Russia is going to claim whatever they capture in the East was the plan all along. They'll just memory hole all the talk about disarming and "de-nazifying" the whole country. Taking another chunk of Eastern Ukraine doesn't help Russia. That just leaves an even more Western leaning Ukraine behind.

aggiehawg said:

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SupaManu said:

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AgLA06 said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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I am of the belief that there is still a cauldron about to doom the Ukrainian forces in the south and east. Which is what I've believed the whole time.

Initially I thought that they would encircle Kiev but it appears that the tenacious defense prevented it or it was a feint. Probably some combination of both.

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Then someone doesn't understand the definition of a military feint. Getting your ass kicked and taking the losses they did doesn't align with the definition of a feint. No intelligent person can look at this and say, "yep, that was just troop movements disguised as an assault on Kiev".

They had every intention of walking down main street in days just like we did in Iraq. Then reality happened.

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100% wasn't a feint, that's straight up propaganda

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Agree. Take the capitol and the government ceases to function.

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They said on day one that they wanted to kill Zelensky. That was the plan. Take Kiev and install a new president. Russia got their asses kicked instead and had to settle for a smaller part. In fact, they might have to move more troops to the SE or risk losing everything.

SupaManu said:

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AgLA06 said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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I am of the belief that there is still a cauldron about to doom the Ukrainian forces in the south and east. Which is what I've believed the whole time.

Initially I thought that they would encircle Kiev but it appears that the tenacious defense prevented it or it was a feint. Probably some combination of both.

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Then someone doesn't understand the definition of a military feint. Getting your ass kicked and taking the losses they did doesn't align with the definition of a feint. No intelligent person can look at this and say, "yep, that was just troop movements disguised as an assault on Kiev".

They had every intention of walking down main street in days just like we did in Iraq. Then reality happened.

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100% wasn't a feint, that's straight up propaganda

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Russia thought their assassination teams and double agents would topple the government at the outset. The double agents double crossed the Russians and outed the assassins and then the Russians brigades headed to the capitol stalled.

They'll never admit to the true number, but no one can argue that it isn't high. Over a week ago NATO estimates were 7k KIA minimum and up to 15k. Russia has had roughly 300 KIA per day, putting them at about 10k minimum today and likely 12k-14k. Some even put it above 15k.

Quote:

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Sean Maloney is a professor of military history at the Royal Military College who served as the Canadian army's historian for the conflict in Afghanistan. He told CBC that, based on his knowledge of Russia's military and sources inside of Belarus and Russia, the high-end NATO estimate of Russian casualties is likely accurate.

"I am confident, with the sources that I have, that the number of Russians killed in action is above 15,000," Maloney said.

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Calling this anything other than a massive failure is just post hoc wishful thinking.

ETA You can tell this wasn't the plan because Russia has reportedly gone soft on key demands, which is a sign they believe they're no longer negotiating from a position of strength. They are willing to make concessions because they know they can't achieve their original goals, they're bleeding profusely, and a quicker end to the conflict while saving some face is their best possible outcome now.

Interesting

The head of Chechnya republic Kadyrov desperately wants people to think he is fighting in #Ukraine. First, he lied about being near #Kyiv when he was seen in Chechnya. Now he says is in Mariupol and posts this picture, not realizing, but there are no Rosneft stations in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/8HaaePM9Vx

— Anonymous Operations (@AnonOpsSE) March 29, 2022

Russia's forces suffered from the problem that any authoritarian regime does: news and data traveling up the chain of command is always good news colored with rosy optimism. Nobody wants to risk reporting reality, and the leadership won't accept it in any event. Putin and his army went to war with the military they were promised they had and they greatly overestimated its capabilities because the officers from top to bottom feared to report reality to leadership.

They may have suspected such, having come up through that same system, but at worst they were aware that Ukrainians theoretically faced the same corruption and unpreparedness issues, and thru believed that they could bluff and intimidate Ukraine into a rapid capitulation.

Ukraine called the bluff and with a few early successes, rapidly won the morale battle and threw the attack plan any time table into chaos.

Now, instead of regime change and creating a ln occupied puppet state, they are having to re-deploy and take what they can get before lines stabilize too much and options for settlement become limited.

I can confirm that Alpha 1, a Ukrainian Foreign Legion team of multinational special operations soldiers, including American volunteers, took part in the liberation of Irpin. pic.twitter.com/IIUrwiWhIu

— Nolan Peterson (@nolanwpeterson) March 29, 2022

Why haven't the Ukes taken out the Crimean bridge?
Is it lack of means or is this not a strategic target?

Russia can't commit too many more of its forces without waiting for extensive mobilization because they are deathly afraid or losing internal control and of other foreign territorial threats. They really do fear one of the Stans or China or even NATO coming at them, so they can't overcommit their available first line forces.

