I dont think I will ever watch any re-entry without a serious bit of trepidation.

I'm to young to remember Challenger, so the throttle up call is a historical moment to me. I will NEVER forget watching Columbia break up that morning, after I had watched so many come in and land( we fished out of Sabine pass, we routinely would spot the shuttle on descent in the distance.). I was very glad to see this crew get home, even though I have a great deal of confidence in Dragon, to the point I would take a ride in a second if offered.

Congrats to the team.... I can't imagine how good it must feel for everyone involved to know that, once again, spacex did what was called "impossible:

scottimus said:

---

Whew, looks like Elon got my TexAgs post just in time.

Appreciate that.

Anyway, the evacuation of the village is a more acute timeline of events. The road closures are scheduled and cancelled often. The TFR and Village EVAC Notice are the final timeline events before they start loading propellant.

Interesting that they do not launch on weekends for some reason...it is definitely not an overtime issue...

---

They have an agreement with the county not to launch on weekends so Boca Chico can be used as a tourist area as well

Ag_of_08 said:

---

I dont think I will ever watch any re-entry without a serious bit of trepidation.

I'm to young to remember Challenger, so the throttle up call is a historical moment to me. I will NEVER forget watching Columbia break up that morning, after I had watched so many come in and land( we fished out of Sabine pass, we routinely would spot the shuttle on descent in the distance.). I was very glad to see this crew get home, even though I have a great deal of confidence in Dragon, to the point I would take a ride in a second if offered.

Congrats to the team.... I can't imagine how good it must feel for everyone involved to know that, once again, spacex did what was called "impossible:

---

It's a great accomplishment though it wasn't considered impossible since NASA did it for the Apollo missions. And the Russians also. But every manned space mission does cause me a little bit of tension thinking about the well being of the crew. SpaceX has made America proud with this success mission.

bmks270 said:

---

Ag_of_08 said:

---

I dont think I will ever watch any re-entry without a serious bit of trepidation.

I'm to young to remember Challenger, so the throttle up call is a historical moment to me. I will NEVER forget watching Columbia break up that morning, after I had watched so many come in and land( we fished out of Sabine pass, we routinely would spot the shuttle on descent in the distance.). I was very glad to see this crew get home, even though I have a great deal of confidence in Dragon, to the point I would take a ride in a second if offered.

Congrats to the team.... I can't imagine how good it must feel for everyone involved to know that, once again, spacex did what was called "impossible:

---

It's a great accomplishment though it wasn't considered impossible since NASA did it for the Apollo missions. And the Russians also. But every manned space mission does cause me a little bit of tension thinking about the well being of the crew.

---

I was actually talking about commercial crew, and yes it was considered impossible, especially within any reasonable budget.

A privately owned, privately operated space vehicle launching to the ISS with cargo and crew, was "impossible" just a few years ago.

Ag_of_08 said:

---

bmks270 said:

---

Ag_of_08 said:

---

I dont think I will ever watch any re-entry without a serious bit of trepidation.

I'm to young to remember Challenger, so the throttle up call is a historical moment to me. I will NEVER forget watching Columbia break up that morning, after I had watched so many come in and land( we fished out of Sabine pass, we routinely would spot the shuttle on descent in the distance.). I was very glad to see this crew get home, even though I have a great deal of confidence in Dragon, to the point I would take a ride in a second if offered.

Congrats to the team.... I can't imagine how good it must feel for everyone involved to know that, once again, spacex did what was called "impossible:

---

It's a great accomplishment though it wasn't considered impossible since NASA did it for the Apollo missions. And the Russians also. But every manned space mission does cause me a little bit of tension thinking about the well being of the crew.

---

I was actually talking about commercial crew, and yes it was considered impossible, especially within any reasonable budget.

A privately owned, privately operated space vehicle launching to the ISS with cargo and crew, was "impossible" just a few years ago.

---

There is so much oversight with these type of contracts that it's a quasi-government organization.

