Love Gun said:

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I'm surprised we're not seeing tons of videos of AAA spraying the sky. You know they have them. Curious if they're absent, destroyed, or being saved to use against ground targets.

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If you fire up a radar to shoot your SAM, you just became a target. Perhaps they are being judicious in their use.

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Rossticus said:

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2 AN-124s on the way but still on north side of Belarus. Bringing a lot of something.

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erudite said:

Not VDV since that is a "Air Transport Division" only aircraft. My guess would be large AA since planes/helicopters would just fly.

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Rossticus said:

Or armor if they've lost enough to javelins.

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I think that they would use the rail system to Belgorod if for that. Especially since Kharkiv is still held by the Ukrainians. I'm leaning towards artillery or rocket munitions to be used for Kyiv.

jabberwalkie09 said:

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I’m expecting to hear more combinations of these claims over the next hour

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 25, 2022

Loading full tweet…

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I'll take 3 of the 4 - all involving the Ukrainian SAM.

I think lots of twitter are thinking it's all one explosion, but there's been like 3 different explosions.

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Agthatbuilds said:

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Eliminatus said:

As crass as it may seem, the defenders of Snake Island are the blueprint for martyrdom that Ukrainians can use to rally around.

Last stands are the stuff of legends. (No matter the circumstances really. I imagine they were all killed by standoff fire)

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Faustus said:

That's a much lower body count than I expected from the strikes, bombardment, and invasion on multiple fronts.

I assume Russia is trying to do this like Israel when it attacks militants in Gaza, and minimize the body count (and collateral damage) lest it be used against the stronger force.

The snake island attack seems like a mistake on that front.

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GAC06 said:

You believe those numbers? Come on man.

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Ukraine is going to pump out propaganda too. We can want them to win but keep that in your mind as your read reports.

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Rossticus said:

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2 AN-124s on the way but still on north side of Belarus. Bringing a lot of something.

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erudite said:

Not VDV since that is a "Air Transport Division" only aircraft. My guess would be large AA since planes/helicopters would just fly.

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Rossticus said:

Or armor if they've lost enough to javelins.

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jabberwalkie09 said:

I think that they would use the rail system to Belgorod if for that. Especially since Kharkiv is still held by the Ukrainians. I'm leaning towards artillery or rocket munitions to be used for Kyiv.

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Makes sense.

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KYcatTXaggie said:

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If that was a Bomber why is it flying so low? Transport doesn't make a lot of sense either.

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erudite said:

Maybe SU-24 on some sort of attack run/SEAD operation?

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Rapier108 said:

Or SU-34. Would be nice to have knocked down one of those. It is one of Russia's newer toys. The SU-24 is late 60s vintage.

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JB!98 said:

That looks like a lot more fuel and debris than a fencer or a fullback.

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Rapier108 said:

Oh I agree. That's why I said earlier I think it was a TU-22M, if it was a bomber.

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erudite said:

No bombs would be the best argument against, unless it was a recon TU-22M. The Russians lost one in Georgia by a Buk in 2008.

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Rossticus said:

Speculation that the munitions could have incinerated on the way down.

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erudite said:

Shouldn't that cause secondary explosions?
Regardless of what that was, I think Putin will not be happy. He either just lost an expensive missile headed toward a critical target, a strategic bomber, or some sort of transport aircraft airdropping into Kiyv. None of which are good.

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rathAG05 said:

I mean, I'm sure he doesn't want to lose a single plane, but would assume it's just the cost of war and he'll brush it off and press ahead.

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erudite said:

Russia can replace helocopters and single seat fighters. But a strategic bomber? Not so much. They haven't gotten a replacement for the Tu-22M or Tu-160s and the former is almost 50 years old.

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Rapier108 said:

The Tupolev PAK DA (it will get an official designation once in service) should be making its first appearance in the next 2 years. It will be their answer to the B-21 Raider.

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GAC06 said:

Lol. Yeah like the PAK FA is the answer to the F-22?

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Not saying it will be as good, but for Ivan, it is to counter the F-22 and the DA is to be the counterpart to the B-21. They also have another aircraft in development as the answer to the F-35, but I forget what its called right now.

You're replying to a poster who thought the truckers in Canada were a false flag fyi and there were no protests. He/she they struggle with interpretation of data, so be gentle

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Agthatbuilds said:

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Click to load Tweet

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Eliminatus said:

As crass as it may seem, the defenders of Snake Island are the blueprint for martyrdom that Ukrainians can use to rally around.

