They're using drones to drop bombs themselves and using drones to correct artillery fire.
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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AFAIK, Russisans do not use our GPS system natively. You can see what appears to be a Garmin unit above the instrumentation on that Fullback (SU-34). This isn't the first time that they have used commercial units in a theater. I want to say they've used them in Syria as well. We, the US, have restrictions on what can be exported. The commercial versions meet this requirement, but munitions type or units that can function with modification to munitions are controlled by the state department. An export license would be required.aggiehawg said:Can someone confirm this tweet? Is that what is pictured?wtmartinaggie said:
After this is all done, I wonder how much it comes out the the Russians got absolutely smoked on the Cyber battlefield.
There were unconfirmed reports of communications not working, jet navigation/HUD systems offline, and GPS calibration problems causing a great deal of chaos. It makes you wonder if rather than take it offline someone just tweaked things just enough for the russians to walk into a buzzsaw. It would also play into the phenomenon that continues to come out that the Ukrainians seem to be a step ahead of where the Russians will be and when...How much money was stolen from Russia’s military modernization campaign? This is as embarrassing as it is fascinating https://t.co/ZJTSgfhwr3
— Blake Allen (@Blake_Allen13) March 7, 2022
The Russians actually have a similar system named GLONASS but it isn't as accurate as our GPS system. They're working on trying to get it better though. I've put forth the reason that their cruise missile strikes have failed to achieve their objectives is because of the amount of error inherent in the Russian GLONASS. I want to say GPS has an error margin of about a foot where as GLONASS has about a 3 foot error in accuracy.
Edit: What I'm fuzzy on is whether we can deny civilian usage of the system specifically.
Thanks.
Samsung?Teddy Perkins said:Where are the optics?TRM said:group of former of South Korean SOF arrived in Ukrane pic.twitter.com/5tIOv5mYTF
— C4H10FO2P (@markito0171) March 7, 2022
Trump will fix it.
There are reports of Air Combat between Ukrainian and Russian Aircraft over the Capitol city of Kyiv currently, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry is claiming that at least 2 Russian Aircraft have been downed so far in the fighting.
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 7, 2022
but I would argue that footage is from a small civilian drone that one would buy in a big box store here. It appears to be a quad copter, not fixed wing, and small enough to fly during the day and not be seen or heard,TRM said:
They're using drones to drop bombs themselves and using drones to correct artillery fire.
The Turkish drones they're using are very capable but far less expensive than ours. Turkey builds them with off the shelf components and their range is limited to about 150 miles compared to ours which are piloted from Nevada.Bag said:really curious about this. It is almost like they are using run of the mill cheap drones as kind of a periscope, with the added benefit of being able to win the social media war from the footage of the attack. Actually pretty brilliantRed Pear Realty said:#Ukraine: The Ukrainian Army hit another Russian supply convoy near #Kyiv, damaging/destroying a number of supply trucks, appears to be at least 6 that were likely hit. pic.twitter.com/MypX9IwZ40
— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) March 7, 2022
Trump will fix it.
So after going through as much OSINT as I possibly can and reading a lot of articles on this here is my takeaway:Jarrin' Jay said:
Either the RU air force is completely incompetent, they are sacrificing poor pilots with older equipment, or just don't want to lose some planes and so are relying on ground forces to clear things up, but the lack of RU air force activity is curios and telling.
Still can't believe this whole thing didn't kick off with a 24-48 hour attack with 1000s of sorties to knock out UK C&C, air defense systems, airfields and UK air force.
Does not bode well for RU if they think they can go against NATO like that. If they tried that against a NATO country they would be wiped out on the ground in the first 24 hours.
1) Capture of Russian Anti-Air assets including switched on units probably containing IFF and frequency codes has created a lot of issues.
2) Due to 1) Russians are forced into time consuming but necessary deconfliction process that it is likely is cumbersome and unfamiliar to both some pilots and especially ground forces.
3) Degradation of the commo net makes 2) significantly more difficult.
4) A lack and underperformance of Russian cruise missiles, anti-radiation missiles, precision ordinance (bombs) and Ukraine's 48 hour window to reposition assets away from likely targeting spots has created a space where normal Ukrainian air defense net is still running and aircraft that should have been destroyed on the ground were not.
