***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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PJYoung
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In reply to TRM • 1:56p, 3/9/22
AG
TRM said:
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GAC06
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In reply to Rossticus • 2:02p, 3/9/22
AG
Rossticus said:


Starstreak is nasty

" After launch, the missile accelerates to more than Mach 4, making it the fastest short-range surface-to-air missile. It then launches three laser beam-riding submunitions, increasing the likelihood of a successful hit on the target."

4+ mile range is greater than other MANPADs.

Flares are useless as countermeasures.
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McInnis 03
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2:05p, 3/9/22
AG
EDIT: I didn't notice Rossticus posted this above. Apologies.


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Rossticus
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In reply to GAC06 • 2:06p, 3/9/22
Ukraine needs as much nasty as the west is willing to give. And then some. Russia isn't there to negotiate.
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PJYoung
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In reply to Eliminatus • 2:07p, 3/9/22
AG
Eliminatus said:
TRM said:
16k to 20k and now 40k.
Putin has united the world!

Have we reached a point where the Ukes are growing stronger as the Russians are getting weaker? I have suspected for a few days now that Russia lost it's peak power already. At least with the forces committed. Still not seeing large troop movements in Russia. Only old equipment being trickled in. If that is not true please someone let me know.

If we take the above presumption, I actually wonder if a true siege of Kiev would actually hurt the Russians more than the Ukes will at this point. I know it is an extremely bold thought, but from my macro view with the info I currently have, I don't think the Russians have the capacity to even take Kiev. Wreck it, sure. But I believe Russia will wreck itself as well. I think the Ukes are holding a lot of cards close to their chest and if a true battle of Kiev starts, it will be all out. Judging from the fights in the south and the troop capacity we suspect is in the north....I just don't see it happening as I sit here now. A LOT of caveats in there of course but my kneejerk thoughts are exactly that.

From what I can tell, it still seems like Russia is not taking this seriously in terms of commitment as a nation and that absolutely blows my mind. I may be wrong in that assumption, but man, it sure doesn't seem like it. Or they just can't sustain a modern war at the pace they need to, which is even more damning somehow.

This war is wild from an objective and academic POV.

Kyiv has a crazy deep and extensive underground network that connects the metro area. Urban warfare there would be hell for the Russians.





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IslanderAg04
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In reply to BD88 • 2:11p, 3/9/22
BD88 said:
Putin is such a ****ing liar!



Everything that goes on has his approval. EVERYTHING!


I used to work with a developer from Ukraine. Dude was old school, and smart as hell when it came to assembly and hardware engineering. Literally built drivers. He would always say, not Russian, Ukraine, Russia KGB, KGB Russia. Never trust Russia. Putin is completely lying on this.
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jabberwalkie09
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In reply to GAC06 • 2:12p, 3/9/22
AG
GAC06 said:
Rossticus said:


Starstreak is nasty

" After launch, the missile accelerates to more than Mach 4, making it the fastest short-range surface-to-air missile. It then launches three laser beam-riding submunitions, increasing the likelihood of a successful hit on the target."

4+ mile range is greater than other MANPADs.

Flares are useless as countermeasures.
Ukraine is becoming a munitions testing ground for the west by the looks of it. Not that the Ukrainians can't use the equipment, but the west is going to get quite a bit of field data from all this.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to Rossticus • 2:17p, 3/9/22
AG
Rossticus said:
be more effective if the news release stated they have already hit the field...maybe keep a few aircraft on the ground until they really are deployed.
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marcel ledbetter
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In reply to ATX_AG_08 • 2:19p, 3/9/22
ATX_AG_08 said:


From the comments " knock…knock…whose there?…slava…slava who?" haha
He switches to German for some reason and and says something like, Good morning Russian pig soldiers!
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Rossticus
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 2:20p, 3/9/22
JFABNRGR said:
Rossticus said:
be more effective if the news release stated they have already hit the field...maybe keep a few aircraft on the ground until they really are deployed.


My guess is that if it's reported then that's pretty close to being the case.
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PJYoung
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2:20p, 3/9/22
AG



Quote:
"Bad morale, lack of manpower" is a huge issue on the Russian side. "They're calling in reservists, offering money and contracts to people to go fight and, as you've seen, relying on conscripts."

"It's not a popular war in the Russian military from what we've seen. People are terrorized, threatened with lawsuits if they decline to fight."

Anti-armor missiles are "the superstars right now." Ukraine still has "decent air defenses, especially short- to mid- range."

One reason why Russian fixed-wing aircraft are being shot down is that "cloudy weather is forcing them to fly at lower altitudes."

"Russia doesn't have the power to keep going like this for very long. Time isn't on their side, nor do they have a recipe for winning. They can't win hearts and minds, that's for sure."

In two weeks, Russia has used up "a lot of their precision-guided missiles, a valuable commodity in their arsenal."

