn't ring a bell, here's some historical perspective.

http://www.noethics.net/News/index.php?view=article&id=670:is-ex-un-weapons-inspector-scott-ritter-a-disgusting-pervert-damn-betcha-he-is&tmpl=component&layout=default&option=com_content&Itemid=58

Quote:

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On Jan. 14, 2010, Scott Ritter was arrested in Barrett Township in the Poconos in upstate New York and charged with numerous allegations of sexual misconduct involving minors via his use of the Internet.

The Barrett Township police claim that Scott Ritter masturbated and ejaculated in full view of a Web camera for a detective he believed was a 15-year-old girl named Emily. (The Morning Call)

The Barrett Township detective described himself as a 15-year-old female from the Poconos. Shortly after the conversation began, Ritter allegedly provided a link to his web camera and displayed his face and upper body.

"A short time later, he] adjusted the camera and focused on his ***** area, where he began to masturbate," the affidavit said.

The affidavit said Ritter asked the girl again how old she was, and when he was advised for a second time she was 15 years old he turned off the camera and stated he did not want to get in trouble. The detective then instant-messaged back, "I guess u turned it off np." He replied, "You to see it finish," and turned the camera back and ejaculated, the affidavit says. (The Morning Call)

---

Rossticus said:

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#Russia seems to escalate tonight with heavy attacks reported in the #Kyiv oblast, on #Kharkiv and reports of missile launches from the territory of #Belarus

— marqs (@MarQs__) March 29, 2022

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I guess this is the russians plan for continuing peace talks. Leave the area but level the city. **** them.

JFABNRGR said:

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Rossticus said:

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#Russia seems to escalate tonight with heavy attacks reported in the #Kyiv oblast, on #Kharkiv and reports of missile launches from the territory of #Belarus

— marqs (@MarQs__) March 29, 2022

---

I guess this is the russians plan for continuing peace talks. Leave the area but level the city. **** them.

---

Or, like they announced, they have begun stage II of their invasion.

From like day 3, Rubio was tweeting that Russia was going to surround and conduct a medieval siege on cities...Mariupol was the first domino to fall. Expect Kharkov and kiev to follow.

The russians have already gotten sufficient numbers to leave in the humanitarian corridors. The goal was to allow defectors to flee and it's worked. Now the only active resistance are the ones supremely willing to die, rather than swollen numbers of lukewarm resistance guys.

Salute CornPops Message said:

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Maroon Dawn said:

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The biggest head scratcher in all of this is: where is the Russian Air Force? They've basically ceded the skies to Ukraine and their ground forces are being devastated because of it

---

Saving for something else?????

---

2 major problems.

1st) Ukes continue to have AD assets outside of MANPADs but also a large number of those in certain areas. It is likely thag the Russians suffered notable if not significant losses in the 1st 2 weeks. That hampers areas of operation to support offensives but we do know they fly significantly more sorties in Khakriv and Chernkhiv at the far end of the Uke supply line.

2nd) Russia was cut off from many aerospace manufacturers after 2014. This has caused significant problems getting spare parts which was a long standing issue prior to this and was a stated cause that led to pilots not having significant non simulator training time. Also it is my understanding that active missions create a huge need for parts and repairs which has not been a strong point so far. I'm unsure how much would have been stockpiled in advance. In addition they moved a lot of aircraft a long way for this which means localized replacement parts would have had to have been packed on trains and sent 1000s of km on an already taxed rail network. It is hard to prioritize all the needs of an active force down rail.

This would lead to significant challenges in maintaining an active air campaign for weeks or months. That's my read. Risk adverse on active equipment due to losses and shortages and having to engage without stand off weapons means little air support.

The Debt said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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Rossticus said:

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#Russia seems to escalate tonight with heavy attacks reported in the #Kyiv oblast, on #Kharkiv and reports of missile launches from the territory of #Belarus

— marqs (@MarQs__) March 29, 2022

---

I guess this is the russians plan for continuing peace talks. Leave the area but level the city. **** them.

---

Or, like they announced, they have begun stage II of their invasion.

From like day 3, Rubio was tweeting that Russia was going to surround and conduct a medieval siege on cities...Mariupol was the first domino to fall. Expect Kharkov and kiev to follow.

The russians have already gotten sufficient numbers to leave in the humanitarian corridors. The goal was to allow defectors to flee and it's worked. Now the only active resistance are the ones supremely willing to die, rather than swollen numbers of lukewarm resistance guys.

