More detail on the recent Ukrainian return visit to Snake Island.

docb said:

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Alan Combs Zombie said:

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docb said:

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74OA said:

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More HIMARS headed to Ukraine.

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Looks like we are starting to get really serious about turning the tide of this thing. Time to send those murderous *******s to rot or back across the border.

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Turning the tide you mean Russia keeping its current gains?

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I mean turning the Russians into worm dirt

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The West needs to do as much as they can, as fast as they can. This "aid" and sanctions will all fall apart when winter hit Europe in a 4-5 month. It will be every country for itself when their people are freezing and industry has ground to a halt.

Ukraine needs to take back the south and isolate Crimea ASAP or everything bogs down over winter and it all starts again next March.

Per this video, Ukrainian military has reached 1 million active personnel.

Also, there's some Switchblade footage.

DCPD158 said:

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docb said:

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Alan Combs Zombie said:

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docb said:

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74OA said:

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More HIMARS headed to Ukraine.

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Looks like we are starting to get really serious about turning the tide of this thing. Time to send those murderous *******s to rot or back across the border.

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Turning the tide you mean Russia keeping its current gains?

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I mean turning the Russians into worm dirt

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The West needs to do as much as they can, as fast as they can. This "aid" and sanctions will all fall apart when winter hit Europe in a 4-5 month. It will be every country for itself when their people are freezing and industry has ground to a halt.

Ukraine needs to take back the south and isolate Crimea ASAP or everything bogs down over winter and it all starts again next March.

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When the ground is frozen even the swampy areas will become navigable by Russian tracked vehicles while it also becomes difficult for Ukranians to dig infantry fighting positions in many of those areas. Add in the cloudy skies in winter making aerial and satellite imagery difficult and winter could become dangerous for Ukraine.

Someone mentioned Nikopol earlier. Funny you should say that.

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MLRS launches from Enerhodar. Explosions were audible in Nikopol

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/8-july-mlrs-launches-from-enerhodar-explosions-were-audible

https://t.me/hyevuy_dnepr/30696

Not sure if they were targeted at Nikopol or just audible from there.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Bridge would be destroyed by a dedicated missile or air strike. Ground assault would happen much farther north as a full scale offensive across a wide area to take advantage of the supply disruption. Basically, knock out the bridge behind the lines to limit resupply to troops in the south, then attack those troops en masse and deplete their existing supplies to push them out before the bridge is repaired. If at all possible, get within artillery or MLRS range of the bridge to keep it out and prevent counter offensives, but that might be a long shot. They'd barge to basically retake Crimea to get within range of even HIMARS without ATACMS rounds.

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Honestly, I'm not sure we have anything in our kinetic inventory to drop the Kerch bridge from 200 miles. An air strike is a suicide mission and it would take multiple 2000 lb warheads to take out the concrete spans. So scratch that. Ditto naval attacks.

A 500 lb warhead would work if targeting the upper chords of the steel arched section. But the seeker needs to be pinpoint accurate - so that probably eliminates extended range Harpoons with radar seekers. SLAM-ER's are accurate - but they're air launched and don't have the range. ATACM's have almost everything needed - except their GPS guidance isn't accurate enough. IR image guidance is what's needed but it's not avail on ATACM's.

What am I forgetting?

benchmark said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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Bridge would be destroyed by a dedicated missile or air strike. Ground assault would happen much farther north as a full scale offensive across a wide area to take advantage of the supply disruption. Basically, knock out the bridge behind the lines to limit resupply to troops in the south, then attack those troops en masse and deplete their existing supplies to push them out before the bridge is repaired. If at all possible, get within artillery or MLRS range of the bridge to keep it out and prevent counter offensives, but that might be a long shot. They'd barge to basically retake Crimea to get within range of even HIMARS without ATACMS rounds.

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Honestly, I'm not sure we have anything in our kinetic inventory to drop the Kerch bridge from 200 miles. An air strike is a suicide mission and it would take multiple 2000 lb warheads to take out the concrete spans. So scratch that. Ditto naval attacks.

