***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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LMCane
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 10:17a, 7/11/22
Waffledynamics said:
benchmark said:
Waffledynamics said:
There appears to be a dam there.
There's a major highway across the dam and it's about 35 miles upstream from Kherson. It's one of only 2 river crossings over the Dnipro until Zaporizhzhia 150 miles upstream from the dam. SOL if they can't take one of those 2.
So Ukraine would not want to take out the dam, but control it. Good to understand.

Denys Davidov stating the Ukes should have blown the bridge the day the invasion started as it allowed the Russkies to transition across from the Kerch Peninsula and cross into Kherson.

at this stage he says not to blow it- but I disagree. No way the Ukes will be able to use one bridge to cross south past Kherson towards Kerch.

their best case scenario is to clear the northern bank up to Meliotopol of all Russian forces, putting them within striking distance of eventually retaking Mariupol.

they should blow that dam/bridge now- and trap the Russian forces on the north side to be defeated in detail without their ability to resupply
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Get Off My Lawn
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In reply to Eliminatus • 10:58a, 7/11/22
Eliminatus said:
benchmark said:
Speculating .... ammo dumps are important now but sometime soon HIMARS may start targeting air defense .... radar, launchers, etc. Forward air surveillance will become critical if they want to advance far enough to put the southern coastline and the Crimean border within HIMARS range.


I agree. The only problem I see is rocket availability. They have to be VERY selective with what they hit. Will they have enough to maintain the pressure on Russia's supply and ease the bombardments AND suppress their AA to a point where combat sorties will actually be feasible. Can they do it with what they have and in the pipeline in the very near future? Honestly don't know.
I've been mentioning this concern for some time now. We'd built up huge stockpiles of 105 and 155mm ammunition over 50+ years. Many different types of ammo and lots of everything.

We don't have the same legacy with GMLRS and were still working to build a strategic stockpile. Heck - we still have gaps in development of ammunition categories!

Now we appear to be depleting it for this proxy war in a time where we're not training enough cannoneers to just take the old stuff back out of mothballs (practical knowledge on implementation and logistics evaporates quickly through natural attrition).

At least the anti-tank stuff was designed for these tanks (along with China's), so they're being consumed for their intended purpose... the same can't be said for these rockets.
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lb3
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11:07a, 7/11/22
AG
Can someone re-post some of the more informative posts from pg 661 without the AIDS inducing twitter link(s)?
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to Get Off My Lawn • 11:15a, 7/11/22
AG
Get Off My Lawn said:
Eliminatus said:
benchmark said:
Speculating .... ammo dumps are important now but sometime soon HIMARS may start targeting air defense .... radar, launchers, etc. Forward air surveillance will become critical if they want to advance far enough to put the southern coastline and the Crimean border within HIMARS range.


I agree. The only problem I see is rocket availability. They have to be VERY selective with what they hit. Will they have enough to maintain the pressure on Russia's supply and ease the bombardments AND suppress their AA to a point where combat sorties will actually be feasible. Can they do it with what they have and in the pipeline in the very near future? Honestly don't know.
I've been mentioning this concern for some time now. We'd built up huge stockpiles of 105 and 155mm ammunition over 50+ years. Many different types of ammo and lots of everything.

We don't have the same legacy with GMLRS and were still working to build a strategic stockpile. Heck - we still have gaps in development of ammunition categories!

Now we appear to be depleting it for this proxy war in a time where we're not training enough cannoneers to just take the old stuff back out of mothballs (practical knowledge on implementation and logistics evaporates quickly through natural attrition).

At least the anti-tank stuff was designed for these tanks (along with China's), so they're being consumed for their intended purpose... the same can't be said for these rockets.
My mobile browser still crashing but desktop is fine.

I saw evidence for the first time today, use of airburst artillery rounds by UKR. Assuming they were ours.