No hop on Monday! The Temporary Flight Restriction (TFR) for May 3 has been removed. TFRs are currently posted for Tuesday and Wednesday, meaning the soonest that Starship SN15 could fly is now May 4.https://t.co/Rl0cyUwxQy

— Michael Baylor (@nextspaceflight) May 3, 2021

Uh.... OK. Not gonna bite on that line in the water....

It's nuts to me that you can get close enough to throw a rock at something that could go to space

JobSecurity said:

---

It's nuts to me that you can get close enough to throw a rock at something that could go to space

---

The shuttle wasn't there at the time, but yeah...

More on the Bezos and Dynetics temper tantrums. Entertaining article;

https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starship-sn15-test-flight-blue-origin-dynetics-protests/

USAF now looking at starship conceptually as a cargo hauler (among other options):

Quote:

---

In 2017, I wrote here that "SpaceX's Reusable Rockets Could Revolutionize Warfare". Four years later, it appears the Air Force now agrees. In a recent release from Air Force Public Affairs, a new category called Rocket Cargo is noted as one example of a capability called Future Tactical Lift one of nine "Key Capabilities for the Air Force We Need".

This new recognition seems to have come out of recent senior-level meetings. Last summer, the Air Force Research Laboratory held a "WARTECH Summit" between the USAF's operational and acquisition communities focusing on leading edge technologies in the Science and Technology portfolio that could be transitioned into immediate warfighting capabilities.

The Summit was tasked with identifying a list of candidate advanced technology demonstrations that could be quickly transitioned to an enterprise level Department of the Air Force effort called Vanguard. Not surprisingly, one of the candidates for the Vanguard program is Rocket Cargo (SpaceX Starship-derived concept depicted below).

---

I find that still a bit ludicrously expensive as a cargo hauler; the USAF (and Army) could of course and in fact does pre-position critical supplies globally.

Of course, China has shown a copy cat recently as well;

Quote:

---

This weekend, China celebrated its sixth "National Space Day" in Nanjing, a capital city in one of the country's eastern provinces. As part of the festivities, Chinese space officials highlighted the Chang'e-5 mission's recent return of lunar samples, some of which were on display, and announced the name of China's first Mars rover, Zhurong, which is scheduled to land on the red planet in May.

A booth operated by China's main state-owned rocket manufacturer, the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, also spotlighted the potential for suborbital point-to-point transportation. This is a concept in which a vehicle launches from Earth, flies into suborbital space, and touches down halfway around the world in less than an hour.

The promotional video, captured and shared on the Chinese social network Weibo, shows two different concepts for achieving suborbital passenger flights about two decades from now. What is interesting about the video (which I've mirrored on YouTube) is that the first concept looks strikingly like SpaceX's Starship vehicle. It shows a large vehicle capable of vertical takeoff and vertical landing.

---

I'm sure they'll wait for Elon's team to perfect the raptor/landing mechanisms/software/hardware before really stealing it outright via espionage etc.

Quote:

---

This would not be the first time that the Chinese space program has drawn inspiration from SpaceX. The country tracked SpaceX from the very beginning, particularly with an interest in SpaceX's plans to reuse rocket first stages. During the company's very first launch in 2006, as reported in the book Liftoff, a Chinese spy boat was in the small patch of ocean where the Falcon 1 rocket's first stage was due to reenter.

More recently, in 2019, the Chinese Long March 2C rocket tested "grid fins" like those used by the first stage of the Falcon 9 rocket to steer itself through the atmosphere during the reentry process. China intends to develop the Long March 8 rocket to land on a sea platform like the Falcon 9 booster did, and semi-private Chinese firms such as LinkSpace and Galactic Energy appear to be mimicking SpaceX launch technology.

It's not clear whether China would also develop a Starship-like vehicle for interplanetary transport. For now, the country plans to develop a more conventional super heavy lifter known as the Long March 9 rocket, as well as a triple-core booster that resembles SpaceX's Falcon Heavy rocket.

