***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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lb3
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PJYoung said:

Russia posts video and it ends up being one of their own helicopters making a forced landing after being hit.

What the hell is going on?

Pilot says: - Ya podbit (I've been hit).




Any idea what the main flashing light on the left panel is? The upper lights appear to say LICO and given that there is a left and a right it is most likely a wheel indicator light or maybe even an engine light.

ATX_AG_08
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TRM
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DukeMu
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C@LAg said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

PJYoung said:

Rossticus said:

ATX_AG_08 said:




Tell 'em to **** around and find out.


What do you think we do if they use tactical nukes in Ukraine?


Well it would be likely that even the Indians and Chinese cut ties with them and the Russian economy completely implodes, for one.
Indians, possibly.

china? doubtful.

they still want to use russia to run interference for their future expansion plans.

Putin is becoming bad for Chinese business.
Jetpilot86
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Paywall
MouthBQ98
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G Martin 87 said:

Get Off My Lawn said:

And on the "going after Moscow" topic - projecting power is far harder than defending your home. Americans are terrible with our doctrine, but one piece gets drilled in: before assaulting you want a minimum advantage of 3:1. And as we see in Ukraine - advanced anti-armor weapons has exacerbated the asymmetrical capabilities of a defense in depth.

TLDR: Europe marching to Moscow is a fever dream.
Europe marching to Moscow has happened twice before, so that's not really a fever dream from the Russian POV. Europe successfully marching on Moscow, yeah, that's the fever dream.


Both times previously the start was in Poland. Moscow is actually pretty far west in Russia Proper, especially if you are going through a friendly or participating Ukraine. This is all hypothetical though, because while NATO, for example, has a large collective numeric and qualitative advantage in front line units, any such an effort would be telegraphed by the necessary logistical preparations and if any attack can't be sustained to keep defenses off balance and unable to coordinate, the defenses will eventually dig in somewhere in depth at critical points preventing maneuver warfare and inflict serious losses. Just as has happened in Ukraine.

There is only so much "reach" for a breakthrough and exploitation, even with a very modern army, before it must pull up and reorganize and resupply. Critical parts of Russia may just be too deep to consider that. Russia is running into these exact problems in their own attack in Ukraine. They could only push so far before they had to halt to reorganize and resupply and that wasn't nearly as far into Ukraine fast enough to prevent a solid defense from forming in key strategic locations.

And all that is not to mention that if Russia perceived a real threat to an internal attack that might defeat it, they would almost certainly employ tactical nukes on battlefield formations in desperation.
Rossticus
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Waffledynamics said:

TRM said:




Uh oh. That could get spicy.

Question about NATO. If Poland joins the fight and gets struck on Polish territory, could that trigger Article 5?


It could but article 5 still requires a unanimous vote. Technically, NATO soil could be attacked and countries could vote "no" on invoking article 5. That doesn't preclude unilateral action in response by independent countries outside of NATO's framework, however.
LMCane
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MouthBQ98 said:

G Martin 87 said:

Get Off My Lawn said:

And on the "going after Moscow" topic - projecting power is far harder than defending your home. Americans are terrible with our doctrine, but one piece gets drilled in: before assaulting you want a minimum advantage of 3:1. And as we see in Ukraine - advanced anti-armor weapons has exacerbated the asymmetrical capabilities of a defense in depth.

TLDR: Europe marching to Moscow is a fever dream.
Europe marching to Moscow has happened twice before, so that's not really a fever dream from the Russian POV. Europe successfully marching on Moscow, yeah, that's the fever dream.


Both times previously the start was in Poland. Moscow is actually pretty far west in Russia Proper, especially if you are going through a friendly or participating Ukraine. This is all hypothetical though, because while NATO, for example, has a large collective numeric and qualitative advantage in front line units, any such an effort would be telegraphed by the necessary logistical preparations and if any attack can't be sustained to keep defenses off balance and unable to coordinate, the defenses will eventually dig in somewhere in depth at critical points preventing maneuver warfare and inflict serious losses. Just as has happened in Ukraine.