---

This is overstating Russian strength in Kharkiv and Kyiv. They both have large supply corridors open amd are even conducting counterattacks. We will see how much Russia throws from the next draft class and veteran call up they are doing. And what kit they are sending those guys with.

Ulysses90 said:

---

aezmvp said:

---

Captain Positivity said:

---

Artillery and MLRS is what they need to be taking out. The Ukes want Russia fighting at close range.

---

Specs on a 600 would allow them to get in range of most if not all Russian SPG and artillery positions. Would probably need some directional assist with some spotting or intel from other assets to reach the far end of their range however. (Direct line vs. search pattern range.)

---

That is exactly right. The Switchblade really needs to work with another observer platform to identify targets before launching the Switchblade. The Switchblade 600 only has a 40km range which means it can't loiter for very long. However, if another observer can identify and prioritize targets the Switchblade operators could do all sorts of interesting things like a coordinated simultaneous attack.

The only relevant Switchblade is the 600. It's like a loitering Javelin. The Switchblade 300 is like a loitering 40mm shaped charge grenade. The 300 is probably OK for killing the occupants of a soft skinned civilian vehicle but because it's a shaped charge anti-vehicle weapon it's not even that good if it hits the ground in the middle of a dismounted squad because the ground absorbs the majority of the blast.

I am worried that the Biden administration has promised "100 Switchblades" but I haven't seen it stated clearly that those are going to be Switchblade 600s vice the cheap 300s that would not be useful at all.

---

IIRC, the 600 isn't in production.The administration can't provide what it doesn't possess.

aezmvp said:

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The Debt said:

---

JFABNRGR said:

---

Rossticus said:

---

#Russia seems to escalate tonight with heavy attacks reported in the #Kyiv oblast, on #Kharkiv and reports of missile launches from the territory of #Belarus

— marqs (@MarQs__) March 29, 2022

---

I guess this is the russians plan for continuing peace talks. Leave the area but level the city. **** them.

---

Or, like they announced, they have begun stage II of their invasion.

From like day 3, Rubio was tweeting that Russia was going to surround and conduct a medieval siege on cities...Mariupol was the first domino to fall. Expect Kharkov and kiev to follow.

The russians have already gotten sufficient numbers to leave in the humanitarian corridors. The goal was to allow defectors to flee and it's worked. Now the only active resistance are the ones supremely willing to die, rather than swollen numbers of lukewarm resistance guys.

---

This is overstating Russian strength in Kharkiv and Kyiv. They both have large supply corridors open amd are even conducting counterattacks. We will see how much Russia throws from the next draft class and veteran call up they are doing. And what kit they are sending those guys with.

---

Not to mention tons of civilians still in Kyiv. Russians aren't anywhere close to a siege or encirclement and are currently losing ground amidst their re-deployment. Kyiv is exponentially more fortified than Mariupol and they're still trying to finish cleaning up there. Not worried about Kyiv unless they employ chemical attacks.

Most of those fleeing are women and children!

Htownag11 said:

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Rossticus said:

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Watch Operational Command North's area closely in the next few days. If Russian re-deployments are as significant as they're being reported to be, the UAF will be tempted to release their reserve armored formations to try and turn a controlled RU retreat into a rout. 1/

— Patrick Fox (@RealCynicalFox) March 29, 2022

now semi-fluid lines and effect a major breakthrough - likely causing serious damage to or effecting the destruction of some RU units. This is a tempting target for the UAF, & if they have the forces available for such an action it's an opportunity they're unlikely to pass up.3/3

— Patrick Fox (@RealCynicalFox) March 29, 2022

---

Do we think it could be a trap?

---

With the amount of eyes we have on this area, I doubt it. You would need significant forces in hiding to pull it off and I just don't see how they would not have been found yet if that were the case. With multi spectrum analysis from satellites we know is being looked at every second of the day, I would think we would sniff it out. The days of the surprise of something like Operation Autumn Mist (Battle of the Bulge) are largely over I think for the United States. You can feint and you can misdirect, like the naval landing forces, but you can't hide numbers as well anymore.

If Russia does pull back after all, it could be real ugly for them if the Ukes capitalize. I have read it elsewhere from experienced generals that absolutely nothing is harder to keep together and functional than a fighting retreat. There is such a precarious edge between an organized retreat and a rout/massacre.

