https://instagr.am/p/CaYoGSGspPA

New follow

Jayhawk said:

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crowman2010 said:

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Jayhawk said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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According to UK MOD: Ukrainian forces holding one prong of the Russian advance toward Kyiv at Chernihiv — Ukraine’s 1st tank brigade is based right near there. https://t.co/WbfGu2U35l

— Nolan Peterson (@nolanwpeterson) February 25, 2022

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That last bullet is critical. The Ukrainian Army has turned in an historic and heroic performance on day 1, and shown their countrymen that effective resistance is possible.

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...but yet futile

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It's not futile. Even if they lose the conventional fight, heroic resistance begets martyrs which fortifies the national identity. The Irish lost a lot of battles and wars but the memory of their heros persisted until they won independence.

The Russians have got a bloody nose and have been humiliated on day 1. Elite VkV being run off the Antonov Design Bureau field fleeing into the forest was not in the based chessmaster's master plan.

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What makes you think Russia has a bloody nose? Honestly curious. I'm not getting the same sense.

Member of Ukraine parliament on fox says it was Russian aircraft shot down by Ukr aircraft.

So who the f knows

Jayhawk said:

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crowman2010 said:

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Jayhawk said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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According to UK MOD: Ukrainian forces holding one prong of the Russian advance toward Kyiv at Chernihiv — Ukraine’s 1st tank brigade is based right near there. https://t.co/WbfGu2U35l

— Nolan Peterson (@nolanwpeterson) February 25, 2022

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That last bullet is critical. The Ukrainian Army has turned in an historic and heroic performance on day 1, and shown their countrymen that effective resistance is possible.

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...but yet futile

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It's not futile. Even if they lose the conventional fight, heroic resistance begets martyrs which fortifies the national identity. The Irish lost a lot of battles and wars but the memory of their heros persisted until they won independence.

The Russians have got a bloody nose and have been humiliated on day 1. Elite VkV being run off the Antonov Design Bureau field fleeing into the forest was not in the based chessmaster's master plan.

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What are you basing this on?

JobSecurity said:

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🇺🇦🇷🇺⚡️The object shot down over Kiev was a Russian "Kalibr" cruise missile - Ukrainian Deputy Minister of the Internal Affairs Anton Gerashchenko pic.twitter.com/2EuPGndhcB

— OSINT UKRAINE (@OSINT_Ukraine) February 25, 2022

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I still don't buy that. If you look up some of the B-52 kills that were recorded over N Vietnam it looks very similar. Lots of fuel burning off and an aerodynamic spin to the main wreak. I don't think a cruise missile burns like that.

On another note, why did we not at least provide them with CRAM or other tech that would be effective against cruise missiles and other air threats?

Rapier108 said:

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And why would there be a Russian SAM inside Kiev?

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I mean... MANPADS from the VDV? I doubt it since the lockon window of a supersonic aircraft is so fast you need to have it fly directly over.

Maybe it was a AA missle from Chernobyl/Belarus?

They have a pretty large range

aeroag14 said:

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New World Ag said:

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CNN reporter in Kiev saying Ukraine reporting it was a Ukraine SU-27 shot down by Russian forces

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there were multiple things shot down. Couple smaller objects. Either cruise missiles or fighters. And one larger plane. A multi jet larger (bomberesque) plane.

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And there's no Russian anti-aircraft battery outside of Kyiv.

Yeah. I'm thinking people are reading the "good" stories but not considering the others

rathAG05 said:

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Jayhawk said:

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crowman2010 said:

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Jayhawk said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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According to UK MOD: Ukrainian forces holding one prong of the Russian advance toward Kyiv at Chernihiv — Ukraine’s 1st tank brigade is based right near there. https://t.co/WbfGu2U35l

— Nolan Peterson (@nolanwpeterson) February 25, 2022

---

That last bullet is critical. The Ukrainian Army has turned in an historic and heroic performance on day 1, and shown their countrymen that effective resistance is possible.

---

...but yet futile

---

It's not futile. Even if they lose the conventional fight, heroic resistance begets martyrs which fortifies the national identity. The Irish lost a lot of battles and wars but the memory of their heros persisted until they won independence.

The Russians have got a bloody nose and have been humiliated on day 1. Elite VkV being run off the Antonov Design Bureau field fleeing into the forest was not in the based chessmaster's master plan.

