***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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RebelE Infantry
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In reply to aezmvp • 11:24a, 3/29/22
AG
aezmvp said:
RebelE Infantry said:
GarryowenAg said:


I find this hard to believe since there are tons of reserve forces not yet committed. I wish they provided additional details or clarity.


Ya I don't believe this at all. They invaded with something less than 200k troops. There's no way that they constitute 70% of the entire military.
Yeah that doesn't seem to add up. If they said functional BTG maybe I could believe that number?


Maybe. There's definitely a lot of context missing, as the quote taken at face value makes this general look like a total doofus.
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Not a Bot
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 11:25a, 3/29/22
AG
I think they are referring to their available and trained BTGs. Shoigu claimed Russia's military had 170 BTGs as of December 2021. Estimates from various sources put Russia's BTG commitment in Ukraine at well over 100, with several of them now completely wiped out and many more severely debilitated.
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aezmvp
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In reply to Not a Bot • 11:25a, 3/29/22
Captain Positivity said:
Artillery and MLRS is what they need to be taking out. The Ukes want Russia fighting at close range.
Specs on a 600 would allow them to get in range of most if not all Russian SPG and artillery positions. Would probably need some directional assist with some spotting or intel from other assets to reach the far end of their range however. (Direct line vs. search pattern range.)
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to aezmvp • 11:28a, 3/29/22
AG
aezmvp said:
txags92 said:
aezmvp said:
No Spin Ag said:
MeatDr said:


Anyone think these will be game changers when they get in the hands of the Ukes?
600 series maybe.
Why state this? Why give that info out there so the Russians know they can keep getting their licks in without worrying about these?
No I'm saying that I don't think the 300 series changes reality on the ground. The explosive charge can disable a truck or a piece of towed artillery or a towed heavy mortar but it's not going to change things on the ground. The 600 can take out MBT, AFV/IFV/APC, and SPG.
I think this is the one weapon system that could get through to the Mariupol AO and be used very effectively. 600 much better but even the 300 would be a welcome addition for Azov. The 300 would certainly be easier to sneak down there but then again you also have to launch much closer and your loiter time is much less.

I have read two different capabilities on these things with one version being about half or less than the other regarding range and loiter time.
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RebelE Infantry
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In reply to Not a Bot • 11:30a, 3/29/22
AG
That would make more sense, as I saw somewhere that Russia committed around 120 BTGs at the start.
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AgLA06
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In reply to aezmvp • 11:30a, 3/29/22
AG
aezmvp said:
No Spin Ag said:
MeatDr said:


Anyone think these will be game changers when they get in the hands of the Ukes?
600 series maybe.
Any idea why they only have the 300 series (6 mile range, 6lbs, 40mm grenade armaments) and 600 series (50 mile range, 50lbs, javelin warhead). Seems like they need something in between that is more like 25lbs, 20 miles, javelin warhead to be more widely distributed.

A 600 series almost needs to be mounted on armored vehicles like Humvees because of the weight. something in-between like a 400 series could be utilized in packs allowing recon units to engage entrenched positions or armor once fixed.
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aezmvp
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 11:32a, 3/29/22
JFABNRGR said:
aezmvp said:
txags92 said:
aezmvp said:
No Spin Ag said:
MeatDr said:


Anyone think these will be game changers when they get in the hands of the Ukes?
600 series maybe.
Why state this? Why give that info out there so the Russians know they can keep getting their licks in without worrying about these?
No I'm saying that I don't think the 300 series changes reality on the ground. The explosive charge can disable a truck or a piece of towed artillery or a towed heavy mortar but it's not going to change things on the ground. The 600 can take out MBT, AFV/IFV/APC, and SPG.
I think this is the one weapon system that could get through to the Mariupol AO and be used very effectively. 600 much better but even the 300 would be a welcome addition for Azov. The 300 would certainly be easier to sneak down there but then again you also have to launch much closer and your loiter time is much less.