5) Surge of MANPAD air defense has created an incredibly dangerous air environment for helicopters and strike aircraft especially in Kyiv and West of the Dnieper.
6) Combined with 5 surviving Uke aircraft make Western Ukraine a very difficult air environment as Russian aircraft without external fuel will have little maneuvering time in Western Ukraine.
7) As more and more missions must be carried out with unguided/non-standoff munitions, Russian aircraft will have to come into closer connection with MANPAD equipped infantry and will continue to suffer higher and higher losses.
8) Degradation of transportation networks will place increased demand on fuel, infantry/armored ground units and less room for replacement and maintenance parts for VKS (Russian Air Force).
This seems to be the trajectory. It looks like 36 hours ago they began ordering more sorties including (especially) with more front line SU-25 (close air support) and SU-34 (4th gen multirole) aircraft. It has not gone well.
My suspicion is that the VKS and long range missile groups had an initial set of targets and are now relying on a lot of satellite imagery to pinpoint more long range missile attacks. Their close air support does not seem to be overly well coordinated but we are not getting a lot of video/pictures out of the East/South where a majority of their aircraft were pre-positioned.
Supposition: Something has gone terribly wrong in Belarus for the Russians otherwise they would be flying way more sorties out of these bases.
Anyway my armchair analysis.
Agthatbuilds said:LMCane said:Get Off My Lawn said:There's a reason that you win Chess by capturing the king. The idea that control of the roads isn't important ignores the capture-the-flag nature of warfare. You don't need the hearts of farmers in a remote town in order to win - you need to get to (and control) the critical political and utility infrastructure. Biden doesn't care if rednecks hate him as long as they don't storm DC. Putin won't care what Ukrainians think of him as long as they aren't an impediment to his siege.LMCane said:VaultingChemist said:Once again, controlling many roads doesn’t really mean controlling territory. This is what the RU occupation looks like now. They drive around, kill, shell - but don’t control.#StandWithUkraine️ #putinisfailing pic.twitter.com/GWZUYdXX15
— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) March 7, 2022
that is Ukrainian propaganda. the Russians don't only "control" roads, they are encircling and capturing major Uke cities such as Mariupol and much of Kharkiv is completely surrounded and under siege.
Important to look dispassionately at the real situation to analyze it free from propaganda from either the Rus or the Ukes.
the reality is that the Russian southern front is making very good progress and that the Russians are in control of about 25% of the country already.
Getoffmylawn is correct.
aside from political factors, actual military movements are guided much more by the available road networks and the ability to move your forces on the flanks or rear of the enemy. the USA never controlled every city in France, or in Iraq but was still able to defeat the Werhmacht. because they were able to use a road network to outflank every defensive position and trap enemy detachments in a pocket.
the russians are obviously trying to do the same thing by moving up the Dnieper river valley, cutting off the eastern front from the rest of the country and surrounding Kyiv from the south.
it's really a battle now for which side can hang on over the next 6 weeks and which side cracks first -from either being surrounded on the battlefield, or having their economy and supply logistics capabilities completely fractured.
That's a good plan until the urban Ukrainian people fought back. Now Russia is going for encirclements which is going to require taking smaller communities and dealing with much longer fronts.
my fear is that the northern prong is basically remaining in place to "hold" the attention and forces of the Ukes, while it's really the southern prong that is going to run roughshod over the center of the country and link up with the Kyiv Z battle group.