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What makes you think Russia has a bloody nose? Honestly curious. I'm not getting the same sense.

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This. Russia could go full blown and nothing could stop them except outside forces.

Rossticus said:

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aeroag14 said:

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New World Ag said:

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CNN reporter in Kiev saying Ukraine reporting it was a Ukraine SU-27 shot down by Russian forces

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there were multiple things shot down. Couple smaller objects. Either cruise missiles or fighters. And one larger plane. A multi jet larger (bomberesque) plane.

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And there's no Russian anti-aircraft battery outside of Kyiv.

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RIght that is the confusing part. I dont buy that a Uke fighter was shot down.

erudite said:

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Rossticus said:

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erudite said:

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Rapier108 said:

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JB!98 said:

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Rapier108 said:

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erudite said:

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KYcatTXaggie said:

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If that was a Bomber why is it flying so low? Transport doesn't make a lot of sense either.

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Maybe SU-24 on some sort of attack run/SEAD operation?

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Or SU-34. Would be nice to have knocked down one of those. It is one of Russia's newer toys. The SU-24 is late 60s vintage.

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That looks like a lot more fuel and debris than a fencer or a fullback.

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Oh I agree. That's why I said earlier I think it was a TU-22M, if it was a bomber.

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No bombs would be the best argument against, unless it was a recon TU-22M. The Russians lost one in Georgia by a Buk in 2008.

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Speculation that the munitions could have incinerated on the way down.

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Shouldn't that cause secondary explosions?
Regardless of what that was, I think Putin will not be happy. He either just lost an expensive missile headed toward a critical target, a strategic bomber, or some sort of transport aircraft airdropping into Kiyv. None of which are good.

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I mean, I'm sure he doesn't want to lose a single plane, but would assume it's just the cost of war and he'll brush it off and press ahead.

rathAG05 said:

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Jayhawk said:

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crowman2010 said:

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Jayhawk said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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According to UK MOD: Ukrainian forces holding one prong of the Russian advance toward Kyiv at Chernihiv — Ukraine’s 1st tank brigade is based right near there. https://t.co/WbfGu2U35l

— Nolan Peterson (@nolanwpeterson) February 25, 2022

---

That last bullet is critical. The Ukrainian Army has turned in an historic and heroic performance on day 1, and shown their countrymen that effective resistance is possible.

---

...but yet futile

---

It's not futile. Even if they lose the conventional fight, heroic resistance begets martyrs which fortifies the national identity. The Irish lost a lot of battles and wars but the memory of their heros persisted until they won independence.

The Russians have got a bloody nose and have been humiliated on day 1. Elite VkV being run off the Antonov Design Bureau field fleeing into the forest was not in the based chessmaster's master plan.

---

What makes you think Russia has a bloody nose? Honestly curious. I'm not getting the same sense.

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They have not achieved their Day 1 objectives. Their airborne assault on the Hostomel airfield ended in a fiasco after a Ukrainian Army counterattack drove off the VkV unit before Russian reinforcements arrived. Not too mention what appear to be several instances of platoon size Russian units surrendering .

Overall the weight of numbers is what it is, but this is not going to plan I think that is obvious to people who have a background in these sorts of things.

JB!98 said:

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JobSecurity said:

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🇺🇦🇷🇺⚡️The object shot down over Kiev was a Russian "Kalibr" cruise missile - Ukrainian Deputy Minister of the Internal Affairs Anton Gerashchenko pic.twitter.com/2EuPGndhcB

— OSINT UKRAINE (@OSINT_Ukraine) February 25, 2022

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I still don't buy that. If you look up some of the B-52 kills that were recorded over N Vietnam it looks very similar. Lots of fuel burning off and an aerodynamic spin to the main wreak. I don't think a cruise missile burns like that.

On another note, why did we not at least provide them with CRAM or other tech that would be effective against cruise missiles and other air threats?

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My guess would be training and logistics? CIWS also requires radar lock on... Which the solution is to fling a cheap missile in front of the engagement envelope and an anti-radiation missile behind to blow up the transmitter.