"As long as the Western resupply channels remain open and Ukraine still fields a decent number of fighters, then they're OK."
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Eliminatus
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In reply to jabberwalkie09 • 2:23p, 3/9/22
AG
jabberwalkie09 said:
GAC06 said:
Rossticus said:


Starstreak is nasty

" After launch, the missile accelerates to more than Mach 4, making it the fastest short-range surface-to-air missile. It then launches three laser beam-riding submunitions, increasing the likelihood of a successful hit on the target."

4+ mile range is greater than other MANPADs.

Flares are useless as countermeasures.
Ukraine is becoming a munitions testing ground for the west by the looks of it. Not that the Ukrainians can't use the equipment, but the west is going to get quite a bit of field data from all this.


Starstreak has been around for quite a while. Though not sure if truly combat tested.

From that perspective you are absolutely correct. The west is devouring every single byte of data on this war possible. You don't get to see Russian armored columns going to war very often, much less see it turn into open season on them.

EVERYBODY is learning from this war, except the Russians it seems like.

I suspect there is going to be some doctrinal shift in at least a few militaries moving forward. Single soldier anti armor weapons have always been deadly but there have never been used this extensively before. I mentioned it many pages ago but there is a constantly ongoing and raging debate on the validity of main battle tanks going into the future. They were called land battleships long ago and every year it seems they are inching closer and closer to those very ships and their ultimate outcome.

Armor may catch up again but still, would it be worth it? Either way, anti armor is definitely king at the moment in Ukraine and everyone knows it now. I am extremely interested in how this shakes out for Western militaries once this is all over with. The USMC already has gotten rid of all of its MBT assets and that was a HUGE deal when it happened but hindsight may yet prove that it was a damn good idea after all.

As a former anti armor guy, this is all extremely fascinating for me. Probably gonna start a thread on it soon on the MIL board.
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TRM
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2:28p, 3/9/22
AG

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74OA
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2:35p, 3/9/22
AG
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TRM
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2:39p, 3/9/22
AG


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jetescamilla
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In reply to Eliminatus • 2:43p, 3/9/22
AG
Eliminatus said:
TRM said:
16k to 20k and now 40k.
Putin has united the world!

Have we reached a point where the Ukes are growing stronger as the Russians are getting weaker? I have suspected for a few days now that Russia lost it's peak power already. At least with the forces committed. Still not seeing large troop movements in Russia. Only old equipment being trickled in. If that is not true please someone let me know.

If we take the above presumption, I actually wonder if a true siege of Kiev would actually hurt the Russians more than the Ukes will at this point. I know it is an extremely bold thought, but from my macro view with the info I currently have, I don't think the Russians have the capacity to even take Kiev. Wreck it, sure. But I believe Russia will wreck itself as well. I think the Ukes are holding a lot of cards close to their chest and if a true battle of Kiev starts, it will be all out. Judging from the fights in the south and the troop capacity we suspect is in the north....I just don't see it happening as I sit here now. A LOT of caveats in there of course but my kneejerk thoughts are exactly that.

From what I can tell, it still seems like Russia is not taking this seriously in terms of commitment as a nation and that absolutely blows my mind. I may be wrong in that assumption, but man, it sure doesn't seem like it. Or they just can't sustain a modern war at the pace they need to, which is even more damning somehow.

This war is wild from an objective and academic POV.
I agree, at what cost is Putin going continue his vendetta? I've been pondering that we're in a long game to let Russia/Putin exhaust its resources then US/NATO strike to eliminate Putin and his corruption to "free Russia" from the dictatorship he's created. My concern with letting him continue down this path is that he'll eventually reach a point of no return with a wasted military, loss of political support, loss of his financial institution, etc that he may reach an "end game" scenario and become unhinged to the point of unprovoked nuclear warfare.

If Putin continues to the point of exhaustion like this he needs to be taken out and it'll take more than just Ukraine to do it.
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Irish 2.0
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2:50p, 3/9/22
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one MEEN Ag
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In reply to jetescamilla • 2:53p, 3/9/22
AG
Nuclear war prevents the west from ever going on the offense into Moscow.

If you ever want to storm moscow, you'd basically have to starve Russia long enough that their missile defenses (the number one thing that will always get money) falls apart. If you look at North Korea, a regime can last an extremely long time if they can suppress their people hard enough.

