A deconstruction of Russia's most recent bogus claim that Ukraine attacked a busload of Belarusian children.
"Ukrainian drone attacked a bus with children from Belarus… But was it really Ukrainian?
Across Russian propaganda platforms, a shocking news story is spreading a Ukrainian drone struck a bus carrying children traveling from Belarus to vacation in Gelendzhik!
The strike occurred while the bus was driving along the A-240 highway in the Pochepsky District of Bryansk Oblast. Preliminary reports indicate that an accompanying woman was killed, and six people were injured, including four teenagers.
Naturally, even without any expert analysis results or completion of investigative actions, the Russian side is hysterically blaming Ukraine for the strike, while photos and videos of the attacked bus flood the news feeds. And, honestly, it would have been better if they hadn't published those photos it's basically a confession of guilt!
But let's take it step by step.
Before dissecting this provocation organized by the Russian side and yes, I'm spoiling the intrigue right away by laying all the cards on the table I want to point out that I don't understand what tourist buses are still doing in Russia, a country at war with active combat operations underway? Sending children on vacation to Russia, to Gelendzhik what kind of irresponsible parents are these?
As of today, the entire territory of Russia is a combat zone and a potential risk area for everyone on it!
Now, let's return to the tragedy in Bryansk Oblast.
First, I want you to understand what the A-240 highway and Pochepsky District are. This is more than 60 km from the border with Ukraine. This is a very important point for further understanding why we're dealing with a Russian provocation.
Second, take a look at the photos of the damaged bus. Based on the nature of the damage, it's clear this was a low-power FPV drone. Not a mid-range strike drone like, say, a Hornet, but a low-yield strike device. And that's the most interesting part!
An FPV drone flies up to 20 km, and with fiber optics, on average up to 40 km. Additionally, the drone is launched from a concealed position for the operator's safety, meaning an extra minimum of 5 km safety zone.
Thus, a Ukrainian FPV drone could not possibly have flown in from Ukrainian territory to strike the bus more than 60 km from the border it would have needed to cover over 65 km.
In other words, logically, if it were a fiber-optic drone, it would have had to be launched from somewhere in the Pogarsky District of Bryansk Oblast, like the village of Pogar or Trubchevsk. And if it was a standard FPV drone, the launch would have had to come from the Pochepsky District itself!
I don't recall Ukraine currently controlling such an expanse and depth of Bryansk Oblast territory. And if we imagine some kind of DRG [diversionary reconnaissance group] infiltration, they'd have to cover 20 to 40 km through a well-patrolled and controlled zone in Bryansk Oblast. And all for what? To strike a bus with children using an FPV drone? Though, the exact same thing could have been done with a mid-range strike drone…
Third, now for the non-technical aspects. Just a few days ago, so-called Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko gave an interview in which he apologized to Volodymyr Zelenskyy and assured the Ukrainian president that Minsk has no plans to attack our country. This interview was clearly taken painfully in the Kremlin, and they might well have tried to put Lukashenko in his place with a terrorist act of this provocative nature.
After all, following the strike on the bus with children and the Russian side's statements that Ukrainians did it, Lukashenko will have to respond. Both in the context of his recent statements and in the context of the Russian side's clear intent with this provocation: not so much to demonize Ukraine, but to drag Belarus into the war against Ukraine.
So.
A bus with Belarusian children heading to vacation in a warring country, along a dangerous route, is attacked by an allegedly Ukrainian drone that couldn't possibly have reached the terrorist site from Ukrainian territory and this happens right after Lukashenko's conciliatory statements toward Ukraine. The Russian side, without even properly investigating, immediately started blaming Ukraine for everything, though if the investigation had been conducted, there would have been a high risk of tracing it back to themselves…
Traveling to Russia is dangerous not only because it's a combat zone, but also because, against your will, you could at any moment become a victim of a Russian provocation, which they devise for one purpose or another."
