***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,553,524 Views | 47734 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by 74OA
98Ag99Grad
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SPSAg05 said:



Oof......


Lotta pissed off millionaires and billionaires in Russia right now. How the hell does putin survive this??
Waffledynamics
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Irish 2.0 said:

Robert C. Christian said:

Some people are just built different.



Mother ****er waking around with a live mine smoking a Marlboro


I'm not even surprised anymore after some of the crazy things I've seen.

Wait a minute. Would that be a Ukrainian mine? Would Russia place mines to hold gains? We talked before about the problem of civilian casualties with mines.
CharlieBrown17
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Spaceship said:

Man it seems the sanctions are piling on in accelerated fashion now. Putin seems to be getting a big squeeze, less the European gas buying which is the most impactful.


I think we're seeing two things here.

Peer pressure and then the general fatigue of Russia being the bully finally boiling over.
Jock 07
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GAC06 said:

Jock 07 said:

GAC06 said:

Jock 07 said:

GAC06 said:

Jock 07 said:

GAC06 said:

Jock 07 said:

JobSecurity said:

Irish 2.0 said:

flakrat said:

According to https://www.defconlevel.com/ we are still at Defcon 3, no change since Putin's statement.


Biden won't do that. It'll spook our market pretty bad if he did.


That website is run by some joe schmoe and has nothing to do with our or any other govt


This. The DoD isn't publishing the current DEFCON for public consumption.


Lots of instances where we announced DEFCON changes


In recent times? Help me recall when.


9/11


I know it was revealed later but when and who announced it on 9/11?


Perhaps you're right, I don't see a formal announcement after a quick search. But maybe a moot point because the Russians knew about it pretty much as soon as the order was given according to this. Not really something that can be kept quiet.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna645711


Quote:

Gen. Ralph "Ed" Eberhart, the commander of North American Aerospace Defense Command in Colorado Springs that day, told the 9/11 Commission in now-declassified Top Secret testimony that moving to DEFCON 3 was hotly debated.


Exactly, like I said we (US Govt) aren't publishing what our current DEFCON and other readiness levels are.


But it's still known immediately so somewhat irrelevant

Not to the public which was my original point.
SidsBurnerAccount
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War at sea update.
lb3
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FriscoKid said:

Bag said:

odds are pretty good the dumbass loses the crimea over this

That's what Israel would do. If they get attacked they kick the invaders ass and then take some of their land for even trying.
I don't see that happening. Putin isn't giving up their Black Sea fleet without carpet bombing the Ukrainians first.
SPI-FlatsCatter 84
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No Spin Ag said:

JobSecurity said:



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Strongweasel97
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I also think there's a little bit of sitting on the sidelines and waiting to place your bet.
98Ag99Grad
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Double post
Spaceship
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lb3 said:

Just in time deliveries mean that modern cities only have a few days worth of supplies on hand.

The runs on HEB and other supply chain issues at the start of the Pandemic are nothing like the hoarding an invasion would spark. If Russia is having trouble supplying their 150k man invasion force, Kiev and it's 3 million residents will be scavenging and turning on each other soon.

Hopefully most of the population left when they had the opportunity.

This is my biggest worry for my family in Melitopol right now. They are without power, water and phone service for over 24 hours now, and Ukrainians don't store up food en mass from Costco like we do. They typically only buy what they need every 1-2 days. If this continues and even if Russia remains largely stalled, no aid is coming in and it could become a large humanitarian situation very quickly.
Choobadooba
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I doubt that unless Ukraine physically takes it back. I think Putin will ask for all the rebel territories so he can say that he won.
DCPD158
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CharlieBrown17 said:

Spaceship said:

Man it seems the sanctions are piling on in accelerated fashion now. Putin seems to be getting a big squeeze, less the European gas buying which is the most impactful.


I think we're seeing two things here.

Peer pressure and then the general fatigue of Russia being the bully finally boiling over.
Europe is finally realizing - Ukraine then ME!

In that realization, they probably know that western Europe's civilian population most likely would not respond like Ukraine's.
Company I-1, Ord-Ords '85 -12thFan and Websider-
Ulysses90
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Quote:

Lastly I wonder if Armor is going to fall far back to a support role and no longer be the tip of the spear regarding advancement. T72s and T80s popping like bloated cans of tuna against the AT weapons in the field are going to force some major changes in doctrine.


I really hate to admit it but Gen Berger's stock has risen for making the very unpopular choice to get rid of tanks in the Marine Corps. I was not a fan of that decisio and I am still not because of how powerful they can be when used with close integration with infantry. However, he can take a victory lap around the E-ring because even the most ardent tankists will have to admit that the growing data set of tank vs. Javelin or NLAW is making them look very vulnerable.
HarryJ33tamu
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Prayers for your family
Ag87H2O
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74OA said:

Congratulations Putin, you truly are Russia's worst enemy.

He's knocking the rust off NATO; I hear creaks of machinery starting move.

The new Tsar has even woken the Germans from their long sleep.

The law of unintended consequences is in full play.
Maybe the biggest strategic military blunder in modern history. He likely failed in his stated objective, awakened the sleeping giant, and he exposed his own military weaknesses.

I don't see how Putin survives this.
AggieKO
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What would Russia do if NATO signed ukraine in today?
MouthBQ98
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Encirclement means the attacker has to fight in two directions, which is a greater challenge if it is kept narrow.
TRD-Ferguson
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Sort of like this:

"They're on our right, they're on our left, they're in front of us, they're behind us; they can't get away from us this time." Chesty Puller
.
LostInLA07
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AggieKO said:

What would Russia do if NATO signed ukraine in today?