A 500 lb warhead would work if targeting the upper chords of the steel arched section. But the seeker needs to be pinpoint accurate - so that probably eliminates extended range Harpoons with radar seekers. SLAM-ER's are accurate - but they're air launched and don't have the range. ATACM's have almost everything needed - except their GPS guidance isn't accurate enough. IR image guidance is what's needed but it's not avail on ATACM's.

What am I forgetting?

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If it was us? I would think SEAD and DEAD would be in order first along with a little jamming. Then you put the 2000lb bombs right where they need to be. The Ukes do not have that capability, but we do.

Couple of brave Uke's with C4 in the dark?

Theres 2 separate bridges. One autos and one rail. The rail one is more vital but its structure type is far more difficult to cause catastrophic failure on unless the strike was conducted on a train carrying significant tonnage of explosives. Even then no guarantee it gets completely wiped out.

The hwy bridge is a tied arch with the deck supported by cables which could be cut with very little explosives but we really dont have any launched weapons designed to do that. DET chord carried in a couple of back packs would be enough but your not going to get 20 mins to set charges like that.

I dont see the bridge coming down or being attacked. I do see whatever comes across and gets within 40 miles of the front now vulnerable to attack.

A pair of Mig 29s on kamikaze attacks could take it out with direct hits on the arches.

Not sure if the Tomahawk's Digital Scene Matching Area Correlator (camera) is accurate enough to target the arches. But is worthless if Russian smoke generators are active.

I don't know that it's realistic or practical to suggest kamikaze missions with precious few Ukrainian fighter jets/pilots as it is. They'll have to find another way.

We're all experts because of Google and Holiday Inn Express.

IMO, taking out the 750 ft tied-arch Kerch bridge section with a modified MGM-140 ATACM seems possible. ATACM's have the launchers (M142 or M270), the range (190 miles), the primary guidance (GPS/inertial), and the warhead (500 lb WDU-18B - same as used by anti-ship Harpoons). However, a direct hit is needed on the upper box-section chords at the arch apex. GPS isn't that precise. To be that accurate it needs infrared imaging for pinpoint guidance during the terminal phase - similar to the technology used by Javelin and AGM-84 IR seekers. Also, we know the Army is currently testing similar seekers/trackers for their future Precision Strike Missile (PrSM). The technology exists.

Probably not a simple fix, but modifying an ATACM with IR imaging guidance seems doable. It's off the shelf technology we're already using on other weapons. Hopefully, someone at Lockheed/Raytheon has been working on a 'bridge buster' mod for the ATACM.

That said, two big questions - survivability and politics. Can a ballistic missile in it's terminal trajectory survive Russia's heavy air defense (S-300 and S-400)? Would the US provide this capability knowing Russia would see this as a major escalation?

GPS is plenty accurate to hit a bridge. Slapping an imaging seeker on a missile is a pipe dream

What about speedboating some demolition engineers right up to that thing in the middle of the night?

GAC06 said:

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GPS is plenty accurate to hit a bridge. Slapping an imaging seeker on a missile is a pipe dream

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Hopefully the mod isn't a pipe dream ... but disagree on the accuracy needed to drop the bridge. Some GPS guided weapons are accurate to within 15 ft CEP ... like the M982 Excalibur. The MGM-140 ATACMS are said to be accurate to within 30 ft CEP. Assuming of course they aren't using GPS jamming near the bridge. If you want to drop the bridge you need a direct hit on each of the 2 upper box chords and they're less than 10 ft wide.

It looks like you basically agreed with my assessment. My weapons expertise is pretty limited to personal weapons and the further & faster it flies I admit Google is my reference or even GAC06. I have been building bridges for 24 years and railroad bridges for the last 10 so I do have some expertise there. Strategy wise limited to my own 9 years as LRRP, studying wars, and observing this one like a hawk as I cant stand evil. As much as I would like to see this supply line severed, I think its a bridge(s) too far.

Somebody asked about sneaking operators in by speed boat. This would be attacking the concrete supports which would require thousands of pounds of HE and not feasible. If you could get a small boat there you might be able to take down an approach span where the columns are much smaller in diameter but you would have to cut several at once and again very difficult to do. Easier done blowing up a cargo ship carrying million pounds of something flammable while underneath and melting the steel.

The Russians hit a Ukrainian bridge with ballistic missiles and although they didn't drop it, they work well enough to stop traffic. My experience with HIMARS is that they hit basically exactly on the grid I gave each time.