pretty much how the First Army in Normandy "held" the Waffen SS and German front, while the 3rd Army sprinted around and behind the front and then spread out to the west into central France. the ukes need to ensure they are able to mount limited counter attacks to cut off the heads of those advancing columns on the Mariupol/Odessa/Kyiv axis along the Dneiper
This is, I think, very possible and I hope the Uke command is starting to surge units to cut off any further advances especially on the West side of the Dnieper and those bridges in the middle of the country.LMCane said:Agthatbuilds said:LMCane said:Get Off My Lawn said:There's a reason that you win Chess by capturing the king. The idea that control of the roads isn't important ignores the capture-the-flag nature of warfare. You don't need the hearts of farmers in a remote town in order to win - you need to get to (and control) the critical political and utility infrastructure. Biden doesn't care if rednecks hate him as long as they don't storm DC. Putin won't care what Ukrainians think of him as long as they aren't an impediment to his siege.LMCane said:VaultingChemist said:Once again, controlling many roads doesn’t really mean controlling territory. This is what the RU occupation looks like now. They drive around, kill, shell - but don’t control.#StandWithUkraine️ #putinisfailing pic.twitter.com/GWZUYdXX15
— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) March 7, 2022
that is Ukrainian propaganda. the Russians don't only "control" roads, they are encircling and capturing major Uke cities such as Mariupol and much of Kharkiv is completely surrounded and under siege.
Important to look dispassionately at the real situation to analyze it free from propaganda from either the Rus or the Ukes.
the reality is that the Russian southern front is making very good progress and that the Russians are in control of about 25% of the country already.
Getoffmylawn is correct.
aside from political factors, actual military movements are guided much more by the available road networks and the ability to move your forces on the flanks or rear of the enemy. the USA never controlled every city in France, or in Iraq but was still able to defeat the Werhmacht. because they were able to use a road network to outflank every defensive position and trap enemy detachments in a pocket.
the russians are obviously trying to do the same thing by moving up the Dnieper river valley, cutting off the eastern front from the rest of the country and surrounding Kyiv from the south.
it's really a battle now for which side can hang on over the next 6 weeks and which side cracks first -from either being surrounded on the battlefield, or having their economy and supply logistics capabilities completely fractured.
That's a good plan until the urban Ukrainian people fought back. Now Russia is going for encirclements which is going to require taking smaller communities and dealing with much longer fronts.
my fear is that the northern prong is basically remaining in place to "hold" the attention and forces of the Ukes, while it's really the southern prong that is going to run roughshod over the center of the country and link up with the Kyiv Z battle group.
pretty much how the First Army in Normandy "held" the Waffen SS and German front, while the 3rd Army sprinted around and behind the front and then spread out to the west into central France. the ukes need to ensure they are able to mount limited counter attacks to cut off the heads of those advancing columns on the Mariupol/Odessa/Kyiv axis along the Dneiper
That's a very good point. Any thoughts on what the problem might be?Quote:
Supposition: Something has gone terribly wrong in Belarus for the Russians otherwise they would be flying way more sorties out of these bases.
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Where did you read point #6? I haven't heard anything re: count of available manned fixed wing aircraft.
Edit for update: I think that is a Garmin Etrex. It can use both GPS and GLONASS satellites.
I've never seen this kind of free worldwide advertising for military hardware since the Patriot missiles during the Persian Gulf War back in 1991.techno-ag said:The Turkish drones they're using are very capable but far less expensive than ours. Turkey builds them with off the shelf components and their range is limited to about 150 miles compared to ours which are piloted from Nevada.Bag said:
really curious about this. It is almost like they are using run of the mill cheap drones as kind of a periscope, with the added benefit of being able to win the social media war from the footage of the attack. Actually pretty brilliant
Another batch of Chechen National Guard and SOF units are being sent to Ukraine from the Russian Federation. pic.twitter.com/n49VcB0Zch
— CaucasusWarReport (@Caucasuswar) March 7, 2022
CondensedFoggyAggie said:#Ukraine: The practical implementation of tactics to destroy supplies - a Russian convoy of 6 fuel trucks was destroyed near Pryluky, #Chernihiv Oblast. pic.twitter.com/B8ftEklMl2
— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) March 7, 2022
Good, good.
One of the most dangerous jobs in the world right now - Russian Fuel Truck Driver.
Belarus troops have essentially mutinied refusing to go into Ukraine. One of the top Belarusian Generals resigned over it a few days ago.agent-maroon said:That's a very good point. Any thoughts on what the problem might be?Quote:
Supposition: Something has gone terribly wrong in Belarus for the Russians otherwise they would be flying way more sorties out of these bases.
ETA: There have also been reports of some sabotage of railways there.
