***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Rossticus
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aezmvp
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Waffledynamics said:

Rossticus said:


Surely they must be aware of how futile and pointless this vote is, and how dangerous it would be if they got their way.

Right?
Yes but this is leverage inside NATO to get additional troops and equipment, especially anti missile defenses surged to their countries.

They are literally around the corner from the Ukraine. What happens when this is over? Russia is going to rearm and reorganize their army and the next time it might not be so incompetent.
deddog
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Any ideas on what assistance the Russians are asking from the Chinese?

The Russians should have a ton of ammo, at least for their old systems.
Their Air Force, while somewhat ineffective, is not really suffering.
Can't really buy any ships.
Can't really use Chinese tanks

So what exactly are they asking from the Chinese? Drones? Body armor? Smart munitions?
Rossticus
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Waffledynamics said:

Rossticus said:


Surely they must be aware of how futile and pointless this vote is, and how dangerous it would be if they got their way.

Right?


They're also terrified of what it means for them if Russia comes out of this with a win. They don't trust NATO to protect them from Russia if that happens. They think they'll get the same as Ukraine.

Article 5 has to be a unanimous vote. Tell me you can't see the US and Western Europe voting "no" to keep themself out of immediate nuclear peril.
Eliminatus
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deddog said:

Any ideas on what assistance the Russians are asking from the Chinese?

The Russians should have a ton of ammo, at least for their old systems.
Their Air Force, while somewhat ineffective, is not really suffering.
Can't really buy any ships.
Can't really use Chinese tanks

So what exactly are they asking from the Chinese? Drones? Body armor? Smart munitions?


Good questions and I was thinking on it myself earlier. I'm guessing trucks and other transport would be near the top. Any and all small arms would likely be welcome. Even if Russia has enough. Saw somewhere where foodstuffs was mentioned? That would be interesting.

Honestly any of the more usual non combat supplies would be useful and may be asked for. Drones is another possibility like you say.

It may just be the underlying message under it rather than the actual items that Russia is shooting for here. Any accepted help gets China more on their side and disrupts the world balance just a smidge more.
aezmvp
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deddog said:

Any ideas on what assistance the Russians are asking from the Chinese?

The Russians should have a ton of ammo, at least for their old systems.
Their Air Force, while somewhat ineffective, is not really suffering.
Can't really buy any ships.
Can't really use Chinese tanks

So what exactly are they asking from the Chinese? Drones? Body armor? Smart munitions?
Based on earlier reporting drones, intel and commo gear, optics, vehicles (likely military transport and unarmored).
deddog
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Foodstuff might make sense, though not sure if diet is similar.
It could be that Russia is diverting more resources meant for civilians to their army, so they need the Chinese assistance to prevent short term shortages e.g. for gasoline.

It could also be the media trying to shame Russia by making it look like they are asking China for help. I have no doubt they want / need China's backing politically. But I have a hard time wrapping my head around the Ruskies asking China for any kind of military assistance.

Saw post above. Some of that makes sense too.
Too bad the Russians don't have a Cabelas :-)
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Rossticus
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ATX_AG_08
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ttu_85
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TAMUallen said:

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

Waffledynamics said:

GAC06 said:

BoDog said:

Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...


We cannot intercept their ICBM's
Why not?
Anti-missile shields are designed to prevent rogue strikes from places like Iran or North Korea if they ever had that capability. A full MAD release isn't able to be stopped.


That's assuming you know how many were launched and what our defense truly is...

Anyway, take this to another thread. I don't wanna catch a ban
Why would you be banned. The Nuke angle is a HUGE part of the geopolitical and military aspect of this crises. Reality sucks. This isnt some sort of video game with a handicap setting.
ttu_85
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Rossticus said:




I dont understand. That aircraft repair plant should have been leveled no later than day 2 of the war. Strange
ttu_85
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GAC06 said:

Eliminatus said:

VaultingChemist said:



Our European troops are being told to keep silent. Seems like a good idea.