I am fine with depleting these stocks on orcs and wish they would send more weapons faster to drive out the russians and end this. Given what we have seen, even as of yesterday with a dozen pieces of armor grouped together in less than a BB infield while under artillery attack, I have no doubt we crush the russians even with our weakened woke military before even a single 105/155 needs to be deployed.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to lb3 • 11:16a, 7/11/22
AG
lb3 said:
Can someone re-post some of the more informative posts from pg 661 without the AIDS inducing twitter link(s)?
Can they be deleted by mods or the poster to fix the issue?
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lb3
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 11:25a, 7/11/22
AG
JFABNRGR said:
Get Off My Lawn said:
Eliminatus said:
benchmark said:
Speculating .... ammo dumps are important now but sometime soon HIMARS may start targeting air defense .... radar, launchers, etc. Forward air surveillance will become critical if they want to advance far enough to put the southern coastline and the Crimean border within HIMARS range.


I agree. The only problem I see is rocket availability. They have to be VERY selective with what they hit. Will they have enough to maintain the pressure on Russia's supply and ease the bombardments AND suppress their AA to a point where combat sorties will actually be feasible. Can they do it with what they have and in the pipeline in the very near future? Honestly don't know.
I've been mentioning this concern for some time now. We'd built up huge stockpiles of 105 and 155mm ammunition over 50+ years. Many different types of ammo and lots of everything.

We don't have the same legacy with GMLRS and were still working to build a strategic stockpile. Heck - we still have gaps in development of ammunition categories!

Now we appear to be depleting it for this proxy war in a time where we're not training enough cannoneers to just take the old stuff back out of mothballs (practical knowledge on implementation and logistics evaporates quickly through natural attrition).

At least the anti-tank stuff was designed for these tanks (along with China's), so they're being consumed for their intended purpose... the same can't be said for these rockets.
My mobile browser still crashing but desktop is fine.

I saw evidence for the first time today, use of airburst artillery rounds by UKR. Assuming they were ours.

I am fine with depleting these stocks on orcs and wish they would send more weapons faster to drive out the russians and end this. Given what we have seen, even as of yesterday with a dozen pieces of armor grouped together in less than a BB infield while under artillery attack, I have no doubt we crush the russians even with our weakened woke military before even a single 105/155 needs to be deployed.
I agree with using our weapon stockpile on Russia. They're why we built those stocks to begin with so if our weapons get consumed on Russian hardware without costing us American lives, that is a huge strategic win.

Add in that Russia has expended a huge percentage of their precision guided weapons and artillery and they will likely never pose a conventional threat to us again.
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Jock 07
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In reply to lb3 • 11:52a, 7/11/22
AG
lb3 said:
JFABNRGR said:
Get Off My Lawn said:
Eliminatus said:
benchmark said:
Speculating .... ammo dumps are important now but sometime soon HIMARS may start targeting air defense .... radar, launchers, etc. Forward air surveillance will become critical if they want to advance far enough to put the southern coastline and the Crimean border within HIMARS range.


I agree. The only problem I see is rocket availability. They have to be VERY selective with what they hit. Will they have enough to maintain the pressure on Russia's supply and ease the bombardments AND suppress their AA to a point where combat sorties will actually be feasible. Can they do it with what they have and in the pipeline in the very near future? Honestly don't know.
I've been mentioning this concern for some time now. We'd built up huge stockpiles of 105 and 155mm ammunition over 50+ years. Many different types of ammo and lots of everything.

We don't have the same legacy with GMLRS and were still working to build a strategic stockpile. Heck - we still have gaps in development of ammunition categories!

Now we appear to be depleting it for this proxy war in a time where we're not training enough cannoneers to just take the old stuff back out of mothballs (practical knowledge on implementation and logistics evaporates quickly through natural attrition).

At least the anti-tank stuff was designed for these tanks (along with China's), so they're being consumed for their intended purpose... the same can't be said for these rockets.
My mobile browser still crashing but desktop is fine.

I saw evidence for the first time today, use of airburst artillery rounds by UKR. Assuming they were ours.