It would be a gamble of course, but sometimes you just have to roll the dice for a possible huge gain. Like the Battle of the Marne. If I remember right, Joffre had to make a snap decision that could save or doom Paris based off a single aeroplane recon sighting. He rolled the dice and attacked a gap in the German lines that he had no way of know was truly there or not. He was proven right and rolled the Germans back in something called the Great Retreat. The war changed forever at that point.

If the Ukes want to "win" militarily, then they will have to shoot their shot somewhere...

I think your assessment is accurate.

LOL all the Ivans saying this war has gone exactly to Russia's plans. SMH

74OA said:

---

Ulysses90 said:

---

aezmvp said:

---

Captain Positivity said:

---

Artillery and MLRS is what they need to be taking out. The Ukes want Russia fighting at close range.

---

Specs on a 600 would allow them to get in range of most if not all Russian SPG and artillery positions. Would probably need some directional assist with some spotting or intel from other assets to reach the far end of their range however. (Direct line vs. search pattern range.)

---

That is exactly right. The Switchblade really needs to work with another observer platform to identify targets before launching the Switchblade. The Switchblade 600 only has a 40km range which means it can't loiter for very long. However, if another observer can identify and prioritize targets the Switchblade operators could do all sorts of interesting things like a coordinated simultaneous attack.

The only relevant Switchblade is the 600. It's like a loitering Javelin. The Switchblade 300 is like a loitering 40mm shaped charge grenade. The 300 is probably OK for killing the occupants of a soft skinned civilian vehicle but because it's a shaped charge anti-vehicle weapon it's not even that good if it hits the ground in the middle of a dismounted squad because the ground absorbs the majority of the blast.

I am worried that the Biden administration has promised "100 Switchblades" but I haven't seen it stated clearly that those are going to be Switchblade 600s vice the cheap 300s that would not be useful at all.

---

IIRC, the 600 isn't in production. The administration can't provide what it doesn't possess.

---

The production contract was awarded din November and delivery is supposed to be complete by January 2023. They should be rolling off the production line right now.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211104005095/en/AeroVironment-Awarded-20.3-Million-Switchblade-600-Tactical-Missile-Systems-Hardware-Contract-by-U.S.-Special-Operations-Command

Initiation of proof of concept phase any day now.

Ulysses90 said:

---

74OA said:

---

Ulysses90 said:

---

aezmvp said:

---

Captain Positivity said:

---

Artillery and MLRS is what they need to be taking out. The Ukes want Russia fighting at close range.

---

Specs on a 600 would allow them to get in range of most if not all Russian SPG and artillery positions. Would probably need some directional assist with some spotting or intel from other assets to reach the far end of their range however. (Direct line vs. search pattern range.)

---

That is exactly right. The Switchblade really needs to work with another observer platform to identify targets before launching the Switchblade. The Switchblade 600 only has a 40km range which means it can't loiter for very long. However, if another observer can identify and prioritize targets the Switchblade operators could do all sorts of interesting things like a coordinated simultaneous attack.

The only relevant Switchblade is the 600. It's like a loitering Javelin. The Switchblade 300 is like a loitering 40mm shaped charge grenade. The 300 is probably OK for killing the occupants of a soft skinned civilian vehicle but because it's a shaped charge anti-vehicle weapon it's not even that good if it hits the ground in the middle of a dismounted squad because the ground absorbs the majority of the blast.

I am worried that the Biden administration has promised "100 Switchblades" but I haven't seen it stated clearly that those are going to be Switchblade 600s vice the cheap 300s that would not be useful at all.

---

IIRC, the 600 isn't in production. The administration can't provide what it doesn't possess.

---

The production contract was awarded din November and delivery is supposed to be complete by January 2023. They should be rolling off the production line right now.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211104005095/en/AeroVironment-Awarded-20.3-Million-Switchblade-600-Tactical-Missile-Systems-Hardware-Contract-by-U.S.-Special-Operations-Command

---

So in all likelihood we have at most a handful of pre-production certification items right now. I can see why the administration would provide the 300 in the meantime.

Missed that 126th lost a BTG reportedly at Voznesensk, thanks @CascadiaBorn

— Henry Schlottman (@HN_Schlottman) March 29, 2022

I am already seeing people going back to their homes in #Kharkiv. And there are still experts pushing the narrative of “the majority won’t come back”

— Anastasiia Lapatina (@lapatina_) March 29, 2022