Agthatbuilds said:

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https://instagr.am/p/CaYoGSGspPA

New follow

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Seriously, read the stories on this account

2 AN-124s on the way but still on north side of Belarus. Bringing a lot of something.

Jay Reimenschneider said:

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If Russia can hit our grid so easily, why does Ukraine still have power?

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A comfortable distracted populace is less likely to fight you door to door?

Jayhawk said:

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rathAG05 said:

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Jayhawk said:

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crowman2010 said:

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Jayhawk said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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According to UK MOD: Ukrainian forces holding one prong of the Russian advance toward Kyiv at Chernihiv — Ukraine’s 1st tank brigade is based right near there. https://t.co/WbfGu2U35l

— Nolan Peterson (@nolanwpeterson) February 25, 2022

---

That last bullet is critical. The Ukrainian Army has turned in an historic and heroic performance on day 1, and shown their countrymen that effective resistance is possible.

---

...but yet futile

---

It's not futile. Even if they lose the conventional fight, heroic resistance begets martyrs which fortifies the national identity. The Irish lost a lot of battles and wars but the memory of their heros persisted until they won independence.

The Russians have got a bloody nose and have been humiliated on day 1. Elite VkV being run off the Antonov Design Bureau field fleeing into the forest was not in the based chessmaster's master plan.

---

What makes you think Russia has a bloody nose? Honestly curious. I'm not getting the same sense.

---

They have not achieved their Day 1 objectives. Their airborne assault on the Hostomel airfield ended in a fiasco after a Ukrainian Army counterattack drove off the VkV unit before Russian reinforcements arrived. Not too mention what appear to be several instances of platoon size Russian units surrendering .

Overall the weight of numbers is what it is, but this is not going to plan I think that is obvious to people who have a background in these sorts of things.

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Just seems like you would see video of that everywhere. I've only heard that from you. Where are you seeing this?

Jay Reimenschneider said:

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If Russia can hit our grid so easily, why does Ukraine still have power?

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Because they don't want to have to repair it afterwards?

rathAG05 said:

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erudite said:

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Rossticus said:

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erudite said:

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Rapier108 said:

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JB!98 said:

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Rapier108 said:

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erudite said:

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KYcatTXaggie said:

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If that was a Bomber why is it flying so low? Transport doesn't make a lot of sense either.

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Maybe SU-24 on some sort of attack run/SEAD operation?

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Or SU-34. Would be nice to have knocked down one of those. It is one of Russia's newer toys. The SU-24 is late 60s vintage.

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That looks like a lot more fuel and debris than a fencer or a fullback.

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Oh I agree. That's why I said earlier I think it was a TU-22M, if it was a bomber.

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No bombs would be the best argument against, unless it was a recon TU-22M. The Russians lost one in Georgia by a Buk in 2008.

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Speculation that the munitions could have incinerated on the way down.

---

Shouldn't that cause secondary explosions?
Regardless of what that was, I think Putin will not be happy. He either just lost an expensive missile headed toward a critical target, a strategic bomber, or some sort of transport aircraft airdropping into Kiyv. None of which are good.

---

I mean, I'm sure he doesn't want to lose a single plane, but would assume it's just the cost of war and he'll brush it off and press ahead.

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Russia can replace helocopters and single seat fighters. But a strategic bomber? Not so much. They haven't gotten a replacement for the Tu-22M or Tu-160s and the former is almost 50 years old.

rathAG05 said:

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Jayhawk said:

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rathAG05 said:

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Jayhawk said:

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crowman2010 said:

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Jayhawk said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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According to UK MOD: Ukrainian forces holding one prong of the Russian advance toward Kyiv at Chernihiv — Ukraine’s 1st tank brigade is based right near there. https://t.co/WbfGu2U35l

— Nolan Peterson (@nolanwpeterson) February 25, 2022

---

That last bullet is critical. The Ukrainian Army has turned in an historic and heroic performance on day 1, and shown their countrymen that effective resistance is possible.

---

...but yet futile

---

It's not futile. Even if they lose the conventional fight, heroic resistance begets martyrs which fortifies the national identity. The Irish lost a lot of battles and wars but the memory of their heros persisted until they won independence.

The Russians have got a bloody nose and have been humiliated on day 1. Elite VkV being run off the Antonov Design Bureau field fleeing into the forest was not in the based chessmaster's master plan.