GAC06 said:

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GPS is plenty accurate to hit a bridge. Slapping an imaging seeker on a missile is a pipe dream

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Not in a GPS denied environment.

The tomahawk does somewhat have this capability. It compares live imagery to stored imagery to correct its flight path, and Raytheon has built in a data link for the tomahawk to send target pictures back while loitering for identification and selection.

Since we're on the Kerch bridge demo topic, I though I'd throw in a couple of crazy off the wall ideas (just for fun and conversation purposes)…yes, movie type stuff.

Scenario #1: Russian trains have to be transporting serious quantities of fuel tank cars into Crimea 24/7. Insert an SOF team (possibly from Russian/Georgian coastline SW of bridge) and have them secure a remote magnetic detonator to one or more train fuel cars. Maybe intel can identify possible train slow/stop points (at night) along track to attach device or blow up track ahead to create an opportunity to do this. Then a massive KABOOM on bridge. And extra bonus points if there happen to be some ammo cars in the blast radius.

Scenario #2: Since the Russians load all ammo by hand and in wooden crates. Identify a Russian asset/spy etc. who would load a wooden ammo crate (containing secretly hidden remote detonator) onto train at ammo site. Offer this individual an incredible deal, cash, new identity and exfil from Russia. Then a massive KABOOM on bridge.

See I promised a couple of crazy, movie type missions and delivered. Nutty indeed, but imagine the Russian's faces if this somehow succeeded. Humor aside, I guess my point is maybe there is an unexpected way to attack this bridge originating from Russian territory.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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GAC06 said:

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GPS is plenty accurate to hit a bridge. Slapping an imaging seeker on a missile is a pipe dream

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Not in a GPS denied environment.

The tomahawk does somewhat have this capability. It compares live imagery to stored imagery to correct its flight path, and Raytheon has built in a data link for the tomahawk to send target pictures back while loitering for identification and selection.

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The imagery system on the block III tomahawks is 80s technology. I couldn't find any info on whether the latest versions can use image mapping for targeting. But if that won't work, they could laze the target. Air defense will make it difficult to do from the air so special forces might be required.

An alternative would be to use something small like a quad copter to set an IR emitter on the top of the arch. That could be deployed from a zodiac several miles out, dropped from an aircraft, or if we're getting real fancy with a rushed DARPA project, from a submunitions dispenser on another cruise missile.

You guys really need to give up on cobbling together guidance systems on existing weapons

JFABNRGR said:

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Easier done blowing up a cargo ship carrying million pounds of something flammable while underneath and melting the steel.

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Jet fuel can't melt steel beams!

Sheesh, about 15 hours ago as I type this, Russia apparently shelled pretty much the whole frontline.

More 'splosions.

IN THE SOUTH:

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Explosion at reportedly military ammunition warehouses in Kherson

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-july-explosion-at-reportedly-military-ammunition-warehouses

У тимчасово окупованому Херсоні, схоже, нова бавовна на рашистських складах боєприпасів pic.twitter.com/uMm0j5jcuA

— Баба і кіт (@babaikit) July 9, 2022

IN THE EAST:

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Warehouses with ammunition exploded in Khartsyzk overnight

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-july-warehouses-with-ammunition-exploded-in-khartsyzk-overnight

Всем доброе утро
Склад бк в Харцызске взрывался всю ночь
Снаряды разлетались по всему городу pic.twitter.com/bRm0SP9hNP

— СОБАКА УКРОП (@boris0630) July 9, 2022

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Explosions at ammunition warehouses in Irmino

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-july-explosions-at-ammunition-warehouses-in-irmino

#Ирмино. Попали в склад БК. Идёт детонация. pic.twitter.com/cDBxHsRZzl

— Типичный Донецк (@typicaldonetsk) July 9, 2022

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Explosion and fire reported in Mariupol

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-july-explosion-and-fire-reported-in-mariupol

📍Маріуполь. Місцеві повідомляють, що був сильний вибух 💥🔥.
Відео було зняте пару годин тому.
Цікаво. Інформація уточнюється. pic.twitter.com/DfAoaj9fsQ

— Illya Ayzin (@Illya_Ayzin) July 9, 2022

GAC06 said:

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You guys really need to give up on cobbling together guidance systems on existing weapons

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Possibly. Otherwise, it's either business as usual or short traffic stops for road repairs.