I have read two different capabilities on these things with one version being about half or less than the other regarding range and loiter time.
300 - 15 min endurance with 10 km range and approximately a claymore worth of explosives
600 - 40+ min endurance with 40 km range and functions like a javelin (according to reports)
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 11:33a, 3/29/22
AG
RebelE Infantry said:
aggiehawg said:


It wouldn't surprise me to see these troops show up somewhere on the Donbas front.
They are definitely heading to support taking and holding the eastern land bridge (plan D). UKR still has a ton of work cut out and there is a good chance fresh reinforcing units from within russia reach these areas before the units NW & NE of Kviv can be reallocated.
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aezmvp
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In reply to AgLA06 • 11:34a, 3/29/22
AgLA06 said:
aezmvp said:
No Spin Ag said:
MeatDr said:


Anyone think these will be game changers when they get in the hands of the Ukes?
600 series maybe.
Any idea why they only have the 300 series (6 mile range, 6lbs, 40mm grenade armaments) and 600 series (50 mile range, 50lbs, javelin warhead). Seems like they need something in between that is more like 25lbs, 20 miles, javelin warhead to be more widely distributed.

A 600 series almost needs to be mounted on armored vehicles like Humvees because of the weight. something in-between like a 400 series could be utilized in packs allowing recon units to engage entrenched positions or armor once fixed.
They don't have an in between yet and the 600 was in proving stages with SOCOM. I'm betting they sent some but no proof, just a guess. I would if I was that company/the Pentagon. No better place to test it.
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Not a Bot
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11:38a, 3/29/22
AG
Just a few spitball thoughts from my own brain:

Russia's military had roughly 96 BTGs as of 2016, expanding to 170 by 2021. That's close to doubling the number of BTGs in a short timeframe.

Given the state of their economy and corruption/ineptitude in manufacturing and military procurement, along with a lack of NCOs, I think it's a safe bet a lot of these new BTGs consisted of old equipment and very green commanders and soldiers. It explains a lot of what we are seeing on the ground.
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RebelE Infantry
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 11:43a, 3/29/22
AG
JFABNRGR said:
RebelE Infantry said:
aggiehawg said:


It wouldn't surprise me to see these troops show up somewhere on the Donbas front.
They are definitely heading to support taking and holding the eastern land bridge (plan D). UKR still has a ton of work cut out and there is a good chance fresh reinforcing units from within russia reach these areas before the units NW & NE of Kviv can be reallocated.


To wit-



Not sure I agree with his statement of victory just yet, but a good overview that puts the different fronts in perspective relative to each other. Be sure to click through to read the whole thread.
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AgLA06
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In reply to Not a Bot • 11:44a, 3/29/22
AG
Captain Positivity said:
Just a few spitball thoughts from my own brain:

Russia's military had roughly 96 BTGs as of 2016, expanding to 170 by 2021. That's close to doubling the number of BTGs in a short timeframe.

Given the state of their economy and corruption/ineptitude in manufacturing and military procurement, along with a lack of NCOs, I think it's a safe bet a lot of these new BTGs consisted of old equipment and very green commanders and soldiers. It explains a lot of what we are seeing on the ground.
Agreed.

Without calling up more conscripts with no little to no training or equipment, I'm guessing their operational force is closer to 120 BTGs like initially reported at the start of the invasion. Remember, they have BTGs scattered elsewhere. We've already see the pulling units from Azerbaijan to use as reinforcements in UK. If they had operational units in reserve, they wouldn't be doing this.

This is really turning out to be a intelligence coup for Europe and the US. They may only have half the strength we thought they had and armor and ballistic capabilities much reduced than assumed.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to aezmvp • 11:45a, 3/29/22
AG
aezmvp said:
JFABNRGR said:
aezmvp said:
txags92 said:
aezmvp said:
No Spin Ag said:
MeatDr said:


Anyone think these will be game changers when they get in the hands of the Ukes?
600 series maybe.
Why state this? Why give that info out there so the Russians know they can keep getting their licks in without worrying about these?
No I'm saying that I don't think the 300 series changes reality on the ground. The explosive charge can disable a truck or a piece of towed artillery or a towed heavy mortar but it's not going to change things on the ground. The 600 can take out MBT, AFV/IFV/APC, and SPG.
I think this is the one weapon system that could get through to the Mariupol AO and be used very effectively. 600 much better but even the 300 would be a welcome addition for Azov. The 300 would certainly be easier to sneak down there but then again you also have to launch much closer and your loiter time is much less.

I have read two different capabilities on these things with one version being about half or less than the other regarding range and loiter time.
300 - 15 min endurance with 10 km range and approximately a claymore worth of explosives
600 - 40+ min endurance with 40 km range and functions like a javelin (according to reports)
the other description I saw gave a capability of like 90KM for the 600 in direct attack mode (meaning no loitering). If this is the case its a huge advantage. If you know of enemy targets within this block and your say 60KM away I would think you still have a couple of minutes to loiter for specific targeting.