Confirmation that SU-34 Red 24 was shot down while trying to drop dumb bombs near Kharkiv. https://t.co/jUbdepaD2Q
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 7, 2022
I mean, it looks like one my Scoutmaster had when we went to Philmont back in the early 2000's. Could be any number. He liked his tech toys, but they only help if you know how to use them. But that does look like it's a file photo if this article is anything to go by:VaultingChemist said:
Not sure what model that is.
https://defence-blog.com/russian-pilots-use-us-made-gps-receives-during-combat-missions-in-syria/
LMCane said:Agthatbuilds said:LMCane said:Get Off My Lawn said:There's a reason that you win Chess by capturing the king. The idea that control of the roads isn't important ignores the capture-the-flag nature of warfare. You don't need the hearts of farmers in a remote town in order to win - you need to get to (and control) the critical political and utility infrastructure. Biden doesn't care if rednecks hate him as long as they don't storm DC. Putin won't care what Ukrainians think of him as long as they aren't an impediment to his siege.LMCane said:VaultingChemist said:Once again, controlling many roads doesn’t really mean controlling territory. This is what the RU occupation looks like now. They drive around, kill, shell - but don’t control.#StandWithUkraine️ #putinisfailing pic.twitter.com/GWZUYdXX15
— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) March 7, 2022
that is Ukrainian propaganda. the Russians don't only "control" roads, they are encircling and capturing major Uke cities such as Mariupol and much of Kharkiv is completely surrounded and under siege.
Important to look dispassionately at the real situation to analyze it free from propaganda from either the Rus or the Ukes.
the reality is that the Russian southern front is making very good progress and that the Russians are in control of about 25% of the country already.
Getoffmylawn is correct.
aside from political factors, actual military movements are guided much more by the available road networks and the ability to move your forces on the flanks or rear of the enemy. the USA never controlled every city in France, or in Iraq but was still able to defeat the Werhmacht. because they were able to use a road network to outflank every defensive position and trap enemy detachments in a pocket.
the russians are obviously trying to do the same thing by moving up the Dnieper river valley, cutting off the eastern front from the rest of the country and surrounding Kyiv from the south.
it's really a battle now for which side can hang on over the next 6 weeks and which side cracks first -from either being surrounded on the battlefield, or having their economy and supply logistics capabilities completely fractured.
That's a good plan until the urban Ukrainian people fought back. Now Russia is going for encirclements which is going to require taking smaller communities and dealing with much longer fronts.
my fear is that the northern prong is basically remaining in place to "hold" the attention and forces of the Ukes, while it's really the southern prong that is going to run roughshod over the center of the country and link up with the Kyiv Z battle group.
pretty much how the First Army in Normandy "held" the Waffen SS and German front, while the 3rd Army sprinted around and behind the front and then spread out to the west into central France. the ukes need to ensure they are able to mount limited counter attacks to cut off the heads of those advancing columns on the Mariupol/Odessa/Kyiv axis along the Dneiper
I think this is exactly correct. They are probably waiting for the southern and Donbas fronts to cut off the UKR troops in the east before pushing down to completely surround kiev.
Eh, maybe not or maybe so…Valtrex11 said:That twitter post confirms nothing.TRM said:Confirmation that SU-34 Red 24 was shot down while trying to drop dumb bombs near Kharkiv. https://t.co/jUbdepaD2Q
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 7, 2022
— SR_71 (@azyakancokkacan) March 7, 2022
US background briefings have indicated repeatedly that the Ukraine retains the majority of it's fixed wing aircraft. Early in the war it was indicated that there was quite a bit of prewar activity at the airbases and available satellite photos show that the cruise missiles seem to have been inaccurate by US/NATO standards. If we believe this then the Ukraine is husbanding their aircraft and probably retains 40-60% of their prewar fixed wing combat aircraft. The range of the Soviet and Russian fighter fleet is well established and is shorter than most NATO aircraft even without refueling. If the Russian aircraft are function in close support and bombing roles the excess weight and greater size may take up those weapon pylons preventing or precluding them from using external fuel tanks making it more likely that they will have less time over the area and less ability to engage in air to air combat maneuvers (also with fewer air to air weapons) during those encounters.Ag In Ok said:
Where did you read point #6? I haven't heard anything re: count of available manned fixed wing aircraft.
