Kenneth_2003 said:

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HTownAg98 said:

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There's been a lot of talk as to why the Russians have been able to make better progress in the south because it's drier and they aren't just restricted to the roads. How far north does this "dry line" extend? Does it run all the way to the south side of Kyiv, or does it stop somewhere, and Russian troops will be committed to the roads, just like they are in the north? Seems like you'd want to use that natural chokepoint to make a stand in the south.

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More than just "wet or dry" you're very likely asking more about the physical geography of the region and the role of the underlying geology on surface conditions.

I don't know the answers, and right now don't have time to search (sorry), but that's where I'd start!

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For one thing I think the Ukes either dammed up or released dams North of Kyiv (don't remember which) and flooded miles of area. They're making some great tactical decisions like that and wouldn't be surprised if they're doing it other places too. If you know mud's a problem, double mud is that much better...

Agthatbuilds said:

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LMCane said:

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Get Off My Lawn said:

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LMCane said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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Once again, controlling many roads doesn’t really mean controlling territory. This is what the RU occupation looks like now. They drive around, kill, shell - but don’t control.#StandWithUkraine️ #putinisfailing pic.twitter.com/GWZUYdXX15

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) March 7, 2022

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that is Ukrainian propaganda. the Russians don't only "control" roads, they are encircling and capturing major Uke cities such as Mariupol and much of Kharkiv is completely surrounded and under siege.

Important to look dispassionately at the real situation to analyze it free from propaganda from either the Rus or the Ukes.

the reality is that the Russian southern front is making very good progress and that the Russians are in control of about 25% of the country already.

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There's a reason that you win Chess by capturing the king. The idea that control of the roads isn't important ignores the capture-the-flag nature of warfare. You don't need the hearts of farmers in a remote town in order to win - you need to get to (and control) the critical political and utility infrastructure. Biden doesn't care if rednecks hate him as long as they don't storm DC. Putin won't care what Ukrainians think of him as long as they aren't an impediment to his siege.

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Getoffmylawn is correct.

aside from political factors, actual military movements are guided much more by the available road networks and the ability to move your forces on the flanks or rear of the enemy. the USA never controlled every city in France, or in Iraq but was still able to defeat the Werhmacht. because they were able to use a road network to outflank every defensive position and trap enemy detachments in a pocket.

the russians are obviously trying to do the same thing by moving up the Dnieper river valley, cutting off the eastern front from the rest of the country and surrounding Kyiv from the south.

it's really a battle now for which side can hang on over the next 6 weeks and which side cracks first -from either being surrounded on the battlefield, or having their economy and supply logistics capabilities completely fractured.

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That's a good plan until the urban Ukrainian people fought back. Now Russia is going for encirclements which is going to require taking smaller communities and dealing with much longer fronts.

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Not saying it's not causing them all kinds of headaches, but surrounding a city, bypassing it, and coming back to deal with it later is a long standing part of Russian doctrine.

Decay said:

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Kenneth_2003 said:

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HTownAg98 said:

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There's been a lot of talk as to why the Russians have been able to make better progress in the south because it's drier and they aren't just restricted to the roads. How far north does this "dry line" extend? Does it run all the way to the south side of Kyiv, or does it stop somewhere, and Russian troops will be committed to the roads, just like they are in the north? Seems like you'd want to use that natural chokepoint to make a stand in the south.

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More than just "wet or dry" you're very likely asking more about the physical geography of the region and the role of the underlying geology on surface conditions.

I don't know the answers, and right now don't have time to search (sorry), but that's where I'd start!

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For one thing I think the Ukes either dammed up or released dams North of Kyiv (don't remember which) and flooded miles of area. They're making some great tactical decisions like that and wouldn't be surprised if they're doing it other places too. If you know mud's a problem, double mud is that much better...

