aggiehawg said:

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I also have to wonder if the Belarusian generals consider the Russian military doctrine and tactics are crap and don't want to kill their troops following them?

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Eh I think that might be putting too Western an attitude on them tbh hawg. Traditionally they don't think or care much for the condition of conscript soldiers. If they are having near mutinies, it must be really bad. For the record I don't know that that is true. It really reads like some propaganda, so I'm reserving judgement on that until we get more solid and widespread evidence.

More likely the officers are worried about troops turning the guns on officers and surrendering. Just imho.

74OA said:

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LMCane said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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LMCane said:

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Get Off My Lawn said:

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LMCane said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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Once again, controlling many roads doesn’t really mean controlling territory. This is what the RU occupation looks like now. They drive around, kill, shell - but don’t control.#StandWithUkraine️ #putinisfailing pic.twitter.com/GWZUYdXX15

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) March 7, 2022

---

that is Ukrainian propaganda. the Russians don't only "control" roads, they are encircling and capturing major Uke cities such as Mariupol and much of Kharkiv is completely surrounded and under siege.

Important to look dispassionately at the real situation to analyze it free from propaganda from either the Rus or the Ukes.

the reality is that the Russian southern front is making very good progress and that the Russians are in control of about 25% of the country already.

---

There's a reason that you win Chess by capturing the king. The idea that control of the roads isn't important ignores the capture-the-flag nature of warfare. You don't need the hearts of farmers in a remote town in order to win - you need to get to (and control) the critical political and utility infrastructure. Biden doesn't care if rednecks hate him as long as they don't storm DC. Putin won't care what Ukrainians think of him as long as they aren't an impediment to his siege.

---

Getoffmylawn is correct.

aside from political factors, actual military movements are guided much more by the available road networks and the ability to move your forces on the flanks or rear of the enemy. the USA never controlled every city in France, or in Iraq but was still able to defeat the Werhmacht. because they were able to use a road network to outflank every defensive position and trap enemy detachments in a pocket.

the russians are obviously trying to do the same thing by moving up the Dnieper river valley, cutting off the eastern front from the rest of the country and surrounding Kyiv from the south.

it's really a battle now for which side can hang on over the next 6 weeks and which side cracks first -from either being surrounded on the battlefield, or having their economy and supply logistics capabilities completely fractured.

---

That's a good plan until the urban Ukrainian people fought back. Now Russia is going for encirclements which is going to require taking smaller communities and dealing with much longer fronts.

---

my fear is that the northern prong is basically remaining in place to "hold" the attention and forces of the Ukes, while it's really the southern prong that is going to run roughshod over the center of the country and link up with the Kyiv Z battle group.

pretty much how the First Army in Normandy "held" the Waffen SS and German front, while the 3rd Army sprinted around and behind the front and then spread out to the west into central France. the ukes need to ensure they are able to mount limited counter attacks to cut off the heads of those advancing columns on the Mariupol/Odessa/Kyiv axis along the Dneiper

---

Perhaps why the Ukrainians are launching spoiling attacks into the flank of the main Russian southern advance.

---

Would make sense. They have to keep the Russians from closing that "cauldron" (Russian doctrinal term for strategic encirclement) open to the west and leave a route open to Kiev at all costs.

RebelE Infantry said:

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74OA said:

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LMCane said:

---

Agthatbuilds said:

---

LMCane said:

---

Get Off My Lawn said:

---

LMCane said:

---

VaultingChemist said:

---

Once again, controlling many roads doesn’t really mean controlling territory. This is what the RU occupation looks like now. They drive around, kill, shell - but don’t control.#StandWithUkraine️ #putinisfailing pic.twitter.com/GWZUYdXX15

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) March 7, 2022

---

that is Ukrainian propaganda. the Russians don't only "control" roads, they are encircling and capturing major Uke cities such as Mariupol and much of Kharkiv is completely surrounded and under siege.

Important to look dispassionately at the real situation to analyze it free from propaganda from either the Rus or the Ukes.

the reality is that the Russian southern front is making very good progress and that the Russians are in control of about 25% of the country already.

