***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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aggiehawg
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In reply to Rossticus • 6:24p, 3/18/22
AG
Rossticus said:
They want to 100% make sure that they don't share a border with a wounded Russia who feels they have an axe to grind and score to settle with every one of them. They want to ensure that Russia is dead and bloated after this; utterly unable to engage in any reprisal or retributive action for decades.
As long as Russia has the nuclear capacity, they will not be "dead and bloated."

Instead, those mobile tactical nukes will be sold off to the highest bidder. It will be like after the Soviet Union fell when cartels were buying Soviet subs and helicopters, only now the nukes will also be on the market.

And there's not a damn thing anyone could do about that.
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Eliminatus
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In reply to Player To Be Named Later • 6:26p, 3/18/22
AG
Player To Be Named Later said:
It makes complete sense for Europe to be more inclined to join the fight against Russia. They have histories of seeing bloody wars on their soil and great suffering up close. They likely are thinking they've seen this act before and don't want to see it gain steam. These are their people getting massacred.

We've never seen anything like that on our soil, so of course we don't look at it the same way.

The longer this lasts and uglier it gets, the harder it's going to be to keep Europe on the sidelines.

I agree

Here is a copy paste of what I posted on the other thread.


"I am positive they smell blood in the water. As long as Russia exists as it is, those countries will always have a Sword of Damocles hanging over them. From a purely military viewpoint on paper now would be the best time to knock Russia down a peg or ten. It's an opportunity to some I would imagine.

When you are a little guy, you don't want to miss your best shot at putting down the neighborhood bully.

Can't say I blame them when looking through their eyes."

Americans tend to be abysmal with history in general (not directed at you) but let it suffice to say that these countries have a LOT of history with Russia.

The biggest fallacy I see on these threads is that all of us think like Americans (myself included of course) and it is hard to see the rationale sometimes of these other countries and peoples. It's rough to try to get into the mindset of a perpetual Russian invasion and subjugation.
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Rossticus
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In reply to aggiehawg • 6:26p, 3/18/22
Zero "good" outcome. Just have to figure out which flavor of bad we think can be best managed.
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The Fall Guy
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In reply to LostInLA07 • 6:28p, 3/18/22
AG
LostInLA07 said:
It's time to put Russia in their place. Ukraine is kicking their ass with limited resources. Somehow we need to enable a decisive victory.


Yes we Do. Same way we are doing it now. Logistical support and weapons.

Not too excited having to tell my son who is graduating high school about the situation and him wondering what is go8ng to happen.
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Rossticus
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In reply to The Fall Guy • 6:30p, 3/18/22
The Fall Guy said:
LostInLA07 said:
It's time to put Russia in their place. Ukraine is kicking their ass with limited resources. Somehow we need to enable a decisive victory.


Yes we Do. Same way we are doing it now. Logistical support and weapons.

Not too excited having to tell my son who is graduating high school about the situation and him wondering what is go8ng to happen.


The last thing anyone has to worry about right now is being drafted. This thing would have to expand exponentially, to involve China directly, for a draft to be necessary.
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12th Man
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In reply to wangus12 • 6:31p, 3/18/22
AG
wangus12 said:
SPSAg05 said:
Agthatbuilds said:
After seeing way too much of this, if it means ending Vladimir Putin's life, I am 100% okay with starting World War III.
We start WWIII and we see a lot more of this before Putin is dead


The thing is, we won't be starting it.
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Ag In Ok
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6:33p, 3/18/22
AG
So i decided to reread Barbara Tuchmans The Guns of August.

Gulped in chapter 7 when she covers French and British actions leading up to Germany's declaration of war on Russia. I'm not hearing the same words, but some of the actions are similar from the aggressors side.

I think we have passed negotiation with the current situation, and strictly posturing to our bravado Putin. As a marine friend described the Russian position, they "don't have the ass for the fight ". At some point he has to concede. The south is for grabs, meanwhile he is pushing for Mariupol. Seems like he grabs that and changes his negotiation position. Just a guess.

If he doesn't show nazi POWs or regalia, he loses his popularity.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Rossticus • 6:33p, 3/18/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Zero "good" outcome. Just have to figure out which flavor of bad we think can be best managed.
We know where the ICBMs with MIRVs are. They are static.

