***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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RebelE Infantry
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 7:29a, 3/17/22
AG
Red Pear Realty said:


This whole Mariupol theater thing is weird. Local Telegram chats were talking about Azov using the theater as a headquarters while holding civilians inside 4 or 5 days ago. Even mentioned plans for a false flag (not saying it was or wasn't, but not beyond Azov given their track record). No way to tell what happened either way, but just using a bit of logic it seems like a whole lot of trouble for the Russians to seed that story ahead of time only to bomb civilians for no reason and directly counter to their strategic interests.

Russians With Attitude on Twitter has several fairly objective tweets about the situation if you care to check them out.

No matter what I hope the reports of civilians surviving is true above all else.
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wildmen09
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In reply to mickeyrig06sq3 • 7:36a, 3/17/22
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mickeyrig06sq3 said:
VaultingChemist said:


I thought that the Ukes would do this with the help of U.S. intel.

We probably are. The ability to get the SIM/IMEI, as well as geolocation calculation ain't off the shelf products.


Anyone know where this was clipped from? Believe it or not we have a HUGE issue of this in the Army and Air Force where in a training environment our comms will go down and people will result to cell phones immediately. We know the consequences but don't train properly. Trying to fix this culture and this war may accelerate this change.
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MeatDr
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7:43a, 3/17/22
AG
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GarryowenAg
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7:56a, 3/17/22
AG


Edit: Added info

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wangus12
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 7:56a, 3/17/22
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Red Pear Realty said:
That seems to good to be true based on the pictures of the theatre. If there were people in there, its bound to have produced some casualties.
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GarryowenAg
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8:03a, 3/17/22
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GarryowenAg
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8:05a, 3/17/22
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I think this was posted earlier, but they had a follow up "Duh" statement.

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BD88
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8:06a, 3/17/22
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PJYoung
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8:06a, 3/17/22
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Man oh man. Watch this entire video.

A conscript's mother at a protest in Moscow.

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oldcrow91
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In reply to VaultingChemist • 8:08a, 3/17/22
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VaultingChemist said:


I thought that the Ukes would do this with the help of U.S. intel.



Loose lips means losing this Russian weakness.
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wildmen09
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In reply to BD88 • 8:09a, 3/17/22
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BD88 said:



What does this mean?
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 8:14a, 3/17/22
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RebelE Infantry said:
Red Pear Realty said:


This whole Mariupol theater thing is weird. Local Telegram chats were talking about Azov using the theater as a headquarters while holding civilians inside 4 or 5 days ago. Even mentioned plans for a false flag (not saying it was or wasn't, but not beyond Azov given their track record). No way to tell what happened either way, but just using a bit of logic it seems like a whole lot of trouble for the Russians to seed that story ahead of time only to bomb civilians for no reason and directly counter to their strategic interests.

Russians With Attitude on Twitter has several fairly objective tweets about the situation if you care to check them out.

No matter what I hope the reports of civilians surviving is true above all else.


Is it also plausible to mistake the visiting and or bringing aid to those in the shelter, by Azov soldiers as an HQ?

I am sure these soldiers have family sheltered there.

Amen if they all or most survived, which proves it was a strong shelter and God is good.
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AlaskanAg99
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In reply to wildmen09 • 8:14a, 3/17/22
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Probably bringing in other troops to fight.
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Ulysses90
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In reply to B-1 83 • 8:15a, 3/17/22
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They almost certainly can. It uses the same 152mm projos and propellant as the 152mm 2S3 that the UA already uses. The MSTA has more advanced methods of digital fire control but I am certain that it still has a PanTel and can be laid and aimed manually with an aiming circle and collimator.
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2wealfth Man
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In reply to wildmen09 • 8:15a, 3/17/22
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wildmen09 said:
BD88 said:



What does this mean?
shopping spree?
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ttu_85
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In reply to wildmen09 • 8:16a, 3/17/22
wildmen09 said:
BD88 said:



What does this mean?
Oligarchs getting out of Dodge because: and use your own imagination here.

1. Someone popped Putin and his cronies are getting out.
2. Putin lost it and is looking for fall guys. This is a Russian Tradition see Stalin's Purges.
3. its just a coincidence.
4. Russian oil types working a deal to sell oil on the open market through ME dealers
5. Vacation time
6. Putin has lost it and has ordered a nightmare

Take your pick ?
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Not a Bot
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8:18a, 3/17/22
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https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/30506-convoy-of-russian-government-jets-takes-off-from-moscow

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Jetpilot86
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In reply to mickeyrig06sq3 • 8:25a, 3/17/22
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Good luck with that. They are like dealing with the mafia.
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PJYoung
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In reply to wildmen09 • 8:27a, 3/17/22
AG
wildmen09 said:
BD88 said:



What does this mean?


It's a nuclear readiness test or the real thing. Either way they left the transponders on to rattle NATO.

Putin continually escalates. It is what he does.

We would be hard pressed to respond to tactical nukes.

Edit: the presidential command post plane is in there, i.e. Airforce One
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neAGle96
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In reply to wildmen09 • 8:29a, 3/17/22
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wildmen09 said:
BD88 said:



What does this mean?