---

What makes you think Russia has a bloody nose? Honestly curious. I'm not getting the same sense.

---

They have not achieved their Day 1 objectives. Their airborne assault on the Hostomel airfield ended in a fiasco after a Ukrainian Army counterattack drove off the VkV unit before Russian reinforcements arrived. Not too mention what appear to be several instances of platoon size Russian units surrendering .

Overall the weight of numbers is what it is, but this is not going to plan I think that is obvious to people who have a background in these sorts of things.

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Just seems like you would see video of that everywhere. I've only heard that from you. Where are you seeing this?

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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10549353/Ukraine-RETAKEN-Kyiv-airport-Russian-special-forces-claims-defense-minister.html

erudite said:

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rathAG05 said:

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erudite said:

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Rossticus said:

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erudite said:

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Rapier108 said:

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JB!98 said:

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Rapier108 said:

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erudite said:

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KYcatTXaggie said:

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If that was a Bomber why is it flying so low? Transport doesn't make a lot of sense either.

---

Maybe SU-24 on some sort of attack run/SEAD operation?

---

Or SU-34. Would be nice to have knocked down one of those. It is one of Russia's newer toys. The SU-24 is late 60s vintage.

---

That looks like a lot more fuel and debris than a fencer or a fullback.

---

Oh I agree. That's why I said earlier I think it was a TU-22M, if it was a bomber.

---

No bombs would be the best argument against, unless it was a recon TU-22M. The Russians lost one in Georgia by a Buk in 2008.

---

Speculation that the munitions could have incinerated on the way down.

---

Shouldn't that cause secondary explosions?
Regardless of what that was, I think Putin will not be happy. He either just lost an expensive missile headed toward a critical target, a strategic bomber, or some sort of transport aircraft airdropping into Kiyv. None of which are good.

---

I mean, I'm sure he doesn't want to lose a single plane, but would assume it's just the cost of war and he'll brush it off and press ahead.

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Russia can replace helocopters and single seat fighters. But a strategic bomber? Not so much. They haven't gotten a replacement for the Tu-22M or Tu-160s and the former is almost 50 years old.

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The Tupolev PAK DA (it will get an official designation once in service) should be making its first appearance in the next 2 years. It will be their answer to the B-21 Raider.

$250k to blow up three guys and a goat. I'm rolling. Lol.

Rossticus said:

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2 AN-124s on the way but still on north side of Belarus. Bringing a lot of something.

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Not VDV since that is a "Air Transport Division" only aircraft. My guess would be large AA since planes/helicopters would just fly.

erudite said:

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Rossticus said:

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erudite said:

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Rapier108 said:

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JB!98 said:

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Rapier108 said:

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erudite said:

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KYcatTXaggie said:

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If that was a Bomber why is it flying so low? Transport doesn't make a lot of sense either.

---

Maybe SU-24 on some sort of attack run/SEAD operation?

---

Or SU-34. Would be nice to have knocked down one of those. It is one of Russia's newer toys. The SU-24 is late 60s vintage.

---

That looks like a lot more fuel and debris than a fencer or a fullback.

---

Oh I agree. That's why I said earlier I think it was a TU-22M, if it was a bomber.

---

No bombs would be the best argument against, unless it was a recon TU-22M. The Russians lost one in Georgia by a Buk in 2008.

---

Speculation that the munitions could have incinerated on the way down.

---

Shouldn't that cause secondary explosions?
Regardless of what that was, I think Putin will not be happy. He either just lost an expensive missile headed toward a critical target, a strategic bomber, or some sort of transport aircraft airdropping into Kiyv. None of which are good.

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No. Bombs are typically high explosives that need to be set off by low explosives. For instance, C4 actually just burns of light it on fire because it's a high explosive. Med a blasting cap and low explosive to set it off.

That used to not be the case, like with the Forrestal. Bombs cooked off in the deck fire because of their composition and the fact that were basically expired. With newer munitions, they'd have just fizzled.

Jay Reimenschneider said:

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If Russia can hit our grid so easily, why does Ukraine still have power?

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My biggest head scratcher of all. It's textbook to secure or knockout the vital infrastructure of a city when fighting. The sooner the better.

It's why I have been questioning the goals of this invasion from the get go and have stated as such already. It's awful and people are dying but ultimately this seems like a lighthearted attempt to take over small sections piecemeal. The russians are not committing the units and tactics I would have suspected.

