***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Eliminatus
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Does anyone know if the Ukes have any naval capacity left? Even if just gunboats? Can't find any info on it.
aezmvp
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Eliminatus said:

Does anyone know if the Ukes have any naval capacity left? Even if just gunboats? Can't find any info on it.
Might have a few patrol craft, like outboard motor boats but nothing significant. Honestly would love for them to get some UUWV to see how well those could take out a frigate or LST or sub. One time and some press about one they put together themselves and yeah all of a sudden all the Russian ships are behind torpedo nets in Sevastapol.
lb3
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Get Off My Lawn said:

TacosaurusRex said:

Eliminatus said:

ttu_85 said:

TexasAggie_02 said:

Quote:

I just watched the video. Those guys pulled one person out of the hatch and pushed him into the barn out of view of the camera then a round was fired from someone. They never went back for their prisoner. I suspect that shot was a "stop resisting" shot and no prisoners were taken.
i honestly don't care. Ukrainians are fighting for their very existence. Russians are murdering civilians, I don't care what Ukraine does with combatants. If they were pushing into Russia, that would be different, but they are defending their homes.
You should. This crap is how you get rivers of blood for decades or centuries. Think with your head and not your emotions. Could you imagine if, in our Civil War the Union and Confeds massacred their POWs. This nation would never have been put back together. This kind of blood letting helps no-one

But, but, Russia and Ukraine are different countries. Yeah only lately and they have a shared history and culture. Nothing poisons the well of the future like atrocities. Just ask China and Japan. China will always hate Japan for the Rape of NanKing. True peace between those two is all but impossible. Imagine if Sherman did to Atlanta what the Japanese did to NanKing.

This kind of insanity on both sides has to stop.


It's pretty much impossible to keep emotions out of the picture of you are on the ground fighting for your existence. Maybe true sociopaths can do it. Most can't. What you say is correct of course, but we have the luxury of being far away in our cozy homes and detached which gives us the ability to remain impartial and think "rationally".

We are but human.

This is why organized armies need strong commanders and discipline. These look like local militia though, essentially on their own. It's a tough topic and one that has raged since the first human brained another one with a rock. It's also one thing to rape and pillage civilians and another executing armed combatants in an increasingly brutal war on both sides. There are so many sliding variables at play here that we will never have a definite answer. Sometimes you play nice at war and it works. Like not sacking captured cities. Sometimes you just kill so many the other side has to stop. Think of the Plains Indians. Both have happened. Which means both are valid. Both have also failed.

Either way, I won't condemn these fellas and I won't lose any sleep. Life is tough. Even more so when you are a Russian armored vehicle crew member in Ukraine. I also have never claimed to be a saint and I sure as hell don't believe that all life is sacred. Then the fact that invaders usually set the tone of how "nice" a war is going to be. Russian has definitely set the tone here first.
I know there are rules to war, but when you invade, bomb, and raid my country things change. Especially if I am in a militia and I catch you, you're getting sunflower seeds in your pocket and your mother can take it up with Putin.
As garryowenag said - unbridled bloodlust impairs things up to the strategic level.

In the COIN world there was talk about the strategic corporal: the idea that good and bad individual deeds have ripple effects. Well, in this social media war, the same holds true. Every instance of this type can be used by Russia to make their rank&file MORE willing to fight brutally to the death.
More importantly for Ukraine, a lot of barbarism could erode support from Ukraine's international benefactors.

That said, there is some value in having irregulars on the battlefield operating outside international norms. It can cause fear when they move into your sector and motivate soldiers to surrender to regular forces.

The down side is the irregulars invite civilian reprisals.
MouthBQ98
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Based off of what I have seen online, it was mostly sunk or captured in port early on. A couple of patrol cutters, one frigate, some patrol boats.
ABATTBQ11
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Proc92 said:

ttu_85 said:

TexasAggie_02 said:

Quote:

I just watched the video. Those guys pulled one person out of the hatch and pushed him into the barn out of view of the camera then a round was fired from someone. They never went back for their prisoner. I suspect that shot was a "stop resisting" shot and no prisoners were taken.
i honestly don't care. Ukrainians are fighting for their very existence. Russians are murdering civilians, I don't care what Ukraine does with combatants. If they were pushing into Russia, that would be different, but they are defending their homes.
You should. This crap is how you get rivers of blood for decades or centuries. Think with your head and not your emotions. Could you imagine if, in our Civil War the Union and Confeds massacred their POWs. This nation would never have been put back together. This kind of blood letting helps no-one

But, but, Russia and Ukraine are different countries. Yeah only lately and they have a shared history and culture. Nothing poisons the well of the future like atrocities. Just ask China and Japan. China will always hate Japan for the Rape of NanKing. True peace between those to is all but impossible.
The well was already poisoned when the Russians indiscriminately bombed city centers and apartment complexes from day 1.


This. The Russians started this and have been indiscriminately murdering Ukrainians and destroying their country. It's beyond naive to not expect some kind of blowback.