Oligarchs getting out of Dodge after Putin's remarks yesterday?
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RebelE Infantry
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 8:32a, 3/17/22
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JFABNRGR said:
RebelE Infantry said:
Red Pear Realty said:


This whole Mariupol theater thing is weird. Local Telegram chats were talking about Azov using the theater as a headquarters while holding civilians inside 4 or 5 days ago. Even mentioned plans for a false flag (not saying it was or wasn't, but not beyond Azov given their track record). No way to tell what happened either way, but just using a bit of logic it seems like a whole lot of trouble for the Russians to seed that story ahead of time only to bomb civilians for no reason and directly counter to their strategic interests.

Russians With Attitude on Twitter has several fairly objective tweets about the situation if you care to check them out.

No matter what I hope the reports of civilians surviving is true above all else.


Is it also plausible to mistake the visiting and or bringing aid to those in the shelter, by Azov soldiers as an HQ?

I am sure these soldiers have family sheltered there.

Amen if they all or most survived, which proves it was a strong shelter and God is good.


It definitely is plausible. I say the whole thing is weird because all we actually know for sure is that someone blew up the building. The rest is lost in the fog of dodgy information and propaganda from every which way.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to PJYoung • 8:32a, 3/17/22
AG
Quote:
Edit: the presidential command post plane is in there, i.e. Airforce One
I assume that is exclusively used by Putin?
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PJYoung
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In reply to aggiehawg • 8:34a, 3/17/22
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aggiehawg said:
Quote:
Edit: the presidential command post plane is in there, i.e. Airforce One
I assume that is exclusively used by Putin?


This is information from twitter but it seemed legit to me. Who knows.
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MouthBQ98
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8:34a, 3/17/22
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Picking up mercenaries?

Bringing a large contingent to discuss oil exporting with the ME basically laundering it by mixing it into their exports?

Secret OPEC conference?
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BD88
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8:35a, 3/17/22
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P.U.T.U
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8:48a, 3/17/22
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Russia was smart in their development of martars around WW2 and they sized theirs 1mm larger than the USA's. We have an 81mm and they have an 82mm.

If Syria is sending 40,000 more than Israel will make them pay for that. Syria's military is only thought to be around 130,000 strong and they have reportedly already sent some. Sending a third of your troops to fight a war that is not yours is not a smart move. As stated the Syrian soldiers may see this as a way to get into Europe after crossing the Uke border.

Or Ukraine is trying to get more foreign help
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ABATTBQ11
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8:51a, 3/17/22
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It seems there was a bomb shelter under the theater. Building may have taken most of the blast, with a lot of people safe-ish below. There is no word on casualties yet, so it is not confirmed there are none, only that there are survivors.


And yes, it is very logical for Russia to seed a story about the building before they bomb it because it is in their strategic interest. They've stalled completely and have resorted to shelling Ukrainian cities on an attempt to break Ukraine's will to fight. This is just another part of that strategy. The alternative is that all of the destruction in Mariupol, Kiev, etc is being committed by the Ukrainians, which makes no sense given their more limited supplies, the fact that they have to live in these cities when this is all said and done, international support is going to come either way since they're the ones who were invaded, and this is basically Russia's MO. "It was being used by Azov," or, "They were just human shields," are the excuses that Russia is using for ALL of their attacks on residential and civilian targets, but the whole damn country isn't an Azov HQ or weapons depot. And the excuse doesn't work when you're launching unguided artillery/rockets and cluster munitions at residential areas.
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PJYoung
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8:52a, 3/17/22
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BD88
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8:56a, 3/17/22
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htxag09
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In reply to MeatDr • 8:58a, 3/17/22
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MeatDr said:
Kind of random, and definitely in the highly unlikely scenario, but what would we do in most of the US if something like this happened? As far as I know, here, in Houston, none of our buildings have bomb shelters or cellars that could act as one to house the public....
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PJYoung
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In reply to htxag09 • 9:01a, 3/17/22
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htxag09 said:
MeatDr said:
Kind of random, and definitely in the highly unlikely scenario, but what would we do in most of the US if something like this happened? As far as I know, here, in Houston, none of our buildings have bomb shelters or cellars that could act as one to house the public....

One of the consequences of the cold war is that Ukraine is 'blessed' to have a bunch of nuclear grade bomb shelters.

Their underground public transportation venues were built to withstand a nuclear attack and are crazy deep.
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PJYoung
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9:02a, 3/17/22
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PJYoung
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9:02a, 3/17/22
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aezmvp
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In reply to htxag09 • 9:03a, 3/17/22
htxag09 said:
MeatDr said:
Kind of random, and definitely in the highly unlikely scenario, but what would we do in most of the US if something like this happened? As far as I know, here, in Houston, none of our buildings have bomb shelters or cellars that could act as one to house the public....
Duck and cover.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to PJYoung • 9:05a, 3/17/22
AG
PJYoung said:
htxag09 said:
MeatDr said:
Kind of random, and definitely in the highly unlikely scenario, but what would we do in most of the US if something like this happened? As far as I know, here, in Houston, none of our buildings have bomb shelters or cellars that could act as one to house the public....

One of the consequences of the cold war is that Ukraine is 'blessed' to have a bunch of nuclear grade bomb shelters.

Their underground public transportation venues were built to withstand a nuclear attack and are crazy deep.


The junior high I went to had a fallout/bomb shelter beneath it. They're here in the US too of you know where to look.
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