SidetrackAg said:

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GAC06 said:

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BoDog said:

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Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...

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We cannot intercept their ICBM's

---

Why we cant intercept them?

---

There's generally three zones you can intercept an ICBM. Remember, these missiles go on parabolic arcs from one side of the world, use the stars as GPS, and then land on the other side of the world.

So your options are:
-Chase it out of its silo and hit it before it gets to space. This requires incredibly close counter capabilities.
-Send hunter rockets up into space to take them out as they travel through space
-Send close range defense missiles up to strike the reentry vehicles as a last minute defense

Now. There are 5000 nukes on each side. Nuclear counter strike doctrine is if you fire one, you fire them all. So if Russia thinks they're going to receive all of America's nukes. They're going to send all of there's out first now.

These defenses aren't nearly prevalent enough to stop all of these ICBMs.

And it doesn't even get into Russia's latest 'hand from the grave' where it is meant to be a submarine launched torpedo that will cause a tsunami on a coastal city.

There is no winning. If you don't die initially, or within a few months of radiation sickness, expect China to make a territorial push as the west is smoldering.

wildmen09 said:

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CondensedFoggyAggie said:

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SpreadsheetAg said:

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Rossticus said:

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By these numbers, #NATO currently has a combined power from member states of 315,500 troops as part of their Eastern Flank defense amid the #Russia - #Ukraine war. From these troops 120k are Polish. pic.twitter.com/GkbYmX4pkr

— The Intel Hub (@The_IntelHub) March 17, 2022

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I spent 2 weeks in Romania back in 2016.... I can tell you the Romanians (every one I spoke to) would sooner nuke their own country than let the Russians take it over again.

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This.

You think we hate Putin and Xi? Pretty much every country neighboring Russia and China hold a deep hatred against them, bordering on xenophobic. Even if the culture and language is similar.

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1000%

I did the NATO Officer course back in 2017 and the hatred by the Baltic officers for Russia was unparalleled to anything I have ever seen.

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Concur!
From my week training with them all in 1997 in Czech Republic.
Probably the only time in my military career where beer & wine was served at breakfast. After reading about the shelling thats probably why.

one MEEN Ag said:

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SidetrackAg said:

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GAC06 said:

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BoDog said:

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Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...

---

We cannot intercept their ICBM's

---

Why we cant intercept them?

---

There's generally three zones you can intercept an ICBM. Remember, these missiles go on parabolic arcs from one side of the world, use the stars as GPS, and then land on the other side of the world.

So your options are:
-Chase it out of its silo and hit it before it gets to space. This requires incredibly close counter capabilities.
-Send hunter rockets up into space to take them out as they travel through space
-Send close range defense missiles up to strike the reentry vehicles as a last minute defense

Now. There are 5000 nukes on each side. Nuclear counter strike doctrine is if you fire one, you fire them all. So if Russia thinks they're going to receive all of America's nukes. They're going to send all of there's out first now.

These defenses aren't nearly prevalent enough to stop all of these ICBMs.

And it doesn't even get into Russia's latest 'hand from the grave' where it is meant to be a submarine launched torpedo that will cause a tsunami on a coastal city.

There is no winning. If you don't die initially, or within a few months of radiation sickness, expect China to make a territorial push as the west is smoldering.

---

F that, we don't need to send Russia all 5,000 of our ICBMs. Tell the Chinese they're coming with us, one way or another!

Let's see if they don't talk Putin into standing down on that *****

74OA said:

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LMCane said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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G Martin 87 said:

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Get Off My Lawn said:

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And on the "going after Moscow" topic - projecting power is far harder than defending your home. Americans are terrible with our doctrine, but one piece gets drilled in: before assaulting you want a minimum advantage of 3:1. And as we see in Ukraine - advanced anti-armor weapons has exacerbated the asymmetrical capabilities of a defense in depth.

TLDR: Europe marching to Moscow is a fever dream.

---

Europe marching to Moscow has happened twice before, so that's not really a fever dream from the Russian POV. Europe successfully marching on Moscow, yeah, that's the fever dream.

