IDaggie06 said:

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SPSAg05 said:

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BREAKING:
It’s official - 🇺🇦 Snake Island sailors are alive, Navy confirms.
They were taken prisoner by Russia.

— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) February 28, 2022

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Exhibit A on why you can't believe everything Ukraine puts out and disregard everything Russia puts out. Same with believing every tweet out there including on this thread. I'd guess only 30% of them are accurate. In this case, Russia was the ones saying this was all fake news and they were not killed but people said they were lying. Obviously Russia (along with China) are the kings of propaganda but it's not all one sided.

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News is fake, war is real.

Russian troops have now moved to 25 km from Kyiv's city center with eventual goal of encircling city says senior defense official

— luis martinez (@LMartinezABC) February 28, 2022

bigangrytexan said:

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Call your congressman. Demand that we and other NATO countries put a stop to this. Just a few drone strikes can neutralize all of their artillery.

Dozens of civilians killed, authorities say

— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) February 28, 2022

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I have a friend from Kharkiv, whose mother is still there. She says that her mother has been hiding in the hallway of their apartment building whenever there is noise. She has been sending her mother news updates (she is in Germany) to tell her when to hide.

Quote:

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"These are the conditions in which runs on local banks begin," wrote Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics. "The [Russian central bank] has this morning raised interest rates to 20% but other measures (e.g. limits on deposit withdrawals) are possible later today. All of this will accelerate Russia's economic downturn a fall in GDP of [about] 5% now looks likely."

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This makes it seem like the economic sanctions are overhyped, right? From what has been said on here, 5% seems incredibly low.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/28/business/russia-ruble-banks-sanctions/index.html

I totally don't understand the Russian geopolitical play here (Putin error) or their plan of attack / battle (military error).

On the geopolitical side, having already taken Crimea in 2014, given the breakaway regions in the east and the formal recognition of those, Putin/Russia should have taken those "republics" and sent in their "peacekeepers" to claim and secure the Dobas region of Donetsk and Luhansk and then stood pat. Assimilate that and keep the political pressure on the rest of Ukraine with all the forces massed. Think it was a big mistake to invade. The eastern regions are pro-Russia / Russian, the rest of the country clearly does not identify as Russian. The goal was to have Ukraine be neutral at minimum, pro-Russia / anti-West and that could maybe be accomplished via political pressure. But, given the decision to invade....

I don't know WTH the Russian military is doing, other than a half-a** piecemeal job that they are now having to shore up with more forces.

• I don't think 130K soldiers is enough to invade such a large area, not even talking invade and hold, just invade period.
• Understand the concept of reserves and defense in depth, but when you are the aggressor it needs to be overwhelming, sending in such a small'ish almost expeditionary force with reportedly conscripts has not gone well.
• Not that I expected the Russian state media to broadcast the effort like we did the Gulf wars, but there is enough live reporting going to on to understand what is and is not happening overall.
• Don't understand why there was not an initial 4-6 hour attack of guided missiles and rockets targeting Ukranine command and control and strategic sites such as airfields, etc., followed by a 24-36 hour concentrated attack by SU and Mig attack fighters to knock out all air defenses and establish air superiority. Followed by paratroopers to seize and control key bridges, particularly across the Dnieper river, then a coordinated multi-prong advance of armor supported by substantial infantry.
• Russia does not have next-gen fighter/attack aircraft like the F-22 and F-35, but they have an abundance of very good aircraft on par with F-15/16/18 (though their avionics and weapons may still lag behind) and we have seen very little to almost no videos/reporting of an amount of sorties attacking UK command and control, airfields, strategic bridges and locations, defensive positions, etc.

The whole battle plan seems haphazard and just counting on UK to lay down and capitulate, not put up a fight. It just seems like on giant CF. Russia comitting more forces now and I think the entire outlook will change in the next 48 hours, at this point Putin and the Russian army have no choice but to commit to a full assault on all axes.

In the end I think Russia will take Ukraine in the short term, but this is going to be a long drawn out process and they will/may eventually lose. They can't hold the country with less than maybe 250K active troops, soldiers on the ground to occupy the country.

ttu_85 said:

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bigangrytexan said:

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Call your congressman. Demand that we and other NATO countries put a stop to this. Just a few drone strikes can neutralize all of their artillery.

Dozens of civilians killed, authorities say

— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) February 28, 2022

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Yeah and a nuke strike could nuetralize:

Dallas, Atlanta, NY, LA, Chicago, Houston, and your grandma

Think with your head and not your emotions. This **** is how you kill a planet.

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We have nukes too. We have deterrence. We can shoot ballistic missiles out of the sky.

Watch this video. Tell me when you finish it that we shouldn't stop this atrocity.