---

Looking like really good weather for SN15 tomorrow. Man I hope it lands, lots of eyes will be on this one.

I'm liking that we have 2 static fires with zero Raptor changes. I know Elon said they changed quite a few things on this iteration, so hopefully the reliability will be there. For me, that's the biggest hurdle

Road closures have been posted in Boca Chica on May 4 and 5 for Starship SN15 flight attempts. Windows are noon to 8 pm local each day. https://t.co/6u2msVb0b8

— Michael Baylor (@nextspaceflight) May 3, 2021

Malachi Constant said:

---

Without SpaceX, China leaves the US in the dust around 2040. With SpaceX I think we can hold them off for at least 30 more years.

---

I don't believe this for a minute. Chinese companies have shown time after time that they do not innovate. Their whole R&D model is built on taking someone else's work and producing knockoff copies.

Could they get there on their own? Sure. Could they do it in 20 years? I just don't see it.

Good piece.

I'm pretty excited about NASA's plans to buy cargo delivery services to the Moon. I spent some time recently with @Int_Machines to see how they're progressing.https://t.co/MGV67C1yYs

— Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) May 3, 2021

nortex97 said:

---

More on the Bezos and Dynetics temper tantrums. Entertaining article;

https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starship-sn15-test-flight-blue-origin-dynetics-protests/

---

I think it's pretty typical for government contracts, I think SpaceX has protested just as many.

With the number of people I know who have left SpaceX for BO, really hoping we can see New Glenn and/or BE-4 fly this year.

Crazy part is, SpaceX is the only space company that's ever been able to run as if someone is chasing them, even though nobody appears to be.

Not all protests are just good faith objections, and frankly I don't think the Bezos tears are.



AA I don't take too seriously, but note that Elon's biggest suit was against USAF, and it resulted in some share of DoD launches going to SpaceX. Comment on that video for me that wins;

Quote:

---

"Blue Origin accusing Spacex of having been given favouritism, is like China accusing the USA for being "undemocratic""

---

Just finsihed up the Space Wars series on Wondery -- American Business Wars. In one of the early episodes when Elon was first trying to get DoD & NASA work away from the legacy military industrial complex members he was basically told that if you want to be looked at get into orbit.

Elon got the NASA commercial cargo contract once Falcon 1 achieved orbit. He didn't have F9 and he didn't have cargo dragon, but with an orbital class rocket he gained some trust from NASA. Then he blew up one of his first cargo loads because of a cheap strut in a fuel tank on a F9 core stage.

I could see the same being told to Bezos. Before you want to whine and cry and say you're being overlooked... Build a system that can get to orbit.

Mathguy64 said:

---

Malachi Constant said:

---

Without SpaceX, China leaves the US in the dust around 2040. With SpaceX I think we can hold them off for at least 30 more years.

---

I don't believe this for a minute. Chinese companies have shown time after time that they do not innovate. Their whole R&D model is built on taking someone else's work and producing knockoff copies.

Could they get there on their own? Sure. Could they do it in 20 years? I just don't see it.

---

Don't underestimate them. They got 1.4 billion people. Some of those people are sharp as hell.

What will determine who leads is how's much government gets involved. If NASA gets more control of Space X operations then we will start to stagnate. If China keeps their space industry nationalized, then they will stagnate.

This is why I do NOT want government to subsidize Space X. History has shown that is liked a drag chute on progress.

I dunno, the Dutch and British east india companies (to pick on a couple examples) had a lot of politics/government/warfare involved in their founding/peak periods of growth/power. I don't want to see SpaceX hobbled by Dem-CCP politics though, or even the US Senate itself which is a cesspool, imho.

I think we are seeing the beginning of a real bloom in private space commerce and exploration, and the communists are unlikely to keep up, just as was the case in the cold war, no matter what they do. Individual freedom will eventually win, both on earth and beyond, but perhaps that is too optimistic for a 20-30 year outlook.

Two very different sets of circumstances, and very different types of govts.

zwhag2010 said:

---

ISS astronaut posted this on twitter...