---

Both times previously the start was in Poland. Moscow is actually pretty far west in Russia Proper, especially if you are going through a friendly or participating Ukraine. This is all hypothetical though, because while NATO, for example, has a large collective numeric and qualitative advantage in front line units, any such an effort would be telegraphed by the necessary logistical preparations and if any attack can't be sustained to keep defenses off balance and unable to coordinate, the defenses will eventually dig in somewhere in depth at critical points preventing maneuver warfare and inflict serious losses. Just as has happened in Ukraine.

There is only so much "reach" for a breakthrough and exploitation, even with a very modern army, before it must pull up and reorganize and resupply. Critical parts of Russia may just be too deep to consider that. Russia is running into these exact problems in their own attack in Ukraine. They could only push so far before they had to halt to reorganize and resupply and that wasn't nearly as far into Ukraine fast enough to prevent a solid defense from forming in key strategic locations.

And all that is not to mention that if Russia perceived a real threat to an internal attack that might defeat it, they would almost certainly employ tactical nukes on battlefield formations in desperation.

---

Why are the last two posts discussing Poland?
When the Baltics are now part of NATO, which is what Putin cries about all the time?



NATO forces would be staged well to the east of Poland's borders- and it's a literal straight line to Moscow

---

Yep, same staging area and same
straight 1000-mile line Napoleon and Hitler used.

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Napoleon and Hitlers army were horse-drawn and mostly on foot. Totally different scenario. It's a moot point though because nukes would be flying by the time a land army got close to Moscow…or Warsaw

74OA said:

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LMCane said:

---

MouthBQ98 said:

---

G Martin 87 said:

---

Get Off My Lawn said:

---

And on the "going after Moscow" topic - projecting power is far harder than defending your home. Americans are terrible with our doctrine, but one piece gets drilled in: before assaulting you want a minimum advantage of 3:1. And as we see in Ukraine - advanced anti-armor weapons has exacerbated the asymmetrical capabilities of a defense in depth.

TLDR: Europe marching to Moscow is a fever dream.

---

Europe marching to Moscow has happened twice before, so that's not really a fever dream from the Russian POV. Europe successfully marching on Moscow, yeah, that's the fever dream.

---

Both times previously the start was in Poland. Moscow is actually pretty far west in Russia Proper, especially if you are going through a friendly or participating Ukraine. This is all hypothetical though, because while NATO, for example, has a large collective numeric and qualitative advantage in front line units, any such an effort would be telegraphed by the necessary logistical preparations and if any attack can't be sustained to keep defenses off balance and unable to coordinate, the defenses will eventually dig in somewhere in depth at critical points preventing maneuver warfare and inflict serious losses. Just as has happened in Ukraine.

There is only so much "reach" for a breakthrough and exploitation, even with a very modern army, before it must pull up and reorganize and resupply. Critical parts of Russia may just be too deep to consider that. Russia is running into these exact problems in their own attack in Ukraine. They could only push so far before they had to halt to reorganize and resupply and that wasn't nearly as far into Ukraine fast enough to prevent a solid defense from forming in key strategic locations.

And all that is not to mention that if Russia perceived a real threat to an internal attack that might defeat it, they would almost certainly employ tactical nukes on battlefield formations in desperation.

---

Why are the last two posts discussing Poland?
When the Baltics are now part of NATO, which is what Putin cries about all the time?



NATO forces would be staged well to the east of Poland's borders- and it's a literal straight line to Moscow

---

Yep, same staging area and same straight 1000-mile line Napoleon and Hitler used.

---

Strategically worked out well for the Germans and French in the past.... so why the hell not NATO? Right?

SPSAg05 said:

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⚡️Russian command post was destroyed at Kherson Airport in Chornobaivka - adviser to @ZelenskyyUa's Office Oleksiy Arestovych

He says the commander of Russia's 8th army and several more generals could have been eliminated.

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) March 18, 2022

Keep stacking that brass! Slava Ukraini!

---

I'd hold off on that. I can't find anything solid to back it up yet.

doctorAg13 said:

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No way they agree to disarmament.