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If I remember reading something earlier correctly, Southern Ukraine is the wheat basket of the country (think Kansas) as such, pretty flat and open ground. Much easier to maneuver

TRM said:

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group of former of South Korean SOF arrived in Ukrane pic.twitter.com/5tIOv5mYTF

— C4H10FO2P (@markito0171) March 7, 2022

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Guess who the American is…

E said:

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TRM said:

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group of former of South Korean SOF arrived in Ukrane pic.twitter.com/5tIOv5mYTF

— C4H10FO2P (@markito0171) March 7, 2022

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Guess who the American is…

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The guy crouching in the front has been in Fox News all week he is an American.

TRM said:

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group of former of South Korean SOF arrived in Ukrane pic.twitter.com/5tIOv5mYTF

— C4H10FO2P (@markito0171) March 7, 2022

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Where are the optics?

There are two in that pic. One is or used to be GBRS. Trying to find out if he's there as a contractor or for play.

DCPD158 said:

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Decay said:

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Kenneth_2003 said:

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HTownAg98 said:

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There's been a lot of talk as to why the Russians have been able to make better progress in the south because it's drier and they aren't just restricted to the roads. How far north does this "dry line" extend? Does it run all the way to the south side of Kyiv, or does it stop somewhere, and Russian troops will be committed to the roads, just like they are in the north? Seems like you'd want to use that natural chokepoint to make a stand in the south.

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More than just "wet or dry" you're very likely asking more about the physical geography of the region and the role of the underlying geology on surface conditions.

I don't know the answers, and right now don't have time to search (sorry), but that's where I'd start!

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For one thing I think the Ukes either dammed up or released dams North of Kyiv (don't remember which) and flooded miles of area. They're making some great tactical decisions like that and wouldn't be surprised if they're doing it other places too. If you know mud's a problem, double mud is that much better...

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If I remember reading something earlier correctly, Southern Ukraine is the wheat basket of the country (think Kansas) as such, pretty flat and open ground. Much easier to maneuver

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Not just the breadbasket of Ukraine but Europe and much of the Middle East as well. This war will cause starvation outside Ukraine and will destabilize the world.

A background briefing with a senior U.S. defense official for Monday about the war in Ukraine has concluded.

Some takeaways:

— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) March 7, 2022

Quote:

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The Pentagon has seen evidence that Russia is trying to recruit Syrians to fight on their behalf in Ukraine, senior U.S. defense official says. That matches a
@WSJ scoop from last night.

The Pentagon now assesses that nearly 100 percent of the Russian combat power prestaged at the Ukrainian border are now committed to the fight, a senior U.S. defense official says.

Russia has now launched more than 625 missiles at Ukraine since the invasion began, a senior U.S. defense official says Monday.

Airspace is still contested, as it has been, a Pentagon official says.

"We do continue to assess that President Zelensky has the vast majority of his fixed-wing aircraft available to him," senior U.S. defense official says.

Pentagon says it will deploy an additional 500 U.S. troops from the U.S. to Europe in light of the crisis in Ukraine, senior defense official says. No combat troops -- refueling, air ops center, etc.

The Pentagon does not seen any indications of additional Russian forces moving toward Ukraine, senior U.S. defense official says.

U.S. officials also do not see Belarusian forces moving to join the fight, senior U.S. defense official says.

Bombardments continue in multiple locations in Ukraine, something the Pentagon believes could be coming in part because of their failures to maneuver on the ground.

"It appears as though the Russians are increasing their use of long-range fires to supplement or make up for the lack of ground movement that they have had, and the lack of air superiority that they enjoy," senior U.S. defense official says.

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Something is targeting Kyiv like really hard now.
Motherfuckers must have launched their Iskanders again.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 7, 2022

so this war appears headed toward a combination of siege in some places and stalemate in others

TRM said:

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"Nearly 100 tons of Israeli aid has already been sent to Ukraine, and an Israeli field hospital will be established in the coming week in Ukrainian territory," Israel's Foreign Minister Yair Lapid in statement after meeting Blinken.