Of course I can't find it now and its possible I was reading another type/model.
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MeatDr
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 11:46a, 3/29/22
AG
JFABNRGR said:
RebelE Infantry said:
aggiehawg said:


It wouldn't surprise me to see these troops show up somewhere on the Donbas front.
They are definitely heading to support taking and holding the eastern land bridge (plan D). UKR still has a ton of work cut out and there is a good chance fresh reinforcing units from within russia reach these areas before the units NW & NE of Kviv can be reallocated.


US officials think the same. I wonder what the "Extremely Concerning Allegations" are.
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CondensedFogAggie
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11:47a, 3/29/22

"Russians, welcome to the Ukraine!"

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GarryowenAg
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In reply to AgLA06 • 11:48a, 3/29/22
AG
AgLA06 said:
Captain Positivity said:
Just a few spitball thoughts from my own brain:

Russia's military had roughly 96 BTGs as of 2016, expanding to 170 by 2021. That's close to doubling the number of BTGs in a short timeframe.

Given the state of their economy and corruption/ineptitude in manufacturing and military procurement, along with a lack of NCOs, I think it's a safe bet a lot of these new BTGs consisted of old equipment and very green commanders and soldiers. It explains a lot of what we are seeing on the ground.
Agreed.

Without calling up more conscripts with no little to no training or equipment, I'm guessing their operational force is closer to 120 BTGs like initially reported at the start of the invasion. Remember, they have BTGs scattered elsewhere. We've already see the pulling units from Azerbaijan to use as reinforcements in UK. If they had operational units in reserve, they wouldn't be doing this.

This is really turning out to be a intelligence coup for Europe and the US. They may only have half the strength we thought they had and armor and ballistic capabilities much reduced than assumed.
Those are great points. Which leads me to believe we're witnessing potential tactical withdrawals to reinforce other sectors, or provide re-org for pushes into other regions. We're far from over though.
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No Spin Ag
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In reply to aezmvp • 11:48a, 3/29/22
aezmvp said:
txags92 said:
aezmvp said:
No Spin Ag said:
MeatDr said:


Anyone think these will be game changers when they get in the hands of the Ukes?
600 series maybe.
Why state this? Why give that info out there so the Russians know they can keep getting their licks in without worrying about these?
No I'm saying that I don't think the 300 series changes reality on the ground. The explosive charge can disable a truck or a piece of towed artillery or a towed heavy mortar but it's not going to change things on the ground. The 600 can take out MBT, AFV/IFV/APC, and SPG.


Thanks for sharing this info. It's impressive what we have in our arsenal.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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AgLA06
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 11:49a, 3/29/22
AG
RebelE Infantry said:
JFABNRGR said:
RebelE Infantry said:
aggiehawg said:


It wouldn't surprise me to see these troops show up somewhere on the Donbas front.
They are definitely heading to support taking and holding the eastern land bridge (plan D). UKR still has a ton of work cut out and there is a good chance fresh reinforcing units from within russia reach these areas before the units NW & NE of Kviv can be reallocated.


To wit-



Not sure I agree with his statement of victory just yet, but a good overview that puts the different fronts in perspective relative to each other. Be sure to click through to read the whole thread.
That's almost propaganda. No way you commit the amount of forces to get chewed up they did from the north for a feint. Give me a break.

No doubt it had the same effect of forcing Ukraine to keep most troops in the north, south, and in reserve in the west, but not because of some amazing strategy. Only a fool admits they lost 2000 pieces of armor and 20K men for a feint. And you sure as hell don't send parade dress for a feint mission that isn't supposed to happen.

They got stonewalled and are trying to save face based on what they should have done (if they weren't trying to take all of Ukraine from the beginning). And they were.
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Not a Bot
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 11:49a, 3/29/22
AG
This wasn't likely their strategy all along. I think that gives them too much credit. They've lost a ton of assets in support of a feign. They were clearly expecting a few days of fighting and a capitulation.

I do think this is what their strategy has become. It is a very costly one.
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jobu93
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11:51a, 3/29/22
AG
do the Ukes have any counter batteries available to interdict on the artillery or MLRS? I agree if they can silence that arty they will be so much better off.