I am fine with depleting these stocks on orcs and wish they would send more weapons faster to drive out the russians and end this. Given what we have seen, even as of yesterday with a dozen pieces of armor grouped together in less than a BB infield while under artillery attack, I have no doubt we crush the russians even with our weakened woke military before even a single 105/155 needs to be deployed.
I agree with using our weapon stockpile on Russia. They're why we built those stocks to begin with so if our weapons get consumed on Russian hardware without costing us American lives, that is a huge strategic win.

Add in that Russia has expended a huge percentage of their precision guided weapons and artillery and they will likely never pose a conventional threat to us again.

That's all fine and good until we find ourselves in conflict with our #1 adversary, china with a significantly depleted stockpile.
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Demosthenes81
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In reply to Jock 07 • 11:59a, 7/11/22
AG
Jock 07 said:
lb3 said:


I agree with using our weapon stockpile on Russia. They're why we built those stocks to begin with so if our weapons get consumed on Russian hardware without costing us American lives, that is a huge strategic win.

Add in that Russia has expended a huge percentage of their precision guided weapons and artillery and they will likely never pose a conventional threat to us again.

That's all fine and good until we find ourselves in conflict with our #1 adversary, china with a significantly depleted stockpile.
Our war with China will not be fought with artillery and anti tank missiles.

edit
Except maybe for the Marines, but then they are used to fighting with sharp sticks and rocks)
Seven and three are ten, not only now, but forever. There has never been a time when seven and three were not ten, nor will there ever be a time when they are not ten. Therefore, I have said that the truth of number is incorruptible and common to all who think. — St. Augustine
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lb3
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In reply to Jock 07 • 12:28p, 7/11/22
AG
Jock 07 said:
lb3 said:
JFABNRGR said:
Get Off My Lawn said:
Eliminatus said:
benchmark said:
Speculating .... ammo dumps are important now but sometime soon HIMARS may start targeting air defense .... radar, launchers, etc. Forward air surveillance will become critical if they want to advance far enough to put the southern coastline and the Crimean border within HIMARS range.


I agree. The only problem I see is rocket availability. They have to be VERY selective with what they hit. Will they have enough to maintain the pressure on Russia's supply and ease the bombardments AND suppress their AA to a point where combat sorties will actually be feasible. Can they do it with what they have and in the pipeline in the very near future? Honestly don't know.
I've been mentioning this concern for some time now. We'd built up huge stockpiles of 105 and 155mm ammunition over 50+ years. Many different types of ammo and lots of everything.

We don't have the same legacy with GMLRS and were still working to build a strategic stockpile. Heck - we still have gaps in development of ammunition categories!

Now we appear to be depleting it for this proxy war in a time where we're not training enough cannoneers to just take the old stuff back out of mothballs (practical knowledge on implementation and logistics evaporates quickly through natural attrition).

At least the anti-tank stuff was designed for these tanks (along with China's), so they're being consumed for their intended purpose... the same can't be said for these rockets.
My mobile browser still crashing but desktop is fine.

I saw evidence for the first time today, use of airburst artillery rounds by UKR. Assuming they were ours.

I am fine with depleting these stocks on orcs and wish they would send more weapons faster to drive out the russians and end this. Given what we have seen, even as of yesterday with a dozen pieces of armor grouped together in less than a BB infield while under artillery attack, I have no doubt we crush the russians even with our weakened woke military before even a single 105/155 needs to be deployed.
I agree with using our weapon stockpile on Russia. They're why we built those stocks to begin with so if our weapons get consumed on Russian hardware without costing us American lives, that is a huge strategic win.

Add in that Russia has expended a huge percentage of their precision guided weapons and artillery and they will likely never pose a conventional threat to us again.

That's all fine and good until we find ourselves in conflict with our #1 adversary, china with a significantly depleted stockpile.
Don't think for a second that we would enter a high intensity war with China without Russia seeking to advance back into Eastern Europe. Those weapons are doing what they were built to do which is to destroy Russia's military.