— Jennifer Griffin (@JenGriffinFNC) March 7, 2022

Israel's Foreign Minister: "Our mediation efforts are being done in full coordination with the United States. The United States is our greatest and closest ally. We share with them values and a strategic vision regarding the required steps."

— Jennifer Griffin (@JenGriffinFNC) March 7, 2022

Israel continues "to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear threshold state. The nuclear agreement which stands to be signed in Vienna is a bad and ineffective agreement. Israel isn’t obliged by it, and reserves the freedom to act in any way against the Iranian nuclear program."

— Jennifer Griffin (@JenGriffinFNC) March 7, 2022

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Interesting development after the recent visits between Russia and Israel. I wonder how related Israel's interest is to Syria, given the reports that Russia is recruiting Syrians.

3rd and 2 said:

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Ukraine lost its air force…

Wait, they have about 50% of their air force left

Today: Ukraine has a vast majority of their air force left

Hmmmm

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They can crank em out like sausage.

to quote from Khrushchev. Wink, wink

ttu_85 said:

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3rd and 2 said:

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Ukraine lost its air force…

Wait, they have about 50% of their air force left

Today: Ukraine has a vast majority of their air force left

Hmmmm

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They can crank em out like sausage.

to quote from Khrushchev. Wink, wink

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Fixed wing includes drones.

Ag In Ok said:

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ttu_85 said:

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3rd and 2 said:

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Ukraine lost its air force…

Wait, they have about 50% of their air force left

Today: Ukraine has a vast majority of their air force left

Hmmmm

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They can crank em out like sausage.

to quote from Khrushchev. Wink, wink

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Fixed wing includes drones.

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That makes more sense then.

Ag In Ok said:

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ttu_85 said:

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3rd and 2 said:

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Ukraine lost its air force…

Wait, they have about 50% of their air force left

Today: Ukraine has a vast majority of their air force left

Hmmmm

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They can crank em out like sausage.

to quote from Khrushchev. Wink, wink

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Fixed wing includes drones.

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I'll add I remember a report from the first few days that the ukes parked a bunch of inoperable planes on tarmacs and moved the majority to secure locations

#Ukraine Soviet-made air defense SA-8 Gecko (9K33 Osa) shots down #Russia jet. Those guys can do miracles with outdated equipment, we have to deliver them modern #airdefense systems so that they ‘close the sky’ themselves. pic.twitter.com/dqAlRC7BNn

— Denys Kolesnyk (@denkolesnyk) March 7, 2022

Here's the 9K33 OSA they were using. I hope it's one of the ones captured from the Russians

TRM said:

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Ukraine/Russia: Russian resupplies continue problematic around Kyiv. Earlier Ukrainian forces destroyed numerous fuel tankers in a long resupply convoy heading in from the east around Pryluky.

— The Cavell Group (@TCG_CrisisRisks) March 7, 2022

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That particular Russian column approaching Kiev from the east has become very extended.

It has bypassed a number of Ukrainian strongpoints in an effort to join the attack on Kiev as soon as possible, so it is having trouble maintaining a secure rear area.

If the Ukrainian army has the strength, it looks ripe for a spoiling attack into its southern flank.

The Pentagon reporting they see no indications of Russia moving more forces towards Ukraine, despite the Pentagon also assessing Russia has committed nearly 100% of the troops amassed near Ukraine into the war.

That's really fascinating, to the extent it is accurate---and it would be impossible for Russia to move significant resources towards Ukraine without the Pentagon and IC catching wind of it.

That can slice many ways. Russian belief Ukraine can't mount significant counter-offensives and thus they will grind out a protracted, near stalemate on through possibilities including a growing unwillingness to send more resources into a logistical quagmire.

This thread, third tweet down, explains Soviet doctrine and tactics were road centric in Afghanistan as well. Interesting stuff.

Link

Either the RU air force is completely incompetent, they are sacrificing poor pilots with older equipment, or just don't want to lose some planes and so are relying on ground forces to clear things up, but the lack of RU air force activity is curios and telling.