American military has not always been the brightest at social media postings. In this case in a very volatile situation, I have zero problem clamping down on it hard. There is nothing that some Joe in Poland can post that is going to help the situation and every chance of it hurting it.

Good move IMO. We all here see the information war being fought in real time in front of our very eyes.


If **** gets real we need to take everyone's phone.
Very true but it works the other way. You can run a great disinformation ops with this as well.
wangus12
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ttu_85 said:

Rossticus said:




I dont understand. That aircraft repair plant should have been leveled no later than day 2 of the war. Strange
Right. As usual, Russia's entire campaign really hasn't made sense at all even if they did truly expect Ukraine to welcome them with open arms. By the end of day 2, that was clearly not the case and they should have hit several strategic points and over 3 weeks in and they still haven't done that. Incompetency of the highest order.
McInnis 03
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Gilligan
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Rossticus said:


Rest in Pieces!!!
SpreadsheetAg
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Rossticus said:


I spent 2 weeks in Romania back in 2016.... I can tell you the Romanians (every one I spoke to) would sooner nuke their own country than let the Russians take it over again.
GarryowenAg
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We'll see how accurate this is.
GarryowenAg
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Charpie
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GarryowenAg said:



We'll see how accurate this is.
Huge if true.

This is when you go in and hit them hard.

**** Russia

Viva Ukraine
The Fife
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Exhausted... abandoned... same thing I guess, they no longer have the missiles.
agent-maroon
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Any thoughts about this being russian misinformation to draw the Ukes into ambush situations?
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JFABNRGR
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Charpie said:

GarryowenAg said:



We'll see how accurate this is.
Huge if true.

This is when you go in and hit them hard.

**** Russia

Viva Ukraine
this report states last attack was from sub launched cruise missiles. To me that's not a weapon you release casually. Likely quite expensive and difficult to replenish.

Sounds like a job for our special operations waterborne mammals.......

https://londonlovesbusiness.com/russian-submarine-fires-six-cruise-missiles-near-to-polish-border-damaging-a-building/
4the_Record
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....sounds like a message to Poland and the Baltics as much as an attack on Ukraine
aezmvp
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This is only one side of the advance towards Kyiv. They might be receiving both sides of that advance but it is likely an incomplete accounting for casualties there and that doesn't account for Russian dead in the Kharkiv attack, the attack from the separatist areas or the South.

If we look at Ukrainian estimates:



Their figures (excluding aircraft those are ALWAYS inflated) might be pretty close to accurate. The Russian casualties could really be north of 50k all in (KIA/WIA/MIA/POW). I would seriously expect that if that is the case the Russians won't be able to make any serious advances for 2 more weeks. That is going to really really ramp up the pressure. The other major problem is that Russian verifiable material losses (outside MANPADS and ATGM) is almost 1500. The backlog to verify equipment losses is in the 100s. So likely the Russians are going to have a hard time either way.
HTownAg98
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4the_Record said:

....sounds like a message to Poland and the Baltics as much as an attack on Ukraine

There are times when "Don't press send" on a missile launch is appropriate, and this is one of those times. Poland could handle Russia on their own right now. Throw in the other Baltic states, and it would be a bloodbath. And they may well decide to go all the way to Moscow for Russia's attempt to play FAFO.
PJYoung
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30!

PJYoung
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VaultingChemist
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one MEEN Ag
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HTownAg98 said:

4the_Record said:

....sounds like a message to Poland and the Baltics as much as an attack on Ukraine

There are times when "Don't press send" on a middle launch is appropriate, and this is one of those times. Poland could handle Russia on their own right now. Throw in the other Baltic states, and it would be a bloodbath. And they may well decide to go all the way to Moscow for Russia's attempt to play FAFO.
This is when Moscow considers tactical nukes. The whole reason they wanted buffer states and the warsaw pact was so they could limit a military advance through only the north half of Germany. If all the Baltic states rise up and attack Moscow, they'll take it.

That would really put Putin in a corner. Forces pressing in on Moscow, if Russia uses tactical nukes it will surely result in immediate escalation into Russia getting sent back to the stone age.
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