China will be a sea denial and a light infantry v infantry island campaign. The Marines would have air support and naval artillery support and likely won't be using medium range artillery rockets.
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Get Off My Lawn
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In reply to Demosthenes81 • 2:10p, 7/11/22
Demosthenes81 said:
Jock 07 said:
lb3 said:


I agree with using our weapon stockpile on Russia. They're why we built those stocks to begin with so if our weapons get consumed on Russian hardware without costing us American lives, that is a huge strategic win.

Add in that Russia has expended a huge percentage of their precision guided weapons and artillery and they will likely never pose a conventional threat to us again.

That's all fine and good until we find ourselves in conflict with our #1 adversary, china with a significantly depleted stockpile.
Our war with China will not be fought with artillery and anti tank missiles.

edit
Except maybe for the Marines, but then they are used to fighting with sharp sticks and rocks)
Knowing some of the men who could be sitting with empty launchers on those islands... I find myself less nonchalant about that risk.
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TXAggie2011
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4:08p, 7/11/22
AG
That explosion in Nova Kahovka was huge. Wow!

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JFABNRGR
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In reply to TXAggie2011 • 4:19p, 7/11/22
AG
This keeps up it will be the orcs with empty tubes. I have heard reports now of 22+ ammo dumps hit and at least 3+ CPs thanks to HIMARS. There is also conflicting reports of how many are actually on operational deployment. Some say only 4 others up to 12 with a few more coming.

In retaliation I have no doubt russia to continue carpet bombing civilian targets.

3-4 better videos of this one below>

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/vwrmbo/it_is_said_this_video_was_taken_by_orcs/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/vwr1b6/this_is_himars_oclock_ammo_dump_is_occupied_nova/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/vwrb3a/armed_forces_of_ukraine_in_nova_kahovka_staged/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
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74OA
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5:22p, 7/11/22
AG
Again, this war will be won by the side which best attends to its LOGISTICS.
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Jetpilot86
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In reply to lb3 • 5:26p, 7/11/22
AG
If we use our navy right, China won't last 6 months in a conventional fight. They are too sea lane dependent for oil and food.
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benchmark
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In reply to LMCane • 5:49p, 7/11/22
AG
LMCane said:
Denys Davidov stating the Ukes should have blown the bridge the day the invasion started as it allowed the Russkies to transition across from the Kerch Peninsula and cross into Kherson.

at this stage he says not to blow it- but I disagree. No way the Ukes will be able to use one bridge to cross south past Kherson towards Kerch.
The Kakhovka dam is a HUGE deal. It has 4 traffic lanes and a rail crossing over the Dnipro ... one of only 2 for 150 miles. Not to mention hydroelectric. As important to both sides - the entrance to the fresh water canal to Crimea is just next to the dam. The prize is to control it - not destroy it.

The good news ... capturing the dam, crossing the river, and closing the fresh water canal to Crimea would be epic. Remagen bridge kind of epic. So it's definitely a hill worth fighting for.

The bad news ... the Russians will throw everything they've got to defend it. It's probably more strategic than Kherson itself.
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benchmark
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 6:01p, 7/11/22
AG
JFABNRGR said:
This keeps up it will be the orcs with empty tubes. I have heard reports now of 22+ ammo dumps hit and at least 3+ CPs thanks to HIMARS. There is also conflicting reports of how many are actually on operational deployment. Some say only 4 others up to 12 with a few more coming.
HIMARS o'clock ... love it.

Reportedly, 8 HIMARS are in country with 4 more on the way. Plus 9 M270's reportedly coming from Germany, Norway, and the UK. That's 21 launchers in the pipeline ... equals 180 rockets if all are fully loaded.

Doing the napkin math - say there's 6-8 HIMAR attacks per day ... so maybe 200 attacks per month. If the avg attack is say 6 rockets ... then the burn rate is 1,200 per month.