Still can't believe this whole thing didn't kick off with a 24-48 hour attack with 1000s of sorties to knock out UK C&C, air defense systems, airfields and UK air force.

Does not bode well for RU if they think they can go against NATO like that. If they tried that against a NATO country they would be wiped out on the ground in the first 24 hours.

I'm wondering if they are holding back for an AF / missile heavy "shock and awe".
I just can't dismiss Russia's ability to strike. Though we haven't seen it, i wouldn't plan on that remaining constant. They pulled in their version of the awacs, that may be an indicator they are preparing.

Volunteers from Belarus are in town to fight Putin alongside their Ukranian buddies. This is just one little group. More are coming! 🇺🇦🇧🇾#UkraineRussianWar #Ukraine️ #RussianUkrainianWar #BelarusWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/9PM5GQOEJr

— CodeZ🇮🇳🇺🇦 (@CodeZ) March 6, 2022

Belarus volunteer with the amazing stache is armed with M240 (FN MAG) machine gun delivered by the USA, equipped with Dedal-NV 490 DK3 night vision riflescope.

Translation:

Quote:

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• So here we have a Belarusian brigade who fights against Russian occupants, and their commander. Please tell how many Belorusians do you have inaudible ?
• Around... Sixty man.
• Sixty, right? Everyone is ready, have been trained?
• Everyone is ready, ready to kill Russians, Belorusians who will come to this land with a weapon. And of course Chechens, how can we do without Chechens?
• Aren't you afraid of how you'll be treaded when you return to Belarus?
• I will only return to free Belarus.
• So, in tanks, yes?
• Yes.
• Passing hello to all Chechens. All I've been beating up. Hello.
• Laughing

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Have you ever looked at Google earth photos of southern Ukraine. Mostly wheat fields with some scrub trees along th roads. No place to hide for shoot and scoot tactics that they have been emplying in north. As far as I can tell of the area northwest of Kyiv they destroyed the locks between the Irpin River and the Kyiv Reservoir which has a water elevationof 99 meters which is 5-6 meters higher than the Irpin River terrace which flooded a considerable part of any entrance to the city past the bridge that they destoyed making the Russians take a more westerly path to enter and through suburbs west of Kyiv.

TXAggie2011 said:

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The Pentagon reporting they see no indications of Russia moving more forces towards Ukraine, despite the Pentagon also assessing Russia has committed nearly 100% of the troops amassed near Ukraine into the war.

That's really fascinating, to the extent it is accurate---and it would be impossible for Russia to move significant resources towards Ukraine without the Pentagon and IC catching wind of it.

That can slice many ways. Russian belief Ukraine can't mount significant counter-offensives and thus they will grind out a protracted, near stalemate across the spectrum to a growing unwillingness to send more resources into a logistical quagmire.

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You can see them moving equipment from the east (Russia/Kazakhstan). There hasn't been a significant troop movement though, but you hear things about Wagner group and Syrians coming in. Rosguardia has entered in the south. I don't know if they're considered part of the 195k force though.

There's also this.

It seems that Belgorod state university officer cadets are being mobilized for something. Not sure if for Ukraine, or relieving others to go.#Russia pic.twitter.com/PO0NgZzXQx

— Petri Mäkelä (@pmakela1) March 6, 2022

Red Pear Realty said:

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#Ukraine: The Ukrainian Army hit another Russian supply convoy near #Kyiv, damaging/destroying a number of supply trucks, appears to be at least 6 that were likely hit. pic.twitter.com/MypX9IwZ40

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) March 7, 2022

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really curious about this. It is almost like they are using run of the mill cheap drones as kind of a periscope, with the added benefit of being able to win the social media war from the footage of the attack. Actually pretty brilliant

Quote:

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really curious about this. It is almost like they are using run of the mill cheap drones as kind of a periscope, with the added benefit of being able to win the social media war from the footage of the attack. Actually pretty brilliant

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As I recall, Zelensky asked for all civilian drones to be put to use.