There is only so much "reach" for a breakthrough and exploitation, even with a very modern army, before it must pull up and reorganize and resupply. Critical parts of Russia may just be too deep to consider that. Russia is running into these exact problems in their own attack in Ukraine. They could only push so far before they had to halt to reorganize and resupply and that wasn't nearly as far into Ukraine fast enough to prevent a solid defense from forming in key strategic locations.

And all that is not to mention that if Russia perceived a real threat to an internal attack that might defeat it, they would almost certainly employ tactical nukes on battlefield formations in desperation.
Why are the last two posts discussing Poland?
When the Baltics are now part of NATO, which is what Putin cries about all the time?



NATO forces would be staged well to the east of Poland's borders- and it's a literal straight line to Moscow
74OA
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LMCane said:

MouthBQ98 said:

G Martin 87 said:

Get Off My Lawn said:

And on the "going after Moscow" topic - projecting power is far harder than defending your home. Americans are terrible with our doctrine, but one piece gets drilled in: before assaulting you want a minimum advantage of 3:1. And as we see in Ukraine - advanced anti-armor weapons has exacerbated the asymmetrical capabilities of a defense in depth.

TLDR: Europe marching to Moscow is a fever dream.
Europe marching to Moscow has happened twice before, so that's not really a fever dream from the Russian POV. Europe successfully marching on Moscow, yeah, that's the fever dream.


Both times previously the start was in Poland. Moscow is actually pretty far west in Russia Proper, especially if you are going through a friendly or participating Ukraine. This is all hypothetical though, because while NATO, for example, has a large collective numeric and qualitative advantage in front line units, any such an effort would be telegraphed by the necessary logistical preparations and if any attack can't be sustained to keep defenses off balance and unable to coordinate, the defenses will eventually dig in somewhere in depth at critical points preventing maneuver warfare and inflict serious losses. Just as has happened in Ukraine.

There is only so much "reach" for a breakthrough and exploitation, even with a very modern army, before it must pull up and reorganize and resupply. Critical parts of Russia may just be too deep to consider that. Russia is running into these exact problems in their own attack in Ukraine. They could only push so far before they had to halt to reorganize and resupply and that wasn't nearly as far into Ukraine fast enough to prevent a solid defense from forming in key strategic locations.

And all that is not to mention that if Russia perceived a real threat to an internal attack that might defeat it, they would almost certainly employ tactical nukes on battlefield formations in desperation.
Why are the last two posts discussing Poland?
When the Baltics are now part of NATO, which is what Putin cries about all the time?



NATO forces would be staged well to the east of Poland's borders- and it's a literal straight line to Moscow
Yep, same staging area and same straight 1000-mile line Napoleon and Hitler used.
CondensedFogAggie
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SpreadsheetAg said:

Rossticus said:


I spent 2 weeks in Romania back in 2016.... I can tell you the Romanians (every one I spoke to) would sooner nuke their own country than let the Russians take it over again.
This.

You think we hate Putin and Xi? Pretty much every country neighboring Russia and China hold a deep hatred against them, bordering on xenophobic. Even if the culture and language is similar.
MouthBQ98
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More narrow front, tougher terrain, shorter window of summer weather. Could be done.
I was just saying historically the deep attacks into Russia/USSR by the French and Germans came pretty directly and started way back in Poland so had much further to go to reach Moscow as an objective than a hypothetical attack today, which is probably why Putin is so paranoid about the NATO map today.

My ultimate point is that in practical terms, it is still too deep of a target even from much more optimal jump off points, and low yield nukes would certainly be used in defense, in a hypothetical.

That is why Putin is so freaked out about Ukraine possibly being in NATO one day, presuming NATO has to be a natural enemy of Russia: Ukraine would be a new, larger second front to defend and it is the most ideal terrain.
aggiehawg
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Progress?
aezmvp
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A whole bunch of chatter about a Russian army command post with 2 or 3 generals and staff taken out at Kherson airbase on Telegram. Trying to find something solid but that would mean decapitating a good bit of their Southern command. Holy crap.
The Fife
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More like trying to quit while they think they're ahead
doctorAg13
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No way they agree to disarmament.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
CondensedFogAggie
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aggiehawg said:



Progress?
Progress? Disarmament?!?

If you mean progress as in Zelensky telling Putin to shove this up his ass, yes.