No clue what that burn rate means to our strategic inventory but the US Army is said to have 50,000 and we don't know how many are coming from other NATO countries.
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AGS-R-TUFF
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8:49p, 7/11/22
AG
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lb3
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In reply to Jetpilot86 • 8:54p, 7/11/22
AG
Jetpilot86 said:
If we use our navy right, China won't last 6 months in a conventional fight. They are too sea lane dependent for oil and food.
They sure aren't going to get their goods over the Himalayas from India and Russia doesn't look like they're going to be able to provide much assistance in the near term so long as we keep arming Ukraine.
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benchmark
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9:14p, 7/11/22
AG
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fullback44
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In reply to lb3 • 9:36p, 7/11/22
AG
lb3 said:
Can someone re-post some of the more informative posts from pg 661 without the AIDS inducing twitter link(s)?
I agree .. I can now finally view this thread again
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sclaff
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10:05p, 7/11/22
AG
more in the thread, but here is the finish:




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sclaff
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10:13p, 7/11/22
AG
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sclaff
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10:17p, 7/11/22
AG
My browser isn't showing Twitter graphics... here is the translation


(R1)=Russian soldier 1 (R2)=Russian soldier 2


(R1): I think you must have heard by now about what happened in Rostov… I mean in Kherson?

(R2): No.

(R1): Didn't they say?

(R2): What happened?

(R1): You know… not on the phone.. anyway they *Ukrainians* hit the main command point. Hit it ******* properly.

(R2): Your command?

(R1): Yes. There are 12 200's *dead*… Not our command, the one that is like… the most ******* important one in our direction. […] I told these morons, don't dig this way, this is a complete ******* bullsh*t. They made pits in a checkerboard pattern, and some sh*t in the middle, between them. I told them as soon as even one pit is hit it will *****everything up. They said "no, the checkerboard pattern, the adjacent pits won't catch fire. I told them "you f*ckheads, as soon as shrapnels start flying this will all catch fire!". I said they needed separate pits, se-pa-rate! They shouldn't be connected to one another. He said "don't be a smarta*s". I said fine. I came back when all this f*ckery exploded, asked what now. They said "how did you know?!". I said "you're f*cked in the head!".
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JFABNRGR
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7:42a, 7/12/22
AG
Good interview with German training officer who conducted training of UKR personnel on the PZH2000.

Says they let them use their targeting AP.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vx9rwh/colonel_in_charge_of_pzh2000_training_we_cut/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
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Waffledynamics
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7:46a, 7/12/22
AG
Quote:
Fire at the military base in Myrne of Melitopol district


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/12-july-fire-at-the-military-base-in-myrne-of-melitopol-district

Quote:
Russian troops blocked exit from Melitopol to Zaporizhzhia


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/12-july-russian-troops-blocked-exit-from-melitopol-to-zaporizhzhia
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Waffledynamics
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7:50a, 7/12/22
AG
Quote:
Ammunition still exploding in Nova Kakhovka this morning


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/12-july-ammunition-still-exploding-in-nova-kakhovka-this

Ukrainians must have hit a jackpot.
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Waffledynamics
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7:54a, 7/12/22
AG
Quote:
Jake Sullivan with some news: Says US has intelligence that Iran is preparing to provide Russia with UAVs to use in Ukraine and is preparing to train the Russians how to use them


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/11-july-jake-sullivan-with-some-news-says-us-has-intelligence
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LMCane
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 7:56a, 7/12/22
JFABNRGR said:
This keeps up it will be the orcs with empty tubes. I have heard reports now of 22+ ammo dumps hit and at least 3+ CPs thanks to HIMARS. There is also conflicting reports of how many are actually on operational deployment. Some say only 4 others up to 12 with a few more coming.

In retaliation I have no doubt russia to continue carpet bombing civilian targets.

