one MEEN Ag said:

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HTownAg98 said:

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4the_Record said:

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....sounds like a message to Poland and the Baltics as much as an attack on Ukraine

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There are times when "Don't press send" on a middle launch is appropriate, and this is one of those times. Poland could handle Russia on their own right now. Throw in the other Baltic states, and it would be a bloodbath. And they may well decide to go all the way to Moscow for Russia's attempt to play FAFO.

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This is when Moscow considers tactical nukes. The whole reason they wanted buffer states and the warsaw pact was so they could limit a military advance through only the north half of Germany. If all the Baltic states rise up and attack Moscow, they'll take it.

That would really put Putin in a corner. Forces pressing in on Moscow, if Russia uses tactical nukes it will surely result in immediate escalation into Russia getting sent back to the stone age.

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Russia is not using Nukes under any circumstance hth

Quote:

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"We see little evidence of [Russian] recruiting in Syria to bring people back to Ukraine,"
@CENTCOM
commander Gen. Frank McKenzie says.

---

U.S. has seen "little effort" from Russia to bring the Wagner Group and foreign fighters from Syria into Ukraine: U.S. Central Command chief Frank McKenzie

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) March 18, 2022

Russia posts video and it ends up being one of their own helicopters making a forced landing after being hit.

What the hell is going on?

Pilot says: - Ya podbit (I've been hit).

"tactical landing operation"🤔#Russia 🇷🇺 @mod_russia publishes Ka-52 combat footage around Hostomel airport #Ukraine 🇺🇦 which appear to end with a forced landing. https://t.co/rFZOM4oHpi

— Joseph Dempsey (@JosephHDempsey) March 18, 2022

GAC06 said:

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BoDog said:

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Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...

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We cannot intercept their ICBM's

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Will they we able to reach mainland US? I see Europe in the line of fire but I don't see Asian counties being cool with Russia sending nukes overhead, especially seeing how janky their military operations are.

PJYoung said:

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In the past week Russian forces have made marginal gains in Ukraine, namely towards Kryvyi Rih, some salients & widening supply lines,
Ukraine has had gains too.
During that week, @oryxspioenkop has recorded them losing 182 pieces of armour and 26 aircraft. This isn't sustainable pic.twitter.com/Qqg6ZKVncy

— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) March 18, 2022

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He means Russia has lost that equipment, not Ukraine, correct?

Comeby! said:

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GAC06 said:

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BoDog said:

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Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...

---

We cannot intercept their ICBM's

---

Will they we able to reach mainland US? I see Europe in the line of fire but I don't see Asian counties being cool with Russia sending nukes overhead, especially seeing how janky their military operations are.

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LOL when Russia fires their ICBMS they don't need to cross over Europe like it's a commercial airline flight. They can fire them over the poles and from Eastern Russia to the Aleutians and Alaska and down North America.

Commercial flights don't really go over Europe either between Russia and the US

https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/curved-line-shortest-distance-between-two-points.899125/

Charpie said:

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GarryowenAg said:

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⚡️General Staff: Russia almost exhausted its entire stockpile of missiles.

Russia’s military-industrial sector is working around the clock to replenish its stock, according to Ukraine’s General Staff.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 18, 2022

We'll see how accurate this is.

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Huge if true.

This is when you go in and hit them hard.

**** Russia

Viva Ukraine

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Typically missiles = rocket + guidance system. If Russia runs out of precision guided munitions, the options are "don't strike" or "switch to dumb munitions." Think of it as running out of snipers and either giving up or switching to folks throwing grenades. If they go for the latter: that's lots of HE landing indiscriminately in order to level the target. Lots of collateral damage.

Sorta. They're using missiles (cruise missiles launched from bombers, and Iskander and Tochka tactical ballistic missiles) to strike targets generally out of artillery range, like the airport at Lviv today. If they're out of missiles the options are not to hit deep targets or to try to bomb them with air strikes. They have that ability but it also puts their aircraft at risk and they're taking losses there as well.

PJYoung said:

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Quote:

---

"We see little evidence of [Russian] recruiting in Syria to bring people back to Ukraine,"
@CENTCOM
commander Gen. Frank McKenzie says.

---

U.S. has seen "little effort" from Russia to bring the Wagner Group and foreign fighters from Syria into Ukraine: U.S. Central Command chief Frank McKenzie

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) March 18, 2022

---

It bears repeating that Frank also publicly dismissed the possibility that the Taliban would rapidly capture Kabul if the US withdrew and that closing Bagram presented any significant risk. He's only prognosticating about Syrian forces so the consequences of being wrong are not really that serious.