Last stands are the stuff of legends. (No matter the circumstances really. I imagine they were all killed by standoff fire)

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TBH, this is the exact reason I wouldn't be surprised if the Snake Island thing never happened. Zelensky knows his only shot at winning this is if he can rally the populace to fight.

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Jay Reimenschneider said:

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If Russia can hit our grid so easily, why does Ukraine still have power?

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Eliminatus said:

My biggest head scratcher of all. It's textbook to secure or knockout the vital infrastructure of a city when fighting. The sooner the better.

It's why I have been questioning the goals of this invasion from the get go and have stated as such already. It's awful and people are dying but ultimately this seems like a lighthearted attempt to take over small sections piecemeal. The russians are not committing the units and tactics I would have suspected.

I can see the Russians playing this as safe as possible perhaps which would account for some of this and actually leads credence to what Putin has been saying all along. That this is a military operation and not an invasion.

ETA:To clarify, yes this is an invasion but not a REAL invasion it seems like is what I am getting at. Russia is hamstrung somehow and I do not know the reasons why. Self inflicted? Uke resistance really that effective? Trying to stay good in PR image? Not rebuild a shattered country?


I'm so confused.



(Oops, replied instead of amend)

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In todays geopolitical one world order, who the hell knows. All of this could have been agreed to years ahead and all theatre outside of rouge uninformed elements getting scores.

The whole thing is weird. The sanctions are weird, Putin not going all in is weird. I watch some of this and think "that's mighty Russia??" Now "shock and awe" was a real superpower going after something. This world just hasn't seemed real since Covid. Maybe even Obama even.

I believe Trump was not supposed to happen and everything kind of paused when he was elected. They regrouped, released the virus and stole the election. The show can now continue. There.. I said it

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Rossticus said:

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2 AN-124s on the way but still on north side of Belarus. Bringing a lot of something.

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erudite said:

Not VDV since that is a "Air Transport Division" only aircraft. My guess would be large AA since planes/helicopters would just fly.

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Rossticus said:

Or armor if they've lost enough to javelins?

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Would be easier to just drive them in via Chernobyl. I suspect it may be artillery/AA or something that can''t move as easily across roads that haven't been maintained for 30 years.

As for the plane shootdown. There's another possibility. Friendly fire on Ukrainian jet.

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Agthatbuilds said:

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Click to load Tweet

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Eliminatus said:

As crass as it may seem, the defenders of Snake Island are the blueprint for martyrdom that Ukrainians can use to rally around.

Last stands are the stuff of legends. (No matter the circumstances really. I imagine they were all killed by standoff fire)

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Faustus said:

That's a much lower body count than I expected from the strikes, bombardment, and invasion on multiple fronts.

I assume Russia is trying to do this like Israel when it attacks militants in Gaza, and minimize the body count (and collateral damage) lest it be used against the stronger force.

The snake island attack seems like a mistake on that front.

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It does seem lower than I expected as well. But that is relative too I guess. When adjusted to our standing military members it would equate to somewhere around 500 dead in a single day. That's a pretty big deal.

What's the osint stream?

Ukraine counterattacks and takes yet another airport back from the Russians.

Scroll down to the update at the bottom of the article.

Hard Fighting

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Love Gun said:

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I'm surprised we're not seeing tons of videos of AAA spraying the sky. You know they have them. Curious if they're absent, destroyed, or being saved to use against ground targets.

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CanyonAg77 said:

If you fire up a radar to shoot your SAM, you just became a target. Perhaps they are being judicious in their use.

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Two different things. While some have fire control radars, I'm talking about guns. 14.5mm and bigger. Those ZPU's and ZU-23's. Ack Ack, if you will

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Rossticus said:

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2 AN-124s on the way but still on north side of Belarus. Bringing a lot of something.

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erudite said:

Not VDV since that is a "Air Transport Division" only aircraft. My guess would be large AA since planes/helicopters would just fly.

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Rossticus said:

Or armor if they've lost enough to javelins.

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jabberwalkie09 said:

I think that they would use the rail system to Belgorod if for that. Especially since Kharkiv is still held by the Ukrainians. I'm leaning towards artillery or rocket munitions to be used for Kyiv.

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Fog of war is annoying ain't it. I think maybe heavier AA systems might be a possibility too. A SAM battery based in Chernobyl could seriously threaten Ukrainian Air superiority in their capital.