ETA: At 6:22, he mentions speculation that the US has agreed to send long range missiles that can range up to 300 km. That could hit both Sevastopol and the Kerch bridge. Unconfirmed, though.

Waffledynamics said:

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ETA: At 6:22, he mentions speculation that the US has agreed to send long range missiles that can range up to 300 km. That could hit both Sevastopol and the Kerch bridge. Unconfirmed, though.

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Good bull.

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Explosion at warehouse in Alchevsk

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-july-explosion-at-warehouse-in-alchevsk

📍Алчевськ, Луганська область. ⚡
Місто окуповане росією з 2014 року.
Мінус ще один склад БК 💥🔥🔥🔥. pic.twitter.com/zMSlklipsK

— Illya Ayzin (@Illya_Ayzin) July 9, 2022

I missed this tidbit about the last $400M aid pkg ... it likely includes 1,000 rounds of deadly accurate M982 Excalibur rounds for high value targets.

Link

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In addition to HIMARS, the U.S. will be sending 1,000 rounds of what the official said are 155 mm howitzer rounds that provide "greater precision" than standard shells for those systems.

"It offers Ukraine precise capability for specific targets," the official said. "It will save ammunition. It will be more effective due to the precision."

Ukraine still has "substantial stores" of standard 155 mm shells, the official said.

The official declined to answer repeated questions about whether the new high-precision rounds were the M982 Excalibur precision-guided 155mm artillery shell. The Excalibur, which the Army, as well as the U.S. Marines, have been using for more than a decade, is only capable of hitting stationary targets using its GPS-assisted inertial navigation system (INS) guidance package. The M982 has a maximum range of 20 miles.

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benchmark said:

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I missed this tidbit about the last $400M aid pkg ... it likely includes 1,000 rounds of deadly accurate M982 Excalibur rounds for high value targets.

Link

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In addition to HIMARS, the U.S. will be sending 1,000 rounds of what the official said are 155 mm howitzer rounds that provide "greater precision" than standard shells for those systems.

"It offers Ukraine precise capability for specific targets," the official said. "It will save ammunition. It will be more effective due to the precision."

Ukraine still has "substantial stores" of standard 155 mm shells, the official said.

The official declined to answer repeated questions about whether the new high-precision rounds were the M982 Excalibur precision-guided 155mm artillery shell. The Excalibur, which the Army, as well as the U.S. Marines, have been using for more than a decade, is only capable of hitting stationary targets using its GPS-assisted inertial navigation system (INS) guidance package. The M982 has a maximum range of 20 miles.

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I would think it more likely that they are sending the M1156 Precision Guidance Kit for conventional 155mm projectiles than Excalibur. There's a big cost difference (not that cost has been an obstacle for US aid thus far).

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/m1156.htm

Ulysses90 said:

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I would think it more likely that they are sending the M1156 Precision Guidance Kit for conventional 155mm projectiles than Excalibur. There's a big cost difference (not that cost has been an obstacle for US aid thus far).

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Good read. Thanks for sharing. What a novel idea ... just cobble together an accurate weapon by slapping on a guidance system to an existing munition. Wondering if we haven't previously provided these based on some of the video's we've seen. M982's cost about the same as a Javelin and we've sent them over 6,000 ... so not sure if cost is the issue.

Here's another link - M1156 Precision Guidance Kit. Accuracy comparison ....

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A conventional unguided M549A1 155 mm artillery projectile has a circular error probability (CEP) of 267 m (876 ft) at its maximum range, meaning that half of the rounds can be expected to land within 267 meters of their intended target. This has made unguided artillery dangerous to use in close combat for fear of friendly fire and collateral damage. The M982 Excalibur was fielded as a guided shell that effectively hit within 6 m (20 ft) of a target, but the Army developed the XM1156 as a cheaper alternative. The PGK fuse can be screwed onto existing M549A1 and M795 projectiles, be fired from M109A6 Paladin and M777A2 Howitzer artillery systems, and hits within 50 m (160 ft) of the target at any range.

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