On the other hand, if Frank McKenzie starts to make comments about the probability of Putin exercising first use of tactical nukes then I am not going to sleep very well. His record of underestimating threats is not that much different from how Robert Gates described Biden's record on foreign policy issues.

Comeby! said:

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GAC06 said:

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BoDog said:

---

Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...

---

We cannot intercept their ICBM's

---

Will they we able to reach mainland US? I see Europe in the line of fire but I don't see Asian counties being cool with Russia sending nukes overhead, especially seeing how janky their military operations are.

---

The nukes go straight up into the edge of space and back down again over the target and the total flight time isn't very long, like 30 minutes before the warheads reach US soil.

If a full on launch were to take place there wouldn't be time for anyone to complain about it.

Well, he and his team can count planes to / from Russia / Syria.

Waffledynamics said:

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PJYoung said:

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In the past week Russian forces have made marginal gains in Ukraine, namely towards Kryvyi Rih, some salients & widening supply lines,
Ukraine has had gains too.
During that week, @oryxspioenkop has recorded them losing 182 pieces of armour and 26 aircraft. This isn't sustainable pic.twitter.com/Qqg6ZKVncy

— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) March 18, 2022

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He means Russia has lost that equipment, not Ukraine, correct?

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Yes, that is correct:

I should add, this is Russian equipment losses.

— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) March 18, 2022

Valtrex11 said:

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one MEEN Ag said:

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HTownAg98 said:

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4the_Record said:

---

....sounds like a message to Poland and the Baltics as much as an attack on Ukraine

---

There are times when "Don't press send" on a middle launch is appropriate, and this is one of those times. Poland could handle Russia on their own right now. Throw in the other Baltic states, and it would be a bloodbath. And they may well decide to go all the way to Moscow for Russia's attempt to play FAFO.

---

This is when Moscow considers tactical nukes. The whole reason they wanted buffer states and the warsaw pact was so they could limit a military advance through only the north half of Germany. If all the Baltic states rise up and attack Moscow, they'll take it.

That would really put Putin in a corner. Forces pressing in on Moscow, if Russia uses tactical nukes it will surely result in immediate escalation into Russia getting sent back to the stone age.

---

Russia is not using Nukes under any circumstance hth

---

A page or two back is Russia official nuke policy and to sum it up says "Nukes can be used to preserve the state."
Going after Moscow would be in Russia's view "Preserving the state"

Sure. I skipped some of the specifics. Just pointing out the double edge of this. PGMs help their user to prosecute targets more efficiently and with less collateral damage. (I.e. makes the user more surgical.) When that tool is exhausted; the conflict may turn bloodier.

GAC06 said:

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Sorta. They're using missiles (cruise missiles launched from bombers, and Iskander and Tochka tactical ballistic missiles) to strike targets generally out of artillery range, like the airport at Lviv today. If they're out of missiles the options are not to hit deep targets or to try to bomb them with air strikes. They have that ability but it also puts their aircraft at risk and they're taking losses there as well.

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Do you mean using their TU-95 to strike Ukraine? I don't think I've heard much about those being a factor in this conflict despite being able to still being able to operate out of Russian airspace.

I guess it's possible but I doubt it, especially if Ukraine still has S-300's or other high altitude SAM's. If they really are out of missiles I'm guessing they'll largely stop deep strikes or use Su-34's or similar

The Fife said:

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GAC06 said:

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Sorta. They're using missiles (cruise missiles launched from bombers, and Iskander and Tochka tactical ballistic missiles) to strike targets generally out of artillery range, like the airport at Lviv today. If they're out of missiles the options are not to hit deep targets or to try to bomb them with air strikes. They have that ability but it also puts their aircraft at risk and they're taking losses there as well.

---

Do you mean using their TU-95 to strike Ukraine? I don't think I've heard much about those being a factor in this conflict despite being able to still being able to operate out of Russian airspace.

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Tu-95 would get eaten alive if Ukraine has any S-300 or other medium range SAMs left. The only thing they could do is launch cruise missiles from Russian airspace.

Comeby! said:

---

GAC06 said:

---

BoDog said:

---

Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...

---

We cannot intercept their ICBM's

---

Will they we able to reach mainland US? I see Europe in the line of fire but I don't see Asian counties being cool with Russia sending nukes overhead, especially seeing how janky their military operations are.

---

They can launch them from submarines in the Pacific very easily.