---

There's a reason that you win Chess by capturing the king. The idea that control of the roads isn't important ignores the capture-the-flag nature of warfare. You don't need the hearts of farmers in a remote town in order to win - you need to get to (and control) the critical political and utility infrastructure. Biden doesn't care if rednecks hate him as long as they don't storm DC. Putin won't care what Ukrainians think of him as long as they aren't an impediment to his siege.

---

Getoffmylawn is correct.

aside from political factors, actual military movements are guided much more by the available road networks and the ability to move your forces on the flanks or rear of the enemy. the USA never controlled every city in France, or in Iraq but was still able to defeat the Werhmacht. because they were able to use a road network to outflank every defensive position and trap enemy detachments in a pocket.

the russians are obviously trying to do the same thing by moving up the Dnieper river valley, cutting off the eastern front from the rest of the country and surrounding Kyiv from the south.

it's really a battle now for which side can hang on over the next 6 weeks and which side cracks first -from either being surrounded on the battlefield, or having their economy and supply logistics capabilities completely fractured.

---

That's a good plan until the urban Ukrainian people fought back. Now Russia is going for encirclements which is going to require taking smaller communities and dealing with much longer fronts.

---

my fear is that the northern prong is basically remaining in place to "hold" the attention and forces of the Ukes, while it's really the southern prong that is going to run roughshod over the center of the country and link up with the Kyiv Z battle group.

pretty much how the First Army in Normandy "held" the Waffen SS and German front, while the 3rd Army sprinted around and behind the front and then spread out to the west into central France. the ukes need to ensure they are able to mount limited counter attacks to cut off the heads of those advancing columns on the Mariupol/Odessa/Kyiv axis along the Dneiper

---

Perhaps why the Ukrainians are launching spoiling attacks into the flank of the main Russian southern advance.

---

Would make sense. They have to keep the Russians from closing that "cauldron" (Russian doctrinal term for strategic encirclement) open to the west and leave a route open to Kiev at all costs.

---

Agreed. If the Russians can take Mariupol and finally, finally get past Kharkiv then I think you see a race to Dnipro to try and encircle those forces and another force race up to Kyiv on the eastern flank of the river. I would bet, without any evidence to back it up right now, that every town along the way is setting up hedgehogs, serpentines and all kinds of goodies. I'd be ready to mine the hell out of any part of those roads if I were Uke HQ.

aezmvp said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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74OA said:

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LMCane said:

---

Agthatbuilds said:

---

LMCane said:

---

Get Off My Lawn said:

---

LMCane said:

---

VaultingChemist said:

---

Once again, controlling many roads doesn’t really mean controlling territory. This is what the RU occupation looks like now. They drive around, kill, shell - but don’t control.#StandWithUkraine️ #putinisfailing pic.twitter.com/GWZUYdXX15

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) March 7, 2022

---

that is Ukrainian propaganda. the Russians don't only "control" roads, they are encircling and capturing major Uke cities such as Mariupol and much of Kharkiv is completely surrounded and under siege.

Important to look dispassionately at the real situation to analyze it free from propaganda from either the Rus or the Ukes.

the reality is that the Russian southern front is making very good progress and that the Russians are in control of about 25% of the country already.

---

There's a reason that you win Chess by capturing the king. The idea that control of the roads isn't important ignores the capture-the-flag nature of warfare. You don't need the hearts of farmers in a remote town in order to win - you need to get to (and control) the critical political and utility infrastructure. Biden doesn't care if rednecks hate him as long as they don't storm DC. Putin won't care what Ukrainians think of him as long as they aren't an impediment to his siege.

---

Getoffmylawn is correct.

aside from political factors, actual military movements are guided much more by the available road networks and the ability to move your forces on the flanks or rear of the enemy. the USA never controlled every city in France, or in Iraq but was still able to defeat the Werhmacht. because they were able to use a road network to outflank every defensive position and trap enemy detachments in a pocket.

the russians are obviously trying to do the same thing by moving up the Dnieper river valley, cutting off the eastern front from the rest of the country and surrounding Kyiv from the south.

it's really a battle now for which side can hang on over the next 6 weeks and which side cracks first -from either being surrounded on the battlefield, or having their economy and supply logistics capabilities completely fractured.