The artillery is the differentiator for the russians right now.
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GAC06
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 11:51a, 3/29/22
AG
I agree with some of that but calling the month long disaster around Kiev a feint is a huge stretch
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EastSideAg2002
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In reply to MeatDr • 11:55a, 3/29/22
MeatDr said:
JFABNRGR said:
RebelE Infantry said:
aggiehawg said:


It wouldn't surprise me to see these troops show up somewhere on the Donbas front.
They are definitely heading to support taking and holding the eastern land bridge (plan D). UKR still has a ton of work cut out and there is a good chance fresh reinforcing units from within russia reach these areas before the units NW & NE of Kviv can be reallocated.


US officials think the same. I wonder what the "Extremely Concerning Allegations" are.
My guess would be the chemical/biological weapons in the areas after Russian troops have left the area.
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BreNayPop
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11:58a, 3/29/22
AG
I worry this pull back is to evaluate and strongly consider the use of a tactical nuke.
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RebelE Infantry
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In reply to AgLA06 • 12:01p, 3/29/22
AG
AgLA06 said:
RebelE Infantry said:
JFABNRGR said:
RebelE Infantry said:
aggiehawg said:


It wouldn't surprise me to see these troops show up somewhere on the Donbas front.
They are definitely heading to support taking and holding the eastern land bridge (plan D). UKR still has a ton of work cut out and there is a good chance fresh reinforcing units from within russia reach these areas before the units NW & NE of Kviv can be reallocated.


To wit-



Not sure I agree with his statement of victory just yet, but a good overview that puts the different fronts in perspective relative to each other. Be sure to click through to read the whole thread.
That's almost propaganda. No way you commit the amount of forces to get chewed up they did from the north for a feint. Give me a break.

No doubt it had the same effect of forcing Ukraine to keep most troops in the north, south, and in reserve in the west, but not because of some amazing strategy. Only a fool admits they lost 2000 pieces of armor and 20K men for a feint. And you sure as hell don't send parade dress for a feint mission that isn't supposed to happen.

They got stonewalled and are trying to save face based on what they should have done (if they weren't trying to take all of Ukraine from the beginning). And they were.


They've never admitted they lost that many men, it's conjecture at this point. And I haven't seen the parade uniform thing verified at all.

Leaving that aside, another way to look at it is that the Kiev front's mission was to hold out until Mariupol was taken and the marriage of the southern and eastern fronts completed. Probably took longer than they expected but it seems to be complete so now some of the forces around Kiev are free to redeploy.
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RebelE Infantry
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In reply to GAC06 • 12:03p, 3/29/22
AG
Not an unreasonable conclusion. I just found the thread useful for a "broad strokes" picture of the strategy.
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Valtrex11
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In reply to BreNayPop • 12:08p, 3/29/22
BreNayPop said:
I worry this pull back is to evaluate and strongly consider the use of a tactical nuke.
again with this..He's not going to lob Nukes would be the end of Russia he wants to leave a legacy.
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Keegan99
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 12:17p, 3/29/22
AG
So you're no longer of the belief that there is a cauldron about to doom Kiev?
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AgLA06
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In reply to Valtrex11 • 12:26p, 3/29/22
AG
Valtrex11 said:
BreNayPop said:
I worry this pull back is to evaluate and strongly consider the use of a tactical nuke.
again with this..He's not going to lob Nukes would be the end of Russia he wants to leave a legacy.
Agree. But the chemical threat or mass mining of the area is a possibility.
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RebelE Infantry
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In reply to Keegan99 • 12:27p, 3/29/22
AG
I am of the belief that there is still a cauldron about to doom the Ukrainian forces in the south and east. Which is what I've believed the whole time.

Initially I thought that they would encircle Kiev but it appears that the tenacious defense prevented it or it was a feint. Probably some combination of both.
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AgLA06
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 12:31p, 3/29/22
AG
RebelE Infantry said:
I am of the belief that there is still a cauldron about to doom the Ukrainian forces in the south and east. Which is what I've believed the whole time.

Initially I thought that they would encircle Kiev but it appears that the tenacious defense prevented it or it was a feint. Probably some combination of both.
Then someone doesn't understand the definition of a military feint. Getting your ass kicked and taking the losses they did doesn't align with the definition of a feint. No intelligent person can look at this and say, "yep, that was just troop movements disguised as an assault on Kiev".

They had every intention of walking down main street in days just like we did in Iraq. Then reality happened.
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RebelE Infantry
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In reply to AgLA06 • 12:37p, 3/29/22
AG
AgLA06 said:
RebelE Infantry said:
I am of the belief that there is still a cauldron about to doom the Ukrainian forces in the south and east. Which is what I've believed the whole time.