Obama kicked off a nuclear weapons design refresh and I'm sure Putin followed suit. I'm sure every piece of 1950s-60s technology on the warhead is getting updated. Also, a lot of money goes into computer simulation of corrosion/storage to prove to the executive branch that our nuclear stockpile will work when someone hits the button. The Russian's technology on the battlefield are leading people to think that the same style of corruption might be plaguing their nuclear stockpile. But whose actually wants to find out?
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Ag In Ok
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 2:54p, 3/9/22
AG
They are likely holding to see if they indeed can take Mariupol. With that in hand minus Kiev, maybe they would offer an end to hostilities. They get the port, direct land link to Donbas, and the Ukes lose a steel making city.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to one MEEN Ag • 2:56p, 3/9/22
AG
Quote:
The Russian's technology on the battlefield are leading people to think that the same style of corruption might be plaguing their nuclear stockpile. But whose actually wants to find out?
There are many ways to find that out. Get proof that a general with knowledge pocketed tens of millions of dollars instead of testing and modernizing weapons and flip him.
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Irish 2.0
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2:56p, 3/9/22
Wow...Seriously staff??? A post with a tweet saying the Pentagon doesn't support the transfer of the MIGs isn't strategic????
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Charpie
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 2:59p, 3/9/22
AG
tread lightly, friend.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 3:00p, 3/9/22
Irish 2.0 said:



There's absolutely no incentive for them to compromise
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Red Pear Realty
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3:01p, 3/9/22
Sponsor
AG
Sponsor Message: We Split Commissions. Full Service Agents in Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio. Red Pear Realty
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PJYoung
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3:04p, 3/9/22
AG
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javajaws
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In reply to marcel ledbetter • 3:08p, 3/9/22
AG
marcel ledbetter said:
ATX_AG_08 said:


From the comments " knock…knock…whose there?…slava…slava who?" haha
He switches to German for some reason and and says something like, Good morning Russian pig soldiers!
Yeah I caught that as well..."Guten morgen". Maybe this is the Ukrainian being funny since Putin is attempting to "de-nazify" Ukraine?
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one MEEN Ag
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In reply to aggiehawg • 3:10p, 3/9/22
AG
aggiehawg said:
Quote:
The Russian's technology on the battlefield are leading people to think that the same style of corruption might be plaguing their nuclear stockpile. But whose actually wants to find out?
There are many ways to find that out. Get proof that a general with knowledge pocketed tens of millions of dollars instead of testing and modernizing weapons and flip him.
When I said, 'who actually wants to find out' I mean who actually wants to watch the Russians hit the Go button, and it fissile out on 30% of their nukes.

But yes, I'm sure there's whole intelligence divisions related to understanding the actual nuclear capabilities of the enemy. But corruption in engineering isn't ever someone just pocketing money and not delivering things. Its cutting material quality, reducing design envelopes, not investing in robust capabilities or testing on initial delivery. The Russians have a history of having incredible technical expertise, but not having the manufacturing, materials, or maintenance to keep up with the west. Hell, even america has issues with that. The steel on nuclear subs had faked testing data for decades that showed it was better performing in extremely cold temperatures than it actually was. That woman who was in charge of faking those tests should have been thrown in jail.

If Russia's got a nuclear weapon thats reading instructions off of a 50 year old magnetic tape there's a good chance its degraded. The corruption is in how well has Russia updated on paper according to actuality. I'm sure there's a couple russians hiding out in flyover country who gave america that information in exchange for citizenship.
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aezmvp
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In reply to javajaws • 3:15p, 3/9/22
javajaws said:
marcel ledbetter said:
ATX_AG_08 said:


From the comments " knock…knock…whose there?…slava…slava who?" haha
He switches to German for some reason and and says something like, Good morning Russian pig soldiers!
Yeah I caught that as well..."Guten morgen". Maybe this is the Ukrainian being funny since Putin is attempting to "de-nazify" Ukraine?
Well if you wanted to freak some guys out that would probably do it.
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Decay
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 3:15p, 3/9/22
AG
Red Pear Realty said:

Any EOD guys want to explain what just happened there? What's with the water and the towel?
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Bag
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In reply to PJYoung • 3:18p, 3/9/22
AG
PJYoung said:
TRM said:
seems a bit hard to believe, tbh, propaganda most likely
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tk111
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In reply to Decay • 3:20p, 3/9/22
AG
Decay said:
Red Pear Realty said:

Any EOD guys want to explain what just happened there? What's with the water and the towel?
Wow I'd like to know too, because this is the s*** our guys do covered head to toe in giant suits of armor ...while operating a remote controlled robot from 100 yards away
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Talon2DSO
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In reply to GAC06 • 3:23p, 3/9/22
AG
GAC06 said:
Rossticus said:


Starstreak is nasty

" After launch, the missile accelerates to more than Mach 4, making it the fastest short-range surface-to-air missile. It then launches three laser beam-riding submunitions, increasing the likelihood of a successful hit on the target."

4+ mile range is greater than other MANPADs.

Flares are useless as countermeasures.


Yikes....thats a C130 killer. Does the user have to communicate to anyone electronically prior to launch or are they deployed and autonomous?
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TheHulkster
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3:23p, 3/9/22
AG
Nexta and Kyiv Independent seem to me to be the most slanted and suspect of sources. I get why, but it's hard to know what's really going on as an observer who's hungry for info.
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92AG10
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3:24p, 3/9/22
AG
Sparks and explosives are a bad combination.
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92AG10
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In reply to 92AG10 • 3:25p, 3/9/22
AG
DP
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