I can see the Russians playing this as safe as possible perhaps which would account for some of this and actually leads credence to what Putin has been saying all along. That this is a military operation and not an invasion.

ETA:To clarify, yes this is an invasion but not a REAL invasion it seems like is what I am getting at. Russia is hamstrung somehow and I do not know the reasons why. Self inflicted? Uke resistance really that effective? Trying to stay good in PR image? Not rebuild a shattered country?


I'm so confused.



(Oops, replied instead of amend)

I’m expecting to hear more combinations of these claims over the next hour

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 25, 2022

erudite said:

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Rossticus said:

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2 AN-124s on the way but still on north side of Belarus. Bringing a lot of something.

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Not VDV since that is a "Air Transport Division" only aircraft. My guess would be large AA since planes/helicopters would just fly.

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Or armor if they've lost enough to javelins?

Rapier108 said:

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erudite said:

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rathAG05 said:

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erudite said:

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Rossticus said:

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erudite said:

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Rapier108 said:

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JB!98 said:

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Rapier108 said:

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erudite said:

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KYcatTXaggie said:

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If that was a Bomber why is it flying so low? Transport doesn't make a lot of sense either.

---

Maybe SU-24 on some sort of attack run/SEAD operation?

---

Or SU-34. Would be nice to have knocked down one of those. It is one of Russia's newer toys. The SU-24 is late 60s vintage.

---

That looks like a lot more fuel and debris than a fencer or a fullback.

---

Oh I agree. That's why I said earlier I think it was a TU-22M, if it was a bomber.

---

No bombs would be the best argument against, unless it was a recon TU-22M. The Russians lost one in Georgia by a Buk in 2008.

---

Speculation that the munitions could have incinerated on the way down.

---

Shouldn't that cause secondary explosions?
Regardless of what that was, I think Putin will not be happy. He either just lost an expensive missile headed toward a critical target, a strategic bomber, or some sort of transport aircraft airdropping into Kiyv. None of which are good.

---

I mean, I'm sure he doesn't want to lose a single plane, but would assume it's just the cost of war and he'll brush it off and press ahead.

---

Russia can replace helocopters and single seat fighters. But a strategic bomber? Not so much. They haven't gotten a replacement for the Tu-22M or Tu-160s and the former is almost 50 years old.

---

The Tupolev PAK DA (it will get an official designation once in service) should be making its first appearance in the next 2 years. It will be their answer to the B-21 Raider.

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Lol. Yeah like the PAK FA is the answer to the F-22?

Eliminatus said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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Zelensky: today we lost 137 military and civilians, including 10 officers. All defenders of the Snake island are dead.
There have been reports about 11 female soldiers who died after Putin’s missile hit their barracks. #StandWithUkraine

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) February 24, 2022

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As crass as it may seem, the defenders of Snake Island are the blueprint for martyrdom that Ukrainians can use to rally around.

Last stands are the stuff of legends. (No matter the circumstances really. I imagine they were all killed by standoff fire)

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That's a much lower body count than I expected from the strikes, bombardment, and invasion on multiple fronts.

I assume Russia is trying to do this like Israel when it attacks militants in Gaza, and minimize the body count (and collateral damage) lest it be used against the stronger force.

The snake island attack seems like a mistake on that front.

.

Could just be poor execution. Or maybe they intend to annex Ukraine and want to minimize cleanup costs.

Faustus said:

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Eliminatus said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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Zelensky: today we lost 137 military and civilians, including 10 officers. All defenders of the Snake island are dead.
There have been reports about 11 female soldiers who died after Putin’s missile hit their barracks. #StandWithUkraine

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) February 24, 2022

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As crass as it may seem, the defenders of Snake Island are the blueprint for martyrdom that Ukrainians can use to rally around.

Last stands are the stuff of legends. (No matter the circumstances really. I imagine they were all killed by standoff fire)

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That's a much lower body count than I expected from the strikes, bombardment, and invasion on multiple fronts.

I assume Russia is trying to do this like Israel when it attacks militants in Gaza, and minimize the body count (and collateral damage) lest it be used against the stronger force.

The snake island attack seems like a mistake on that front.

.

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You believe those numbers? Come on man.