nortex97 said:

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It once took about 40 days to build an entire liberty ship, with some assembled/launched within a week. Sigh...the first manned starship should definitely be named after a Liberty ship.

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So...I agree that NASA's timeline is absurd. It really shouldn't take that long. But I'm not sure the Liberty ship was a great comparison...That's like...apples to watermelons or something. The level of complexity between the two is orders of magnitude different. I'd say the Saturn V is a better comparison...and yeah, it still doesn't make 21st century NASA look good.

10 months to stack SLS.

What's it take anyone, anywhere else? Days to weeks?

I'm assuming Starship will be able to launch, land, refuel and restack at least 100 times in 10 months?

Elon's objective is that the SH (meaning any given one, from the same launch tower/crane) can launch every 2 hours. This is akin to watching a new telegraph line being laid out to convey a message across several western states, vs. a cell phone call being placed. (I know my analogies aren't perfect, so I just wanted to throw one more in there.)

I guess that's why they want to 'catch' it mid-air, so that it doesn't have to be repositioned after landing.

The point is that it is not really...so complex a ship, or at least it shouldn't be, that 10 months are needed to snap it together (the bits are all made) and test out the connections.

Decay said:

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10 months to stack SLS.

What's it take anyone, anywhere else? Days to weeks?

I'm assuming Starship will be able to launch, land, refuel and restack at least 100 times in 10 months?

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Physically the work will be done quickly but the testing will be extreme because they'll be flying an Orion on the first-ever flight. They have until I think February/March 2022 before the SRBs expire so we'll definitely see it fly before then.

bthotugigem05 said:

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Decay said:

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10 months to stack SLS.

What's it take anyone, anywhere else? Days to weeks?

I'm assuming Starship will be able to launch, land, refuel and restack at least 100 times in 10 months?

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Physically the work will be done quickly but the testing will be extreme because they'll be flying an Orion on the first-ever flight. They have until I think February/March 2022 before the SRBs expire so we'll definitely see it fly before then.

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Just for reference, every SLS flight will be the first and last flight for all of the hardware anyway right?

Decay said:

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bthotugigem05 said:

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Decay said:

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10 months to stack SLS.

What's it take anyone, anywhere else? Days to weeks?

I'm assuming Starship will be able to launch, land, refuel and restack at least 100 times in 10 months?

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Physically the work will be done quickly but the testing will be extreme because they'll be flying an Orion on the first-ever flight. They have until I think February/March 2022 before the SRBs expire so we'll definitely see it fly before then.

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Just for reference, every SLS flight will be the first and last flight for all of the hardware anyway right?

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Correct. Unless they re-use a space suit or something.

Definitely, will be the first flight for all of the hardware always, but this will be the first flight of the system entirely. NASA just approaches things differently than SpaceX. If SpaceX's SN8 launches and explodes on landing, they're out $2-3 million. If NASA get this wrong, it's $2 billion. Just a different version of risk mitigation.

10 months is probably aggressive for NASA if we're all honest.

Minor correction; it's technically the second/third/fourth for all of the RS-25 engines, which have flown on space shuttles previously, but they will be destroyed/trashed after this flight, as planned.

nortex97 said:

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Elon's objective is that the SH (meaning any given one, from the same launch tower/crane) can launch every 2 hours. This is akin to watching a new telegraph line being laid out to convey a message across several western states, vs. a cell phone call being placed. (I know my analogies aren't perfect, so I just wanted to throw one more in there.)

I guess that's why they want to 'catch' it mid-air, so that it doesn't have to be repositioned after landing.

The point is that it is not really...so complex a ship, or at least it shouldn't be, that 10 months are needed to snap it together (the bits are all made) and test out the connections.

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I think the reason they want to catch it is to save weight on the landing legs and because they don't need to do a suicide burn.

Will the first SLS flight be a test or with cargo and/or humans? It just seems like such a waste given what SpaceX has accomplished.

I've also been wondering if SH will have a midflight abort safety feature like Dragon does?

mwp02ag said:

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Will the first SLS flight be a test or with cargo and/or humans? It just seems like such a waste given what SpaceX has accomplished.

I've also been wondering if SH will have a midflight abort safety feature like Dragon does?

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It'll be the first test will have neither cargo nor humans. The second will have cargo, the third will fly Orion around the moon, the fourth will have humans on it.

I thought the first (the one they're stacking now) was sending Orion around the moon, sans humans.

You could be right, I've been wrong before once about a decade ago.

mwp02ag said:

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Will the first SLS flight be a test or with cargo and/or humans? It just seems like such a waste given what SpaceX has accomplished.

I've also been wondering if SH will have a midflight abort safety feature like Dragon does?

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SH does not have an abort system.

I think double aught is right, timeline I saw a week or two ago had Artemis I going empty around the moon and Artemis III being the first manned flight.

That's my understanding as well. Basically they're going to waste the money for two Orion Capsule missions before ditching the whole system for Starship because the politicians have promised to grease the palms of their legacy military industrial complex friends.

That's the political beauty and budgetary terror of Artemis, it funds jobs in all 50 states.

Looking like a scrub for SN15 today.

No evacuation needed as it’s a scrub for Starship SN15 launch today. #WenHop continues! 🔥🚀🔥@NASASpaceflight

— Mary (@BocaChicaGal) May 4, 2021

So is SN15 launching today or what?