The Fife said:

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GAC06 said:

---

Sorta. They're using missiles (cruise missiles launched from bombers, and Iskander and Tochka tactical ballistic missiles) to strike targets generally out of artillery range, like the airport at Lviv today. If they're out of missiles the options are not to hit deep targets or to try to bomb them with air strikes. They have that ability but it also puts their aircraft at risk and they're taking losses there as well.

---

Do you mean using their TU-95 to strike Ukraine? I don't think I've heard much about those being a factor in this conflict despite being able to still being able to operate out of Russian airspace.

---

Why use TU-95's ? its a strategic continental offensive weapon and its big and slow. Its only saving grace is the ability to fly high and yes the Ukraine would have trouble reaching them but if the ordinances carried by the TU-95 are like the rest of what we have seen, I dont think those munitions could hit the broad side of a barn with with a T-80 inside.

If I am Russia I reserve those for Western Europe and the USA in the event the US navy jumps my boomers or revels an unknown ability to bunker bust ICBM silos

Get Off My Lawn said:

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And on the "going after Moscow" topic - projecting power is far harder than defending your home. Americans are terrible with our doctrine, but one piece gets drilled in: before assaulting you want a minimum advantage of 3:1. And as we see in Ukraine - advanced anti-armor weapons has exacerbated the asymmetrical capabilities of a defense in depth.

TLDR: Europe marching to Moscow is a fever dream.

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Europe marching to Moscow has happened twice before, so that's not really a fever dream from the Russian POV. Europe successfully marching on Moscow, yeah, that's the fever dream.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has announced that Poland will submit a proposal for a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine at the next NATO summit.

— Global: MilitaryInfo (@Global_Mil_Info) March 18, 2022

Ukraine/Russia: Not to be set out for obvious reasons, but this weeks counteroffensives in the west to keep open the western axis for resupply are clearly part of some new defences. Significant reinforcements this axis this week.

— The Cavell Group (@TCG_CrisisRisks) March 18, 2022

Ukraine/Russia: Fighting continued mostly northeast and northwest of Kyiv today with reports of further Ukraine attacks against resupply elements of the 47th GTD near Varva we believe. Some BTGs around Romny progressed west, but reports of little movement elsewhere around Kyiv.

— The Cavell Group (@TCG_CrisisRisks) March 18, 2022

Ukraine/Russia: Russian offensives on Mariupol today with reports they progressed into new areas in various strategic locations. Actual accurate details on the very fluid current situation and control are difficult to ascertain, but the humanitarian situation is critical.

— The Cavell Group (@TCG_CrisisRisks) March 18, 2022

TRM said:

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Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has announced that Poland will submit a proposal for a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine at the next NATO summit.

— Global: MilitaryInfo (@Global_Mil_Info) March 18, 2022

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Uh oh. That could get spicy.

Question about NATO. If Poland joins the fight and gets struck on Polish territory, could that trigger Article 5?

BadMoonRisin said:

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Comeby! said:

---

GAC06 said:

---

BoDog said:

---

Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...

---

We cannot intercept their ICBM's

---

Will they we able to reach mainland US? I see Europe in the line of fire but I don't see Asian counties being cool with Russia sending nukes overhead, especially seeing how janky their military operations are.

---

They can launch them from submarines in the Pacific very easily.

---

Uhhh, you think our anti-submarine warfare is asleep at the wheel?

No expert here but I would think land based Russian ICBM's would launch first then the submarines if we don't take them out first.

I know a few guys, some P3 pilots others Sub Comm experts, lots of people around D.C. that can answer questions that don't violate secrecy to give an idea of what happens when SHTF. Or is SHFT like our Russian friend on YouTube says!

30 minutes..... I may get out as far as the Blueridge from where I am but I'd have to be in my Jag pushing the 180mph capability and there would have to be no traffic.....I think I'd rather just watch the fireworks cause I'm not sure I want to be around for the aftermath. Got a little 3rd floor balcony looking toward DC to watch it all from.

Earlier, the Ukrainian troops destroyed a few helicopters and multiple transport vehicles at Chornobaivka - https://t.co/Awj0ujzo9M
If Arestovych's information is confirmed, this may be the fourth or fifth successful Ukrainian attack on the same Russian-controlled airfield.

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) March 18, 2022

More about the supply stock.

Looks like a real jumbled collection of Tochka-U short-range ballistic missile TEL’s: different camo patterns, quite old and not very well looked after- clearly straight out of storage, which makes sense as Russia retired its Tochka-U missiles awhile ago. https://t.co/Hb7FGr1EID

— ELINT News (@ELINTNews) March 18, 2022