Initially I thought that they would encircle Kiev but it appears that the tenacious defense prevented it or it was a feint. Probably some combination of both.
Then someone doesn't understand the definition of a military feint. Getting your ass kicked and taking the losses they did doesn't align with the definition of a feint. No intelligent person can look at this and say, "yep, that was just troop movements disguised as an assault on Kiev".

They had every intention of walking down main street in days just like we did in Iraq. Then reality happened.


Maybe instead of "feint" it would be more appropriate to say it was an attack intended to fix Ukrainian forces near the capital and prevent them from reinforcing the Donbas group. Might make more sense that way.
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JB!98
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 12:40p, 3/29/22
AG
RebelE Infantry said:
AgLA06 said:
RebelE Infantry said:
I am of the belief that there is still a cauldron about to doom the Ukrainian forces in the south and east. Which is what I've believed the whole time.

Initially I thought that they would encircle Kiev but it appears that the tenacious defense prevented it or it was a feint. Probably some combination of both.
Then someone doesn't understand the definition of a military feint. Getting your ass kicked and taking the losses they did doesn't align with the definition of a feint. No intelligent person can look at this and say, "yep, that was just troop movements disguised as an assault on Kiev".

They had every intention of walking down main street in days just like we did in Iraq. Then reality happened.


Maybe instead of "feint" it would be more appropriate to say it was an attack intended to fix Ukrainian forces near the capital and prevent them from reinforcing the Donbas group. Might make more sense that way.
I think a "feint" is what Ivan is or was doing around Odessa with the threatened amphibious assault. That fixed forces in place and to my knowledge did not result in many Russian casualties. It looks like around Kviv that they ground a bunch of men and material into the dirt.
Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
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aTmAg
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 12:41p, 3/29/22
AG
RebelE Infantry said:
AgLA06 said:
RebelE Infantry said:
I am of the belief that there is still a cauldron about to doom the Ukrainian forces in the south and east. Which is what I've believed the whole time.

Initially I thought that they would encircle Kiev but it appears that the tenacious defense prevented it or it was a feint. Probably some combination of both.
Then someone doesn't understand the definition of a military feint. Getting your ass kicked and taking the losses they did doesn't align with the definition of a feint. No intelligent person can look at this and say, "yep, that was just troop movements disguised as an assault on Kiev".

They had every intention of walking down main street in days just like we did in Iraq. Then reality happened.


Maybe instead of "feint" it would be more appropriate to say it was an attack intended to fix Ukrainian forces near the capital and prevent them from reinforcing the Donbas group. Might make more sense that way.
Or indented to crush Ukrainan forces, ended up getting their asses kicked, and is now being excused as a "feint" or an "intent to fix Ukrainian forces near capital".
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SupaManu
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In reply to AgLA06 • 12:41p, 3/29/22
AG
AgLA06 said:
RebelE Infantry said:
I am of the belief that there is still a cauldron about to doom the Ukrainian forces in the south and east. Which is what I've believed the whole time.

Initially I thought that they would encircle Kiev but it appears that the tenacious defense prevented it or it was a feint. Probably some combination of both.
Then someone doesn't understand the definition of a military feint. Getting your ass kicked and taking the losses they did doesn't align with the definition of a feint. No intelligent person can look at this and say, "yep, that was just troop movements disguised as an assault on Kiev".

They had every intention of walking down main street in days just like we did in Iraq. Then reality happened.
100% wasn't a feint, that's straight up propaganda
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aggiehawg
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In reply to SupaManu • 12:44p, 3/29/22
AG
SupaManu said:
AgLA06 said:
RebelE Infantry said:
I am of the belief that there is still a cauldron about to doom the Ukrainian forces in the south and east. Which is what I've believed the whole time.

Initially I thought that they would encircle Kiev but it appears that the tenacious defense prevented it or it was a feint. Probably some combination of both.
Then someone doesn't understand the definition of a military feint. Getting your ass kicked and taking the losses they did doesn't align with the definition of a feint. No intelligent person can look at this and say, "yep, that was just troop movements disguised as an assault on Kiev".

They had every intention of walking down main street in days just like we did in Iraq. Then reality happened.
100% wasn't a feint, that's straight up propaganda
Agree. Take the capitol and the government ceases to function.
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