Russians may yield on some things, but not Crimea. Major naval base at Sevastopol and their main access to the Black Sea and Med.

Even though the Russians are disproving their superpower status, they won't willingly give up their main naval base with year-round capabilities that allows them to project power outside of Russia. This has been their mantra since Peter the Great. That's not changing now or ever without major combat escalation.

TRM said:

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Note that its Estimated that Russian Forces began the Operation with about 195,000 Troops making this if true almost 25% of that initial Buildup.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 7, 2022

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To but this in perspective, just over 34,000 US soldiers were killed in Normandy between June 6, 1944 and September 14, 1944...

Seeing that Russia brought that to the table is a big turnabout from last week. I could see this nearing the end and a possible ceasefire in place in the next 48hrs

That seems to be incredibly high dud rate.

I wonder if those are mechanical/design flaw duds or if Russian ground/air crew are not arming weapons deliberately? Also possibility that they are releasing outside weapons design envelope while trying to evade SAMS.

Ag In Ok said:

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Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:

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Yes I don't really get it, if Russia would have just advanced into the disputed territories. Stopped and said this is ours now. There would be tension and probably a casualty list you could count with your fingers, but I guarantee you there would be zero sanctions.
I'm my mind it's too late for them to get that deal again.

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Assuming all of this is *true*

And now NATO is stronger, Japan is waking the hell up, Germany's testicles descended, Finland wants to party, Sweden is locked and ready to go, France admits failure, and the Ukrainian people. The Ukes. They put in a pinch, kneeled down, and guns up. The women stayed to fight. The president stayed with his people. Young men stepper forward to be counted in the fight. Warriors from around the world poured in to fight. Putin just watched the birth of a warrior nation. The next generation will be raised to hate Russia and Putin. If he invades again, the situation will be radically different so long as Ukraine develops economically and starts to tackle their corruption crisis. The latter is the keystone in my opinion.

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Looking at the bigger picture here, in what you posted, this invasion has been a massive, strategic failure for Russia. He has caused the opposite of many things he wanted to happen. In his blind desire to reincorporate Ukraine, he has reinvigorated NATO and strengthened it.

He has also reinforced the death of globalization that COVID started which many will be fine with including me. This war is a societal globe changing event that will be noted in the history books as such.

Probably too soon...but there are potentially many silver linings in this event.

Russians having another bad day in the air.

There a preliminary reports coming out that Ukrainian “WASP” Ground Forces have shot down a Russian Air Force SU-30 somewhere over Ukraine, there has been no indication where or using what as of yet.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 7, 2022

Irish 2.0 said:

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Seeing that Russia brought that to the table is a big turnabout from last week. I could see this nearing the end and a possible ceasefire in place in the next 48hrs

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Only for Russia to violate that? I think the ceasefires are basically worthless at this point, it's either peace agreement that's actually equitable and not hugely in favor of Russia or keep fighting from the Ukrainian point of view imo.

PJYoung said:

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Ukrainian navy: Russian vessel near Odessa retreated after being struck by Ukrainian gunfire - Reuters

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) March 7, 2022

⚡️EU working on further sanctions due to Kremlin's 'recklessness' towards civilians.

According to European Commission president @vonderleyen, the EU has to "get rid of the dependency on Russian gas, oil and coal" and will present proposals on March 8.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 7, 2022

⚡️ Over 140,000 people have returned to Ukraine since the start of Russia's invasion.

According to the State Border Guard Service, 80% of those returning are men.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 7, 2022

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That second tweet is huge and will cripple Russia long-term if they don't diversify their economy. Hopefully, that second tweet means self-sustaining technology and resources that aren't green. Based on what they've already said before Ukraine happened, it doesn't.

Again, this whole event is going to cause massive changes.

Irish 2.0 said:

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Seeing that Russia brought that to the table is a big turnabout from last week. I could see this nearing the end and a possible ceasefire in place in the next 48hrs

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What tactical reasons would Ukraine have for making a deal such as the one proposed that would end this in the next 48 hours?

Gordo14 said:

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Russia has almost completely stalled on every front at this point. I think momentum is on Ukraine's side. If they want complete self-determination beyond Russia's influence, now is not the time to make an agreement with Russia. I don't think this war is sustainable for Russia and the war of attrition is killing them.

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You're totally right, IMO. Ukraine is surprising Russia and the world with what they're doing to Putin's invasion. They need to keep their foot on the pedal as long as they can.

Agthatbuilds said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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Seeing that Russia brought that to the table is a big turnabout from last week. I could see this nearing the end and a possible ceasefire in place in the next 48hrs

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What tactical reasons would Ukraine have for making a deal such as the one proposed that would end this in the next 48 hours?

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I think what he s saying that Russia has made major concessions and Ukraine is operating from a place of more power in the negotiations now. Given those two aspects, the original deal isn't accepted, but a modified deal could be reached within 48 hours.

For Russia to make this offer after their intial demands, it tells you they are on the ropes. They cannot sustain this invasion militarily or politically. Their economy is crashing and they don't have the ability to resupply the equipment they already have in play. The entire west and most of the rest of the world has turned against them.

The Eukranians would be crazy to agree to Putin's new offer. If things keep going the way they have been, they'll be able to set their own terms in short order.

