***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,642,367 Views | 47868 Replies | Last: 2 days ago by 74OA
AlaskanAg99
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I'd there a breakdown of aid given to Uktaine by country?

Is the US shouldering the bulk. Yet again?
74OA
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Today's SITREP.
GAC06
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benchmark said:

Ulysses90 said:

I would think it more likely that they are sending the M1156 Precision Guidance Kit for conventional 155mm projectiles than Excalibur. There's a big cost difference (not that cost has been an obstacle for US aid thus far).
Good read. Thanks for sharing. What a novel idea ... just cobble together an accurate weapon by slapping on a guidance system to an existing munition. Wondering if we haven't previously provided these based on some of the video's we've seen. M982's cost about the same as a Javelin and we've sent them over 6,000 ... so not sure if cost is the issue.

Here's another link - M1156 Precision Guidance Kit. Accuracy comparison ....
Quote:

A conventional unguided M549A1 155 mm artillery projectile has a circular error probability (CEP) of 267 m (876 ft) at its maximum range, meaning that half of the rounds can be expected to land within 267 meters of their intended target. This has made unguided artillery dangerous to use in close combat for fear of friendly fire and collateral damage. The M982 Excalibur was fielded as a guided shell that effectively hit within 6 m (20 ft) of a target, but the Army developed the XM1156 as a cheaper alternative. The PGK fuse can be screwed onto existing M549A1 and M795 projectiles, be fired from M109A6 Paladin and M777A2 Howitzer artillery systems, and hits within 50 m (160 ft) of the target at any range.



That's not cobbling anything together. It's a kit that was developed for that purpose. It's not the same thing as suggesting slapping new guidance on existing ballistic missiles that are being phased out anyway and are already capable of hitting the bridge or other precision targets if we actually provided them, which we haven't as far as I know. I hope that helps.
74OA
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Putin continues to lie about deliberately targeting civilians. FACT CHECK
74OA
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Interesting interview with a Ukrainian officer.

Waffledynamics
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74OA said:

Interesting interview with a Ukrainian officer.




An excellent read, thanks!
Waffledynamics
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Previously speculated Southern offensive incoming?
Quote:

Zelensky ordered to liberate the south of Ukraine, - Minister of Defense Reznikov
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-july-zelensky-ordered-to-liberate-the-south-of-ukraine

ETA:

Quote:

Vice PM of Ukraine Vereshuk is urging population in temporary occupied territories in southern regions of Ukraine to evacuate
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-july-vice-pm-of-ukraine-vereshuk-is-urging-population
Waffledynamics
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I'm curious if the missile launch was confused for explosions, or if both actually happened since the reports are within minutes of each other on LiveUaMap.

Quote:

Reports of several explosions in Luhansk
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-july-reports-of-several-explosions-in-luhansk

Quote:

Missile launch over Luhansk
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-july-missile-launch-over-luhansk

Waffledynamics
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Ukrainians doing work in the Kherson region.

Quote:

Ukrainian missile units conducted 2 strikes against command posts, gatherings of equipment and field ammunition warehouses near Chornobaivka, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-july-ukrainian-missile-units-conducted-2-strikes-against

Quote:

Explosions reported at Rosguard base in Kherson
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-july-explosions-reported-at-rosguard-base-in-kherson

Rosguard = Russian National Guard

Quote:

Big fire at 2nd Tavrichesk in Kherson
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-july-big-fire-at-2nd-tavrichesk-in-kherson

Waffledynamics
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Let's swing over to the Donetsk City region:

Quote:

Fire at cars parts market at Hirnycha street in Donetsk as result of shelling
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-july-fire-at-cars-parts-market-at-hirnycha-street-in-donetsk


Quote:

Fire burning at oil depot in Kirovsky district in Donetsk
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-july-fire-burning-at-oil-depot-in-kirovsky-district-in



Quote:

Smoke visible at Putilovka after shelling
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-july-smoke-visible-at-putilovka-after-shelling-
74OA
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Was it here that someone asked some time back for a book recommendation on armor employment?

Dunno why it came to mind just now, but here's a novel that does a great job of educating and entertaining.

Team Yankee
Waffledynamics
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Anyone know what this means?
Waffledynamics
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By the way, I want to speculate further that I predict Russia will kick off an offensive from Belarus at roughly the same time a Ukrainian offensive to retake their South starts. Russia will want to divert resources.

Just my amateur take.
PJYoung
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Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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Archive to avoid the paywall and prevent sneaky edits.

https://archive.ph/SeLZq
74OA
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Interesting. HIMARS
benchmark
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74OA said:

Interesting interview with a Ukrainian officer.
Indeed. Thanks for sharing. From the tread - a few interesting nuggets on tank repairs. Apparently, repair specialists and equip are precious. I read somewhere else about a Russian repair facility in Dzhankoy about 120 miles behind the front. Sounds like a WW2 Schweinfurt ball bearing factory to me so add these locations to the ATACMS target list.
Quote:

6) Both sides bring back tanks 200-300km behind the lines for repair, the transporting takes 5-6 hours. No one wants to risk the specialists capable of carrying out the repairs, or the specialized machinery needed for in-the-field repairs.