These Russians all have weapons. If they don't like what they're being told to do, they're more than equipped to shoot the officers telling them to do it. They can desert. They can surrender. They have choices. If they're still there and they're actively fighting, they've made their choice to support an effort to wage war on civilians.
aezmvp
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lb3 said:

Get Off My Lawn said:

TacosaurusRex said:

Eliminatus said:

ttu_85 said:

TexasAggie_02 said:

Quote:

I just watched the video. Those guys pulled one person out of the hatch and pushed him into the barn out of view of the camera then a round was fired from someone. They never went back for their prisoner. I suspect that shot was a "stop resisting" shot and no prisoners were taken.
i honestly don't care. Ukrainians are fighting for their very existence. Russians are murdering civilians, I don't care what Ukraine does with combatants. If they were pushing into Russia, that would be different, but they are defending their homes.
You should. This crap is how you get rivers of blood for decades or centuries. Think with your head and not your emotions. Could you imagine if, in our Civil War the Union and Confeds massacred their POWs. This nation would never have been put back together. This kind of blood letting helps no-one

But, but, Russia and Ukraine are different countries. Yeah only lately and they have a shared history and culture. Nothing poisons the well of the future like atrocities. Just ask China and Japan. China will always hate Japan for the Rape of NanKing. True peace between those two is all but impossible. Imagine if Sherman did to Atlanta what the Japanese did to NanKing.

This kind of insanity on both sides has to stop.


It's pretty much impossible to keep emotions out of the picture of you are on the ground fighting for your existence. Maybe true sociopaths can do it. Most can't. What you say is correct of course, but we have the luxury of being far away in our cozy homes and detached which gives us the ability to remain impartial and think "rationally".

We are but human.

This is why organized armies need strong commanders and discipline. These look like local militia though, essentially on their own. It's a tough topic and one that has raged since the first human brained another one with a rock. It's also one thing to rape and pillage civilians and another executing armed combatants in an increasingly brutal war on both sides. There are so many sliding variables at play here that we will never have a definite answer. Sometimes you play nice at war and it works. Like not sacking captured cities. Sometimes you just kill so many the other side has to stop. Think of the Plains Indians. Both have happened. Which means both are valid. Both have also failed.

Either way, I won't condemn these fellas and I won't lose any sleep. Life is tough. Even more so when you are a Russian armored vehicle crew member in Ukraine. I also have never claimed to be a saint and I sure as hell don't believe that all life is sacred. Then the fact that invaders usually set the tone of how "nice" a war is going to be. Russian has definitely set the tone here first.
I know there are rules to war, but when you invade, bomb, and raid my country things change. Especially if I am in a militia and I catch you, you're getting sunflower seeds in your pocket and your mother can take it up with Putin.
As garryowenag said - unbridled bloodlust impairs things up to the strategic level.

In the COIN world there was talk about the strategic corporal: the idea that good and bad individual deeds have ripple effects. Well, in this social media war, the same holds true. Every instance of this type can be used by Russia to make their rank&file MORE willing to fight brutally to the death.
More importantly for Ukraine, a lot of barbarism could erode support from Ukraine's international benefactors.

That said, there is some value in having irregulars on the battlefield operating outside international norms. It can cause fear when they move into your sector and motivate soldiers to surrender to regular forces.

The down side is the irregulars invite civilian reprisals.
Large scale on video POW murders... yeah that would erode international support. And is very hard to control. Flip side to that is rapes, looting, mass civilian destruction and using cluster munitions on civilian areas and bombing kids shelters. There is a massive amount of good will for the Ukes that the occasional prisoner pop probably won't undercut.

Should prisoners be treated humanely and moved to the rear and into captivity. Yes. Will it happen 100% of the time. Hell no. I feel for the prisoner's family but ultimately their anger should be directed at the people who sent him to the Ukraine.

I think most people here understand that these things happen in war for a multitude of reasons. And in response to an earlier post the Union army under Sherman did absolutely horrific things on it's march to the sea. Sherman punished a few soldiers to keep it from going from a common occurrence to breaking down the army but not much more. He was under no illusions as to what was happening either. And if you think that Ukrainians didn't already bare some hatred for Russians after the famine then you need to read more.
Eliminatus
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This is an interesting one if true. An interview with a DNR soldier in Mariupol. There is a part two in the comments if ya want. I won't bother linking that one though as most of us don't speak the language.

Basically, things are not the greatest for Russia.

There are translations as well.




Eliminatus
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aezmvp said:

Eliminatus said:

Does anyone know if the Ukes have any naval capacity left? Even if just gunboats? Can't find any info on it.
Might have a few patrol craft, like outboard motor boats but nothing significant. Honestly would love for them to get some UUWV to see how well those could take out a frigate or LST or sub. One time and some press about one they put together themselves and yeah all of a sudden all the Russian ships are behind torpedo nets in Sevastapol.


About that I thought, thanks. Was just looking into Russian combat ship capability and wondering how they would fair in an equal fight.