It's the tactical nukes that we cannot ascertain the precise location. Not to mention the Boomer subs.
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FireAg
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6:34p, 3/18/22
AG
If Russians attack NATO forces operating inside Ukraine, the US needs to hold fast…

If the Russians attack across borders into NATO countries in retaliation for their participation in Ukraine, then the US needs to honor its treaties…

It sucks in many aspects, but it it the right thing to do…
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Rossticus
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6:35p, 3/18/22
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GAC06
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In reply to aggiehawg • 6:37p, 3/18/22
AG
aggiehawg said:
Rossticus said:
Zero "good" outcome. Just have to figure out which flavor of bad we think can be best managed.
We know where the ICBMs with MIRVs are. They are static.

It's the tactical nukes that we cannot ascertain the precise location. Not to mention the Boomer subs.


Russia has mobile MIRV ICBM's

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/RS-24_Yars
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Ag8556
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6:37p, 3/18/22
AG
We still have yet to see the full economic effect of sanctions on the Russian economy as the Russian military is bogged down in Ukraine.

The Russian Central Bank still has their key interest rate set at 20% and is still projecting a spike in inflation. The reported inflation rate was 12.5% last week. There are already reports of factories shutting down production because of a lack of imported parts and components to complete finished goods.

.
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RebelE Infantry
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 6:42p, 3/18/22
AG
JFABNRGR said:
Captain Positivity said:






And then this:
I am seeing 40+ soldiers killed. I pray not and look for gains to continue in this area. Cut off Crimean supply lines and then push to the east to relieve Melitopol and Mariupol. I don't know how much longer Mariupol can hold on as they have been begging for support last 48 hours.


Saw some reports that said closer to 200 killed.
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Rossticus
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6:44p, 3/18/22
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wangus12
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 6:47p, 3/18/22
AG
JFABNRGR said:
Captain Positivity said:






And then this:
I am seeing 40+ soldiers killed. I pray not and look for gains to continue in this area. Cut off Crimean supply lines and then push to the east to relieve Melitopol and Mariupol. I don't know how much longer Mariupol can hold on as they have been begging for support last 48 hours.
There's a twitter post at the bottom of page 353 that is from that missile attack and one of the pictures is multiple dead soldiers buried in the rubble unfortunately.
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PJYoung
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In reply to PJYoung • 7:00p, 3/18/22
AG
PJYoung said:
Russia posts video and it ends up being one of their own helicopters making a forced landing after being hit.

What the hell is going on?

Pilot says: - Ya podbit (I've been hit).





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ATX_AG_08
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7:00p, 3/18/22
AG
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No Spin Ag
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 7:04p, 3/18/22
Agthatbuilds said:
Warning- very distressing video with injured child




F'k Putin for doing this, and everything else that's happened in that country. Hell is too good for him.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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K2-HMFIC
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In reply to Ag In Ok • 7:06p, 3/18/22
Such a damn good book.
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Rossticus
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7:16p, 3/18/22
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Rossticus
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7:26p, 3/18/22
Remember Mariupol…

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Rossticus
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7:36p, 3/18/22
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GAC06
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In reply to Rossticus • 7:40p, 3/18/22
AG
Mariupol has to be close to falling. They've been cut off for a while now and must be low on pretty much everything. They may fight it out and may not have a choice based on the Azov presence and the Chechens attacking
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Rossticus
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7:41p, 3/18/22
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Rossticus
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In reply to GAC06 • 7:41p, 3/18/22
GAC06 said:
Mariupol has to be close to falling. They've been cut off for a while now and must be low on pretty much everything. They may fight it out and may not have a choice based on the Azov presence and the Chechens attacking


Mariupol will end up the Ukrainian Alamo.
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RebelE Infantry
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In reply to GAC06 • 7:49p, 3/18/22
AG
GAC06 said:
Mariupol has to be close to falling. They've been cut off for a while now and must be low on pretty much everything. They may fight it out and may not have a choice based on the Azov presence and the Chechens attacking


Approximate map as of yesterday-

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SPSAg05
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In reply to Rossticus • 7:49p, 3/18/22
AG
Rossticus said:
GAC06 said:
Mariupol has to be close to falling. They've been cut off for a while now and must be low on pretty much everything. They may fight it out and may not have a choice based on the Azov presence and the Chechens attacking


Mariupol will end up the Ukrainian Alamo.
Agreed. There will be some pretty damn inspiring movies made about Mariupol for ages.
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Rossticus
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In reply to SPSAg05 • 8:22p, 3/18/22
SPSAg05 said:
Rossticus said:
GAC06 said:
Mariupol has to be close to falling. They've been cut off for a while now and must be low on pretty much everything. They may fight it out and may not have a choice based on the Azov presence and the Chechens attacking


Mariupol will end up the Ukrainian Alamo.
Agreed. There will be some pretty damn inspiring movies made about Mariupol for ages.