14) There are 3 tank repair plants left in Russia, and their ability to repair tanks or pull tanks out of storage is limited (not more than 100-200 units per month)

20) The transporting of our tanks into Europe is a significant help, a single factory is able to repair 20-30 written off tanks per month. They have a large supply of specialists. In total we get back 2-3 tank companies every month.

* Context needed for the next one. A few months ago, Ukrainian TV ran a story about a tank repair plant in Kiev and showed it on camera. Shortly after, the plant was struck by Kalibr missiles and destroyed

21) This cost us many excellent specialists and those responsible should be prosecuted.
Waffledynamics
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Fascinating part:

Quote:

Another thing regarding the effectiveness of Ukrainian rocket strikes. Many write about how to minimise losses from them. Aside from strengthening air defence it is suggested to disperse ammunition storages, avoid bringing armoured vehicles to one base, avoid lining up helicopters in one line, and decentralise everything in general. But you see what the problem is you can decentralise, but this will be a completely different army, not the Russian-Soviet army. Decentralisation is contrary to the structure of not just the army itself but the whole state structure in general. Indeed, along with distribution of ammunitions to different stockpiles, along with moving vehicles to various forests, also the powers must be transferred down to these forests and stockpiles. But these powers for hundreds of years have been carefully focused in one location. And that is how the authority preserved itself. But here decentralisation. This is worse than military losses.
Whether or not Russia succeeds, this could have interesting domestic political implications for the Russian government. They would need to beat decentralization into their troops and then beat it right out of them as soon as they came back to peace.
Waffledynamics
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Another explosion in the the occupied Kherson region, just recently reported on LiveUAMap:

Quote:

Reports of explosions in Nova Kakhovka
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-july-reports-of-explosions-in-nova-kakhovka

tweet [staff edit to fix broken embed]

There appears to be a dam there.

benchmark
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Waffledynamics said:

There appears to be a dam there.
There's a major highway across the dam and it's about 35 miles upstream from Kherson. It's one of only 2 river crossings over the Dnipro until Zaporizhzhia 150 miles upstream from the dam. SOL if they can't take one of those 2.
Waffledynamics
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Go to 7:08 for an Italian completely wrecking a Russian state TV loser, lol.
Waffledynamics
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benchmark said:

Waffledynamics said:

There appears to be a dam there.
There's a major highway across the dam and it's about 35 miles upstream from Kherson. It's one of only 2 river crossings over the Dnipro until Zaporizhzhia 150 miles upstream from the dam. SOL if they can't take one of those 2.
So Ukraine would not want to take out the dam, but control it. Good to understand.
MouthBQ98
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Anything on the previous page worth noting? My browser crashes every time I try to check that page. Did someone link something ridiculous?
Waffledynamics
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That's strange. I'm not sure why that would be happening.
Eliminatus
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MouthBQ98 said:

Anything on the previous page worth noting? My browser crashes every time I try to check that page. Did someone link something ridiculous?
Mainly discussion on taking out Crimean bridge and if USA is/will provide munitions with extended range into the hundreds of kms.

Also, where is Rossticus question
ABATTBQ11
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His last post on the site was 6/22
Jetpilot86
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MouthBQ98 said:

Anything on the previous page worth noting? My browser crashes every time I try to check that page. Did someone link something ridiculous?
I was having similar problems
ATX_AG_08
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My browser has been crashing on this and the political tweet thread.
benchmark
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Jetpilot86 said:

MouthBQ98 said:

Anything on the previous page worth noting? My browser crashes every time I try to check that page. Did someone link something ridiculous?
I was having similar problems
Desktop browser works but the not mobile browser. Flag this post or another as "Spam" and maybe staff will notice.
benchmark
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Speculating .... ammo dumps are important now but sometime soon HIMARS may start targeting air defense .... radar, launchers, etc. Forward air surveillance will become critical if they want to advance far enough to put the southern coastline and the Crimean border within HIMARS range.

Waffledynamics
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Can't post the screenshots of LiveUAMap like I would on my computer right now, but Russia is picking up shelling along the frontline between Kherson and Mylolaiv.

Big time bombardment of Kharkiv in the NE happening as well.
Waffledynamics
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Looks like the martial law in Russian occupied areas of the Kharkiv region didn't prevent this. Too bad.

Quote:

Head of occupation administration of Velykyi Burluk dead as result of car explosion


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/11-july-head-of-occupation-administration-of-velykyi-burluk
Waffledynamics
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Seeing more of this type of attack targeting Odesa lately. I speculate that they think or know there are Ukrainian assets in place there that will be used in the coming Ukrainian offensive in the South. That's just my speculation, though.

Quote:

Russia Su-27, Su-30 and Su-35 jets launched 7 Kh-31 missiles at Odesa region


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/11-july-russia-su27-su30-and-su35-jets-launched-7-kh31-missiles
Eliminatus
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benchmark said:

Speculating .... ammo dumps are important now but sometime soon HIMARS may start targeting air defense .... radar, launchers, etc. Forward air surveillance will become critical if they want to advance far enough to put the southern coastline and the Crimean border within HIMARS range.



I agree. The only problem I see is rocket availability. They have to be VERY selective with what they hit. Will they have enough to maintain the pressure on Russia's supply and ease the bombardments AND suppress their AA to a point where combat sorties will actually be feasible. Can they do it with what they have and in the pipeline in the very near future? Honestly don't know.
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