🚨🇺🇦 Image of the recently intercepted object over Kyiv!!! #Russia #Ukraine #UkraineUnderAttack #UkraineWar #Europe #NATO #EU #US [81] pic.twitter.com/VzRkMCTIQP

— World Events Live - Jon (@IdeologyWars) February 25, 2022

Loading full tweet…

More images of the interception over Kyiv pic.twitter.com/n8Pka2ioMx

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 25, 2022

Loading full tweet…

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Agthatbuilds said:

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Click to load Tweet

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Eliminatus said:

As crass as it may seem, the defenders of Snake Island are the blueprint for martyrdom that Ukrainians can use to rally around.

Last stands are the stuff of legends. (No matter the circumstances really. I imagine they were all killed by standoff fire)

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Faustus said:

That's a much lower body count than I expected from the strikes, bombardment, and invasion on multiple fronts.

I assume Russia is trying to do this like Israel when it attacks militants in Gaza, and minimize the body count (and collateral damage) lest it be used against the stronger force.

The snake island attack seems like a mistake on that front.

.

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GAC06 said:

You believe those numbers? Come on man.

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I wouldn't have thought so. Also just to be clear Ukraine and Israel are the good guys, regardless of the roles being flipped in the comparison.

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/russia-attacks-ukraine-drawing-broad-condemnation-11645682406

Quote:

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. . . Mr. Zelensky said Ukraine had sustained 137 dead and 316 injured on Thursday. He said Russia wasn't only striking military targets but also civilian sites. . . .

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If nothing else I'd have expected the civilian casualties to have been inflated to generate support. Just surprised so far. It could all turn on its head tomorrow.

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Jay Reimenschneider said:

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If Russia can hit our grid so easily, why does Ukraine still have power?

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Eliminatus said:

My biggest head scratcher of all. It's textbook to secure or knockout the vital infrastructure of a city when fighting. The sooner the better.

It's why I have been questioning the goals of this invasion from the get go and have stated as such already. It's awful and people are dying but ultimately this seems like a lighthearted attempt to take over small sections piecemeal. The russians are not committing the units and tactics I would have suspected.

I can see the Russians playing this as safe as possible perhaps which would account for some of this and actually leads credence to what Putin has been saying all along. That this is a military operation and not an invasion. To clarify, yes this is an invasion but not a REAL invasion it seems like is what I am getting at. Russia is hamstrung somehow and I do not know the reasons why. Self inflicted? Uke resistance really that effective? Trying to stay good in PR image? Not rebuild a shattered country?

I'm so confused.

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Exactly,! Russia is hamstrung because they are WEAK. They have nukes but can't use them. They have soldiers that are much like our soldiers: connected to the internet. They are using their soldiers to fight against people that are too similar to them. The will of a soldier, when fighting what may be their brothers is greatly diminished.

Regarding electricity, I'm guessing two things why they still have some:

1) Russia doesn't want a humanitarian crises on their hand after the Ukraine government falls

and

2) The Ukraine government/military is probably so compromised leaving everybody's electronics on probably gets the Russians MORE intelligence than if the electricity was off.

It's not like they need the electricity for defense or anything.

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Jay Reimenschneider said:

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If Russia can hit our grid so easily, why does Ukraine still have power?

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Eliminatus said:

My biggest head scratcher of all. It's textbook to secure or knockout the vital infrastructure of a city when fighting. The sooner the better.

It's why I have been questioning the goals of this invasion from the get go and have stated as such already. It's awful and people are dying but ultimately this seems like a lighthearted attempt to take over small sections piecemeal. The russians are not committing the units and tactics I would have suspected.

I can see the Russians playing this as safe as possible perhaps which would account for some of this and actually leads credence to what Putin has been saying all along. That this is a military operation and not an invasion. To clarify, yes this is an invasion but not a REAL invasion it seems like is what I am getting at. Russia is hamstrung somehow and I do not know the reasons why. Self inflicted? Uke resistance really that effective? Trying to stay good in PR image? Not rebuild a shattered country?

I'm so confused.

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10thYrSr said:

Exactly,! Russia is hamstrung because they are WEAK. They have nukes but can't use them. They have soldiers that are much like our soldiers: connected to the internet. They are using their soldiers to fight against people that are too similar to them. The will of a soldier, when fighting what may be their brothers is greatly diminished.

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AgsMyDude said:

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What's the osint stream?

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https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1PlJQakrDjYJE?s=20

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KYcatTXaggie said:

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If that was a Bomber why is it flying so low? Transport doesn't make a lot of sense either.

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erudite said:

Maybe SU-24 on some sort of attack run/SEAD operation?

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Rapier108 said:

Or SU-34. Would be nice to have knocked down one of those. It is one of Russia's newer toys. The SU-24 is late 60s vintage.

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JB!98 said:

That looks like a lot more fuel and debris than a fencer or a fullback.