The blue buildings have been used by the russians as an fob and hit a few times. One of their helos was also shot down about a klick east.techno-ag said:The Turkish drones they're using are very capable but far less expensive than ours. Turkey builds them with off the shelf components and their range is limited to about 150 miles compared to ours which are piloted from Nevada.Bag said:really curious about this. It is almost like they are using run of the mill cheap drones as kind of a periscope, with the added benefit of being able to win the social media war from the footage of the attack. Actually pretty brilliantRed Pear Realty said:#Ukraine: The Ukrainian Army hit another Russian supply convoy near #Kyiv, damaging/destroying a number of supply trucks, appears to be at least 6 that were likely hit. pic.twitter.com/MypX9IwZ40
— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) March 7, 2022
RebelE Infantry said:LMCane said:Agthatbuilds said:LMCane said:Get Off My Lawn said:There's a reason that you win Chess by capturing the king. The idea that control of the roads isn't important ignores the capture-the-flag nature of warfare. You don't need the hearts of farmers in a remote town in order to win - you need to get to (and control) the critical political and utility infrastructure. Biden doesn't care if rednecks hate him as long as they don't storm DC. Putin won't care what Ukrainians think of him as long as they aren't an impediment to his siege.LMCane said:VaultingChemist said:Once again, controlling many roads doesn’t really mean controlling territory. This is what the RU occupation looks like now. They drive around, kill, shell - but don’t control.#StandWithUkraine️ #putinisfailing pic.twitter.com/GWZUYdXX15
— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) March 7, 2022
that is Ukrainian propaganda. the Russians don't only "control" roads, they are encircling and capturing major Uke cities such as Mariupol and much of Kharkiv is completely surrounded and under siege.
Important to look dispassionately at the real situation to analyze it free from propaganda from either the Rus or the Ukes.
the reality is that the Russian southern front is making very good progress and that the Russians are in control of about 25% of the country already.
Getoffmylawn is correct.
aside from political factors, actual military movements are guided much more by the available road networks and the ability to move your forces on the flanks or rear of the enemy. the USA never controlled every city in France, or in Iraq but was still able to defeat the Werhmacht. because they were able to use a road network to outflank every defensive position and trap enemy detachments in a pocket.
the russians are obviously trying to do the same thing by moving up the Dnieper river valley, cutting off the eastern front from the rest of the country and surrounding Kyiv from the south.
it's really a battle now for which side can hang on over the next 6 weeks and which side cracks first -from either being surrounded on the battlefield, or having their economy and supply logistics capabilities completely fractured.
That's a good plan until the urban Ukrainian people fought back. Now Russia is going for encirclements which is going to require taking smaller communities and dealing with much longer fronts.
my fear is that the northern prong is basically remaining in place to "hold" the attention and forces of the Ukes, while it's really the southern prong that is going to run roughshod over the center of the country and link up with the Kyiv Z battle group.
pretty much how the First Army in Normandy "held" the Waffen SS and German front, while the 3rd Army sprinted around and behind the front and then spread out to the west into central France. the ukes need to ensure they are able to mount limited counter attacks to cut off the heads of those advancing columns on the Mariupol/Odessa/Kyiv axis along the Dneiper
I think this is exactly correct. They are probably waiting for the southern and Donbas fronts to cut off the UKR troops in the east before pushing down to completely surround kiev.
Except they haven't been waiting. They have been attacking repeatedly.
All that to say....... their air force sucks. Pretty planes, but not capable.
We've seen the letter supposedly from the head of the Belarusian armed forces. To me that smacks of rank propaganda. However it is possible that their is great opposition in the rank and file soldiers from joining the war. Morale in the Russian army is supposedly fairly low. Client states, traditionally and historically, on average have a lower morale and lower will to combat than main countries. This isn't always true, but depending on information available there is no reason strategically for Belarus not to have invaded along with Russia and moved troops in Western Ukraine to squeeze or cut off European/NATO resupply efforts. It's very, very odd especially given intelligence about units moving forward, certain areas losing traffic cameras, etc. They SHOULD have invaded. But the Russians SHOULD have invaded about on the timeline the US put out there. It's very confusing and I don't see a good reason for it strategically. If the morale is really as low as it has been claimed then it would be suicidal for front line officers to go forward, Very confusing and unexpected tbh. But much of the Russian execution so far has been haphazard and confusing.agent-maroon said:That's a very good point. Any thoughts on what the problem might be?Quote:
Supposition: Something has gone terribly wrong in Belarus for the Russians otherwise they would be flying way more sorties out of these bases.