---

That's a good plan until the urban Ukrainian people fought back. Now Russia is going for encirclements which is going to require taking smaller communities and dealing with much longer fronts.

---

my fear is that the northern prong is basically remaining in place to "hold" the attention and forces of the Ukes, while it's really the southern prong that is going to run roughshod over the center of the country and link up with the Kyiv Z battle group.

pretty much how the First Army in Normandy "held" the Waffen SS and German front, while the 3rd Army sprinted around and behind the front and then spread out to the west into central France. the ukes need to ensure they are able to mount limited counter attacks to cut off the heads of those advancing columns on the Mariupol/Odessa/Kyiv axis along the Dneiper

---

Perhaps why the Ukrainians are launching spoiling attacks into the flank of the main Russian southern advance.

---

Would make sense. They have to keep the Russians from closing that "cauldron" (Russian doctrinal term for strategic encirclement) open to the west and leave a route open to Kiev at all costs.

---

Agreed. If the Russians can take Mariupol and finally, finally get past Kharkiv then I think you see a race to Dnipro to try and encircle those forces and another force race up to Kyiv on the eastern flank of the river. I would bet, without any evidence to back it up right now, that every town along the way is setting up hedgehogs, serpentines and all kinds of goodies. I'd be ready to mine the hell out of any part of those roads if I were Uke HQ.

---

Last week there was a photo and video that came out from a town that had erected a serpentine barrier and had some other improvised barriers. I think hedgehogs were one, but the other looked like a rebar spike designed to get stuck in a tank track. Iirc this town was south of Kyiv and west of the Dneiper.

aezmvp said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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74OA said:

---

LMCane said:

---

Agthatbuilds said:

---

LMCane said:

---

Get Off My Lawn said:

---

LMCane said:

---

VaultingChemist said:

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Once again, controlling many roads doesn’t really mean controlling territory. This is what the RU occupation looks like now. They drive around, kill, shell - but don’t control.#StandWithUkraine️ #putinisfailing pic.twitter.com/GWZUYdXX15

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) March 7, 2022

---

that is Ukrainian propaganda. the Russians don't only "control" roads, they are encircling and capturing major Uke cities such as Mariupol and much of Kharkiv is completely surrounded and under siege.

Important to look dispassionately at the real situation to analyze it free from propaganda from either the Rus or the Ukes.

the reality is that the Russian southern front is making very good progress and that the Russians are in control of about 25% of the country already.

---

There's a reason that you win Chess by capturing the king. The idea that control of the roads isn't important ignores the capture-the-flag nature of warfare. You don't need the hearts of farmers in a remote town in order to win - you need to get to (and control) the critical political and utility infrastructure. Biden doesn't care if rednecks hate him as long as they don't storm DC. Putin won't care what Ukrainians think of him as long as they aren't an impediment to his siege.

---

Getoffmylawn is correct.

aside from political factors, actual military movements are guided much more by the available road networks and the ability to move your forces on the flanks or rear of the enemy. the USA never controlled every city in France, or in Iraq but was still able to defeat the Werhmacht. because they were able to use a road network to outflank every defensive position and trap enemy detachments in a pocket.

the russians are obviously trying to do the same thing by moving up the Dnieper river valley, cutting off the eastern front from the rest of the country and surrounding Kyiv from the south.

it's really a battle now for which side can hang on over the next 6 weeks and which side cracks first -from either being surrounded on the battlefield, or having their economy and supply logistics capabilities completely fractured.

---

That's a good plan until the urban Ukrainian people fought back. Now Russia is going for encirclements which is going to require taking smaller communities and dealing with much longer fronts.

---

my fear is that the northern prong is basically remaining in place to "hold" the attention and forces of the Ukes, while it's really the southern prong that is going to run roughshod over the center of the country and link up with the Kyiv Z battle group.

pretty much how the First Army in Normandy "held" the Waffen SS and German front, while the 3rd Army sprinted around and behind the front and then spread out to the west into central France. the ukes need to ensure they are able to mount limited counter attacks to cut off the heads of those advancing columns on the Mariupol/Odessa/Kyiv axis along the Dneiper

---

Perhaps why the Ukrainians are launching spoiling attacks into the flank of the main Russian southern advance.