NATO won't do that while the conflict is ongoing. It would be a de facto declaration of war on Russia.

If this conflict ends with Ukraine still existing as an independent country…who knows.
Ag In Ok
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Some guys just can't not run to the fight.
SPI-FlatsCatter 84
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et98 said:

RangerRick9211 said:



This was helpful to understand Russia's motivations. Obviously they want NATO off the table, but probably some form of petro-state demands (drop tarrifs on pass through transmission/guarantees on no development of reserves). They might also want to carve off the remaining ports in the south with Crimea (and the Donbas region).
Thank you for posting this video. I'm a history teacher and am working feverishly to pause our normal curriculum for 1 day tomorrow to explain what's going on in Ukraine (why it's happening from different historical & motivational perspectives, what's happening currently, and different takes on what might happen next). I've been poring over tons of information all weekend, and this video is a great & concise resource that has helped figure out how to articulate certain things with great visuals that I can crop & use.

Thanks!


Thanks for caring enough to try and present real information to your kids
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hunter2012
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Can an Abrams with modern plating take a hit from a Javelin or NLAW?
SPSAg05
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LostInLA07 said:

AggieKO said:

What would Russia do if NATO signed ukraine in today?


NATO won't do that while the conflict is ongoing. It would be a de facto declaration of war on Russia.

If this conflict ends with Ukraine still existing as an independent country…who knows.
Putin has said this is about NATO staying off of his border....so what if NATO signed Finland today?
GAC06
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Modern missiles are nasty. Active defense systems are needed. Israelis learned this
TAMU1990
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lb3 said:

JobSecurity said:


Would make for one hell of a fire team, but without our intelligence, communications, and transport what will their role be?

Training civilians, VIP protection, reconnaissance?
I bet we have special forces on the ground already. It wouldn't surprise me if some were assigned to Zalensky. .
bmks270
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Why are counties supplying Ukraine now when they "knew" Russia was going to invade weeks before? Why didn't they reinforce Ukraine them? Seems really stupid to wait to after the invasion you knew was going to happen.
Demosthenes81
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hunter2012 said:

Can an Abrams with modern plating take a hit from a Javelin or NLAW?
Probably depends on what protective systems it has installed, and whether you believe the sales brochure.

Seven and three are ten, not only now, but forever. There has never been a time when seven and three were not ten, nor will there ever be a time when they are not ten. Therefore, I have said that the truth of number is incorruptible and common to all who think. — St. Augustine
Demosthenes81
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bmks270 said:

Why are counties supplying Ukraine now when they "knew" Russia was going to invade weeks before? Why didn't they reinforce Ukraine them? Seems really stupid to wait to after the invasion you knew was going to happen.
Public shaming.
Seven and three are ten, not only now, but forever. There has never been a time when seven and three were not ten, nor will there ever be a time when they are not ten. Therefore, I have said that the truth of number is incorruptible and common to all who think. — St. Augustine
SidsBurnerAccount
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bmks270 said:

Why are counties supplying Ukraine now when they "knew" Russia was going to invade weeks before? Why didn't they reinforce Ukraine them? Seems really stupid to wait to after the invasion you knew was going to happen.
Some did supply before. More are joining after. Ukraine has showed they can survive, so more and more countries are getting off the sidelines.
RONA Ag
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SPSAg05 said:

LostInLA07 said:

AggieKO said:

What would Russia do if NATO signed ukraine in today?


NATO won't do that while the conflict is ongoing. It would be a de facto declaration of war on Russia.

If this conflict ends with Ukraine still existing as an independent country…who knows.
Putin has said this is about NATO staying off of his border....so what if NATO signed Finland today?


Depending what happens in the near future I think this becomes more and more a reality. Think we could see Sweden especially join nato in the not too distant future
1872walker
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TAMU1990 said:

lb3 said:

JobSecurity said:


Would make for one hell of a fire team, but without our intelligence, communications, and transport what will their role be?

Training civilians, VIP protection, reconnaissance?
I bet we have special forces on the ground already. It wouldn't surprise me if some were assigned to Zalensky. .


You can bet your ass that we have American assets in country. Special Forces, contractors, the CIA and other alphabet agencies.
BTKAG97
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flakrat said:

According to https://www.defconlevel.com/ we are still at Defcon 3, no change since Putin's statement.

The only other time the US was at DEFCON 2 was from October 26 to November 15th, 1962 during the Cuban Missle Crisis but that was only for the Strategic Air Command (SAC).
bonfarr
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SidsBurnerAccount said:

bmks270 said:

Why are counties supplying Ukraine now when they "knew" Russia was going to invade weeks before? Why didn't they reinforce Ukraine them? Seems really stupid to wait to after the invasion you knew was going to happen.
Some did supply before. More are joining after. Ukraine has showed they can survive, so more and more countries are getting off the sidelines.


Yep, this is like the French waiting until General Washington proved we could be successful against the Nritiah before they committed their Navy.
Dorm 15
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How do we know "they" didn't supply Ukraine before?
Bag
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blakegrimez said:

I doubt that unless Ukraine physically takes it back. I think Putin will ask for all the rebel territories so he can say that he won.
yea, except Putin is done, the world has spoken this will not end well
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