Scrubbed before the window even opened. I wonder if there's an issue, or if they're just being super cautious on this one?

Status check for a Starship SN15 launch on Wednesday:
- FAA approval ✅
- Temporary Flight Restriction ✅
- Village Evacuation Notice 🟡
- Marine hazard zone posted ✅
- Road closure scheduled ✅
- Official confirmation from SpaceX 🟡

4 down, 2 to gohttps://t.co/Rl0cyUwxQy

— Michael Baylor (@nextspaceflight) May 4, 2021

Quote:

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Don't underestimate them. They got 1.4 billion people. Some of those people are sharp as hell.

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R&D doesn't have a whole lot to do with being especially smart (doesn't hurt) compared to the culture. You need a culture that not only isn't afraid of failure but celebrates it. No one likes to say "I don't know" or "Boy, I messed up" in China.

FarmerJohn said:

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Quote:

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Don't underestimate them. They got 1.4 billion people. Some of those people are sharp as hell.

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R&D doesn't have a whole lot to do with being especially smart (doesn't hurt) compared to the culture. You need a culture that not only isn't afraid of failure but celebrates it. No one likes to say "I don't know" or "Boy, I messed up" in China.

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They sure don't seem to mind saying "I have no idea where that booster stage is going to land!"

NASA is now trying to figure it out

T-1Hour till Starlink-25

I know we all wanted a Starship hop today but we'll just have to settle for the amazingness of a launch and landing of a Falcon 9.

Successful launch and landing. Pretty close to routine with these now.

😅 pic.twitter.com/LCK9IySxzf

— Michael Baylor (@nextspaceflight) May 4, 2021

Only limitation is high density of users in urban areas. Most likely, all of the initial 500k will receive service. More of a challenge when we get into the several million user range.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 4, 2021

PJYoung said:

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Only limitation is high density of users in urban areas. Most likely, all of the initial 500k will receive service. More of a challenge when we get into the several million user range.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 4, 2021

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Count me as one of the 500k

Looks like 20 mph winds with gusts of 30+ this morning. I don't see 'em launching in that.

I think it's supposed to be better this afternoon. Notice said window starts at noon.

https://twitter.com/RGVaerialphotos/status/1389618859389374468?



I think they've re-chained (?) the upper flaps in the wind but haven't done so on the lower ones. Let's see what happens this afternoon.

It should clear off a little late this afternoon as well. And yes, the surface winds are forecast to back off after 3pm.

Yesterday's scrub was for high winds aloft.

Sheriff deputies just headed to the beach to begin clearing the area. All indications are that SpaceX is pressing forward with a Starship SN15 launch attempt today.

LIVE: https://t.co/Zgriapc0JC pic.twitter.com/fHE32JBdfm

— Michael Baylor (@nextspaceflight) May 5, 2021

Thunderstorm/rain forecast dropping.

https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/f5304e995e1887223be91cce8a20b6b6605d76a14b6ab3312f1fce527db2b9cc

PJYoung said:

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It should clear off a little late this afternoon as well. And yes, the surface winds are forecast to back off after 3pm.

Yesterday's scrub was for high winds aloft.

Sheriff deputies just headed to the beach to begin clearing the area. All indications are that SpaceX is pressing forward with a Starship SN15 launch attempt today.

LIVE: https://t.co/Zgriapc0JC pic.twitter.com/fHE32JBdfm

— Michael Baylor (@nextspaceflight) May 5, 2021

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Word on the street is that yesterday's scrub was a wire harness issue..

scottimus said:

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PJYoung said:

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It should clear off a little late this afternoon as well. And yes, the surface winds are forecast to back off after 3pm.

Yesterday's scrub was for high winds aloft.

Sheriff deputies just headed to the beach to begin clearing the area. All indications are that SpaceX is pressing forward with a Starship SN15 launch attempt today.

LIVE: https://t.co/Zgriapc0JC pic.twitter.com/fHE32JBdfm

— Michael Baylor (@nextspaceflight) May 5, 2021

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Word on the street is that yesterday's scrub was a wire harness issue..

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Ah I was just going off of what Mary Boca Chica said in one of her tweets from YESTERDAY:

SN15 Scrubbed. Winds aloft. @spacex folks are so polite. It tickles me to know how ever busy, they have a person alerting us with updates. Thanks @elonmusk for all the details on a scheduled 2 launch busy day. Didn’t Mama Grimes launch your precious cargo just 1 year ago? HBBX pic.twitter.com/PlXUSHOLNw

— Maria Pointer Nav Officer/SeaPilot (ret.) (@BocachicaMaria1) May 4, 2021

I still wonder what they're going to do if they land one of these test machines. The legs aren't really reusable as currently configured, I wonder if they'll just scrap them.

bthotugigem05 said:

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I still wonder what they're going to do if they land one of these test machines. The legs aren't really reusable as currently configured, I wonder if they'll just scrap them.

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I think the popular guess is that the first one will probably be scrapped just so they can inspect every single inch to see how it fared, but I think they can probably do most of that without tearing it apart. And just eyeballing it, I'd bet you could change out legs on the suborbital stands.

BTW, I'm watching the NSF feed, and my God some of the questions...I get that there are a lot of people new to spaceflight getting drawn in by the SpaceX excitement, but merciful heavens some of them are just so obvious that I want to scream...