---

Would make sense. They have to keep the Russians from closing that "cauldron" (Russian doctrinal term for strategic encirclement) open to the west and leave a route open to Kiev at all costs.

---

Agreed. If the Russians can take Mariupol and finally, finally get past Kharkiv then I think you see a race to Dnipro to try and encircle those forces and another force race up to Kyiv on the eastern flank of the river. I would bet, without any evidence to back it up right now, that every town along the way is setting up hedgehogs, serpentines and all kinds of goodies. I'd be ready to mine the hell out of any part of those roads if I were Uke HQ.

---

Preserving Kharkiv as a thorn in the Russian rear is probably why Ukraine is risking scarce resources to counterattack there, too.

Quote:

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Eh I think that might be putting too Western an attitude on them tbh hawg. Traditionally they don't think or care much for the condition of conscript soldiers.

---

There has been a lot of discussion regarding the Russian tactics of relying on roads almost exclusively in Ukraine.

Their tactics are exactly the same as they were during the Afghan campaign, a country with few useable roads. Instead they went to the air campaign with helicopters, which then were easily taken out courtesy of American provided SAMs.

Maybe the Belarusian generals have studied that after action report and noted the same flaw being repeated is my question.

Does anybody know the general relationship between the Ukraine and Belarus populations? Any pre- or post-soviet ethnic relationships or friendships that might be getting in the way of convincing the young Belarus population to not want to be a part of invading Ukraine? We know that the leader of Belarus is a Russian puppet that doesn't have the support of his people and they have been forced to live under his leadership by Moscow. So is it unreasonable to believe that the Belarus population may have a sympathy for what is happening in Ukraine and not want to be used as patsies for the Russians to put another free people under their boots?

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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Eh I think that might be putting too Western an attitude on them tbh hawg. Traditionally they don't think or care much for the condition of conscript soldiers.

---

There has been a lot of discussion regarding the Russian tactics of relying on roads almost exclusively in Ukraine.

Their tactics are exactly the same as they were during the Afghan campaign, a country with few useable roads. Instead they went to the air campaign with helicopters, which then were easily taken out courtesy of American provided SAMs.

Maybe the Belarusian generals have studied that after action report and noted the same flaw being repeated is my question.

---

It's a good observation. It's possible that their high command internally decided that as soon as the coup de main failed and there was no fait accompli then the proposition is a losing one and there is no way to win. That's entirely possible. If that's the case I'm certain that the GRU and SVR know about it. That would be a crazy scenario and Putin would have to do something about it.

txags92 said:

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Does anybody know the general relationship between the Ukraine and Belarus populations? Any pre- or post-soviet ethnic relationships or friendships that might be getting in the way of convincing the young Belarus population to not want to be a part of invading Ukraine? We know that the leader of Belarus is a Russian puppet that doesn't have the support of his people and they have been forced to live under his leadership by Moscow. So is it unreasonable to believe that the Belarus population may have a sympathy for what is happening in Ukraine and not want to be used as patsies for the Russians to put another free people under their boots?

---

Because of the old ties of the Soviet Union, families that had relatives in the various Soviet republics, suddenly found themselves living in new countries separated from each other on Dec 26, 1991. So, essentially, that are enormous ties that bind ALL of the former Soviet republics to each other and all of them to Russia.

My best friend has family that lives and are citizens in Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus, Latvia, Uzbekistan, and Russia itself.

In each of the former Soviet republics, you will find people who support or oppose the Putin regime. Even in the Ukraine among some ethnic Ukrainians --- generally people who have nostalgia for the old days of the Soviet empire which they perceived as having strength and greater world relevance.......

......... however..... you are more likely to encounter Russians in Russia that disagree with Putin's regime and it's actions than you are to find pro-Russian sentiment in the other former Soviet states.

Hope this helps!

The whole region was settled by the Kievan Rus people and then invaded many times over. More recently, for hundreds of years, Ukraine was a turf battle between Poland and the Grand Duchy of Muscovy with the local Cossacks caught in the middle, along with appearances by the Vikings, Ottomans, Lithuanians, Mongols, Tartars, Soviets and others. Belarus ("Little Rus") shares a very similar history and people groups. I imagine there are many family ties across borders.