I can't believe Moldova or Kazakhstan would fare as well as Ukraine. Moldova is just too small and if Russia could push in from the south, they could put up some fight in the mountains, but really would struggle to hold anything strategic. I think. Kazakhstan is so wide open, but so is Ukraine. The problem with Kazakhstan is that it doesn't have a clear path for western aid to get to it. Also, the population isn't European which while the US has proven that that doesn't bother us, it's hard to get Europe to care about non-European populations.

Beat40 said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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Seeing that Russia brought that to the table is a big turnabout from last week. I could see this nearing the end and a possible ceasefire in place in the next 48hrs

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What tactical reasons would Ukraine have for making a deal such as the one proposed that would end this in the next 48 hours?

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I think what he s saying that Russia has made major concessions and Ukraine is operating from a place of more power in the negotiations now. Given those two aspects, the original deal isn't accepted, but a modified deal could be reached within 48 hours.

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FWIW, a ceasefire means something different from a peace agreement.

SouthTex99 said:

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Question for Naval experts...we've heard all the talk about stingers, javelins, Poland gifting air assets, ammo, etc. Is there anything the west can do to support the Ukraine Navy? Our Navy would make a video game out of what's going on in the south.

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of course the USA has munitions that are designed to attack naval craft, simliar to the chinese silkworm.

Maritime Strike Tomahawks and Harpoons

SouthTex99 said:

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Question for Naval experts...we've heard all the talk about stingers, javelins, Poland gifting air assets, ammo, etc. Is there anything the west can do to support the Ukraine Navy? Our Navy would make a video game out of what's going on in the south.

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Ukraine doesn't have much in terms of naval assets.

Ukraine recently developed their own ground to sea missile system called the Neptune. One of Russia's early priorities was to try to take out those launchers. Not sure if they've been successful or not. Russia bombed a weapons warehouse near Odesa a few days ago, probably trying to take out their store of missiles.

Other than that, unless NATO countries have air to sea missiles like Exocet (compatible with MiGs/Su) there's probably not much there except intel. A lot of the "smart" munitions from NATO are not going to be compatible with the existing tech inside of Ukraine.

SouthTex99 said:

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Question for Naval experts...we've heard all the talk about stingers, javelins, Poland gifting air assets, ammo, etc. Is there anything the west can do to support the Ukraine Navy? Our Navy would make a video game out of what's going on in the south.

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What Ukrainian Navy?

RebelE Infantry said:

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SouthTex99 said:

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Question for Naval experts...we've heard all the talk about stingers, javelins, Poland gifting air assets, ammo, etc. Is there anything the west can do to support the Ukraine Navy? Our Navy would make a video game out of what's going on in the south.

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What Ukrainian Navy?

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Fishing boats loaded with Javelins?

Until i see more reports backing up the russian offer, i tend to agree with you to a point. Kiev will take time to conquer and if the current offer is accurate, i think the Russians just figured out they don't have the ass for the fight. Even if they throw in more bodies. I don't know why else they would hedge. Polish SUs coming in would further complicate their ability to take Kiev, and if there really is a volunteer division heading from the west, it needs to engage ASAP. Especially on that southern front. Big day today in the east though.

jabberwalkie09 said:

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Beat40 said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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Seeing that Russia brought that to the table is a big turnabout from last week. I could see this nearing the end and a possible ceasefire in place in the next 48hrs

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What tactical reasons would Ukraine have for making a deal such as the one proposed that would end this in the next 48 hours?

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I think what he s saying that Russia has made major concessions and Ukraine is operating from a place of more power in the negotiations now. Given those two aspects, the original deal isn't accepted, but a modified deal could be reached within 48 hours.

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FWIW, a ceasefire means something different from a peace agreement.

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Anyone who believes the Ukrainians are negotiating from a position of strength is not analyzing the maps correctly.

the fact that a Uke political entity still exists is an amazing accomplishment, but every day that goes by the Russians move closer to encircling every major city in Ukraine (other than Lviv).

the Russians are also nearly able to head straight up the Dnieper valley on both sides of the river line and cut the country in two, as well as then advance on Kyiv directly from the south. then it's game over.

BlueSmoke said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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SouthTex99 said:

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Question for Naval experts...we've heard all the talk about stingers, javelins, Poland gifting air assets, ammo, etc. Is there anything the west can do to support the Ukraine Navy? Our Navy would make a video game out of what's going on in the south.

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What Ukrainian Navy?

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Fishing Drones loaded with Javelins?

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FIFY

Gordo14 said:

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Russia has almost completely stalled on every front at this point. I think momentum is on Ukraine's side. If they want complete self-determination beyond Russia's influence, now is not the time to make an agreement with Russia. I don't think this war is sustainable for Russia and the war of attrition is killing them.

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I think you can come to an agreement in which Russia understands that any future invasion into Ukraine results in American retaliation, with America and NATO promising not to put troops or equipment in Ukraine.

That would benefit Ukraine greatly, and Russia gets its stated military objectives achieved.

BlueSmoke said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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SouthTex99 said:

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Question for Naval experts...we've heard all the talk about stingers, javelins, Poland gifting air assets, ammo, etc. Is there anything the west can do to support the Ukraine Navy? Our Navy would make a video game out of what's going on in the south.

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What Ukrainian Navy?

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Fishing boats loaded with Javelins?

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LOL that is going to be ineffective against the "modern" Russian frigates which they have moved into the Black Sea.

they need stand off munitions fired from the Odessa area such as a Silkworm that Hizbullah launched from lebanon and struck an Israeli frigate in 2006.