Reportedly Russian snipers shoot dead a Ukrainian father in front of his son in the Ivankov region of Kyiv https://t.co/74bJimz77W

— ELINT News (@ELINTNews) February 28, 2022

Something to keep an eye on. Good thing MSRs/ASRs (main and alternate supply routes) are a thing. Too easy to transport via ground from border countries, as long as routes are usable. https://t.co/kmDyK9DJiB

— The Intel Hub (@The_IntelHub) February 28, 2022

Looks like so far Russia has yet again failed to conduct rear security or security for their supply routes, leading to more valuable fuel to not make it to the forward line of troops. If this keeps up a Russia is likely going to over extend even more. https://t.co/IdizbZu2Wg

— The Intel Hub (@The_IntelHub) February 28, 2022

AggieLit said:

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bigangrytexan said:

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Call your congressman. Demand that we and other NATO countries put a stop to this. Just a few drone strikes can neutralize all of their artillery.

Dozens of civilians killed, authorities say

— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) February 28, 2022

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I have a friend from Kharkiv, whose mother is still there. She says that her mother has been hiding in the hallway of their apartment building whenever there is noise. She has been sending her mother news updates (she is in Germany) to tell her when to hide.

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Your friend's mother needs to either 1) Evacuate from Kharkiv immediately (preferred) or 2) Go to the nearest Metro station and stay there. Anything aboveground is currently at risk, and the Russians haven't even used their most terrifying weapons yet.

Kharkiv is soon to look like Grozny or Beirut. Everyone who can't fight needs to get out now.

I am by no means a military expert. But I've thought about this, too.

My conclusions are:

• They either can't do any of those things effectively due to really ****ty military tech that we have simply overestimated throughout recent years and/or their military leadership is arrogant and stupid.

or

• The real goal is to goad NATO into war and they sent the JV in to do just that.

Any statements from the EU today?

Dorm 15 said:

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Any statements from the EU today?

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Probably not until after the meeting today between NATO, EU and other allies.

Agree.

Russia is fully committed to the invasion and it looks like we're seeing the gloves come off with regards to collateral damage. If that's the case, Ukraine will eventually capitulate without foreign military interdiction or insurrection from within.

Even with bone headed tactics, the willingness to take unnecessary losses coupled with willingness to cause civilian and collateral damage is too much to overcome when you have an obscene amount of men/material.

Individual war crimes are not evidence, they are propaganda. The Ukrainians are doing bad things as well. No army has that level of control over each individual soldier. I guarantee every Russian citizen is watching videos of Ukrainians beating Indian evacuees, covering themselves in swastikas, and executing "saboteurs" who they have been told are likely regular Ukrainians.

Evidence needs to demonstrate something about the big picture, not simply that someone in the Russian army has no conscience. There are enough outrage pieces for both sides to have their fill.

aTmAg said:

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The fact that Zalenski demands them to get out of Crimea is badass. That dude gets it. I wish we could elect him president of the US.

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Actual photo of Zelensky in negotiations. (How do you embed???)

https://images.app.goo.gl/URiioeDJQaW7ak9CA

Dang it

TASS is Russian media

RUSSIA-UKRAINE PEACE TALKS END - TASS CITES SOURCE

— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) February 28, 2022

China cuts off Russian oil trade financing. Umm, this seems like a big deal. Not surprised the CCP doesn't want to take a financial bath over this.

#UKRANCE

I just hope the EU does?

Today I've written to all UK ports asking them not to provide access to any Russian flagged, registered, owned, controlled, chartered or operated vessels.

Given Putin's action in #Ukraine I've made clear these vessels are NOT welcome here with prohibiting legislation to follow. pic.twitter.com/5pKzfvcbGi

— Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP (@grantshapps) February 28, 2022

Russia will ban its residents from sending money abroad as it tries to avert a deep economic crisishttps://t.co/6Q0VjdG0GL

— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) February 28, 2022

BREAKING: Vladimir Putin told French Pres. Emmanuel Macron he'll stop strikes against civilian targets, according to the Elysée, and that he'll preserve civilian infrastructure to secure main roads, including the road south of Kyiv. https://t.co/WklsBKILKo

— ABC News (@ABC) February 28, 2022

So, if eu accepts, does it go to war?

Come on France, don't blink now.

Just seen long Russian troops convoy South of Belgorod moving away from the Kharkiv frontline area. Maybe Russian military rotating forces? #CNN #Ukraine #Russia pic.twitter.com/OtQcTra05L

— Frederik Pleitgen (@fpleitgenCNN) February 28, 2022

RUSSIA AND UKRAINE HAVE ENDED PEACE TALKS, WILL RETURN TO RESPECTIVE CAPITALS FOR FURTHER CONSULTATIONS BEFORE SECOND ROUND OF TALKS - RIA CITES UKRAINIAN OFFICIAL

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 28, 2022