Map help



https://t.co/gVLFOwq6oV

What does Russian "control" of terrain in #Ukraine mean & what are its limits?

Our team @TheStudyofWar & @criticalthreats is mapping Russian advances & publishing these daily.

This thread will unpack our methodology & explain how to read these maps.

1/ pic.twitter.com/gVLFOwq6oV

— Jennifer Cafarella (@JennyCafarella) March 6, 2022

aggiehawg said:

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I also have to wonder if the Belarusian generals consider the Russian military doctrine and tactics are crap and don't want to kill their troops following them?

---

I am sure part of it is that Belarus is seeing the meat grinder going on at Kyiv.

but probably more important for Lukashenko is the financial sanctions he would face.

dictators generally don't care about the cannon fodder, but they care about their yachts being seized.

LMCane said:

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aggiehawg said:

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I also have to wonder if the Belarusian generals consider the Russian military doctrine and tactics are crap and don't want to kill their troops following them?

---

I am sure part of it is that Belarus is seeing the meat grinder going on at Kyiv.

but probably more important for Lukashenko is the financial sanctions he would face.

dictators generally don't care about the cannon fodder, but they care about their yachts being seized.

---

Belarus and Lukashenko are already under sanctions, though.

wiki

74OA said:

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aezmvp said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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74OA said:

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LMCane said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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LMCane said:

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Get Off My Lawn said:

---

LMCane said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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Once again, controlling many roads doesn’t really mean controlling territory. This is what the RU occupation looks like now. They drive around, kill, shell - but don’t control.#StandWithUkraine️ #putinisfailing pic.twitter.com/GWZUYdXX15

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) March 7, 2022

---

that is Ukrainian propaganda. the Russians don't only "control" roads, they are encircling and capturing major Uke cities such as Mariupol and much of Kharkiv is completely surrounded and under siege.

Important to look dispassionately at the real situation to analyze it free from propaganda from either the Rus or the Ukes.

the reality is that the Russian southern front is making very good progress and that the Russians are in control of about 25% of the country already.

---

There's a reason that you win Chess by capturing the king. The idea that control of the roads isn't important ignores the capture-the-flag nature of warfare. You don't need the hearts of farmers in a remote town in order to win - you need to get to (and control) the critical political and utility infrastructure. Biden doesn't care if rednecks hate him as long as they don't storm DC. Putin won't care what Ukrainians think of him as long as they aren't an impediment to his siege.

---

Getoffmylawn is correct.

aside from political factors, actual military movements are guided much more by the available road networks and the ability to move your forces on the flanks or rear of the enemy. the USA never controlled every city in France, or in Iraq but was still able to defeat the Werhmacht. because they were able to use a road network to outflank every defensive position and trap enemy detachments in a pocket.

the russians are obviously trying to do the same thing by moving up the Dnieper river valley, cutting off the eastern front from the rest of the country and surrounding Kyiv from the south.

it's really a battle now for which side can hang on over the next 6 weeks and which side cracks first -from either being surrounded on the battlefield, or having their economy and supply logistics capabilities completely fractured.

---

That's a good plan until the urban Ukrainian people fought back. Now Russia is going for encirclements which is going to require taking smaller communities and dealing with much longer fronts.

---

my fear is that the northern prong is basically remaining in place to "hold" the attention and forces of the Ukes, while it's really the southern prong that is going to run roughshod over the center of the country and link up with the Kyiv Z battle group.

pretty much how the First Army in Normandy "held" the Waffen SS and German front, while the 3rd Army sprinted around and behind the front and then spread out to the west into central France. the ukes need to ensure they are able to mount limited counter attacks to cut off the heads of those advancing columns on the Mariupol/Odessa/Kyiv axis along the Dneiper

---

Perhaps why the Ukrainians are launching spoiling attacks into the flank of the main Russian southern advance.

---

Would make sense. They have to keep the Russians from closing that "cauldron" (Russian doctrinal term for strategic encirclement) open to the west and leave a route open to Kiev at all costs.