Such an amazing photo of something we have never seen from this perspective.
Crew dragon in it's reentry burn taken from the ISS

---

Iss crews have taken numerous photos like this of Soyuz reentries.

Here is the first one that came up of a Soyuz plasma trail. I've seen some long exposures that show the arc of the flight path.

The shedding is the heat blanket right? I don't know nearly as much about soyuz as I should unfortunately

That would be my guess here are some before and after pics:


All those blankets have to go somewhere.

nortex97 said:

---

I dunno, the Dutch and British east india companies (to pick on a couple examples) had a lot of politics/government/warfare involved in their founding/peak periods of growth/power. I don't want to see SpaceX hobbled by Dem-CCP politics though, or even the US Senate itself which is a cesspool, imho.

I think we are seeing the beginning of a real bloom in private space commerce and exploration, and the communists are unlikely to keep up, just as was the case in the cold war, no matter what they do. Individual freedom will eventually win, both on earth and beyond, but perhaps that is too optimistic for a 20-30 year outlook.

---

Veeeerrrrrryyyyyyyy different time periods and different circumstances. The Dutch and British East India Companies had private armies and navies that rivaled some nation states. They could essentially wage their own wars.

NASA will drive SpaceX development the same way all customers drive vendor development. They pay for they want. SpaceX will simply have other customers that drive different development. Eventually, private enterprise will want big things in orbit, and SpaceX will deliver. Until then, NASA is the one determining the development roadmap because they're the big customer.

The communists will keep up and maybe even win because they're stealing everything and making it cheaper through effective slave labor. If anything, DoD should be looking to SpaceX to deliver on Reagan's Star Wars and weaponize space with lasers and anti-satellite weapons. The Chinese are pretty much already doing it, and I wouldn't be shocked if they started making orbital or atmospheric territorial claims one day. China wants to dominate Space to dominate all future terrestrial battlefields. We should be looking to deny them that space, no pun intended, and maintain superiority. IMO, as much as people laughed at Trump's Space Force, now is the time.

nortex97 said:

---

I dunno, the Dutch and British east india companies (to pick on a couple examples) had a lot of politics/government/warfare involved in their founding/peak periods of growth/power. I don't want to see SpaceX hobbled by Dem-CCP politics though, or even the US Senate itself which is a cesspool, imho.

I think we are seeing the beginning of a real bloom in private space commerce and exploration, and the communists are unlikely to keep up, just as was the case in the cold war, no matter what they do. Individual freedom will eventually win, both on earth and beyond, but perhaps that is too optimistic for a 20-30 year outlook.

---

Read about the steamship competition between Vanderbilt and Collins for a good example of a head to head competition between a 100% private venture and a subsidized one. The Collins line was heavily subsidized while Vanderbilt was not and Vanderbilt ran circles around Collins and ran him out of business. Vandy simply was able to provide better service at cheaper prices.

Happy Launch Day

Starship SN15 launch day!

➡️https://t.co/B154euYsc3 pic.twitter.com/Pqo9OtNywo

— Chris B - NSF (@NASASpaceflight) May 4, 2021

Supposedly launching from the cape and BC within an hour of each other this afternoon.

Also, LOL @ taking 10 months to stack/validate the SLS now.

Quote:

---

Recent schedules showed the remainder of work to reach launch readiness extending for ten months once the core stage arrived. That time includes six months of operations to the "work to" launch readiness and four months of "risk factor". The "work to" launch readiness date, which would still have to synchronize to a lunar launch window, is currently early-November 2021. With risk factored in, a date of early-March 2022 is derived.

"What I would tell you is that, from that standpoint, we fully expect it to take ten months to get everything completed and to get the vehicle launch ready," Cliff Lanham, NASA Senior Vehicle Operations manager for EGS at KSC, said in a recent interview.

---

It once took about 40 days to build an entire liberty ship, with some assembled/launched within a week. Sigh...the first manned starship should definitely be named after a Liberty ship.