74OA
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aggiehawg said:



Progress?
It's just a rewording of Putin's original demands and the second and third are so vague as to almost invite a future Russian invasion justified by Ukrainian "non-compliance".
CondensedFogAggie
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Lyrics to the Ukraine national anthem
Quote:

The glory and freedom of Ukraine has not yet perished
Luck will still smile on us brother-Ukrainians.
Our enemies will die, as the dew does in the sunshine,
and we, too, brothers, we'll live happily in our land.
We'll not spare either our souls or bodies to get freedom
and we'll prove that we brothers are of Kozak kin.
Rossticus
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aggiehawg said:



Progress?


In a word…no.

Rossticus
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mickeyrig06sq3
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Comeby! said:

GAC06 said:

BoDog said:

Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...


We cannot intercept their ICBM's


Will they we able to reach mainland US? I see Europe in the line of fire but I don't see Asian counties being cool with Russia sending nukes overhead, especially seeing how janky their military operations are.
With nukes, it's probably best to just assume they can go wherever they need to go. There's probably a range limit, but I'm guessing the Russians probably engineered their stuff to hit what they want to hit.
MeatDr
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CondensedFogAggie
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https://instagr.am/p/CbL1tY-MkVj
Quote:

"Russian BTR vehicles I think are worse than tanks. The gun on them fires faster and they carry soldiers. If we see a BTR there are soldiers near it. If we see a tank sometimes it is alone and easier to destroy.

Not long ago we were shot at by BTR main gun. It to me is the worst. A missile or rocket or artillery just shoots and hits wherever it lands. Vehicle fire from tanks and others makes me angry because they are shooting straight at you.

Wounds from these are horrible. A whole leg can be removed. A shot to the body makes someone almost explode. They are easy to destroy but not good to fight directly."

- Ukrainian Soldier. Invasion of Ukraine. March 15th, 2022.
Quote:

"My experience with war before this was in Afghanistan. There wasn't much destruction involved there in terms of whole villages being leveled, but here; it's something out of World War Two. Entire blocks are on fire and destroyed. Bodies lay about and stray animals try to feed on human remains.

It's hard for the mind to comprehend. Just weeks ago, I was home. These neighborhoods were quiet and alive. People went to work, watched tv, went shopping and played with their kids.

Now there are sandbags on the windows. Explosions are a constant part of life, and everywhere you look someone is having the worst days of their lives. Destroyed vehicles both military and civilian litter the streets. A car was blown so high by an explosive it ended up crashing through a house.

I said this is hard to comprehend, and it is. Many of these neighborhoods look and feel like home. Peace is an anomaly and this for me is the realization that destruction like this has been the norm for thousands of years. How spoiled we were the last 80 years. How ****ing spoiled."

- Western Volunteer. Invasion of Ukraine. March 16th, 2022.
CondensedFogAggie
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https://instagr.am/p/CbQNPjYJIo2
Quote:

"I am going home. This is too much for me. I got caught up in the fervor of wanting to help and didn't actually think this through. I will admit it. I am running away. It's just too much for me.

My prior military experience was not like this at all, and I'm glad it's not. The Taliban never bracketed me with artillery and they never shot at us with tanks and aircraft. This is just above my level of fear management.

I feel like a coward. I came here to help, was in combat for bit and now I'm leaving because I just can't get my fear under control. I'm going to get someone killed if I stay here. I just feel so bad about this, man. I just felt like I was always on the verge of a panic attack."

- Western Volunteer. Invasion of Ukraine. March 14th, 2022
I can't say I blame him. This makes it even more harder to describe the incredible bravery of all the Ukrainian defenders, and the foreign fighters who are staying.
Rossticus
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Excellent post. Thanks.
wangus12
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CondensedFoggyAggie said:


Lyrics to the Ukraine national anthem
Quote:

The glory and freedom of Ukraine has not yet perished
Luck will still smile on us brother-Ukrainians.
Our enemies will die, as the dew does in the sunshine,
and we, too, brothers, we'll live happily in our land.
We'll not spare either our souls or bodies to get freedom
and we'll prove that we brothers are of Kozak kin.