---

Agreed. If the Russians can take Mariupol and finally, finally get past Kharkiv then I think you see a race to Dnipro to try and encircle those forces and another force race up to Kyiv on the eastern flank of the river. I would bet, without any evidence to back it up right now, that every town along the way is setting up hedgehogs, serpentines and all kinds of goodies. I'd be ready to mine the hell out of any part of those roads if I were Uke HQ.

---

Preserving Kharkiv as a thorn in the Russian rear is probably why Ukraine is risking scarce resources to counterattack there, too.

---

the Ukes need to start blowing the bridges across the Dnieper very soon.

that way they can channel the Rus forces onto either the west or the east bank, and destroy them in detail without the Russians being able to support each other from the other side.

that is one of the major problems Ulysses Grant faced at Vicksburg for 6 months.

aggiehawg said:

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LMCane said:

---

aggiehawg said:

---

I also have to wonder if the Belarusian generals consider the Russian military doctrine and tactics are crap and don't want to kill their troops following them?

---

I am sure part of it is that Belarus is seeing the meat grinder going on at Kyiv.

but probably more important for Lukashenko is the financial sanctions he would face.

dictators generally don't care about the cannon fodder, but they care about their yachts being seized.

---

Belarus and Lukashenko are already under sanctions, though.

wiki

---

Putin and Russia was previously under sanctions before last month as well.

many sanctions over Crimea and Donbas.

revvie said:

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Have you ever looked at Google earth photos of southern Ukraine. Mostly wheat fields with some scrub trees along th roads. No place to hide for shoot and scoot tactics that they have been emplying in north. As far as I can tell of the area northwest of Kyiv they destroyed the locks between the Irpin River and the Kyiv Reservoir which has a water elevationof 99 meters which is 5-6 meters higher than the Irpin River terrace which flooded a considerable part of any entrance to the city past the bridge that they destoyed making the Russians take a more westerly path to enter and through suburbs west of Kyiv.

---

As an agronomist, I'd love to see the soils info for that area. Many of those formerly glaciated areas can have perched water tables this time of year that make cross country travel by heavy machinery impossible. As you eluded, not much area to hide even if the targets are stuck on roads.

ATX_AG_08 said:

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Russian columns being destroyed - Part 1 #UkraineRussianWar #UkraineUnderAttaсk #UkraineWar pic.twitter.com/5Mhm65wT9g

— Ukraine War Videos (@Ukraine_WarVids) March 7, 2022

---

what's really amazing is that it is the UKES who are conducting significant close air support missions and aerial interdiction missions, and not the Russians.

incredible.

I had a similar Garmin on my bass boat 20 years ago. It made me laugh because I ditched it because of inaccuracy.

That appears to be anti tank missiles, not air. You can see leaves flying when the launches happen

Probably Stugna-P

https://militaryleak.com/2022/01/04/ukrainian-new-stugna-p-anti-tank-guided-missile-gets-direct-hit-on-pro-russia-separatists/?amp

Putin's War - The Ukraine Daily Briefing Map for March 7th.

The second picture shows only Russian advances from the last 24 hours.

Russian gains on the Zaporizhzhia axis, with very slight gains on both sides of Kyiv and near Nova Odessa. Ukrainian gains near Kharkiv. pic.twitter.com/FV2cQ0S7vw

— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) March 7, 2022

Captain Positivity said:

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Was a great position. Now that building is going to get leveled.

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If they were fighting NATO yes. With the Russians? Who knows.

GAC06 said:

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That appears to be anti tank missiles, not air. You can see leaves flying when the launches happen

Probably Stugna-P

https://militaryleak.com/2022/01/04/ukrainian-new-stugna-p-anti-tank-guided-missile-gets-direct-hit-on-pro-russia-separatists/?amp

---

Was wondering what that was! Thanks!

Perched water table is a term I have not heard in many years. I am a retired geologist. I doubt the Russians even cosidered this, however they seem to have less trouble manuvering down south. Was Murray Milford still teaching when you went through, I took one of the courses he taught. Glacial material can create quite a mudpit for heavy equipment.