Russian MOD released footage of it flying a day after it was shot down. Notice how the video blurs out the number.Valtrex11 said:That twitter post confirms nothing.TRM said:Confirmation that SU-34 Red 24 was shot down while trying to drop dumb bombs near Kharkiv. https://t.co/jUbdepaD2Q
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 7, 2022
This Su-34, serial #24, bombed Syrian cities extensively. It was piloted by Major Krasnoyartsev, who earlier posed for photos with Putin & Assad. Today, while bombing Chernihiv, its flying days ended. The plane is now scrap, its co-pilot dead, & Krasnoyartsev is in custody. pic.twitter.com/S3gqqwEwP3
— Idrees Ahmad (@im_PULSE) March 5, 2022
Russian columns being destroyed - Part 1 #UkraineRussianWar #UkraineUnderAttaсk #UkraineWar pic.twitter.com/5Mhm65wT9g
— Ukraine War Videos (@Ukraine_WarVids) March 7, 2022
I bet Turkey is really regretting buying those S-400's now and getting kicked out of the F-35 program. Guess they're going to have to be happy either F-16's.Jarrin' Jay said:
All that to say....... their air force sucks. Pretty planes, but not capable.
GAC06 said:RebelE Infantry said:LMCane said:Agthatbuilds said:LMCane said:Get Off My Lawn said:There's a reason that you win Chess by capturing the king. The idea that control of the roads isn't important ignores the capture-the-flag nature of warfare. You don't need the hearts of farmers in a remote town in order to win - you need to get to (and control) the critical political and utility infrastructure. Biden doesn't care if rednecks hate him as long as they don't storm DC. Putin won't care what Ukrainians think of him as long as they aren't an impediment to his siege.LMCane said:VaultingChemist said:Once again, controlling many roads doesn’t really mean controlling territory. This is what the RU occupation looks like now. They drive around, kill, shell - but don’t control.#StandWithUkraine️ #putinisfailing pic.twitter.com/GWZUYdXX15
— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) March 7, 2022
that is Ukrainian propaganda. the Russians don't only "control" roads, they are encircling and capturing major Uke cities such as Mariupol and much of Kharkiv is completely surrounded and under siege.
Important to look dispassionately at the real situation to analyze it free from propaganda from either the Rus or the Ukes.
the reality is that the Russian southern front is making very good progress and that the Russians are in control of about 25% of the country already.
Getoffmylawn is correct.
aside from political factors, actual military movements are guided much more by the available road networks and the ability to move your forces on the flanks or rear of the enemy. the USA never controlled every city in France, or in Iraq but was still able to defeat the Werhmacht. because they were able to use a road network to outflank every defensive position and trap enemy detachments in a pocket.
the russians are obviously trying to do the same thing by moving up the Dnieper river valley, cutting off the eastern front from the rest of the country and surrounding Kyiv from the south.
it's really a battle now for which side can hang on over the next 6 weeks and which side cracks first -from either being surrounded on the battlefield, or having their economy and supply logistics capabilities completely fractured.
That's a good plan until the urban Ukrainian people fought back. Now Russia is going for encirclements which is going to require taking smaller communities and dealing with much longer fronts.
my fear is that the northern prong is basically remaining in place to "hold" the attention and forces of the Ukes, while it's really the southern prong that is going to run roughshod over the center of the country and link up with the Kyiv Z battle group.
pretty much how the First Army in Normandy "held" the Waffen SS and German front, while the 3rd Army sprinted around and behind the front and then spread out to the west into central France. the ukes need to ensure they are able to mount limited counter attacks to cut off the heads of those advancing columns on the Mariupol/Odessa/Kyiv axis along the Dneiper
I think this is exactly correct. They are probably waiting for the southern and Donbas fronts to cut off the UKR troops in the east before pushing down to completely surround kiev.