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Rapier108 said:

Oh I agree. That's why I said earlier I think it was a TU-22M, if it was a bomber.

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erudite said:

No bombs would be the best argument against, unless it was a recon TU-22M. The Russians lost one in Georgia by a Buk in 2008.

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Rossticus said:

Speculation that the munitions could have incinerated on the way down.

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erudite said:

Shouldn't that cause secondary explosions?
Regardless of what that was, I think Putin will not be happy. He either just lost an expensive missile headed toward a critical target, a strategic bomber, or some sort of transport aircraft airdropping into Kiyv. None of which are good.

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rathAG05 said:

I mean, I'm sure he doesn't want to lose a single plane, but would assume it's just the cost of war and he'll brush it off and press ahead.

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erudite said:

Russia can replace helocopters and single seat fighters. But a strategic bomber? Not so much. They haven't gotten a replacement for the Tu-22M or Tu-160s and the former is almost 50 years old.

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Rapier108 said:

The Tupolev PAK DA (it will get an official designation once in service) should be making its first appearance in the next 2 years. It will be their answer to the B-21 Raider.

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GAC06 said:

Lol. Yeah like the PAK FA is the answer to the F-22?

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Rapier108 said:

Not saying it will be as good, but for Ivan, it is to counter the F-22 and the DA is to be the counterpart to the B-21. They also have another aircraft in development as the answer to the F-35, but I forget what its called right now.

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Ok.

But Russian aerospace is clinging to relevance. There's a reason why their forces are all 70's designs still in low rate production. And even in the 70's they were behind us.

javajaws said:

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Regarding electricity, I'm guessing two things why they still have some:

1) Russia doesn't want a humanitarian crises on their hand after the Ukraine government falls

and

2) The Ukraine government/military is probably so compromised leaving everybody's electronics on probably gets the Russians MORE intelligence than if the electricity was off.

It's not like they need the electricity for defense or anything.

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Russians can triangulate position based on cell signals from what I understand. Having soldiers with phones charged, on, and location positioning on could potentially help Russian units with this capability to locate Ukrainian positions.

Do we trust that Anonymous is actually doing anything?

SPSAg05 said:

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The uploaded image is unavailable

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Anonymous hasn't done anything. Can you list the top 5 things anonymous has done besides get in the news? 4-chan hackers I'd be more onboard with.

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javajaws said:

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Regarding electricity, I'm guessing two things why they still have some:

1) Russia doesn't want a humanitarian crises on their hand after the Ukraine government falls

and

2) The Ukraine government/military is probably so compromised leaving everybody's electronics on probably gets the Russians MORE intelligence than if the electricity was off.

It's not like they need the electricity for defense or anything.

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jabberwalkie09 said:

Russians can triangulate position based on cell signals from what I understand. Having soldiers with phones charged, on, and location positioning on could potentially help Russian units with this capability to locate Ukrainian positions.

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Russians should concentrate on turning their own soldiers phones off

redline248 said:

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Do we trust that Anonymous is actually doing anything?

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I guess I trust that, if Anonymous can do anything, it's going to do it against Russia right now.

Kremlin website appears to be just fine

redline248 said:

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Do we trust that Anonymous is actually doing anything?

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Go to the Kremlin website and find out?

There are on interesting group. I went on a Deep dive on them a few years ago. They are one of those orgs that say they have a lot of power but actually don't, yet somehow do. It's weird and they ebb and flow over time.

That being said, you can never underestimate the collective efforts of a bunch of neck beards riled up and armed with keyboards. And I mean that quite seriously.

Thank you

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SPSAg05 said:

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The uploaded image is unavailable

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10thYrSr said:

Anonymous hasn't done anything. Can you list the top 5 things anonymous has done besides get in the news? 4-chan hackers I'd be more onboard with. Anonymous is a deep state organization that threatens actions based on a successful hack many years. Ago. They aren't anything now, but you wouldn't know that because the news hasn't told you so.

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javajaws said:

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Regarding electricity, I'm guessing two things why they still have some:

1) Russia doesn't want a humanitarian crises on their hand after the Ukraine government falls

and

2) The Ukraine government/military is probably so compromised leaving everybody's electronics on probably gets the Russians MORE intelligence than if the electricity was off.

It's not like they need the electricity for defense or anything.

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jabberwalkie09 said:

Russians can triangulate position based on cell signals from what I understand. Having soldiers with phones charged, on, and location positioning on could potentially help Russian units with this capability to locate Ukrainian positions.

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GAC06 said:

Russians should concentrate on turning their own soldiers phones off

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Shhhhh don't tell them that it works both ways!!!!