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The past month indicated that Ukraine isn't armed enough.

aezmvp said:

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SPSAg05 said:

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⚡️Russian command post was destroyed at Kherson Airport in Chornobaivka - adviser to @ZelenskyyUa's Office Oleksiy Arestovych

He says the commander of Russia's 8th army and several more generals could have been eliminated.

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) March 18, 2022

Keep stacking that brass! Slava Ukraini!

---

I'd hold off on that. I can't find anything solid to back it up yet.

---

Russians need to use something equivalent to Zoom. Ha.

Russia plans to transfer troops from Armenia.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia will deploy troops from the 102nd Russian military base in Armenia to support its offensive against Ukraine.

— OSINT UK (@jon96179496) March 18, 2022

#Russia is building earthen ramparts to protect military positions northwest of #Kyiv, according to satellite images.
The new satellite images show protective shafts around #Russian military equipment in the Ozer area and the Antonov air base. 1/1 pic.twitter.com/Ka1nbfOFCc

— EMPR.MEDIA (@EuromaidanPR) March 18, 2022

Russians digging in. Perhaps to wait for reinforcements from the East, Georgia, Syria, Armenia, etc?

one MEEN Ag said:

---

SidetrackAg said:

---

GAC06 said:

---

BoDog said:

---

Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...

---

We cannot intercept their ICBM's

---

Why we cant intercept them?

---

There's generally three zones you can intercept an ICBM. Remember, these missiles go on parabolic arcs from one side of the world, use the stars as GPS, and then land on the other side of the world.

So your options are:
-Chase it out of its silo and hit it before it gets to space. This requires incredibly close counter capabilities.
-Send hunter rockets up into space to take them out as they travel through space
-Send close range defense missiles up to strike the reentry vehicles as a last minute defense

Now. There are 5000 nukes on each side. Nuclear counter strike doctrine is if you fire one, you fire them all. So if Russia thinks they're going to receive all of America's nukes. They're going to send all of there's out first now.

These defenses aren't nearly prevalent enough to stop all of these ICBMs.

And it doesn't even get into Russia's latest 'hand from the grave' where it is meant to be a submarine launched torpedo that will cause a tsunami on a coastal city.

There is no winning. If you don't die initially, or within a few months of radiation sickness, expect China to make a territorial push as the west is smoldering.

---

Well that's a great read to start the weekend

SidetrackAg said:

---

one MEEN Ag said:

---

SidetrackAg said:

---

GAC06 said:

---

BoDog said:

---

Ok, another dumb question.... Is it a forgone conclusion that Russian nukes can reach our shores without being intercepted? I realize if they do indeed have these supersonic missiles then forget it, we are toast but I am talking about conventional intercontinental nukes...

---

We cannot intercept their ICBM's

---

Why we cant intercept them?

---

There's generally three zones you can intercept an ICBM. Remember, these missiles go on parabolic arcs from one side of the world, use the stars as GPS, and then land on the other side of the world.

So your options are:
-Chase it out of its silo and hit it before it gets to space. This requires incredibly close counter capabilities.
-Send hunter rockets up into space to take them out as they travel through space
-Send close range defense missiles up to strike the reentry vehicles as a last minute defense

Now. There are 5000 nukes on each side. Nuclear counter strike doctrine is if you fire one, you fire them all. So if Russia thinks they're going to receive all of America's nukes. They're going to send all of there's out first now.

These defenses aren't nearly prevalent enough to stop all of these ICBMs.

And it doesn't even get into Russia's latest 'hand from the grave' where it is meant to be a submarine launched torpedo that will cause a tsunami on a coastal city.

There is no winning. If you don't die initially, or within a few months of radiation sickness, expect China to make a territorial push as the west is smoldering.

---

Well that's a great read to start the weekend

---

They also have MIRVs

Also, good luck stopping sub launched missiles, the launch warning and time to impact can be minutes.

Yeah, stuff like switchblade will make short work of vehicles like that. They'd be better off just trying to hide them

Agthatbuilds said:

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Ukrayna

Harkov.