Except they haven't been waiting. They have been attacking repeatedly.
This is true, but I'm not sure that these are attacks in force or probing attacks. They may be holding off on a full force attack until they're assured that no UKR reinforcements can make a run for it from the east. Very well could be wrong but it would make sense to me.
More specifics on the claims of aircraft loss by Russia.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/07/world/ukraine-russia-war
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/07/world/ukraine-russia-war
Quote:
. . .
Ukrainian jets and an antiaircraft missile shot down two Russian airplanes over the city of Kyiv and in a nearby area, the commander of the Ukrainian military said in a statement on Monday evening.
Several large explosions were heard in central Kyiv after an air-raid siren sounded, but it was not immediately possible to confirm the downing of Russian airplanes.
Western governments have said Ukraine's air defense systems are still operating 12 days into the war and that most of its air force is intact. Valery Zaluzhny, the Ukrainian Army commander, said one Russian plane was shot down over the city at 8:30 p.m. and that a second was shot down in aerial combat near the capital.
. . .
Perhaps why the Ukrainians are launching spoiling attacks into the flank of the main Russian southern advance.LMCane said:Agthatbuilds said:LMCane said:Get Off My Lawn said:There's a reason that you win Chess by capturing the king. The idea that control of the roads isn't important ignores the capture-the-flag nature of warfare. You don't need the hearts of farmers in a remote town in order to win - you need to get to (and control) the critical political and utility infrastructure. Biden doesn't care if rednecks hate him as long as they don't storm DC. Putin won't care what Ukrainians think of him as long as they aren't an impediment to his siege.LMCane said:VaultingChemist said:Once again, controlling many roads doesn’t really mean controlling territory. This is what the RU occupation looks like now. They drive around, kill, shell - but don’t control.#StandWithUkraine️ #putinisfailing pic.twitter.com/GWZUYdXX15
— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) March 7, 2022
that is Ukrainian propaganda. the Russians don't only "control" roads, they are encircling and capturing major Uke cities such as Mariupol and much of Kharkiv is completely surrounded and under siege.
Important to look dispassionately at the real situation to analyze it free from propaganda from either the Rus or the Ukes.
the reality is that the Russian southern front is making very good progress and that the Russians are in control of about 25% of the country already.
Getoffmylawn is correct.
aside from political factors, actual military movements are guided much more by the available road networks and the ability to move your forces on the flanks or rear of the enemy. the USA never controlled every city in France, or in Iraq but was still able to defeat the Werhmacht. because they were able to use a road network to outflank every defensive position and trap enemy detachments in a pocket.
the russians are obviously trying to do the same thing by moving up the Dnieper river valley, cutting off the eastern front from the rest of the country and surrounding Kyiv from the south.
it's really a battle now for which side can hang on over the next 6 weeks and which side cracks first -from either being surrounded on the battlefield, or having their economy and supply logistics capabilities completely fractured.
That's a good plan until the urban Ukrainian people fought back. Now Russia is going for encirclements which is going to require taking smaller communities and dealing with much longer fronts.
my fear is that the northern prong is basically remaining in place to "hold" the attention and forces of the Ukes, while it's really the southern prong that is going to run roughshod over the center of the country and link up with the Kyiv Z battle group.
pretty much how the First Army in Normandy "held" the Waffen SS and German front, while the 3rd Army sprinted around and behind the front and then spread out to the west into central France. the ukes need to ensure they are able to mount limited counter attacks to cut off the heads of those advancing columns on the Mariupol/Odessa/Kyiv axis along the Dneiper
I also have to wonder if the Belarusian generals consider the Russian military doctrine and tactics are crap and don't want to kill their troops following them?
I think it's fair to say the US/NATO or even the Chinese would kick their ass. The IFF being captured right away was catastrophic. The failure to degrade Ukrainian assets on the ground a huge mistake.Jarrin' Jay said:
All that to say....... their air force sucks. Pretty planes, but not capable.
I wonder just what their weapon stocks were and how capable their mid grade officer corps is at planning an air war. It's very, very odd. I would expect the Chinese PLA will be implementing new deconfliction training in the next 6 months to a year. At a guess.
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