3-4 better videos of this one below>

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/vwrmbo/it_is_said_this_video_was_taken_by_orcs/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/vwr1b6/this_is_himars_oclock_ammo_dump_is_occupied_nova/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/vwrb3a/armed_forces_of_ukraine_in_nova_kahovka_staged/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
pretty sure that as of today there are 4 HIMARS batteries in Ukraine

with another 8 on the way
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LMCane
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:57a, 7/12/22
Waffledynamics said:
Quote:
Jake Sullivan with some news: Says US has intelligence that Iran is preparing to provide Russia with UAVs to use in Ukraine and is preparing to train the Russians how to use them


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/11-july-jake-sullivan-with-some-news-says-us-has-intelligence
not surprising as the Russkies have been helping the Iranians get nuclear weapons and take over Syria.

let's hope we are getting NATO to provide vast amounts of SAM batteries
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to LMCane • 8:25a, 7/12/22
AG
How many guns/units in a battery?

Iranians have mastered fighting Americans and our allies through proxy wars. It has been long over due to put them in their place. Gen Soleimani and the nuclear scientist wasn't enough. I knew of irans extensive efforts in Iraq but had no clue until very recently their work in Afghanistan.
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JFABNRGR
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8:44a, 7/12/22
AG
https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/

I am sure 740A has posted this article before dated 11-23-21 and gets pretty detailed about russian logistics and how they operate and quite relevant to current situation. It predicts russians to be limited to 90 miles in advance without serious issues in operational effectiveness. Currently on GE I have measured most front lines to be at less than 45 miles with a couple in the east at 65 from the orc border. The 65 mile distance is in areas they have been fighting over since 2014 so that is an outlier.

A couple of key notes some I was not aware of from the article:

Russian formations have only three-quarters the number of combat vehicles as their U.S. counterparts but almost three times as much artillery.

A trump card the Russians have are their 10 railroad brigades, which have no Western equivalents. They specialize in railroad security, construction, and repair, while rolling stock is provided by civilian state companies.

The reason Russia is unique in having railroad brigades is that logistically, Russian forces are tied to railroad from factory to army depot and to combined arms army and, where possible, to the division/brigade level. No other European nation uses railroads to the extent that the Russian army does.

Russian railroads are a wider gauge than the rest of Europe.

Forward railhead operations are more than just cross-loading cargo from train onto truck. It involves receiving and sorting cargo, repackaging for specific units, and storing excess on the ground. Due to the hazardous nature of military cargo, the ground needs to be prepared so that cargo can be stored in safe, distributed environments. This process can take one to three days. The site also needs to be outside the range of enemy artillery and secured from partisans. A single lucky shell or an rocket propelled grenade can result in a major explosion and have a disproportionate effect on the tempo of an entire division.
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EastSideAg2002
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 9:28a, 7/12/22
Waffledynamics said:
Quote:
Jake Sullivan with some news: Says US has intelligence that Iran is preparing to provide Russia with UAVs to use in Ukraine and is preparing to train the Russians how to use them


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/11-july-jake-sullivan-with-some-news-says-us-has-intelligence
Maybe that will tilt the Israelis to be less friendly to russia.
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74OA
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10:12a, 7/12/22
AG
8 HIMARS in country with 4 more on the way. DOING WORK
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74OA
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10:31a, 7/12/22
AG
Another reason why kicking the Russians off Snake Island is important. GRAIN
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to 74OA • 10:41a, 7/12/22
AG
Some of the work as reported by UKR Journalist Roman Tsymbalyuk unconfirmed but SIGNIFICANT if true.

Translation below:

The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to destroy command posts and
warehouses of the RF Armed Forces.
So over the past few days, as a result of artillery
strikes in the Kherson region, more than 4 warehouses were destroyed and
3 division-level command posts and above. Still
information continues to be received about the killed and wounded
servicemen of the RF Armed Forces, the total number of which at these
facilities has already exceeded 150.
Including information about the dead among
the leadership of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation:
Chief of Staff of the 22nd Army Corps (military unit 73954,
Simferopol) Major General Nasbulin;
Commander of the 20th motorized rifle division (military unit 22220,
Volgograd), Colonel Gorobets;
Chief of Staff - First Deputy Commander of the 20th MRD Colonel Kens;
Head of the operational department of the headquarters of the 20th MRD, Lieutenant Colonel Koval;
Artillery Chief of the 20th Motor Rifle Division, Lieutenant Colonel Gordeev.
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