AgLA06 said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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aggiehawg said:

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First signs that some Russian troops are indeed retreating from the Kyiv direction. Large numbers of BMDs with Russian and VDV flags were spotted today on their way from the Ukrainian border to Belarus' Rechitsa and Gomel where they were loaded onto railway platforms. pic.twitter.com/6B5qTsgFRq

— Tadeusz Giczan 🇺🇦 (@TadeuszGiczan) March 29, 2022

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It wouldn't surprise me to see these troops show up somewhere on the Donbas front.

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They are definitely heading to support taking and holding the eastern land bridge (plan D). UKR still has a ton of work cut out and there is a good chance fresh reinforcing units from within russia reach these areas before the units NW & NE of Kviv can be reallocated.

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To wit-

1/ Big Arrow War—a primer. For all those scratching their heads in confusion, or dusting off their dress uniforms for the Ukrainian victory parade in Kiev, over the news about Russia’s “strategic shift”, you might want to re-familiarize yourself with basic military concepts.

— Scott Ritter (@RealScottRitter) March 29, 2022

Not sure I agree with his statement of victory just yet, but a good overview that puts the different fronts in perspective relative to each other. Be sure to click through to read the whole thread.

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That's almost propaganda. No way you commit the amount of forces to get chewed up they did from the north for a feint. Give me a break.

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Not almost propaganda. It is propaganda. Scott Ritter has had a huge axe to grind with "the west" since the Saddam WMD stuff went down and in recent years has started working for Russia Today.

It is very possible that Russia has failed spectacularly in their effort to storm Kyiv and to still think they'll succeed in the east of Ukraine. But folks like Ritter who are trying really hard to explain away Kyiv so far..."doth protest too much."

Ukrainian forces are digging out those stuck Russian T-80U tanks.https://t.co/bgaFeXaqHB pic.twitter.com/ME8TeQVYSY

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 29, 2022

Rebel E will never acknowledge that. It will always be, "a hack," or, "not official," despite it aligning with pretty much all third party estimates at the time. Ukraine's numbers are certainly optimistic, but that doesn't mean Russia's losses aren't extraordinarily high. Their pull back is nothing short of a strategic withdrawal.

The supposedly elite Russian 4th Guards Tank Division is going to have to be totally reconstituted after this war. Dozens of tanks lost along with many other armored vehicles and supply trucks. Hundreds of casualties. Total disaster.

— Woofers (@NotWoofers) March 29, 2022

To the people of Russia and the brave men and women of the Russian armed forces—thank you for making the upcoming celebration of the defeat of Nazi ideology on May 9 even more relevant and special. I’ll be drinking in your honor! Good hunting! pic.twitter.com/WkKeE5UkGS

— Scott Ritter (@RealScottRitter) March 27, 2022

Nazis have no rights. Neither do governments like Ukraine that facilitate neo-Nazi political parties and seek to bring their odious ideology into the mainstream of Ukrainian society. I am ashamed of every American who fails to see this. History is harshest on those who ignore it.

— Scott Ritter (@RealScottRitter) March 27, 2022

The battle for Mariupol has lifted the veil of uncertainty of both the existence of a large, well-armed and mainstream militarized arm of Ukrainian neo-Nazi ideology, and the level to which this cancer has infected Ukraine as a whole. There is now no excuse to believe otherwise.

— Scott Ritter (@RealScottRitter) March 27, 2022

Yeah... This guy is a Russian shill, no doubt.

Rossticus said:

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Macron and Putin are on the phone again.

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 29, 2022

Putin just told Macron he wants Mariupol to surrender. Russian diplomacy in action.

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) March 29, 2022

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So Mariupol isn't lost just yet.

Rossticus said:

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The supposedly elite Russian 4th Guards Tank Division is going to have to be totally reconstituted after this war. Dozens of tanks lost along with many other armored vehicles and supply trucks. Hundreds of casualties. Total disaster.

— Woofers (@NotWoofers) March 29, 2022

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For everyone else units with the Guards title are generally recognized as the best of their military and it is usually applied after a significant/notable success. Units generally get best troops, equipment and have most training time.

Rossticus said:

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RIA Novosti just published this a few minutes ago.

No further details at this time but it follows an alleged Russian cyberattack on Ukrtelecom, which resulted in a 15 hour outage of Ukraine's key Internet and phone service provider pic.twitter.com/dkhs5PsRBT

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) March 29, 2022

With more details published in Russian media, it appears as if the MFA is linking Ukrainian volunteer hackers which are aided by the West, to a "cyber-war" on Russia. Russia is also sounding the alarm about a threat of "cyber-terrorism" emanating from Ukraine. Alarming rhetoric.

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) March 29, 2022

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Not at a place where I can find the tweets or articles, but somebody supposedly (posted on ANONNEWS twitter) DELETATED all the Civil Aviation Administration files AND backups. Basically their aviation administration is working from paper with no hopes of restoring.

actually found it

Powerful cyber attack on Russia’s Civil Aviation Authority servers: no more data nor back-up.
Tango Down: https://t.co/oesHmpe7LW <-- (งツ)วhttps://t.co/oOxqpWmcNz

— Anonymous (@YourAnonNews) March 29, 2022