Bir bebek enkazın altından çıkarıldı. pic.twitter.com/PHdl2bszIG

— Furkan (@Furkan38276857) March 18, 2022

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God that breaks my heart. Ffs

TheEternalPessimist said:

---

74OA said:

---

LMCane said:

---

MouthBQ98 said:

---

G Martin 87 said:

---

Get Off My Lawn said:

---

And on the "going after Moscow" topic - projecting power is far harder than defending your home. Americans are terrible with our doctrine, but one piece gets drilled in: before assaulting you want a minimum advantage of 3:1. And as we see in Ukraine - advanced anti-armor weapons has exacerbated the asymmetrical capabilities of a defense in depth.

TLDR: Europe marching to Moscow is a fever dream.

---

Europe marching to Moscow has happened twice before, so that's not really a fever dream from the Russian POV. Europe successfully marching on Moscow, yeah, that's the fever dream.

---

Both times previously the start was in Poland. Moscow is actually pretty far west in Russia Proper, especially if you are going through a friendly or participating Ukraine. This is all hypothetical though, because while NATO, for example, has a large collective numeric and qualitative advantage in front line units, any such an effort would be telegraphed by the necessary logistical preparations and if any attack can't be sustained to keep defenses off balance and unable to coordinate, the defenses will eventually dig in somewhere in depth at critical points preventing maneuver warfare and inflict serious losses. Just as has happened in Ukraine.

There is only so much "reach" for a breakthrough and exploitation, even with a very modern army, before it must pull up and reorganize and resupply. Critical parts of Russia may just be too deep to consider that. Russia is running into these exact problems in their own attack in Ukraine. They could only push so far before they had to halt to reorganize and resupply and that wasn't nearly as far into Ukraine fast enough to prevent a solid defense from forming in key strategic locations.

And all that is not to mention that if Russia perceived a real threat to an internal attack that might defeat it, they would almost certainly employ tactical nukes on battlefield formations in desperation.

---

Why are the last two posts discussing Poland?
When the Baltics are now part of NATO, which is what Putin cries about all the time?



NATO forces would be staged well to the east of Poland's borders- and it's a literal straight line to Moscow

---

Yep, same staging area and same straight 1000-mile line Napoleon and Hitler used.

---

Strategically worked out well for the Germans and French in the past.... so why the hell not NATO? Right?

---

Without the railroads fully operational and under NATO control there is no way a land Army could move fast over that distance.

In the 1950s the US Army bought about a dozen specially configured locomotives, designated MRS-1, that had the huge price tag of $500k each. They were optimized for cold weather operations and could be adapted to run on any guage rail and to use inside or outside flange wheels (not sure why the in-out flange is important). They were to be used to pull the heavy trains during the counter offensive to push Soviet invaders out of Germany and France and across the Eastern Bloc countries. By the early 1970s somebody decided that they weren't worth the trouble to maintain and they got sold off. I believe that at least one or two are still in use in Alaska on narrow guage lines.

2/ There are many ways that a a peacekeeping response can accidentally escalate due to miscalculation. As we have seen humanitarian corridors have been repeatedly targeted with both indirect and direct fire.

— The Intel Hub (@The_IntelHub) March 18, 2022

This is what Russian wars look like. Soldiers vs Defenseless Civilians

Pouring fire into civilian structures, a nasheed with some fairly “interesting” connections, yep, definitely Kadyrov’s troops. https://t.co/SJdSsUYGma

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 18, 2022

Rossticus said:

---

Russia plans to transfer troops from Armenia.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia will deploy troops from the 102nd Russian military base in Armenia to support its offensive against Ukraine.

— OSINT UK (@jon96179496) March 18, 2022

---

More meat for the grinder, eh?

A photo report from a #Swedish media about the debris removal at the site of a rocket attack on the 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade in #Mykolaiv. According to journalists, at least 40 people were killed. pic.twitter.com/agfaZibOH7

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) March 18, 2022

Rossticus said:

---

Russia plans to transfer troops from Armenia.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia will deploy troops from the 102nd Russian military base in Armenia to support its offensive against Ukraine.

— OSINT UK (@jon96179496) March 18, 2022

---

Didn't this get reported several days ago and then there were reports of Armenian troops refusing to go?

I this these are Russians stationed in Armenia, not Armenians.