Only if Ukraine survives. Nobody would have made Alamo movies if Mexico had won.
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CondensedFogAggie
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8:29p, 3/18/22

Quote:
The president was seen cracking jokes with patients, and presenting flowers to a 16-year-old girl who was wounded protecting her younger brother during a Russian attack.
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CondensedFogAggie
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8:32p, 3/18/22
Demoralized Russian troops reportedly shoot themselves in legs to avoid fighting
Quote:
"Russian officers shoot themselves in the legs to go home. There are corpses everywhere," he continued.
Another soldier was heard saying that his comrades are "looking for Ukrainian ammunition in order to shoot themselves in the legs and go to hospital."

Deserters face harsh punishment in the motherland, so using Ukrainian weapons and ammo on themselves allows them to make their self-inflicted wounds appear to be battlefield wounds, according to reports.
https://nypost.com/2022/03/18/russian-troops-reportedly-shooting-themselves-in-the-legs-to-avoid-fighting/?utm_source=reddit.com

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Rossticus
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8:37p, 3/18/22


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Red Pear Realty
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8:39p, 3/18/22
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AG
These two Americans are using VZ-58's, a Czech variant of the AK first introduced in the 1950s. Pretty cool gun to take to war.

Sponsor Message: We Split Commissions. Full Service Agents in Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio. Red Pear Realty
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ATX_AG_08
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8:42p, 3/18/22
AG
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Ulysses90
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In reply to Ag In Ok • 8:43p, 3/18/22
AG
Ag In Ok said:
So i decided to reread Barbara Tuchmans The Guns of August.

Gulped in chapter 7 when she covers French and British actions leading up to Germany's declaration of war on Russia. I'm not hearing the same words, but some of the actions are similar from the aggressors side.

I think we have passed negotiation with the current situation, and strictly posturing to our bravado Putin. As a marine friend described the Russian position, they "don't have the ass for the fight ". At some point he has to concede. The south is for grabs, meanwhile he is pushing for Mariupol. Seems like he grabs that and changes his negotiation position. Just a guess.

If he doesn't show nazi POWs or regalia, he loses his popularity.


I concur with that assessment and I believe that in the space of a couple of weeks it will lead to the Russian Army being "deflated in place". This is happening gradually but it will accelerate.

By deflated I mean that the Russians will have passed the culmination of combat power. They will be unable to move forward and holding ground will be increasingly difficult.

-Their supply lines will be less secures.
-Their ammunition, especially PGMs, will be depleted.
-They will be frozen in place and only be able to withdraw.
-As weapons with some standoff capability begin to flood into the hands of the UA, the Russian rear areas will come under regular attack from the kamikaze drones and their artillery will be constantly at risk from drone attack.

The Ukrainians must relieve the pressure on Mariupol and Kherson but aside from providing relief to encircled civilian populations they don't need to try and seize ground from the Russians on agree scale. Deflating the Russian army at a steady pace rather than trying to route and pursue the Russians may forestall Putin from making a decision to use nukes.

So what does Putin do when it is apparent that his conventional forces are not only defeated but unable to withdraw as an army? The Russians are wrestling with the tar baby and will be increasingly stuck both physically in Ukraine and diplomatically.
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In reply to
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In reply to Rossticus • 8:43p, 3/18/22
AG
Rossticus said:
SPSAg05 said:
Rossticus said:
GAC06 said:
Mariupol has to be close to falling. They've been cut off for a while now and must be low on pretty much everything. They may fight it out and may not have a choice based on the Azov presence and the Chechens attacking


Mariupol will end up the Ukrainian Alamo.
Agreed. There will be some pretty damn inspiring movies made about Mariupol for ages.


Only if Ukraine survives. Nobody would have made Alamo movies if Mexico had won.

WHEN Ukraine survives.
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