I'm also assuming that most of the combat troops, if not all, have already gone to shore elsewhere and went up through Crimea. Keeping the fleet out there though does lock down Uke forces in several port areas but mainly Odessa.
MeatDr
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They're in for a cold night...
MeatDr
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JFABNRGR
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MeatDr said:

They're in for a cold night...

That is awesome. Should be some pretty good memes come off that. Looks like morning sun which would have them headed north in hurry. Falling out may be a blessing if those vehicles hit an ambush.

This is pretty common in training and expect even more frequently in combat. Somewhere outside Dahlonega we boarded CH47s and last guy in my stick told RI "last in line missing nine" but somehow MSG didn't get through and next LZ was an hour FLT time away and we lost the aircraft. Turned in to a pretty big CF and can't imagine the wake up those 9 got when they were recovered.
txags92
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MeatDr said:

They're in for a cold night...

Looks like they spotted the drone watching them and the driver decided to try to outrun it. Everybody else was left to fend for themselves.
GarryowenAg
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This made me lol.

MeatDr
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They certainly haven't been serious about peace talks up until today. Why would they start now?
No Spin Ag
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MeatDr said:




Anyone think these will be game changers when they get in the hands of the Ukes?
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
GarryowenAg
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GarryowenAg
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I find this hard to believe since there are tons of reserve forces not yet committed. I wish they provided additional details or clarity.
GarryowenAg
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Also
aezmvp
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No Spin Ag said:

MeatDr said:




Anyone think these will be game changers when they get in the hands of the Ukes?
600 series maybe.
txags92
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aezmvp said:

No Spin Ag said:

MeatDr said:




Anyone think these will be game changers when they get in the hands of the Ukes?
600 series maybe.
Why state this? Why give that info out there so the Russians know they can keep getting their licks in without worrying about these?
aggiehawg
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Not a Bot
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I wouldn't trust anything anyone says about who has what and when. For all we know they've had them for a week and are using these things in the field.
HTownAg98
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GarryowenAg said:


I guess this is the response you make when your troops are getting waxed in these areas. It's like forfeiting a game when you're getting beat 7-0, and taking the ball and going home so they can't beat you 42-0.
AgLA06
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txags92 said:

aezmvp said:

No Spin Ag said:

MeatDr said:




Anyone think these will be game changers when they get in the hands of the Ukes?
600 series maybe.
Why state this? Why give that info out there so the Russians know they can keep getting their licks in without worrying about these?
Fear. Think it's bad now, wait until the Switchblades get there.
ABATTBQ11
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GarryowenAg said:




"We're getting our ***es kicked, so we're pulling back as a show of peaceful intentions."
aezmvp
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txags92 said:

aezmvp said:

No Spin Ag said:

MeatDr said:




Anyone think these will be game changers when they get in the hands of the Ukes?
600 series maybe.
Why state this? Why give that info out there so the Russians know they can keep getting their licks in without worrying about these?
No I'm saying that I don't think the 300 series changes reality on the ground. The explosive charge can disable a truck or a piece of towed artillery or a towed heavy mortar but it's not going to change things on the ground. The 600 can take out MBT, AFV/IFV/APC, and SPG.
aggiehawg
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Quote:

"We're getting our ***es kicked, so we're pulling back as a show of peaceful intentions."
It's not a retreat, they are just advancing in the opposite direction, I guess.
Not a Bot
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Can't trust a word from Moscow.

Could be a regrouping/rearmament effort to try again at some point when weather allows. Could also be moving some of these assets to the eastern front to try to better secure Donbass and southeast.

Either way, Ukraine can't likely afford to move significant numbers of troops away from Kyiv to fight elsewhere.
MeatDr
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More details on what that beautiful sculpture once was.
Not a Bot
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Artillery and MLRS is what they need to be taking out. The Ukes want Russia fighting at close range.
mickeyrig06sq3
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aggiehawg said:


Move infantry and armor back into Belarus, over to Russia, and then bring them in from the east. Continue aerial and rocket bombardment from Belarus towards Kyiv.
RebelE Infantry
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GarryowenAg said:



I find this hard to believe since there are tons of reserve forces not yet committed. I wish they provided additional details or clarity.


Ya I don't believe this at all. They invaded with something less than 200k troops. There's no way that they constitute 70% of the entire military.
Not a Bot
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In the past, many militaries have used strategic pullbacks to their advantage. Would not call this a rout or a retreat.
aezmvp
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RebelE Infantry said:

GarryowenAg said:



I find this hard to believe since there are tons of reserve forces not yet committed. I wish they provided additional details or clarity.


Ya I don't believe this at all. They invaded with something less than 200k troops. There's no way that they constitute 70% of the entire military.
Yeah that doesn't seem to add up. If they said functional BTG maybe I could believe that number?
RebelE Infantry
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aggiehawg said:




It wouldn't surprise me to see these troops show up somewhere on the Donbas front.
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