Slava Ukraine
Flying Crowbar
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I'm not sure that's 'LICO'. Since it's a Russian aircraft, those would be Cyrillic characters, most likely '' (which in a blurry image definitely looks like 'LICO'). I have no idea what that acronym indicates.

The '' character is equivalent to 'TS' in our alphabet; 'C' is equivalent to 'S'; 'O' is the same as 'O'. But knowing how to pronounce the characters still doesn't give me a clue as to what they stand for, so...

ETA: Looks like TA doesn't like the Cyrillic alphabet... What you called 'LI' looks like a Cyrillic character (fourth row, on the right).
SidetrackAg
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GAC06 said:

BoDog said:

Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...


We cannot intercept their ICBM's
Why we cant intercept them?
Rossticus
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CondensedFoggyAggie said:

https://instagr.am/p/CbQNPjYJIo2
Quote:

"I am going home. This is too much for me. I got caught up in the fervor of wanting to help and didn't actually think this through. I will admit it. I am running away. It's just too much for me.

My prior military experience was not like this at all, and I'm glad it's not. The Taliban never bracketed me with artillery and they never shot at us with tanks and aircraft. This is just above my level of fear management.

I feel like a coward. I came here to help, was in combat for bit and now I'm leaving because I just can't get my fear under control. I'm going to get someone killed if I stay here. I just feel so bad about this, man. I just felt like I was always on the verge of a panic attack."

- Western Volunteer. Invasion of Ukraine. March 14th, 2022
I can't say I blame him. This makes it even more harder to describe the incredible bravery of all the Ukrainian defenders, and the foreign fighters who are staying.


Gives greater perspective on the many WW2 vets many of us grew up knowing as fathers, grandfathers, uncles… Those men were forged harder that a coffin nail if they were going to survive years of that type of battle and make it home. Vietnam was isht too, but in a different way.
JB!98
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SidetrackAg said:

GAC06 said:

BoDog said:

Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...


We cannot intercept their ICBM's
Why we cant intercept them?
My understanding is that we can intercept some of them, just not enough to make a real difference. I don't know if our ICBM interceptors have been overstated or understated in terms of effectiveness and quantity. I think our biggest effect would be in hitting their subs before they can get to a launch depth. It wouldn't be enough, but it would be something.
Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
74OA
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txags92
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JB!98 said:

SidetrackAg said:

GAC06 said:

BoDog said:

Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...


We cannot intercept their ICBM's
Why we cant intercept them?
My understanding is that we can intercept some of them, just not enough to make a real difference. I don't know if our ICBM interceptors have been overstated or understated in terms of effectiveness and quantity. I think our biggest effect would be in hitting their subs before they can get to a launch depth. It wouldn't be enough, but it would be something.
The ABM treaty significantly limited what could be developed and tested for several decades. I think we pulled out of it fully or at least partially so that we could develop the missile technologies needed to stop a rogue actor like NK from launching at us. We can apply that same technology towards stopping Russian ICBMs, but it is a matter of sheer numbers that will overwhelm our systems in a MAD scenario. We probably can shoot down a significant number in a limited engagement, but in a full launch scenario, we just can't launch and control enough missiles quickly enough to get them all (or even a significant portion of them). The Russians have had ABM systems around Moscow for many years, which is at least in part why we developed sea and air launched Tomahawk cruise missile systems that could evade their ABMs
GAC06
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SidetrackAg said:

GAC06 said:

BoDog said:

Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...


We cannot intercept their ICBM's
Why we cant intercept them?


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground-Based_Midcourse_Defense

44 missiles won't make much of a difference against an all out launch
wildmen09
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CondensedFoggyAggie said:

SpreadsheetAg said:

Rossticus said:


I spent 2 weeks in Romania back in 2016.... I can tell you the Romanians (every one I spoke to) would sooner nuke their own country than let the Russians take it over again.
This.

You think we hate Putin and Xi? Pretty much every country neighboring Russia and China hold a deep hatred against them, bordering on xenophobic. Even if the culture and language is similar.


1000%

I did the NATO Officer course back in 2017 and the hatred by the Baltic officers for Russia was unparalleled to anything I have ever seen.
lb3
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Thanks. Searching Cyrillic acronyms with a western keyboard is near impossible.
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